Morning Briefing : 19-Mar-2010 - 0336 GMT


GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US Markets were up yesterday after reports that manufacturing accelerated this month and fewer Americans filed for jobless benefits. The Dow (10779.17) was up 0.42% and the Nasdaq (2391.28) was up 0.9%. The Dow has been moving up steadily and we continue to hold our view of an up move towards 11000-250 on the Dow in the coming weeks.

The Asian Equities are mixed today. The Nikkei (10815.52, up 0.67%) looks strong and we may see a rise towards 11000-250 in the next few weeks. The Shanghai (3031.776, down 0.47%) is looking mixed and may be ranged between 2975 on the downside and 3100 on the upside before a breakout on either side is visible. The HangSeng (21279.29) is down 0.24%. In India, the Sensex (17519.26) was up 0.15% and the Nifty (5245.90) was up 0.27% yesterday after the S&P upgraded India's sovereign credit rating to stable from negative. The Sensex closed just above the important Resistance level at 17500 and may rise towards 17750-800 in the coming sessions.

COMMODITIES
Crude (81.92) fell yesterday failing to continue with its upmove. The stronger dollar pulled down the price. Crude is not able to see a strong break above 82.50, although it is continuing to trade above 80 since last week. 83.95 the previous high (11-Jan-10) is a significant level to watch for on the upside a strong break above which might see 85.50. On the downside Support is seen at 80-79 region.

Gold (1123.50) is continuing to retain the range 1100-50 and is oscillating near the middle of the range over the last couple of days. As mentioned earlier 1100 is a very crucial Support level to watch for.


CURRENCIES
Decent recovery in the US Dollar, in line with our broad expectations, as the Greek Tragedy comes back into the limelight. The Euro (1.3620) fell to a low near 1.3586 yesterday and looks set to dip further to about 1.3535 today. It has pulled the Euro-Yen (123.20) lower from the high near 125 on Wednesday. A further dip towards 122.00 looks likely. Dollar-Yen (90.45) continues to trade a sideways range of 89.80-90.70, within a larger downtrend.

The Pound (1.5240) has come off a bit from Friday's high near 1.5382, but might find Support near 1.5140 today, within overall chances of further rise next week. Dollar-Swiss (1.0675) has rallied strongly alongwith the fall in the Euro and should be good for 1.08 next week. The Aussie (0.9210) seems to be tiring a bit after its strong rise from the 05-Feb low of 0.8578. Resistance is seen in the 0.9250-9300.

Asian currencies have weakened a bit. Dollar-Won trades near 1132, but remains in an overall sideways range. Importantly, USD-SGD has moved up to 1.3951 from Wednesday's low near 1.3910. We see good chances of further weakening of the Sing Dollar towards 1.4050 in the coming days. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 45.44 yesterday after an intra-day rally to 45.53. We continue to see favour the upside, with good Support being available at 45.20. In the larger perspective, the fall from the Mar-09 high near 52.20 seems to be slowing down.

INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was raised by 1 bp and was quoted at 0.27% yesterday. The yields on US Treasuries have risen slightly yesterday. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 3 bps each and quoted at 0.95% and 3.67% respectively. Modest inflation in the US and Greek debt concerns may keep the US Treasury yields pressured in the near term.

DATA TODAY
11:00 GMT CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Previous 2.0%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/cacpi.shtml


DATA YESTERDAY
EU Trade Bal
...Actual 8.9 Bln...Previous 4.1 Bln

US Feb Core CPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.1%...Previous -0.1%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/uscpi.shtml

Feb US Philifed Index
...Actual 18.9...Previous 17.6

US Current Account Balance
...Actual $ -116 Bln...Previous $ -102 Bln