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Weekly Forex Signals and News

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ForexSurvivor Weekly Newsletter (Forex & Non−Forex Behaviour).

Mon, Aug 6 2007, 05:39 GMT
by Anthony Samaha

ForexSurvivor

Forex Department

A.        Yen Gains on the ‘losing game’ again within next week data

B.        There is no balance anymore among dollar currencies (hedging).

C.        During Turmoil market, how ForexSurvivor trades without stoploss? AUDNZD hint!

Yen gains were formidable this week and the entire credence story is about ‘correction 2007 trend;’ no other justifications are tolerable, especially BOJ has not intervened. Next week data continues to underpin yen crosses to at least first initial targets (50% Fibo); yen crosses have fallen onto a start-consolidation mode for August - Dollar ForexSurvivor Long Term Target is 130 & 150 along the run versus Yen.

In the past and probably still, dollar currencies were traded in a hedging manner to narrow maximization losses. For example, when a trade was long on the eurusd, another trade was hedged being short usdchf (or eurusd vs. gbpusd). The current trading atmosphere has changed, and that has nothing to do with the depleted ozone layers, but rather with the depletion of hedging-trend. Well noted this year is the trend between gbpusd and eurusd. If you are short euro and long pound, it pays (only if you stayed long pound above the psycho level 2.0000 – which I doubt since the market was convincingly short the 19800 band); but if you are long euro and short pound, dollar depletion takes also a major concern since euro trend so far this year is very short in relative to pound trend length. Recap: balancing dollar currencies between/among themselves is not a first-class strategy.

How ForexSurvivor trades during turmoil?

(Ref: AUDNZD Table Below) It is worth presenting what happened to ForexSurvivor currency signal during stock market mayhem that took place last week, and originated the whole market to speed controversial rallies.

In a calm atmosphere, we were short audnzd @10925 (starting point: level I which is equal to 1 lot/contract), and when the storm lifted the price towards 11145 using the deterioration of the stock market, we close the trade with -220pips. At the same time, ForexSurvivor Octopus formula signalled a full position reversal, where we bought full permitted lots/contracts (i.e. Level I, II, III equivalent to 1, 1.5, 2 lots/contracts respectively or a total of 4.5 lots/contracts) at 11145. The first endeavour signal was closed with +193.5pips, to end with another full signal +112.5pips, achieving net profit of +86pips. This is one of the ways why stoploss is of no need when trading with ForexSurvivor only. We use no stoploss but our signal is reversible in the end. This is what we call a turmoil -27pips loss (-220pips vs. +193pips) or +86pips profit as a whole.

What is the story behind audnzd trade? Each currency has its own unique behaviour, and unless you trade with ForexSurvivor Octopus Formula (especially during turmoil) I bet you run under severe hassle conditions each time you are challenged with an abrupt correction or spike. It is worth noting that audnzd new high above our closing trade wasn’t achieved the whole week (and till this time of writing at 14:00 GMT Friday) as we were squeezing the currency to the top.

A.                 Last week 08pips trade was not triggered: EURUSD short 13608 – Remove.

B.                 New Weekly Free Concrete 08pips trade: USDCAD Short 10427 or Long 10700.

Non-Forex Department

What is the event needed for Crude Oil to have a hit @ $106.5/bl?

To have Crude Oil listed over $100/bl, events’ list is unlimited and comprises hurricane, terrorist (pipeline) organized operations, deficiency in supply-demand OPEC curve, etc… my standpoint illustrates that I pay close attention to what is happening with the political US-Iran relation, and where such relation has been my only factor that drives up my Crude Oil prices.

For now, I can be of concern that none of the events mentioned have taken place and price was lifted almost $10/bl since my ‘in-place perfectives’ warnings were jotted down. Imagine if any of the events would take place, then wouldn’t be enough to be convinced that ForexSurvivor First Crude Oil Target @ $106.5/bl would be screened in the near term? For now, I barely believe that such events are needed to hit the $106.5/bl bullseye.

The strongest warning from Mr. Bush administration was released yesterday: ‘US Economy is in danger zone with high Oil prices.’ It seems pointing to the approach of the psycho price @ $80/bl target then my first target @ $106.5/bl - Should we get worried about trending Crude Oil up? Of course not! It is the same remark when Bush administration passes remarks that the US dollar is strong and strong as ever and the synopsis: dollar index arrowing a fine down trend. However, the target might be delayed a bit.

A.                 Mission of last week 25pips trade incomplete but valid – stay tune (Gold: Long 695.20).

B.                 New: Weekly Free Concrete 25 pips trade: Crude Oil: Long 80.00$.bl -this is a psychological price, but who cares?

Equities Tumble has been awaited

Topsy-turvy equities are of no concern to ForexSurvivor Trade Signals & redressing has been 2-months awaited. Bull theme has to wait a bit before registering unprecedented fertile developments. For example, ForexSurvivor S&P Long Term target is @ 1,900 and along the course I will develop a reasonable strategic plan so to have my target achieved as usual.

What is comical about equities’ strategists?

When equity market was fully bullish, the fundamental salutation you could read or hear: Shanghai Composite Index is at the highest and that is driving perpendicularly the stock market.

Since the start of equity correction, that index has no commentators and most probably because strategists can not balance the previous reasons to nowadays reason: Shanghai composite is achieving still new high waves especially after equities tumble.

A confusion conclusion is always what researchers should present, and ForexSurvivor way of living is to survive researchers’ mines without being exploded one time. For the sake of trading at ease with ForexSurvivor Octopus Formula, I will keep my challenging trading behaviour to a narrow hidden band & with a slight pause.

New: Weekly Free Concrete 12 pips trade: Short FTSE 6237 Target 6225

Down The hill Signal: This week GBPCHF drove us through a well shaped U-turn that ended almost with a spread loss, & that small negative impact has been recovered by interest rate charges. As for Equity, we have no worth comments to announce as we are waiting for the storm to challenge another planet. Gold is having the lull some version for now, and the price is working the daily uptrend line very cautiously. Would we have a $10 decrease (absorbing hungrily stops) before major up trend continues?

Notification: AUDNZD (+112.5pips) is not an Executive or Best Performer as it was related more to the Surviving method of the previous audnzd trades during equity turmoil.

Benchmark Supreme Investment

ForexSurvivor Weekly Newsletter dated 08 June 2007 released ‘Double ROI Petition.’ The account started on 23 July. We will post the percentage return in the end of each week till 20 Dec 2007. Recap: Return on Investment of $500M equals 13.42% up to Friday closing.

Anthony Samaha

Trading Engineer

*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

Published on  Mon, Aug 6 2007, 05:41 GMT