Wed, Jul 2 2008, 22:15 GMT
by Forex.com Research Desk
Record high oil prices, stumbling US stocks, lower yields and a poor batch of employment data led to a selloff in the greenback of more than 75 pips on average against the majors in NY trading. Oil prices hit a new record by breaching the $144/bbl mark and this helped fuel the selling in stocks, with the Dow plunging 167 points in the session.
US employment data ahead of tomorrow's critical NFP report were on the weak side and did not help matters for the buck. Challenger layoffs for June rose 46.7% from a year ago after being up 45.6% the previous month. Meanwhile, the ADP employment report showed a sharper than expected -79k decline in June after a downwardly revised +25k prior. These data points do not bode well for tomorrow's NFP number and suggest the -60k decline expected by the market is a tad optimistic.
EUR/USD rallied one big figure, opening the session near 1.5780 and closing around the 1.5880 mark. Thus EUR/USD managed a daily close above 1.5800 for the first time since late April. The ECB rate decision and the US NFP report will provide more price action to the pair tomorrow, with 1.6000 not out of reach if the ECB comes out hawkish and NFP disappoints in a big way.
USD/JPY declined as US yields tumbled on the weak economic data. The 2-year note yield fell 9 bps to 2.58% while the 10-year shed 6 bps to 3.96% in NY trading. USD/JPY opened near 106.70 after a great London session, and it would end the day near the 105.90 mark. A disappointing NFP report tomorrow and a hawkish ECB will exacerbate losses in the US stock market and take yields lower. On this, a sharp move lower in USD/JPY would follow.
Loonie (USD/CAD) sold off as the increase in oil prices helped catapult CAD. USD/CAD opened the session near 1.0212 and would grind down to a close near 1.0120 in the end. Lower than expected oil inventories stoked a rally in oil prices and this helped CAD extend gains.
Published on Wed, Jul 2 2008, 22:16 GMT
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