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Market Session Recaps

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New York Session

Mon, Aug 4 2008, 23:18 GMT
by Forex.com Research Desk

FOREX.com


The greenback was bid in the NY session as better than expected US economic data and a sharp decline in oil prices helped take the buck higher.  Oil fell below $120/bbl for the first time since early May and closed the session down about -$4 near $121.10/bbl.

Meanwhile US personal income, spending, and core PCE were all above expected.  Spending rose 0.6% for June while income rose a modest 0.1% for the month.  Both were well above the expected 0.4% and -0.1% prints, respectively.  Also core PCE prices rose to 2.3%, above the 2.2% expected and now well above the Fed's 1-2% comfort zone -- likely keeping the Fed in play in 2008 for now.

EUR/USD opened the session near 1.5590 and was sitting modestly lower towards the session close around 1.5575.  GBP/USD got hit a little harder, falling towards 1.9625 from an open near 1.9680.  Lower oil prices took USD/CAD firmly above the 1.0300 mark finally, with the pair closing near the 1.0365 level after opening near 1.0305.

All eyes are now focused on tomorrow's FOMC rate decision.  We expect the Fed to stay on hold at 2.0%, which is also the consensus market expectation. The FOMC statement is likely to retain much of the same language as the June statement, so this may turn into a non-event. But the risk is that the Fed highlights renewed downside risks to the US outlook, reigniting fears of a US recession still to come. We continue to favor buying USD on dips, as slowing global growth is undermining demand for commodities and reducing overall USD selling interest.  Stay tuned!
 

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session):

  • 8/5/2008 3:00 GMT NZ ANZ Commodity Price JUL                          0.00%          - -
  • 8/5/2008 4:30 GMT AU RBA CASH TARGET 6-Aug                        7.25%        7.25%

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