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Market Session Recaps

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London Session

Tue, Aug 5 2008, 13:41 GMT
by Forex.com Research Desk

FOREX.com


The buck continued to add to its gains in the London session against most of the majors, helped by further collapsing oil prices and another batch of weak European economic data.  The Euro-zone PMI composite final release for July was steady at 48.3 but retail sales for June fell to a weaker than expected -3.1% annual rate after a downwardly revised -0.1% run-rate in May.  Meanwhile, UK industrial production was also worse than expected and slipped to a -1.6% annual rate after a similar run-rate the prior month.  Thus the deteriorating economic data across the pond continues.

Oil prices helped the greenback as well, plummeting to a low of $118/bbl after opening the session near $120.50/bbl.  The commodity continues to get crunched by slowing demand.  The fact that Tropical Storm Edouard is seemingly less threatening now helped as well.  EUR/USD slipped further, from an open near 1.5535 to close around the 1.5495 mark.  Sterling (GBP/USD) also lost ground, closing near 1.9550 after an open near 1.9605.  USD/CAD traded sideways for nearly the entire session, but held on to gains from the Asia session, closing near 1.0420 after an open near 1.0415.

The highlight in the NY session is obviously the FOMC rate decision due up at 1815GMT/1415ET.  The market looks for no change to the policy rate of 2.0% and we concur that rates will remain steady.  The statement will be the focus as the market will attempt to digest how the Fed views the risks to growth and inflation.  Again, the risk is that the Fed highlights renewed downside to the US outlook, reigniting fears of a US recession still to come. We continue to favor buying USD on dips, as slowing global growth is undermining demand for commodities and reducing overall USD selling interest.
 

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session):

  • 8/5/2008 14:00 GMT US ISM Non-Manf. Composite JUL                 48.2          48.5
  • 8/5/2008 18:15 GMT US FOMC Rate Decision 5-Aug                     2.00%      2.00%

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