• Home ::
• Technical ::
• Market View ::
• Market Session Recaps

• Send
• Print
• Add To
• Rss

Market Session Recaps

5fb09dbb-0265-4c6f-bd07-bbd9871fdba4

0

0

London Session

Thu, Sep 4 2008, 12:36 GMT
by Forex.com Research Desk

FOREX.com

Weak Euro-zone data battled higher oil prices in the London session in terms of dictating the pace for the USD.  This led to an overall mixed session for the buck against the majors.  French unemployment ranks rose 19K in 2Q after dipping a sharp -82K the prior quarter.  Meanwhile, German factory orders plunged -1.7% in July after a -2.6% print the prior month and has now declined for eight consecutive months.  The weak data nudged EUR/USD about -15 points lower from the session open to a close near the 1.4470 area.  Positioning ahead of the ECB rate decision and statement limited any major moves here.

Oil was bid in London trading as Hurricane Ike strengthened in the Atlantic to a category 4 storm.  The commodity opened near $109.25/bbl and was sitting about $1 higher at the close after running up towards a session high near $110.60/bbl.  This sudden uptick helped send USD/CAD markedly lower towards a session low near 1.0550, though the pair would eventually close the session up about 15 pips from where it opened towards the 1.0630 mark.

The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged at 4.25% in the early NY session and now the market awaits the press statement at 1230GMT.  Recent comments from ECB member Axel Weber that a rate cut is currently premature are likely to resonate in Trichet's post rate decision comments. That said Trichet will also have to acknowledge that economic growth has clearly slowed with 2Q GDP printing negative and paltry July retail sales -- which plunged -0.4% after slipping -0.9% prior -- suggesting no speedy recovery in 3Q.

While likely to be similar to the prior press statement which harped on inflation worries and downgraded growth slightly, we would expect a potential bounce in EUR/USD if Trichet suggests rate cuts are out of the question. In this case we would look to sell post-Trichet EUR bounces as reality sinks in that the Euro-zone economy remains on shaky ground.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session):

• 9/4        12:15GMT         US        ADP Employment Change         AUG                  9K               -30K
• 9/4        12:30GMT         US        Nonfarm Productivity     2Q F                               2.20% 3.50%
• 9/4        12:30GMT         US        Unit Labor Costs           2Q F                             1.30%   0.00%
• 9/4        12:30GMT         US        Initial Jobless Claims     30-Aug                             425K  420K
• 9/4        14:00GMT         US        ISM Non-Manf. Composite         AUG                      49.5        49.5
• 9/4        15:00GMT         US        DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories  29-Aug    -3502K    450K
• 9/4        15:00GMT         US        DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories  29-Aug     -1179K   -1300K
• 9/4                                US        ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY      AUG                      2.60%          - -
• 9/4        17:40GMT         US        Fed's Fisher Speaks in Houston on U.S. Economic Challenges
• 9/4        18:30GMT         US        Fed's Yellen Speaks in Salt Lake City on U.S. Economy   

Published on  Thu, Sep 4 2008, 12:37 GMT