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EURUSD flirting near 150 & Crude Oil dilly−dallied near $100/bl

Sun, Nov 25 2007, 20:11 GMT
by Anthony Samaha

ForexSurvivor

• ForexSurvivor Weekly Newsletter 23 - 30 Nov

Forex Department

EURUSD flirting near 150, on hold towards 160 by year end of course.

High Oil Price = Negative Trading Balance = Dollar Weakness

I Wonder: Why Asia sessions almost always register psychological prices?

Enjoy reading few statements that have been presented by Americans using ‘Strong Dollar Policy:’ either we belong or they belong to the Simpleton Avenue. (I esteem Simpleton wording, whereas my mother language nay English, would sound a definition correlated to ‘Simple’ and not ‘Idiot!’).

1. CAPE TOWN, Nov 16 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Friday Washington was following a strong dollar policy and indicated he expected it to rebound, emphasising the U.S. economy's long-term strength should help the currency.

2. London - among Treasury Secretary John Snow’s bromides: he persisted in discussing the strong dollar policy while the greenback was plummeting and is today.

3. The Bush administration, eager for anything that could help reduce unemployment before next year's elections, has all but abandoned the strong-dollar policy of the Clinton administration and pressured Asian countries to let their currencies appreciate against the greenback.

4. Trichet underscored US strong dollar policy on Oct 01, 2007, at no vain up to this writing.

5. Oil, finance and foreign ministers of OPEC met the weekend against the backdrop of a depreciating dollar and tension in world oil markets. In a closed session of foreign and finance ministers, Saudi Arabia, a close US ally, objected to a bid by Iran and Venezuela to highlight concern over the weakness of the US dollar. The group voted the proposal out.

Brief:              In analyzing the concepts of major politicians or Feds (who probably do nothing but launching intriguing unethical trading messages and can’t change the base of the planet where  1 + 1 = 2, and that in turn is strongly translated onto: High Oil Price = Negative Trading Balance = Dollar Weakness). Strong Dollar Policy is gibberish and will not be valid as long as Mr. Bush is running office. EURUSD may have the same strength as CAD did but will not have the same speedy correction in 2007; you have been warned!

Non-Forex Department

Crude Oil dilly-dallied near $100/bl

Main reasons for US invading Iraq & reasons to manoeuvre a futuristic strike against Iran are all about shifting dollars onto euros. Saddam Hussein issued a law in 2000 to cancel debiting Oil account in dollar and rather switched to euro. If invasion analysis is mal interpreted, then why the US in 2003 and in the middle of a war set up as an initial strategic plan a Central Bank in Iraq? I do not believe the real reason that the US attacked Iraq was of WMD; and Iran’s threat of developing “nuclear capabilities” is likewise propaganda.

The real intent behind all these veils is the dollar’s monopoly on international oil trading, along with the New World Order’s plan to reshape the global economic system. Will dollar survive, or will it tank in the near future? Gulf countries started unpegging their currencies from the dollar philosophy, and UAE is about to in the very near interval, indication of further dollar weakness and higher Oil price.

OPEC met last weekend and the unexpected conclusions that I may coincide with my 2008 year target that was set 2 months ago @ $200/bl & $500/bl afterwards: (check newsletter). Two serious comments were made and one country set the next target during the summit:

Comment No.1                      Iran said that Crude Oil price is still cheap

Comment No.2:                    OPEC concluded that prices are still fair

Comment No.3:                    Venezuela targeted $200/bl in case war plan is absolute

Notwithstanding crude oil is regarded as cheap by the third world major export country (Iran), and no complain about high price elasticity from OPEC, both comments led the target to be identified @ $200/bl within 2008 by Venezuela through a war plan being the manoeuvrability  driving force.

Free FX Trade

Previous GBPUSD Limit @ 20930 is Valid (09 Nov)

EURAUD Free Trade of 30 pips.

23 Nov Spot Trade                                       

Currency:                              EURAUD                               

Trade Objective:                  Against Correction follower

Chart:                                     Daily                           

Trade Entry Validation:                  23 Nov - 23 Dec                    

Trade Volatility:                   Medium                      

Trade duration once filled:  min 1 Hr, max 10 days                    

Trade Selectivity:                 Buy Side Only                       

Spread Consideration:                     Set the trade as it is below in its exact form

Before you trade note:                     N/A

Long 16950 target 30pips exact @ 16980

Enjoy Euro Cross Trade.

Contact us for support in case we are stuck with the position

Anthony Samaha

Trading Engineer

*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

Published on  Sun, Nov 25 2007, 20:13 GMT