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Market Session Recaps
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London Session
Thu, Aug 7 2008, 13:57 GMT
by Forex.com Research Desk
The buck was modestly lower against the majors in the London session. Data out of the Euro-zone did not disappoint for a change, with the German trade balance coming in at a slightly better than expected 19.7B in June after a 14.3B print the prior month. German industrial production was a touch weaker for June at 0.2%, but the prior month was revised up to -1.8% from -2.4% and this took the annual rate to a higher than expected 1.7%. The better than expected data helped prop up EURUSD a touch from an open near 1.5440 to a close around the 1.5465 mark.
UK data did, however, manage to disappoint once again. HBOS home prices for July fell a sharper than expected -1.7% after a -1.9% result the previous month. GBPUSD was little changed overall in London trading as participants awaited the BOE's rate decision at the session close. The BOE left rates unchanged at 5.00% as expected and it turned out to be a non-event given that no press statement is released when the bank makes no change to rates. GBPUSD closed the session near 1.9510 after opening around the 1.9490 mark.
The market now turns its focus squarely on the ECB rate decision due up at 1145GMT/0745ET. The ECB will issue a statement, with Trichet answering questions at the 1230GMT/0830ET ECB press conference. We expect Trichet to acknowledge the sharp deterioration in the European growth outlook, but also retain a hawkish tone on inflation and indicate that current rates are appropriate, suggesting interest rates are on hold for the foreseeable future.
We would hope that hawkish inflation talk might provide a bounce in EURUSD to sell on, but even that may not materialize. The risks are that Trichet softens the inflation rhetoric alongside the weaker economic outlook and EURUSD keeps moving directly south.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session):
- 8/7/2008 11:45 GMT EC ECB Announces Interest Rates 7-Aug 4.25% 4.25%
- 8/7/2008 12:30 GMT CA Building Permits MoM JUN 1.10% -1.00%
- 8/7/2008 12:30 GMT US Initial Jobless Claims 2-Aug 448K 420K
- 8/7/2008 12:30 GMT US Continuing Claims 26-Jul 3282K 3250K
- 8/7/2008 12:30 GMT EC Trichet Speaks at ECB Monthly News Conference
- 8/7/2008 14:00 GMT US Pending Home Sales MoM JUN -4.70% -1.00%
- 8/7/2008 US ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY JUL 4.30% - -
- 8/7/2008 19:00 GMT US Consumer Credit JUN $7.8B $6.5B
Published on Thu, Aug 7 2008, 13:59 GMT
Archive
- New York Session
Published On Tue, Dec 2 2008, 22:13 GMT - London Session
Published On Tue, Dec 2 2008, 13:13 GMT - Asia Session
Published On Tue, Dec 2 2008, 07:41 GMT - New York Session
Published On Mon, Dec 1 2008, 22:28 GMT - London Session
Published On Mon, Dec 1 2008, 13:18 GMT
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