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Weekly Forex Signals and News
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ForexSurvivor Weekly Weekend Newsletter 29 June
Sun, Jun 29 2008, 20:08 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
ForexSurvivor
Always in the market signalling 40 different currencies with spread less than 35pips, 10 Equities, Crude Oil, & Gold.Attached is ForexSurvivor Weekly Weekend Newsletter
Published on Sun, Jun 29 2008, 20:08 GMT
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ForexSurvivor Weekly Weekend Newsletter 16 May
Sun, May 18 2008, 19:32 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Please Find attached ForexSurvivor Weekly Weekend Newsletter
Warmth Regards
Anthony Samaha
Published on Sun, May 18 2008, 19:32 GMT
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What is the missing factor between Technical & Fundamental?
Mon, May 5 2008, 07:13 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Please Find attached ForexSurvivor Weekly Weekend Newsletter
Trading Engineer
Anthony Samaha
www.forexsurvivor.net
This is to announce that ForexSurvivor.com will be versioned under ForexSurvivor.net within a new environment within 15days. We are no longer responsible for any news or information regarding forexsurvivor.com, and everything is shifted to www.forexsurvivor.net
Contact us: support@forexsurvivor.net
Published on Mon, May 5 2008, 07:13 GMT
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Euro−Bund: Keep the Bund Bungee−Jumping
Sun, Apr 27 2008, 18:14 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Please find attached ForexSurvivor Weekly Weekend Newsletter.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Sun, Apr 27 2008, 18:14 GMT
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Weekly Newsletter: EURUSD Long Term Target Set @ 2.0000
Mon, Apr 21 2008, 05:37 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Please find attached ForexSurvivor Weekly Weekend Newsletter.
Published on Mon, Apr 21 2008, 05:37 GMT
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Weekly Weekend Newsletter
Mon, Apr 14 2008, 09:06 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Weekly Weekend Newsletter attached.
Published on Mon, Apr 14 2008, 09:06 GMT
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EURUSD flirting near 150 & Crude Oil dilly−dallied near $100/bl
Sun, Nov 25 2007, 20:11 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
EURUSD flirting near 150, on hold towards 160 by year end of course.
High Oil Price = Negative Trading Balance = Dollar Weakness
I Wonder: Why Asia sessions almost always register psychological prices?
Enjoy reading few statements that have been presented by Americans using ‘Strong Dollar Policy:’ either we belong or they belong to the Simpleton Avenue. (I esteem Simpleton wording, whereas my mother language nay English, would sound a definition correlated to ‘Simple’ and not ‘Idiot!’).
- CAPE TOWN, Nov 16 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Friday Washington was following a strong dollar policy and indicated he expected it to rebound, emphasising the U.S. economy's long-term strength should help the currency.
- London - among Treasury Secretary John Snow’s bromides: he persisted in discussing the strong dollar policy while the greenback was plummeting and is today.
- The Bush administration, eager for anything that could help reduce unemployment before next year's elections, has all but abandoned the strong-dollar policy of the Clinton administration and pressured Asian countries to let their currencies appreciate against the greenback.
- Trichet underscored US strong dollar policy on Oct 01, 2007, at no vain up to this writing.
- Oil, finance and foreign ministers of OPEC met the weekend against the backdrop of a depreciating dollar and tension in world oil markets. In a closed session of foreign and finance ministers, Saudi Arabia, a close US ally, objected to a bid by Iran and Venezuela to highlight concern over the weakness of the US dollar. The group voted the proposal out.
Brief: In analyzing the concepts of major politicians or Feds (who probably do nothing but launching intriguing unethical trading messages and can’t change the base of the planet where 1 + 1 = 2, and that in turn is strongly translated onto: High Oil Price = Negative Trading Balance = Dollar Weakness). Strong Dollar Policy is gibberish and will not be valid as long as Mr. Bush is running office. EURUSD may have the same strength as CAD did but will not have the same speedy correction in 2007; you have been warned!
Non-Forex Department
Crude Oil dilly-dallied near $100/bl
Main reasons for US invading Iraq & reasons to manoeuvre a futuristic strike against Iran are all about shifting dollars onto euros. Saddam Hussein issued a law in 2000 to cancel debiting Oil account in dollar and rather switched to euro. If invasion analysis is mal interpreted, then why the US in 2003 and in the middle of a war set up as an initial strategic plan a Central Bank in Iraq? I do not believe the real reason that the US attacked Iraq was of WMD; and Iran’s threat of developing “nuclear capabilities” is likewise propaganda.
The real intent behind all these veils is the dollar’s monopoly on international oil trading, along with the New World Order’s plan to reshape the global economic system. Will dollar survive, or will it tank in the near future? Gulf countries started unpegging their currencies from the dollar philosophy, and UAE is about to in the very near interval, indication of further dollar weakness and higher Oil price.
OPEC met last weekend and the unexpected conclusions that I may coincide with my 2008 year target that was set 2 months ago @ $200/bl & $500/bl afterwards: (check newsletter). Two serious comments were made and one country set the next target during the summit:
Comment No.1 Iran said that Crude Oil price is still cheap
Comment No.2: OPEC concluded that prices are still fair
Comment No.3: Venezuela targeted $200/bl in case war plan is absolute
Notwithstanding crude oil is regarded as cheap by the third world major export country (Iran), and no complain about high price elasticity from OPEC, both comments led the target to be identified @ $200/bl within 2008 by Venezuela through a war plan being the manoeuvrability driving force.
Free FX Trade
Previous GBPUSD Limit @ 20930 is Valid (09 Nov)
EURAUD Free Trade of 30 pips.
23 Nov Spot Trade
Currency: EURAUD
Trade Objective: Against Correction follower
Chart: Daily
Trade Entry Validation: 23 Nov - 23 Dec
Trade Volatility: Medium
Trade duration once filled: min 1 Hr, max 10 days
Trade Selectivity: Buy Side Only
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Before you trade note: N/A
Long 16950 target 30pips exact @ 16980
Enjoy Euro Cross Trade.
Contact us for support in case we are stuck with the position
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Sun, Nov 25 2007, 20:11 GMT
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Valerian has been Urged for Yen crosses
Mon, Nov 19 2007, 06:37 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Valerian has been Urged for Yen crosses
100pips a day has no more meaning anymore…
I was looking at the right monograph that describes best the Mon-Tue- Wed murky Yen crosses that is beyond my major knowledge, Valerian proved to be the right idiosyncrasy medicinal for such lurk moves. Valerian is a tallish plant blooming June to July (isn’t it when we had the start of the crunching market?) is used for hysteria, panic attacks, emotional stress, etc... Those are some of the properties that fit best yen-crosses fuzzy manner for this week. GBPJPY captioned almost winkingly 1300pips to recover 750pips at the beginning of the week; notwithstanding, it was the right moment when I warned ahead of time about hefty price action of trading 500pips a day to balance almost 100pips and to strategize your account accordingly. Why such powerful price yen action? Everything being expensive and for further rise, from agriculture products, transportation, gold, crude oil and the list of etc…why not the Yen move becoming spacey to afford interest rate BOE support maintenance? Be careful, high volatility increases towards year end along with low volume and more Valerian should be media-worldwide launched for yen market’s topsy-turvy actions.
For the sake of my analysis, I am not promoting any pharmaceutical drug (Valerian), warning I have clarified!
USDCAD is reacting well in a consolidation phase lately, after long lashing drop. Such consolidation needs weeks to get over, and any dip is a buy where a sell should be preventable. Final dip is when Crude Oil hits the $100/bl or when it hits ForexSurvivor Long Term target@ $106.5 where usdcad might register 8500 by year end to mid February 2008 with a slow pace!
Non-Forex Department
EQUITIES bearishness is not a bear trend for year end!
No changes in the view from previous week:
(09 Nov Newsletter) What happened this week was predetermined and was launched on NonySqueakNews ahead of the decay that Equities to tumble as almost double top formation has been lined upwards. The knee-jerk in equities will unwind completely once trendlines are broken to navigate a surge towards new top to close 2007 books. Notwithstanding, It is time to move away from upward resilience of Gold & Crude Oil as their pricing clouts will register erratic & uncontrollable swings, and will eliminate upward trending lines.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Mon, Nov 19 2007, 06:37 GMT
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What is the next move of USDCAD?
Mon, Oct 15 2007, 03:56 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Forex Department
ForexSurvivor Long Term USDCAD Target @ 0.9864 has been filled, enjoying 1,680pips since July’07
USDCAD is the 13th ForexSurvivor Long Term target that has been accomplished for 2007. On the waiting list is EURUSD which has not been entered yet its Bearish Signal towards 11000, and all the other currencies are working properly towards its Long Term Target.
Reminder: Below is USDCAD analysis that was released on 13 July (Weekly Newsletter) 2007. (Some people think Number 13 is bad: this is the 13th Long term target that has been filled, and its wire was published on 13 July – not that bad).
[Beginning of the reminder]
Stay Long CAD, Gold, & Oil while you go on holiday
CAD = Parity; GOLD = 1020; Crude Oil = 1st target $106/bl
Summer season starts with an eye on the political issue in the ME region. The situation is tensed with Iran and the approach towards structuring US ever largest sea, air, & marine concentration has been built & deployed opposite Iran.
With such deployment, we can not scrutinize only chart indicators or economic figures to direct trading signals with regard to Gold and Crude Oil. ForexSurvivor Octopus System is the Leader in such circumstances. The bid is fixed and the trend is entrenched. As such, we can not expect CAD to weaken that easy yet. CAD ‘Octopus’ indicators are pointing to Parity in the near term which is ForexSurvivor Target since Feb 2007.
Any CAD retracement or correction towards 10975 / 11000 is an opportunity for keeping the Long on the run towards Parity or Elliot wave at 0.9864 [end of the reminder]
What is the future move of USDCAD?
Technically Speaking, USDCAD is about to have a reversal flare-up that will be eclipsed towards 10300 & 10900 before 0.9000 fundamentally is seen and where the market will settle at that bottom for a complete season.
As of now, being bullish signal is highly preferable, even though 0.9500 may keep damaging a chart capitulation.
Non-Forex Department
No Change In View of Previous Week Wire
What happened in the first week of October completed 100% my August epic vision when consolidation market crunched then. What is going to happen next is a little of no trend but rather a move through bumps.
Equities may form (or formed) almost double top, and if the weekly close proves to be levelled around the high of August (just before the turmoil), then we might be ready of building an ascending triangle where an upward trendline from the daily lows since August and up to now should be tested, generating false breaks, before heading back towards new highs that may last till year end. Dax bullishness incomplete and S&P TP @ 1600.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Mon, Oct 15 2007, 03:56 GMT
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next wave EURUSD will ride – 120? 170?
Wed, Oct 10 2007, 09:24 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Non-Forex Department
Equities Almost Toppish & Double Top Formation
What happened in the first week of October completed 100% my August epic vision when consolidation market crunched then. What is going to happen next is a little of no trend but rather a move through bumps.
Equities may form (or formed) almost double top, and if the weekly close proves to be levelled around the high of August (just before the turmoil), then we might be ready of building an ascending triangle where an upward trendline from the daily lows since August and up to now should be tested, generating false breaks, before heading back towards new highs that may last till year end. Dax bullishness incomplete and S&P TP @ 1600.
Forex Department
What is the next wave EURUSD will ride – 120? 170?
We say Long eurusd, they say: Inflation; we say Short euro, they say: keep an eye on the FED! What is wrong with you? Euro is riding well on a seesaw, with a brain damage as heading to where next?
Euro entered the channel that was tunnelled by ForexSurvivor in March 2007 describing Major Top 14000 and 13500 that will lead the way towards 11000. And when 14000 was screened, amendment was wired on NonySqueakNews during whole September stating that top is incomplete and 14325 was to be screened. Top was reached, and correction should be dragged down towards base @ 13500 within 60days.
Only then, when euro blinks back 13500, ForexSurvivor will reassess the next Long Term Target. For the next period bearish signal supersedes lucratively bullish ones and zeroing in the base is achievable in the near future.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Wed, Oct 10 2007, 09:24 GMT
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USDJPY 11650
Tue, Oct 2 2007, 05:43 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Short term USDJPY 11650
Long Term GBPUSD 21300 then 22500
(02 Oct Europe) Yen crosses rebound from last month losses is an emphatic statement of yen vulnerability. This is the third time usdjpy approaches newsletter free trade target @ 11650, and escape is a nay-way to close the trade this week. NFP may be the trigger.
Pound weakened! It had a toughest closed season on Friday. Its opening is just a start for more weakness within 20 days before rallying back towards 21300 the least by the end of the year. However, there are 2 waves that seem to be constructive for building a low, and such waves will have a lower low where the market concentration would be towards 19600, while the reality would tell within mid November that backwards stops allocation to be hungered and strong reversal targeting 21300 will be routing immensely by then. Be careful, the market will not a let ride easily towards 21300 – volatility will be high and volume will be thin as we approach end of year. (ForexSurvivor Long Term Target is 22500, no escape of course, as long as Mr. Brown Nay Resign). I maintain foursquare position on cad signal.
ForexSurvivor Signal(s):
1. (24 Sep) Buy Gold when US (Stock Market) session opens; TP@ $800. Commodity bought @ $730.
2. (21 Sep) Buy USDCAD @ par starting next week and enjoy 103pips. (24 Sep) Position opened @ par. Hold on! Target first attempt missed by spread cost.
Yesterday(s) Valid Comments:
1. (01 Oct ) Being long eurchf (16220) is of no harm.
2. ForexSurvivor S&P Target @ 1600 is on the way after being delayed 47days.
October Closed Positions:
Mission Completed: N/A
ForexSurvivor is a dynamic trading concept that uses no stoploss, & instead its formula converts the stoploss onto an adding position of 2 levels, or reverses the trade within a max loss of an average so far within a year of 28 pips.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Tue, Oct 2 2007, 05:43 GMT
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Equities August Storm Retraces 100%
Mon, Oct 1 2007, 13:36 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
(Non-)Forex Department
Equities August Storm Retraces 100%
Subprime Worries Non-Existent
Long Term Target USDJPY 130 for 2008
Equities Fibo 100% popped up unwittingly at screens starting from mid September, meaning Subprime Worries, that I never believed in, contained. All the creative troubles, corruptions, crunching, tumbling, & all sophisticated storming definition that were used in August to show the market under severe fall steam have Prospered as antonym as of mid September.
Commencing by NASDAQ, we perceive that it has retraced 100% to jot down new high that was lost during August turmoil, to be followed by Dow Jones, S&P, FTSE, DAX, and even new highs are on the making. Resultantly, may I relate mutually the retracement to position my doctrine that were posted in my Newsletters of August that Subprime Worries did not breathe in the first place, and that having countable US bankrupted businesses means that the US economy does not take a punch even a thin?
The bull’s eye question leads to impose ‘Where Next?’ The equity market is retracing 100%, we are back to August highs/lows, & currently where to?
Equities bullish milieu is constructive and keeping the bullish farm open is of no hurt, aforementioned, yen gains on the weakness of more and more meaning Long Term Target yen crosses on the way to level mentioned by ForexSurvivor during December 2006 – EURJPY 200, GBPJPY 300, USDJPY 130 / 150. No tiny doubt about that along the course, and any nose-dive to be bullishly positioned for future positions. Be very prudent though, part of the low (Dow Jones / eurjpy) that was created in August/September Turmoil may be revisited for correction, with my creative conservative point of view that no new monthly low in yen crosses will be revisited. All that leads to High Volatility that will keep running the board till February 2008.
If you can not afford a move of 400pips a day, stay away. Hedging is costly, and skittish points need double margin to run at ease.
10pips Forex Mandatory Path
A. Previous Weekly Free Concrete 10pips trade: Long USDJPY ahead of its 11650 target by 17pips. Mission Incomplete Yet. On Hold still.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Mon, Oct 1 2007, 13:36 GMT
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2007 Psycho Year by ForexSurvivor
Tue, Sep 25 2007, 10:29 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Forex Department
2007 known as Psycho year by ForexSurvivor
Memory Refresh Events (3)
Event 01: ForexSurvivor Long Term Targets
At the beginning of 2007, ForexSurvivor identified the following Long Term Targets:
1. GBPUSD 2.0000
2. GOLD 800 then 1020
3. OIL 80 then 106.5
4. CAD PAR (1.0000)
5. AUD PAR (1.0000)
6. EURO 110
7. S&P 1600
8. USDJPY 125 then 130
Summarizing Forex & Non-Forex trading roll since the beginning of 2007, and which all are found in my Weekly Newsletter, I may start by pointing out that ForexSurvivor GBPUSD has been the most profitable signal for the year among the majors (Check Benchmark , has been updated). Its target @ 2 has been achievable and quite well surpassed.
Nowadays, Crude Oil & Cad has screened the yearly potential target, while GOLD & AUD are heading towards their goals where the former should be screened near term and the latter to have the par recorded before Mar 2008.
S&P, after faltering ahead of the target during August turmoil, it is heading there started mid September and of course our target is of no miss. USDJPY hit the initial target 125 and we should prepare the run towards 130 by year end.
As far as EURO, we have stated that euro has no major trend this year and it is in a consolidation mode after inflating from 0.8000 till last year. We have stated that the band between 13500 and 14000 is nothing but a solid preparation for the tumble. Allow few days/week of collecting years of masses of stops before dollar appreciates towards 110 along the course.
Abbreviation: Among the 8 targets mentioned above, only EURUSD entered a laggard phase and it is in its end, most probably when GOLD hits $800.
Event 02: Zero% Hallucination Forex/Equity Confirmation Certificate
On 24 August 2007, I have printed on my newsletter the followings:
Why a correction and not a corruption? Taking your equity daily chart for the last 5 years, we see no major retracement was overdone, and this month loss has held the price well above 5-years-23.6% Fibo of Dow Jones & that coincides with the 76.4% of 2007 move, as an example. Others belong to the same analysis, almost. Isn’t it funny how a corruption understands Mr. Fibo retracement levels? Why it happened in August? Is it because major investors are enjoying their holidays knowing the true highly volatility and liquidity should take place during the holiday. At the beginning of the month (August), I stated that all pricing levels left by major investors will be seen again once they return back to business. If we see for example Dow at the high again when major investors return (within less than 20 days), it means my above argument covers nothing but perfect analysis; otherwise, I am hallucinating. I let the time prove the story.
& this week, after FOMC meeting,
- Dow and other equities have seen highs left by Major Investors ahead of the turmoil,
- the printing was done 24 Aug, and almost after 20 trading days, Dow is back to the high.
Conclusion: My Analysis proves well educated away from the market nuisances, and that I am not hallucinating the least. To finalize, the turmoil was totally fabricated.
Event 03: NFP Total reversal
On 08 Sep 2007, I have highlighted on my newsletter the followings:
No comment on NFP – as expected to continue the turbulence of August, and such NFP rallies will continue at least till year end. It will not be tedious one as it used to be in the last months. Reversal strict U turns within 2 weeks
Conclusion: Net U Reversal was advocated within less than 2 weeks.
Ok for now, enough applauding…
FOMC decision locked over 2200pips as a total within 45mn
FOMC decision took many by surprise and such bombshell helped closing swiftly almost 80% of ForexSurvivor Open Signals lucratively albeit only one negatively (NZDUSD) as a total.
No More Crashing Signals
The result for the last 2 weeks (table below) shows that each major loss was recovered, and that during high volatility & liquidity, ForexSurvivor has highly adapted its channel formula to nullify the concept of Crashing Signal. As from now, we anticipate no more Crashing Signal. Since 2007, we anticipated only 3 crashing signals and those emerged during August 2007.
(Definition of ForexSurvivor Crashing Signal: losing max cash allowed per currency per signal which is 1500pips, using 4.5lots or max Level III).
Weekly Closed Trades
Last week, we did not print out Weekly Closed Trades as the edition was solely dedicated to Crude Oil. Below please find out the weekly closed trades 10-21 Sep, 2007.
10pips Forex Mandatory Path
A. Previous Weekly Free Concrete 10pips trade: Long USDJPY ahead of its 11650 target by 17pips. Mission Incomplete Yet
B. Previous Order: Long 695.20; TP 25pips. Completed Mission.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Tue, Sep 25 2007, 10:29 GMT
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Labyrinthian Market – Consolidation till NFP
Mon, Sep 10 2007, 13:28 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Forex & Non-Forex Department
Labyrinthian Market – Consolidation till NFP
No comment on NFP – as expected to continue the turbulence of August, and such NFP rallies will continue at least till year end. It will not be tedious one as it used to be in the last months. Reversal strict U turns within 2 weeks.
A week of startling ranging moves known as consolidation, it was only till NFP! An unprofitable week consuming time energy as indecision about any short term trend was complete. USDJPY as a great example has portrayed an inside bar at the beginning of the week, a bullish outside bar the next day and bearish outside model by mid week. To add to the earth yen unrealistic quake, our system targeted most of the CAD signals below the 30pips this week, while other pairs do the lull some negatively. No need of course to talk about the lucrative ones.
NZD crosses took the major hit and weakness continues posting as hedge NZ funds exposures were on the shut down and being the 5th finance company within just 15 days. More weakness to come in the next week and the 6600 won’t be difficult for NZD crackers to close the longs where other NZ hedge funds ruin their investments.
Whether it is related or not to crude oil high price, support for CAD & AUD is provided as they are considered a commodity. AUDNZD reached the high and 12200 is in the offing before a minor consolidation. Apparently CAD to visit the bottom first before any upside sudden move where the model proved well onto consolidation move and will continue that way for the next week; stay rangy between 10400 – 10800.
What has been valid from the past of my wires, traders today find it new and that is related to Yellow Banking funds, knows as Gold. Finally, Gold breaks the triangle just ahead of Ramadan. Reading my previous Gold notes, you will recap that all, and not almost, analyses were bullion fundamentally and adjoining a recall to the old technical picture where:
1. triangle broke the bottom trend line to allocate major stops
2. breaking the top trendline ahead or during Ramadan, and
3. finally the easy way is to keep the ride towards 10020 by the end of the year.
Therefore, no matter what you and I think, the market will price the stated prices (nzdusd, audnzd, gold) clearly within less than 4 months.
More stops are knocked by previous stops!
This is not a driving concept with a Stop Sign but rather Stop Signal. After the turmoil of August, or precisely, after the Long 5 years trend that major correction gets the hit during August, September started a worse case scenario with severe consolidation cycle. A peculiar aspect while comparing stops allocation between nasty August and cool September, August speedy and vicious rallies allocated stops not seen in decades, but from one side only, either bull or bear trends. While September started a cool consolidation cycle running hungrily towards both sides, the bull and the bear. Preferably being cool or nasty is only determined by your astrological nature sign.
10pips Forex Mandatory Path
A. Previous Weekly Free Concrete 10pips trade: EURUSD Long 13712. Mission Completed.
B. New Weekly Free Concrete 10pips trade: AUDNZD Long 11888
ForexSurvivor Real Crude Oil Signal allocated 302pips
Promo: 180pips Mission of Crude Oil has been completed
Applauds…for both…
Reminder of the ‘promo’ trade:
- (Jul 31) Crude Oil: Long Level I (1 lot) @ 7840 Target 45 Pips Exact @ 7885. Target was missed by 8pips. Position is still open.
- (Aug 09) Position shifted to Level II where 1.5 lots were added @ $71.70/bl.
- (Sep 05) Position closed @ 75.10 gathering 180pips.
(The above was a promo trade while the real trade has accumulated 302pips – check table at the bottom)
C. New Weekly Free Concrete 10pips trade: Gold: Long it anytime on Monday during Asian session and collect 37pips in the next sessions.
Down The hill Signal: Prompt Reversal took pride between couple usdjpy trades where 1 lot was fully reversed to 4.5 lots (all Levels) enjoying net 77pips, and then as rally continued another 41pips were allocated.
A rare signal took the hook 3 times ending in Zero combination understanding nothing whether negative or positive. It was left net for broker spread commission, as I am referring to the 3 trades of USDCAD. EURNZD was the Executive performer of this week as it locked 180pip.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Mon, Sep 10 2007, 13:28 GMT
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Tumultuous Fibonacci Turmoil!
Mon, Sep 3 2007, 04:40 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Forex & Non-Forex Department
Tumultuous Fibonacci Turmoil!
August crisis was supported by Fibo levels, and retracement was resisted by moving averages. Am I serious? How can a crisis crunched market be supported by Mr. Fibo & and resisted by Mme Moving Average (MA)? It is by nature Adam supports & Eve resists…
Will September enjoy a further losing fuss trading crunch or a 100% retracement of what had collapsed during August?
Fundamentally speaking, the crunch is not over yet and more to come. I let the great ‘guys’ narrate their defences as they are well rolling coasting the excuses navigators.
Technically speaking, we learned this month that any crunch in the market has Fibo levels to live with, trend lines, retracement, cross moving average and all sort of indicators (except overbought/oversold indicators) did work best. I was amazed by
1. The retracement of NZD that held at daily 50% retracement or weakened back below 200 MA,
2. USDJPY that did not rally above 11700 which is considered daily/weekly low,
3. GBPJPY that did not cross yet the 21 day MA from below,
4. GBPUSD that held the 200MA (although pierced to allocate the stops),
5. EURJPY that held well below the daily 50% of the tumble,
6. AUDJPY barely broke the monthly up trend line to survive the crash on 38.2% Fibo,
7. Dow Jones that was solidly supported (closed well above) at 61.8% of 2007 move,
8. Bund that retraced towards 38.2% for 100pips and I warned that point well in my previous letter (good that no one listen), and its daily downtrend that broke only to head towards the GAP @11420 which might prove good resistance,
9. FTSE that broke the yearly low and is recovering to resist the MA daily 50
10. NASDAQ that was well supported at 38.2% daily Fibo, and
11. the list may go further to almost all securities.
So how then you want me to be convinced that there is a turmoil, crushing market, securities losses, and all fabricated negative consequences that all were supported by Fibo?
This is the only time I noticed that those indicators performed well during my life time in trading; I am not an indicator believer as I have my own system, but it was worth paying attention to the tumultuous Fibonacci turmoil that took place during August.
Would any one stand up in any country and loud voice the why of the following query?
During the crisis, why the Dow Jones stopped its tumble at 61.8% Fibo of 2007 move?
Or how do we translate that daily MA200 held the recovery of GBPJPY? Etc…
I imagine that Messrs Les Presidents would be astonished with an eye brow elevated to the max wondering the hell is talking us about! Good Luck in the next reversal September crisis.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Mon, Sep 3 2007, 04:40 GMT
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12pips Mission of AUDNZD has been completed
Tue, Aug 28 2007, 04:32 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
12pips Mission of AUDNZD has been completed
P.S. Do not trade ahead of ForexSurvivor Entry Level. It may never be seen.
If you are running a bad position and the market is still going against your trades, contact us providing the open position details and we would be more than glad to help you out.
AUDNZD hits ForexSurvivor Target at 11615.
Reminder of the trade:
Aug 21 Spot Trade:
Currency: AUDNZD
Trade Objective: Trend hitting Consolidation Cycle
Chart: Daily
Trade volatility: medium to high
Trade duration once triggered: min 03mn, max 04days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Long 11603 Target 12Pips Exact @ 11615 (Target Met)
Aud trade Enjoyed.
ForexSurvivor is a dynamic trading concept that uses no stoploss, & instead its formula converts the stoploss onto an adding position of 2 levels, or reverses the trade within a max loss of an average so far within a year of 28 pips.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Tue, Aug 28 2007, 04:32 GMT
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Callousness Crunching Correction
Mon, Aug 27 2007, 11:43 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Callousness Crunching Correction & Crashing Continuation Concluded Cash Consolidation
This is a period with unprecedented indictment behaviour where market mood is so tempted with all trading negative definitions. Plus, this is a unique season in almost 3 decades where fundamental, technical, & forecast do get a write off cycle, but not ForexSurvivor Octopus System.
Yen weakness this week was not of surprise as the previous 2 weeks tumble should pause towards a retrace the least 35% of the move, and it did. Warning was passed a week ago that ‘you don’t want to have a Long Yen trade.’ The current move is called ‘number fixation’ where pricings were skipped during high volatile sessions and those numbers should be re-screened, almost like a GAP term, but not a GAP as the latter produces supports & resistances whereas the former is engaged solely with correcting numbers.
They pretty emphasized that was a corruption due to meltdown in subprime and many other negative issues; they do not like to define it as a long term correction as they need a bad reason to have a strong emotional-turmoil that leads to nothing but crisis in trading management.
Why a correction and not a corruption? Taking your equity daily chart for the last 5 years, we see no major retracement was overdone, and this month loss has held the price well above 5-years-23.6% Fibo of Dow Jones & that coincides with the 76.4% of 2007 move, as an example. Others belong to the same analysis, almost. Isn’t it funny how a corruption understands Mr. Fibo retracement levels? Why it happened in August? Is it because major investors are enjoying their holidays knowing the true highly volatility and liquidity should take place during the holiday. At the beginning of the month, I stated that all pricing levels left by major investors will be seen again once they return back to business. If we see for example Dow at the high again when major investors return (within less than 20 days), it means my above argument covers nothing but perfect analysis; otherwise, I am hallucinating. I let the time prove the story.
A. Previous Weekly Free Concrete 10pips trade: USDCHF Long 12123.
(Keep the Limit).
B. New Weekly Free Concrete 10pips trade: NZDJPY Short 8000.
What a Dax trade!!! Applauds!…
1. Previous Weekly Free Concrete free tumble 50pips trade: Sell Dax ahead of closing bell on Monday. Mission: Dax was sold on Monday ahead of the closing bell at 7412. Target Met on Tuesday @ 7362(European Session) achieving 50pips.
2. New Null trade this week. Working already the Dow Jones trade on NonySqueakNews wires. Reminder of the trade:
(USA Morning Session Aug 23) New Trade: Dow Jones: Sell ahead of closing bell today Aug 23 by 10mn, target 112pips.
*** Dow Jones (DJI.I) ForexSurvivor Signal released: @ 19:50 GMT (Aug 23) sold @ 13235 targeting 112pips @ 13123
(Attention: it is not a limit, already it is working order).
Down The hill Signal: Euro walked slowly and firmly step by step with the III levels signals and on our NonySqueakNews wires and ended finally at the age of 71.5 plus. It is considered a weak performer although it recovered 71.5pips, but it absorbed the maximization of survivor levels allowed.
Apart, not mentioning for the third week a battle with gbpchf, but this time no hedge survival method was applied. We were satisfied with the loss and very happy with the attainable reversal of 49pips or a total of almost spread loss.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Mon, Aug 27 2007, 11:43 GMT
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ForexSurvivor USDCHF, GBPCHF, & Bund Future Analysis
Mon, Aug 13 2007, 01:46 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Forex Department
USDCHF: SNB 50% repo rate on the increase (or probably 25%) by September. Rates have deep-seated CHF.
GBPUSD: Long Term Target at 2.25 hard to be achieved this quarter. Exit LT Trade.
A. SNB has become more enthusiastic in firming CHF. We are approaching a rate of 50% increase by September and the currency (usdchf) started to price the repo rate. There is risk of 25% increase but in both cases CHF bottom is being deep-seated.
Intervention can not be ruled out and as fundamentals express the CHF behaviour in weeks to come, such occurrence will only allow the model of adding to the longs positions.
SNB has warned that weak CHF generates higher inflation, and usdchf lower lows are justified by fundamentals, but they are never there. It is apparent that the time for such lower lows is ticking fast.
B. Pound ForexSurvivor Long term Indicator is approaching a consolidation versus reversal point, and it is acquitting the bullish theme. We exited our Long term trade (on Monday 06 Aug as stated on NonySqueakNews wire) and we have to linger till mid September to identify the new trend and its inauguration day. The achievement of 2.2500 is not probable this quarter, and pound may register vigorous weakness.
The probability of pound reaching 19850 is high, but not the right time to put the belongings in the bear farm as our system has identified a very futuristic hectic wave of at least sudden 180pips from both sides in the days ahead. You do want to stay away from pound unless you are receiving ForexSurvivor Signal. Feel free.
A. Previous Weekly Free Concrete 08pips trade: USDCAD Short 10427 or Long 10700 – neither entry was triggered. Keep the limit.
B. New Weekly Free Concrete 10pips trade: USDCHF Short 11725 or Long 12110.
Non-Forex Department
Does it worth believing the credit hullabaloo markets?
Fed Played Down Subprime Meltdown
As stated on my previous Newsletter, the plummet of the stock market is only August profit taking decision and not a subprime meltdown; Fed showed up confirming my memo when it downplayed the threat of subprime meltdown.
Equities are very much in positive territory and still have a long way to go. Not every correction is translated onto ‘weak US economy,’ at least till mid 2008. It takes more than few bankruptcies topics to burden a threatening impact on the US economy. As once stated on the media, UAE have at least 40 major bankruptcies per week, and its economy dares showing no weakness.
Best tactic for August, go with the ups and go with the downs, either or both way(s) sufficient enough to produce 20 to 50pips. There is no stable current trend and August instruments shape more a consolidation rollercoaster – always back to the pivot, at least till investors return from vacation and school starts.
Worth cluing is revising my newsletter Bund tactical trade (20 Jul) – Accentuating Bund Resistances: to recap: ‘There is an attempt towards 11304 (38.2 Fibo) and 11350 daily TL, and those are seen as a bearish mode if they get the hit within one week.’
Market hits 11304 within one week (missed 11350 by 12pips) and signalled bearish 100pips allocation; I would like to know how many of you took the hit @ 11304? I believe very few and even non-existent traders because most of you are emotionally attached to what the media spread: you trusted the Subprime Meltdown and thought that ForexSurvivor Bund sell level indications (pointed ahead of the hullabaloo) are worthless. Well, 100pips is a great positive realization for not being missed next time no matter what recreational engagements are markedly absorbed.
A. Previous Weekly Free Concrete 12 pips trade: Short FTSE 6237 Target 6225 (Target Met on 2007-08-06 12:08:29 GMT).
B. New Weekly Free Concrete 12pips trade: Bund Future – Sell on Monday Today’s (Friday 10 Aug) closing (for 12pips only).
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Mon, Aug 13 2007, 01:46 GMT
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ForexSurvivor Weekly Newsletter (Forex & Non−Forex Behaviour).
Mon, Aug 6 2007, 05:39 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
A. Yen Gains on the ‘losing game’ again within next week data
B. There is no balance anymore among dollar currencies (hedging).
C. During Turmoil market, how ForexSurvivor trades without stoploss? AUDNZD hint!
Yen gains were formidable this week and the entire credence story is about ‘correction 2007 trend;’ no other justifications are tolerable, especially BOJ has not intervened. Next week data continues to underpin yen crosses to at least first initial targets (50% Fibo); yen crosses have fallen onto a start-consolidation mode for August - Dollar ForexSurvivor Long Term Target is 130 & 150 along the run versus Yen.
In the past and probably still, dollar currencies were traded in a hedging manner to narrow maximization losses. For example, when a trade was long on the eurusd, another trade was hedged being short usdchf (or eurusd vs. gbpusd). The current trading atmosphere has changed, and that has nothing to do with the depleted ozone layers, but rather with the depletion of hedging-trend. Well noted this year is the trend between gbpusd and eurusd. If you are short euro and long pound, it pays (only if you stayed long pound above the psycho level 2.0000 – which I doubt since the market was convincingly short the 19800 band); but if you are long euro and short pound, dollar depletion takes also a major concern since euro trend so far this year is very short in relative to pound trend length. Recap: balancing dollar currencies between/among themselves is not a first-class strategy.
How ForexSurvivor trades during turmoil?
(Ref: AUDNZD Table Below) It is worth presenting what happened to ForexSurvivor currency signal during stock market mayhem that took place last week, and originated the whole market to speed controversial rallies.
In a calm atmosphere, we were short audnzd @10925 (starting point: level I which is equal to 1 lot/contract), and when the storm lifted the price towards 11145 using the deterioration of the stock market, we close the trade with -220pips. At the same time, ForexSurvivor Octopus formula signalled a full position reversal, where we bought full permitted lots/contracts (i.e. Level I, II, III equivalent to 1, 1.5, 2 lots/contracts respectively or a total of 4.5 lots/contracts) at 11145. The first endeavour signal was closed with +193.5pips, to end with another full signal +112.5pips, achieving net profit of +86pips. This is one of the ways why stoploss is of no need when trading with ForexSurvivor only. We use no stoploss but our signal is reversible in the end. This is what we call a turmoil -27pips loss (-220pips vs. +193pips) or +86pips profit as a whole.
What is the story behind audnzd trade? Each currency has its own unique behaviour, and unless you trade with ForexSurvivor Octopus Formula (especially during turmoil) I bet you run under severe hassle conditions each time you are challenged with an abrupt correction or spike. It is worth noting that audnzd new high above our closing trade wasn’t achieved the whole week (and till this time of writing at 14:00 GMT Friday) as we were squeezing the currency to the top.
A. Last week 08pips trade was not triggered: EURUSD short 13608 – Remove.
B. New Weekly Free Concrete 08pips trade: USDCAD Short 10427 or Long 10700.
Non-Forex Department
What is the event needed for Crude Oil to have a hit @ $106.5/bl?
To have Crude Oil listed over $100/bl, events’ list is unlimited and comprises hurricane, terrorist (pipeline) organized operations, deficiency in supply-demand OPEC curve, etc… my standpoint illustrates that I pay close attention to what is happening with the political US-Iran relation, and where such relation has been my only factor that drives up my Crude Oil prices.
For now, I can be of concern that none of the events mentioned have taken place and price was lifted almost $10/bl since my ‘in-place perfectives’ warnings were jotted down. Imagine if any of the events would take place, then wouldn’t be enough to be convinced that ForexSurvivor First Crude Oil Target @ $106.5/bl would be screened in the near term? For now, I barely believe that such events are needed to hit the $106.5/bl bullseye.
The strongest warning from Mr. Bush administration was released yesterday: ‘US Economy is in danger zone with high Oil prices.’ It seems pointing to the approach of the psycho price @ $80/bl target then my first target @ $106.5/bl - Should we get worried about trending Crude Oil up? Of course not! It is the same remark when Bush administration passes remarks that the US dollar is strong and strong as ever and the synopsis: dollar index arrowing a fine down trend. However, the target might be delayed a bit.
A. Mission of last week 25pips trade incomplete but valid – stay tune (Gold: Long 695.20).
B. New: Weekly Free Concrete 25 pips trade: Crude Oil: Long 80.00$.bl -this is a psychological price, but who cares?
Equities Tumble has been awaited
Topsy-turvy equities are of no concern to ForexSurvivor Trade Signals & redressing has been 2-months awaited. Bull theme has to wait a bit before registering unprecedented fertile developments. For example, ForexSurvivor S&P Long Term target is @ 1,900 and along the course I will develop a reasonable strategic plan so to have my target achieved as usual.
What is comical about equities’ strategists?
When equity market was fully bullish, the fundamental salutation you could read or hear: Shanghai Composite Index is at the highest and that is driving perpendicularly the stock market.
Since the start of equity correction, that index has no commentators and most probably because strategists can not balance the previous reasons to nowadays reason: Shanghai composite is achieving still new high waves especially after equities tumble.
A confusion conclusion is always what researchers should present, and ForexSurvivor way of living is to survive researchers’ mines without being exploded one time. For the sake of trading at ease with ForexSurvivor Octopus Formula, I will keep my challenging trading behaviour to a narrow hidden band & with a slight pause.
New: Weekly Free Concrete 12 pips trade: Short FTSE 6237 Target 6225
Down The hill Signal: This week GBPCHF drove us through a well shaped U-turn that ended almost with a spread loss, & that small negative impact has been recovered by interest rate charges. As for Equity, we have no worth comments to announce as we are waiting for the storm to challenge another planet. Gold is having the lull some version for now, and the price is working the daily uptrend line very cautiously. Would we have a $10 decrease (absorbing hungrily stops) before major up trend continues?
Notification: AUDNZD (+112.5pips) is not an Executive or Best Performer as it was related more to the Surviving method of the previous audnzd trades during equity turmoil.
Benchmark Supreme Investment
ForexSurvivor Weekly Newsletter dated 08 June 2007 released ‘Double ROI Petition.’ The account started on 23 July. We will post the percentage return in the end of each week till 20 Dec 2007. Recap: Return on Investment of $500M equals 13.42% up to Friday closing.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Mon, Aug 6 2007, 05:39 GMT
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Yen gain is not an intervention. Gold should be kept bidded.
Mon, Jul 30 2007, 09:30 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Forex Department
CAD=parity; AUD = Parity; EURJPY psycho 170 delayed; EURUSD No Direction.
Commodity currencies have no damaging part and continue to posting gains and indeed strong one. CAD strengthened towards 10344 and AUD 8850. Both have ForexSurvivor Long Term Target @ par value and CAD is the first approaching the coequality in the near term. The latest week move is a good strategy for reaching parity, after the storm calms down. Be careful, thin market is a concern.
EURUSD screened in an eerie moribund range orbiting the smallest historical weekly candle chart since euro was launched with little to inspire fresh direction. Dollar Index traded below its weekly downward wedge, allowing major stops to be taken and contributed to false-break closings. Such wedge will resolve sharply higher.
EURJPY has lost its clout and its support was dented keeping the currency at bay. The yen correction is of no major carry trade shakeout; yen gains were more related to dollar weakness where a bottom in the latter is on the built. Further, election in Japan during weekend and closing end of month books support the concept of deterioration seen in eurjpy and other yen crosses; reshaping all losses is expected to start by mid next week. A good assumption to remember that yen gains were not a sort of intervention, but rather recline on partial profit taking as August vacation starts, high volatility, thin market, and a fussy correction in the end is needed after so many weeks of trending upwards.
Weekly Free Concrete 08 pips trade: EURUSD: Short 13608
Non-Forex Department
Market is whispering on selling Gold @ $800! Well, that is an amazing loss as $1020 ForexSurvivor target for 2007 is Very (Very) cheap and will be seen no matter what the market does.
There are lots of evaluations, calculations, and historical estimations about Gold that I won’t go onto detailed perspectives since traders do adore trading in a very brief manner using ForexSurvivor Simple Signal. Who needs knotty eco-politics (even religious) analysis when someone else does it for you?
Pre-emptive hint: do not sell Gold no matter what your technical and or fundamental data narrates. Keep it bided as a terrible rally will sure happen, leaving traders with no time to ride the bull trend and that will have no easy top-end again.
Weekly Free Concrete 25 pips trade: Gold (Spot): Long 695.20
Bi-monthly free trade of 55pips (Set the limit)
GBPUSD: Long 20350 target 55pips exact @ 20405
Down The hill Signal: This week EURUSD trade has been signaled three times with barely total positive pips of 18; it well tells how its micro-narrow band has been configured in the last 2 weeks.
How ForexSurvivor trades during turmoil?
EURCHF closed with a major loss of (-169.5) and trade was fully recouped by reversing the whole levels achieving 202.5pips. Same story for AUDNZD where the trade was fully reversed achieving a total net loss of (-27pips). S&P has also contributed to a loss and was reversed (double-position reversal) to have the expense recouped achieving net profit of 24pips.
Notification: it pays to have a close attention at audnzd & eurchf reversal pattern (check trades below).
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Mon, Jul 30 2007, 09:30 GMT
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(Newsletter)GBPUSD, Bund, CAD, & what has been eliminated?
Fri, Jul 20 2007, 16:31 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
(Newsletter)GBPUSD, Bund, CAD, & what has been eliminated?
Forex Department
GBPUSD Bi-Monthly Free Trade of 55pips
23 July - 20 Aug 2007:
- Currency: GBPUSD
- Trade Objective: Trend resumption after correction
- Chart: 1hr
- Trade Entry Validation: 20 Jul – 20 Aug
- Trade Volatility: medium to high
- Trade duration once filled: min 4hr, max 12 days
- Trade Selectivity: Long Side only.
- Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form.
- Before you trade note: Let the price close below 20350 first, & then only place the limit order.
Long 20350 Target 55pips Exact @ 20405
Enjoy Pound Trade.
ForexSurvivor is a dynamic trading concept that uses no stoploss, & instead its formula converts the stoploss onto an adding position of 2 levels, or reverses the trade within a max loss of an average so far within a year of 28 pips.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
Non-Forex Department
Equity: Accentuating Bund future (FGBLU7) Resistances
Critical Level: 11304 (38.2 Fibo)
Negative settlement is reflecting the chart. There is an attempt towards 11304 (38.2 Fibo) and 11350 daily TL, and those are seen as a bearish mode if they get the hit within one week. Alternatively, any break below 10966 accelerates the move towards 10700.
Trade hint: the consolidation at the low level implies that lower levels are to be seen, and the sell off remains intact even if we have closing above TLs.
(Non-)Forex Weekly Signal Epitome:
Down The hill Signal: This week no trade has been closed with loss in either Forex or Non-Forex Securities.
Notification: Rollercoaster intra day trade this week was usdcad; even our signal tracked the toughest small wave’s entries (see usdcad weekly closed trades below where in and out many times causing spread pips benefits/losses). As well, we are almost 400 pips away from parity and any correction would be hard to survive above 10800. Both facts prove how the bearish spot status quo towards parity is of no escape. Major and even slight correction has not been concretized & started shifting a major concern for any correction. Crude Oil is not helping at all the cad environment where as I firmly pinpointed in my previous ‘Oil’ comments that traders and investors would be surprised by the New Oil trend. It is happening! $10/bl inflated since my first warning.
**Something we will see no more: In the past ‘Spike’ was the leader of the market; then the strong rally that is exuberated by yen crosses where correction takes the form of 500pips the least. Two years ago, Spike was eliminated from the market, and this month major yen crosses correction has been eliminated as well.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Fri, Jul 20 2007, 16:31 GMT
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I have to do it: Recapitulate Crude Oil Analysis
Fri, Jul 20 2007, 10:18 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
I have to do it: Recapitulate Crude Oil Analysis
Attention: Only Crude Oil Traders/Investors.
Subject: I am summing up back my 2007Crude Oil Analysis.
Pre-requisite: Crude Oil Daily Chart.
Intelligence: Read it all in details and if you do not benefit soon in the future, dare contact me with presenting your whys.
February 2007:
What is wrong with Iran and its Nuclear Issue, and how is affecting the market?
Politically speaking, it is a worrying issue, but in reality it is not. If there is a decision about having a worldwide war with Iran, we would encounter un-thinkable consequences on crude oil, US, and especially Japan since the latter highly relies on oil. It won’t be an army-war, but rather a well burning-oil effect on all sort of industries. Result: Rapid crashing businesses and number one would be Technology Sector before transportation sector.
The consequence of Iran was tested murmuringly this week [when Iran fired at a US ship (rumor)] where oil reached $68/barrel, and then the move gave up its test where oil backed to $63. Any serious tension with Iran, expect oil to reach $200/barrel within a rapid move of countable –finger days. Something I consider a ‘suicide’ strategic plan for the US.
Question for Analysis: why the US would need the oil price to be expensive? Asia competitive market has the answer.
23 February 2007:
Crude Oil: Bottom about to be established, and as we are approaching Middle East high tensions in the next days/weeks, a rally on the radar towards $70 should be hinted as ‘tensed.’
April 2007:
Crude Oil & its correction: In my previous Newsletter, I entangled short details about Oil and my Political View. Specifically I have mentioned that “Our long Term trades has translated the tension ahead of time, and correction (short term) is expected after the weekend.” This Week: Indeed Oil Correction took place after the weekend and the situation with Iran calmed down. Had I known that my Oil Correction View will let the situation calm down with Iran, then I should be hoping to be living and trading in an Oil Correction Cycle all the time. Check my closed trades at the end of this letter.
May 2007:
Petroleum worldwide is manoeuvring a strong demand rebound than expected as OPEC supplies are reduced and global petroleum inventories are shifting to the ‘oversold’ zone in the coming months when seasonal demand rallies again. As such, Oil target has been jotted down on the 77$/barrel for this quarter. Being on the sidelines is a good strategy till that correction runs its course, then we will be looking with the Canadian at the buying level that will generate a double digit return for them to scale a good measurement in its books. Such level should be capitulating around the $60.
Comment: correction did not materialize.
June 2007:
Crude Oil & its $250/barrel Nuclear War Target
The foundation of Crude Oil target is not measured through charts or economic figures. For this specific instrument, at this specific high alert timing, you have to forget everything you learned about OB / OS, & resistances only- support is of no interest since the price will sky high towards the manoeuvrings satellites over earth (or our) - head.
Iran’s Deputy Interior Minister (M.B. Zolghadr) launched an unusually explicit threat as Iran interpreted the seven-day Negev exercise (joint US – Israel air manoeuvre) as a preparatory step for US-Israeli air attack on its nuclear sites. His threat:
Blocking the Strait of Hormuz to Oil exports from the gulf è $250/barrel.
In my previous (Feb) newsletters, I stated the consequences of Crude Oil ForexSurvivor target towards $200/barrel. Fine then, keep holding the Long from $200 to $250 as Iranian target is fine tuned according to their exports (threats) while my target is tuned based on supply and demand. Expect $120/barrel on the first serious rocket that will hit Iran.
I wonder how citizens around the globe would cover their fuel necessities in the long run. I recall once Mr. Bush has stated that ‘US should find Crude Oil Alternative.’ Iran Oil blockade in the future might be a start for finding an Oil proxy. Till then, keep trading with the bull.
July 2007: (pretty important)
1st target: Crude Oil @ $106.52/bl is on the way.
Crude Oil is in danger of forming a daily W formation, and any break of the top will form a resilient horizontal wave that will be the result of the distance between the bottom and the top of that W. First Target would read $106.52/barrel once we have at least one hour closing above that top of the W. Although my price is much higher and correlated to political threat in the ME regions (check previous newsletter analysis), I am giving my context some technical support to keep my Long Term Oil Bullish Trades on the run at ease.
On 15 June, ForexSurvivor Crude Oil studies configuration went the route towards $200/barrel as a long term target. We still have long way to go since only $6/bl has been appreciated. We will allow some correction for few days before we ride the trend again
13 July 2007:
Stay Long Oil while you go on holiday
Crude Oil = 1st target $106/bl
Summer season starts with an eye on the political issue in the ME region. The situation is tensed with Iran and the approach towards structuring US ever largest sea, air, & marine concentration has been built & deployed opposite Iran.
With such deployment, we can not scrutinize only chart indicators or economic figures to direct trading signals with regard to Gold and Crude Oil. ForexSurvivor Octopus System is the Leader in such circumstances. The bid is fixed and the trend is entrenched.
ForexSurvivor Crude Oil Closing Trades since Feb 2007 and till 20 July 2007: contact us
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Fri, Jul 20 2007, 10:18 GMT
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Stay Long CAD, Gold, & Oil while you go on holiday
Mon, Jul 16 2007, 00:53 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
It will do it: Lid the bid - GBPUSD @ 2.2500
The strength in pound is in place. Long Term Target @ 2.2500. But, wait a minute: don’t buy it today, it is expensive. Allow its upward daily wedge to initiate a deeper bottom; then wait for the media to buzz the pound towards parity and only then start trading against every one will. Time frame: many weeks still before we start with this strategy.
The bottom weekly trendline warned for a bearish reversal at the beginning of July. However the pound rallied to screen new highs and it is comfortable at higher levels. We will keep the lid on the bid for now and will add to our short term strategy if deeper opportunities are seen.
GREAT DILEMMA è Many might wonder how EURUSD ForexSurvivor long Term target is set towards 11000 (trend down) while GBPUSD has been identified this week at 22500 (trend up)? Good question; I may furnish the answer near term. Dollar may weaken slightly again in the next weeks (as US data at least shows), more through consolidation phase, before a major uptrend resumes that will last at least 6 months.
Stay Long CAD, Gold, & Oil while you go on holiday
CAD = Parity; GOLD = 1020; Crude Oil = 1st target $106/bl
Summer season starts with an eye on the political issue in the ME region. The situation is tensed with Iran and the approach towards structuring US ever largest sea, air, & marine concentration has been built & deployed opposite Iran.
With such deployment, we can not scrutinize only chart indicators or economic figures to direct trading signals with regard to Gold and Crude Oil. ForexSurvivor Octopus System is the Leader in such circumstances. The bid is fixed and the trend is entrenched. As such, we can not expect CAD to weaken that easy yet. CAD ‘Octopus’ indicators are pointing to Parity in the near term which is ForexSurvivor Target since Feb 2007.
Any CAD retracement or correction towards 10975 / 11000 is an opportunity for keeping the Long on the run towards Parity or Elliot wave at 0.9864
Weekly Signal Epitome:
Best Single Forex performer this week was again USDCAD (+80pips) with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by AUDJPY again (+75pips); Weak performer was GBPCAD but was survived by another GBPCAD ending in (+22.5pips), and thus again weak performance was excused this week.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Mon, Jul 16 2007, 00:53 GMT
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EURUSD, USDJPY, & Crude Oil: UN−TOPPISH
Mon, Jul 9 2007, 07:56 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
EURUSD, USDJPY, & Crude Oil: UN-TOPPISH
Was a trivial week in terms of forex trading signals, as ‘Fourth of July’, BOE, ECB, & NFP held the breath of allotable signals.
3rd time: Euro Challenging the Top Again
Euro is in Positive Territory for now: This is the third challenge that euro channels towards the yearly top. Further productions of impressive gains are of no threat, and an outburst wave is promising to allocate the so many yearly recalcitrant stops above 13685 & 13777.
2nd week: Dollar¥ slithered off the spiring target.
The week started reddish and drifted the dollars towards some supports wash-ups to present fine-tune reversal image for the bulls. It needs much more than low liquidity, high volatility, low volumes, and / or OB indicator to change the dollar bullish view of ForexSurvivor. For the current time, more opportunities would be furnished for forcing us to add positions (Level II) to our view, as dollar will revive in a healthy manner in the near term. No tiny doubt about it.
1st target: Crude Oil @ $106.52/bl is on the way.
Crude Oil is in danger of forming a daily W formation, and any break of the top will form a resilient horizontal wave that will be the result of the distance between the bottom and the top of that W. First Target would read $106.52/barrel once we have at least one hour closing above that top of the W. Although my price is much higher and correlated to political threat in the ME regions (check previous newsletter analysis), I am giving my context some technical support to keep my Long Term Oil Bullish Trades on the run at ease.
On 15 June, ForexSurvivor Crude Oil studies configuration went the route towards $200/barrel as a long term target. We still have long way to go since only $6/bl has been appreciated. We will allow some correction for few days before we ride the trend again. Below are the closing trades that are diagramming a money-making horizontal path where 482 pips have been allocated so far, representing 77% of the trend.
Weekly Signal Epitome
Best Single Forex performer this week was USDCAD (77+55pips) with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by AUDJPY (+56pips); Weak performer was excused this week and that might be due to the trivial week (as stated at the top).
Dow Jones kept its bullish signal for more days and we enjoyed the long signal twice where 86 pips and 44 pips have been allocated. Crude Oil continues to complete good trading figures where this week another 77 pips were added to its lucrative column.
Oldies Signal vs. Updates:
ü USDCAD: Mission of Bi-Monthly Free Trade of 55 pips has been completed.
Reminder of the trade
June 29 – July 30 Spot Trade:
1. Currency: USDCAD
2. Trade Objective: Correction theme if long, Long Term trend follower if short
3. Chart: Daily
4. Trade volatility: medium
5. Trade duration once triggered: min 2 hr, max 15 days.
6. Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
7. Selectivity: Trade either LONG or SHORT – once one signal is triggered the second signal becomes invalid.
LONG 10794 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 10849 (Nullified)
OR
Short 10570 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 10515 (Target Met)
CAD trade Enjoyed.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
Published on Mon, Jul 9 2007, 07:56 GMT
0
0
USDCAD entry level triggered
Mon, Jul 2 2007, 14:05 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
USDCAD entry level triggered
***ForexSurvivor SHORT entry level has been triggered, and the LONG entry is of no valid anymore. ***
Reminder of the Trade:
USDCAD: Bi-Monthly Free Trade of 55 pips
1. Currency: USDCAD
2. Trade Objective: Correction theme if long, Long Term trend follower if short
3. Chart: Daily
4. Trade volatility: medium
5. Trade duration once triggered: min 2 hr, max 15 days.
6. Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
7. Selectivity: Trade either LONG or SHORT – once one signal is triggered the second signal becomes invalid.
LONG 10794 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 10849
OR
SHORT 10570 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 10515
Enjoy CAD trade.
ForexSurvivor is a dynamic trading concept that uses no stoploss, & instead its formula converts the stoploss onto an adding position of 2 levels, or reverses the trade within a max loss of an average so far within a year of 28 pips.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
Published on Mon, Jul 2 2007, 14:05 GMT
0
0
USDCAD: Bi−Monthly Free Trade of 55 pips
Sun, Jul 1 2007, 21:12 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
USDCAD: Bi-Monthly Free Trade of 55 pips
June 29 – July 30 Spot Trade:
1. Currency: USDCAD
2. Trade Objective: Correction theme if long, Long Term trend follower if short
3. Chart: Daily
4. Trade volatility: medium
5. Trade duration once triggered: min 2 hr, max 15 days.
6. Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
7. Selectivity: Trade either LONG or SHORT – once one signal is triggered the second signal becomes invalid.
LONG 10794 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 10849
OR
SHORT 10570 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 10515
Enjoy CAD trade.
Parity: Which Currencies are heading to 1?
The most important closing - week.month.quarter.1st ½ of the year - took place today Fri 29 July. The closing has highlighted a Parity issue till the next important close. A move to Parity in AUDUSD, USDCAD, & Dollar index is not ruled out in the coming months. $CAD will be the first one hitting 1, to be followed by AUD$, and then the $$ Index.
ForexSurvivor Long Term behaviour in the above mentioned currencies targets Parity and is traded through ‘Options’ themes.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
Published on Sun, Jul 1 2007, 21:12 GMT
0
0
EURNZD New Signal
Wed, Jun 27 2007, 14:29 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
EURNZD New Signal
June 27 - Jul 15 Spot Trade:
Currency: EURNZD
Trade Objective: RETRACEMENT
Chart: 1Hr
Trade volatility: medium to high
Trade duration once triggered: min 12mn, max 3 days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
LONG 17710 Target 20 Pips Exact @ 17730
Enjoy NZD trade.
ForexSurvivor is a dynamic trading concept that uses no stoploss, & instead its formula converts the stoploss onto an adding position of 2 levels, or reverses the trade within a max loss of an average so far within a year of 28 pips.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
Published on Wed, Jun 27 2007, 14:29 GMT
0
0
EURUSD New Signal
Wed, Jun 27 2007, 08:21 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
EURUSD New Signal
June 27 - Jul 15 Spot Trade:
Currency: EURUSD
Trade Objective: INCOMPLETE high
Chart: 45mn
Trade volatility: medium to high
Trade duration once triggered: min 05mn, max 12 days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Selectivity: Trade either LONG or SHORT – once one signal is triggered the second signal becomes invalid.
LONG 13468 Target 20 Pips Exact @ 13488
Or
SHORT 13350 Target 20 Pips Exact @ 13330
Enjoy Euro trade.
ForexSurvivor is a dynamic trading concept that uses no stoploss, & instead its formula converts the stoploss onto an adding position of 2 levels, or reverses the trade within a max loss of an average so far within a year of 28 pips.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
Published on Wed, Jun 27 2007, 08:21 GMT
0
0
Mission of CADJPY has been completed
Wed, Jun 27 2007, 05:50 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Mission of CADJPY has been completed
CADJPY hits ForexSurvivor Target at 11447.
Reminder of the trade:
June 26 – July05 Spot Trade:
Currency: CADJPY
Trade Objective: Stop Loss follower
Chart: 05 mn
Trade volatility: medium
Trade duration once triggered: min 2mn, max 3days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Short 11467 Target 20 Pips Exact @ 11447 (Target Met)
Yen trade Enjoyed
ForexSurvivor is a dynamic trading concept that uses no stoploss, & instead its formula converts the stoploss onto an adding position of 2 levels, or reverses the trade within a max loss of an average so far within a year of 28 pips.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
Published on Wed, Jun 27 2007, 05:50 GMT
0
0
CADJPY entry level triggered
Wed, Jun 27 2007, 05:05 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
CADJPY entry level triggered
***ForexSurvivor entry level has been triggered. ***
Reminder of the Trade:
June 26 – July05 Spot Trade:
Currency: CADJPY
Trade Objective: Stop Loss follower
Chart: 05 mn
Trade volatility: medium
Trade duration once triggered: min 2mn, max 3days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Short 11467 Target 20 Pips Exact @ 11447
Enjoy Yen trade.
ForexSurvivor is a dynamic trading concept that uses no stoploss, & instead its formula converts the stoploss onto an adding position of 2 levels, or reverses the trade within a max loss of an average so far within a year of 28 pips.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
Published on Wed, Jun 27 2007, 05:05 GMT
0
0
CADJPY New Signal
Tue, Jun 26 2007, 17:24 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
June 26 – July05 Spot Trade:
Currency: CADJPY
Trade Objective: Stop Loss follower
Chart: 05 mn
Trade volatility: medium
Trade duration once triggered: min 2mn, max 3days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Short 11467 Target 20 Pips Exact @ 11447
Enjoy Yen trade.
ForexSurvivor is a dynamic trading concept that uses no stoploss, & instead its formula converts the stoploss onto an adding position of 2 levels, or reverses the trade within a max loss of an average so far within a year of 28 pips.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
Published on Tue, Jun 26 2007, 17:24 GMT
0
0
EURUSD ForexSurvivor Long Term Target @ 1.100
Mon, Jun 25 2007, 13:05 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Equities 2007: Lengthy - Speedy Rallies, Petite Reversals
What a year! Splendid so far for long term investors, quite satisfactory but not convincing for medium ones and always skirmish pip field for daily traders who are not using ForexSurvivor signals.
Chaptering the equities field, each time a wave correction takes place, bond yield rises causing abundant benefits to the trend & its optimization in the financial markets. Markets have been spooked by relentless rise in yields which is tied to an unwinding of the bond market conundrum and that rising export prices from Asia signs the end of the deflationary period of globalisation.
The first half of the year remained speedy-trendy and well structured, and the trend (or reversal one) is going to be intensified in the next half. However, for now, Goldilocks is sleeping decisively in the bear’s bed. Equities are charting the same ‘rushing & building candles’ as 2006/7 triangle Gold formation.
EURUSD ForexSurvivor Long Term Target @ 1.100
The first ½ of 2007 has been known as ‘10 pips a day keeps the euro away.’
Our signal has not performed outstanding pips in the first ½ of 2007, and the simple reason is that euro is attaining very limit highs or lows on each day, and many trading days/weeks enjoyed lacklustre routing. Euro High vs. Low for the first ½ of 2007 is almost 600 pips and our trades have attracted 37 % of that trend i.e. 222 pips or 37 pips / month so far this year.
I have warned at the beginning of this year that this is not euro year, and rather the pound is the ruler for 2007 where 114% have been allocated so far of the trend i.e. 1114 pips (185 pips / month) surpassing the difference of the High vs. Low in 2007 which is almost 970 pips.
Fundamentally speaking, I need 3 basics correlations to keep holding my euro bearish view towards 110.
ü Interest rate keeps surging,
ü economy is rebounding, and
ü smaller US debt levels.
So far, all 3 levels are in correct phase, that said. And there is no reason not to buy dollar since US is doing good.
Backing up the fundamental view by the technical view, and as I have both views on the wire of NonySqueakNews since 14 May 2007 (& will remain there for few months) the Long Term Dollar consideration:
Technical: Dollar Index has formed a falling wedge and this contributes to a large upside breakout.
Fundamental: If we screen that there is ‘Stabilization in the economy environment’ this will imply a toppish EURUSD for the next few months.
Worth noting: Traders-sphere is pretty much aware of the dollar falling wedge, and what we should expect ahead of such breakout to the upside some weekly false breaks before euro targets 9677 by the end of the year the least.
An outstanding Dilemma: The US economy was not doing well and the dollar was charting a falling wedge. Soon, when the wedge resistance breaks (which will resolve sharply higher) the US economy will start doing wonderful; and why it is going to do that wonderful after the break? It is amazing how Federal Reserve correlates its knowledge to wedging formation. I myself know that this has nothing to do with technical or fundamental US figures, but rather with the Arbitrage of the Chinese. China Changes the un-Changeable.
Our next ½ of the year will engage sophistically with euro bear signals, and will start from 135/140 towards 110/9967 Elliott target.
*** Be careful: I never miss my Long Term Target ***
Weekly Signal Epitome
Best Single Forex performer this week was CHFJPY (74+45 pips) with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by GBPUSD (72+15 pips); Weak performer was excused this week from its looser-class although USDCHF bulldozed (-19.5 pips) but was re-traded with another signal compensating the loss with an affirmative diet pips of +12.5
Crude Oil completed this week at least two figures of 230 pips, followed by FTSE.I (+55 pips). The latter trade objectivity was ‘Closing a Gap’ while the former has been stated in the previous newsletter.
Oldies Signal vs. Updates:
ü Mission of GBPUSD Mandatory Path Trade of 15 pips has been Completed and the family of free pips keeps growing.
*** NO FREE SIGNAL HAS GENERATED A CLOSING LOSS***
Reminder of the trade: (check the complete signal on newsletter dated 15 June)
LONG 19796 Target 15 Pips Exact @ 19811 (Mission Completed).
Pound trade Enjoyed.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
Published on Mon, Jun 25 2007, 13:05 GMT
0
0
EURCAD Mission Completed
Thu, Jun 21 2007, 13:03 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Mission of EURCAD has been Completed
*** Please note that the below signal was completed***
Long EURCAD @ 14325 has met its 14355 Target.
June 21 - 30 Spot Trade:
Currency: EURCAD
Trade Objective: Correction on Squeezed trend line.
Chart: 1 Hr
Trade volatility: medium
Trade duration once triggered: min 1 Hr, max 8 days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
LONG 14325 Target 30 Pips Exact @ 14355
Enjoy Cad trade.
I trade with no stoploss, & instead I convert the stoploss onto an adding position of 2 levels, or I reverse the trade within a max loss of an average so far within a year of 28 pips.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
Published on Thu, Jun 21 2007, 13:03 GMT
0
0
EURCAD New Signal of 30 pips
Thu, Jun 21 2007, 06:38 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
June 21 - 30 Spot Trade:
Currency: EURCAD
Trade Objective: Correction on Squeezed trend line.
Chart: 1 Hr
Trade volatility: medium
Trade duration once triggered: min 1 Hr, max 8 days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
LONG 14325 Target 30 Pips Exact @ 14355
Enjoy Cad trade.
I trade with no stoploss, & instead I convert the stoploss onto an adding position of 2 levels, or I reverse the trade within a max loss of an average so far within a year of 28 pips.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
Published on Thu, Jun 21 2007, 06:38 GMT
0
0
GBPUSD Mandatory Path Trade of 15 pips
Mon, Jun 18 2007, 06:17 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
June 15 - 22 Spot Trade:
Currency: GBPUSD
Trade Objective: Bouncing on a Stop Loss hit.
Chart: Daily
Trade volatility: medium to high
Trade duration once triggered: min 10mn, max 4 days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Updates: Please follow its updates by visiting www.forexsurvivor.com on NonySqueakWire headlines. In case we are stuck with that trade, where probability is 3%, please email support@forexsurvivor.com (members or readers) for immediate update.
Trade the signal that triggers first, where the second signal becomes nullified.
SHORT 19591 Target 15 Pips Exact @ 19576
OR
LONG 19796 Target 15 Pips Exact @ 19811
Enjoy Pound trade.
Crude Oil & its $250/barrel Nuclear War Target
The foundation of Crude Oil target is not measured through charts or economic figures. For this specific instrument, at this specific high alert timing, you have to forget everything you learned about OB / OS, & resistances only- support is of no interest since the price will sky high towards the manoeuvrings satellites over earth (or our) - head.
Iran’s Deputy Interior Minister (M.B. Zolghadr) launched an unusually explicit threat as Iran interpreted the seven-day Negev exercise (joint US – Israel air manoeuvre) as a preparatory step for US-Israeli air attack on its nuclear sites. His threat:
Blocking the Strait of Hormuz to Oil exports from the gulf --> $250/barrel.
In my previous (Feb) newsletters, I stated the consequences of Crude Oil ForexSurvivor target towards $200/barrel. Fine then, keep holding the Long from $200 to $250 as Iranian target is fine tuned according to their exports (threats) while my target is tuned based on supply and demand. Expect $120/barrel on the first serious rocket that will hit Iran.
I wonder how citizens around the globe would cover their fuel necessities in the long run. I recall once Mr. Bush has stated that ‘US should find Crude Oil Alternative.’ Iran Oil blockade in the future might be a start for finding an Oil proxy. Till then, keep trading with the bull.
New Zealand Interest Rate @ 8%
RBNZ Intervened at the Weekly Opening - Nonsense.
RBNZ periled its own policy!
RBNZ intervened for the first time since 1985. The impact has been quite momentous but not valuable.
- It was momentous as the market was thin at the weekly opening (holiday in Australia), check EURNZD / GBPNZD / AUDNZD and
- not valuable as it is not supporting the high interest rate of 8% which demands more NZD.
Further the bank intervened against its monetary policy – intervention receives a tangible ‘spike’ moves when currency is strengthening while lowering interest rate. RBNZ raised the rate surprisingly last week, and as a consequence the intervention is nonsense.
Yet, being in an inconsistency chapter between the rate increase and the intervention, I greatly believe NZD demand has just started.
Through NonySqueakNews, the following wire was scripted:
The recent rallies of AUD, NZD and their crosses will deteriorate this week.
2007-06-04 03:47:06 GMT
RBNZ speeded ForexSurvivor analysis, intervention took place at the weekly opening, having no clue that such intervention on 11 July will coincide with the dated wire.
Weekly Signal Epitome
Best Single Forex performer this week was USDJPY (98 pips) with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by GBPJPY (65 pips); Weak performer was EURJPY (-48 pips) while GBPUSD performed weak at the beginning bulldozed (-21 pips) to be recovered by two other trades generating in the former a loss-compensation of (+21 pips) and the latter (+49 pips) screening the profit column.
The Recovery in Crude Oil allowed our OIL signal a complete figure of 112 pips.
Oldies Signal vs. Updates:
USDCAD (12 May) Retracement did not materialize yet although crude oil tumbled in the middle of the week. Retracement should be allowed to at least 4 figures before further depreciation. CAD strength is showing a sign of quench allowing a ‘dress up’ retracement towards 10975. The monthly low close for decades entails parity pricing by summer.
15 - 22 June: Correction is tedious and is hitting the market nerves. What about 10505? That level should be screened before a major correction towards 110. Let us not forget that USDCAD is trading within just few figures of par value, where Long Term ForexSurvivor target is Located for 2007.
GBPUSD BI-Monthly Free Trade of 55 pips has been cancelled.
SHORT 20000 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 19950
OR
LONG 19591 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 19646
Enjoy Pound trade.
Published on Mon, Jun 18 2007, 06:17 GMT
0
0
Rallying Pressures on Forced YEN Selling
Sun, Jun 10 2007, 13:29 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Rallying Pressures on Forced YEN Selling.
BOJ with No Intervention Anymore.
Structural Long Term (Monthly Charts) Weaknesses of EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, CADJPY, & NZDJPY is totally complete. We are looking for targets of those screened in 1988 and below, as 1998s’ yen major supports have surrendered. Allow 1000 pips tedious retreat in eurjpy and 1500 in gbpjpy (already retreated 300 pips) before we ride the continuous Elliott bull trend till Feb 2009. What does it mean for intra day trader? After yen retraces, you will not be allowed to hit the SHORT in the crosses mentioned above anymore.
USDJPY path towards 125/127/ & 130 remains our main objective this year. I am stating such path each month and 88% of our futuristic usdjpy trades would be on the bull side from now on. Intervention won’t take place in the near future, not before yen exceeds 130. But I guess the market will buzz a lot about ‘intervention’ then only to discover that usdjpy is trending solidly at ease with no shaking rumours towards 150. Are we far away from that target? I guess not, and the speed in that trend will amaze everyone. What is making that trend solid? Same stereotypes when Gold formed an ascending live mirage triangle from 200 to 750 in few weeks.
Near term the technical market indicators have overextended where! Indicators! need to correct their false OB/OS attributes of the past 6 months. Why does an indicator stay OB for weeks? I like it more when we talk about Divergence, and the price stubbornly never diverts.
Gold & its 1000 Near Term Target
Gold has been in its pennant for almost a year now. Break out is targeting the least 1000 this year. Weekly Pennant has been firmly squeezed and the burst about to be ready. Be careful, any bottom breakout of the pennant means only one way towards the sky 1000. Don’t pass this information to your friendly jewellery stores – they will hate us.
From now on, traders should get accustomed to level not seen (in decades!) and no less than 1000. Gold will reach 2000 within 2 years from now, and gone the old days of soft (low) pricing; otherwise, allow me to take a course in how US troops around the globe would be budgeted. Don’t tell me US Citizen Taxes – total concoction.
My old fellows (members / readers) know well that when I state a Long Term Target, that one never misses printing panicky in few weeks/months. Recap: You have been warned about 1000 in GOLD.
Weekly Signal Epitome
Best Signle Forex performer this week was GBPJPY (118 pips) with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by GBPNZD (101 pips); weak performer was EURJPY (-11 pips) followed by AUDUSD (-10 pips). The tumble in Equity allowed our Dow Jones signal a complete figure of 135 pips.
Oldies Signal vs. Updates:
EURJPY (12 May) angled a new yearly top. Strong Divergence is not supporting the uptrend. Allow final up tick before a vicious tumbling. The focus remains towards a vicious tumble where weekly pinnacle is a fulcrum that should spark an even greater decline back to 15800. New high every week by 20/30 pips and it is thieving to reach the top of 1998 at 16455. Knee Jerk routing implies that a top is in place.
08 - 15 June: 16455 met and the euro yen has solidly built an upward wedge that resolves sharply lower. Such plummet should chip in to a new wave targeting no less than 170. Greenspan, Bernanke, Trichet, Fukui, & Shanghai Composite Index correction did something finally to contribute to the fall, at least media traders present it that way. Take the weekly chart and draw a horizontal line at 16455, you will note that high was registered on 10/09/1998 before BOJ Intervention and caused a steep valley towards 13500. Such level (16455) is never broken from the first attempt.
USDCAD (12 May) Retracement did not materialize yet although crude oil tumbled in the middle of the week. Retracement should be allowed to at least 4 figures before further depreciation. Don’t long cad if you are squeezed.
08 - 15 June: CAD strength is showing a sign of quench allowing a ‘dress up’ retracement towards 10975. The monthly low close for decades entails parity pricing by summer (same view). The only cad cross that took the retrace was audcad and the excuse was based on how well aud data have proven strongly supportive. (RBNZ decision this week caused a retracement on NZDCAD –not CAD weakness).
AUDUSD (18 May) setback should not keep the Aussie from a solid demand targeting 8500 by then. AUD achieved a sit-back, and with some confirmation that bottom is in place, target is in the offing. We won’t go long before audjpy unwinds, which would be our first embodiment sign (same view). AUD data supportive triggered the bullish ahead of its prerequisite time.
08 - 15 June: AUD levelled well to our target without being in the trade. This is the first Long Term signal this year that we missed the bull trigger. Reason: We need audjpy to unwind before we enter the bull. Yet, once audjpy unwinds, we will Long aud like 3 figures from the high targeting the 9000, and we won’t sell that aud now to buy the low of the 3 figures , and don’t do it (I know many will) – very soft pricing for selling. A close above 8500 implies 9000 in the offing (see now why you should not be doing it).
GBPUSD BI-Monthly Trade of 55 pips has not triggered yet. Reminder of the trade:
SHORT 20000 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 19950
OR
LONG 19591 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 19646
Enjoy Pound trade.
Published on Sun, Jun 10 2007, 13:29 GMT
0
0
Yen longs mauled all May long Correction Resilient & Indecisive
Mon, Jun 4 2007, 07:29 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
The affirmative behavior with ForexSurvivor trading signal this month was related to commodity bloc from gold to aud, cad & nzd, while yen longs were mauling all month long as 3 serious ‘ Asian backtracking spikes’ were attempted at no vain to hurt the trend. Borrowing yen is costless, and the less cost it has, the more weaknesses would be engraved on board. Miss Energy was crowned on May as Crude Oil run a total of 345 pips, and the First Runner was GBPAUD (280 pips).
ForexSurvivorYen crosses Signals performed unwell & unconstructively this month where a total of 178 pips were achieved (cadjpy 41 pips, eurjpy 30.5 pips, & gbpjpy 106.5 pips), whereas usdjpy levelled lucratively to 152 pips. I am not inflating when saying ‘UNWELL.’ EURJPY used ten lots / contracts in May, up to level III survivor, and the total by the end of the month was 30.5 pips (EURJPY table below). EURJPY & GBPJPY activities had the toughest indecisive and resilient reversal trend for 3 times during May, and the end result was beer-pip relaxation.
Siding pip subjects, where in 1998 eurjpy eerily crashed dramatically from 16455 to 13600, almost piping 28 figures within only 5 days (Gone the Old Days). YOU DON’T WANT TO BE LONG EURJPY while at the same time make sure you do not translate that a repetitive history will affirm the prerequisites again in the near term. That is very controversial this year as narrowing Japan-EZ interest rate differentials remains heavy in the coming 5 months. However, a dodging bullet towards 15800 is not unrolled.
ForexSurvivor First Long Term target in USDCAD at 10700 has been marked, and our usdcad reservation trading credence (Newsletter 05 May 2007) ‘sell in May and leave!’ had a prompt canny knack. I would be careful now squeezing CAD strength further, not before
I. major retracement,
II. ‘investor vacation,’ and
III. high volatility in the field, where my next usdcad target is Parity (1.0000). We will have a fortnight pausing retracement at 10477.
Signal Epitome
Best single performer this week was EURJPY (87.5 pips) with ForexSurvivorSignals followed by GBPJPY (79.5 pips); at the same time one weak performer was a closing trade eurjpy, that consumed survivor Level III, and achieved a break eve pip.
Oldies Kryptonite:
EURJPY angled a new yearly top for a month and a week now! Strong Divergence is not supporting the uptrend. Allow final up tick before a vicious tumbling. The focus remains towards a vicious tumble where weekly pinnacle is a fulcrum that should spark an even greater decline back to 15800. This week: new high every week by 20/30 pips and it is thieving to reach the top of 1998 at 16455. Knee Jerk routing implies that a top is in place.
USDCAD Retracement did not materialize yet although crude oil tumbled in the middle of the week. Retracement should be allowed to at least 4 figures before further depreciation. Don’t long cad if you are squeezed. This week: CAD strength is showing a sign of quench allowing a ‘dress up’ retracement towards 10975. The monthly low close for decades entails parity pricing by summer.
AUDUSD setback should not keep the Aussie from a solid demand targeting 8500 by then. AUD achieved a sit-back, and with some confirmation that bottom is in place, target is in the offing. We won’t go long before audjpy unwinds, which would be our first embodiment sign (same view). This week: AUD data supportive triggered the bullish ahead of its prerequisite time. We have no long signal yet to attempt (strange, although we had Long nzdusd twice this week).
ForexSurvivor May’07 Trading Statement benchmarked Net 2082.8 pips. Best Monthly forex Performers: GBPAUD (+222 pips) followed by USDJPY (+152 pips). Weak Performers: EURJPY (+30.5 pips) followed by EURAUD (-37 pips). Grand Pip Performer was CRUDE OIL (345pips).
GBPUSD BI-Monthly Trade of 55 pips has not triggered yet. Reminder of the trade:
SHORT 20000 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 19950
OR
LONG 19591 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 19646
Enjoy Pound trade.
Published on Mon, Jun 4 2007, 07:29 GMT
0
0
GBPUSD Bi−Monthly Trade of 55 pips
Mon, May 28 2007, 05:53 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
May 27 Spot Trade:
Currency: GBPUSD
Trade Objective: Trend Pausing.
Chart: 8 Hr
Trade volatility: medium to high
Trade duration once triggered: min 1 hr, max 8 days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Updates: Please follow its updates by visiting www.forexsurvivor.com on NonySqueakWire headlines. In case we are stuck with that trade, where probability is 3%, please email support@forexsurvivor.com (members or readers) for immediate update.
Trade the signal that triggers first, where the second signal becomes nullified.
SHORT 20000 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 19945
OR
LONG 19591 Target 55 Pips Exact @ 19646
Signal Epitome
Best single performer this week was FTSE.I & GBPCAD with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by GBPAUD; the latter is performing quite well this month where a total of 222 pips were recorded so far. While Yen was still poorly performing and might be due to Reversal tactics where squeezing the price towards the best of the bottom is an approach, followed by euraud that bulldozed a loss of 37 pips. That loss will be compensated next week most probably through a new EURAUD signal.
Oldies Kryptonite:
EURJPY angled a new yearly top for a month now!. Strong Divergence is not supporting the uptrend. Allow final up tick before a vicious tumbling. The focus remains towards a vicious tumble where weekly pinnacle is a fulcrum that should spark an even greater decline back to 15800. This week: Waiting & waiting and when it winds nay down it winds aye up.
USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’ Another retracement shall be adopted, and might be higher than the previous one slightly. Allow margin for retracement before bottom-orbiting again. This week: Retracement did not materialize yet although crude oil tumbled in the middle of the week. Retracement should be allowed to at least 2 figures before further depreciation. Don’t long cad if you are squeezed.
AUDUSD setback should not keep the Aussie from a solid demand targeting 8500 by then. AUD achieved a sit-back, and with some confirmation that bottom is in place, target is in the offing. This week: we won’t go long before audjpy unwinds, which would be our first embodiment sign.
Published on Mon, May 28 2007, 05:53 GMT
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Non Forex Premise: Crude oil, Gold, & Dow
Mon, May 21 2007, 06:59 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
CAD strength continues & AUD dip for bulls
Market agitated ferociously on Friday with China events, and we are on the wonder whether China means Japan – when you visit China, make sure you have Yen monies. PBOC had a decision today, and yen exchanges (not CNY) flourished to route a spiking U behaviour when US welcomed the opening hours. With such a routing, it is worth studying our Yen Closing Trades (table bottom) to scrutinize how deficient or defiant our signals are when market faces high volatility ( and pass a visit as well next week to note the yen closing trades for the complete picture). We end up with twelve pips trading ¥ pairs, and with our open ¥ positions, we expect the charting pips to over-stretch to at least 3 figures all together next week.
Petroleum worldwide is manoeuvring a strong demand rebound than expected as OPEC supplies are reduced and global petroleum inventories are shifting to the ‘oversold’ zone in the coming months when seasonal demand rallies again. As such, Oil target has been jotted down on the 77$/barrel for this quarter. Being on the sidelines is a good strategy till that correction runs its course, then we will be looking with the Canadian at the buying level that will generate a double digit return for them to scale a good measurement in its books. Such level should be capitulating around the $60.
Gold is heading towards 5/6 weeks of long liquidation cycle, reflecting a firmer US dollar and benign inflation. ForexSurvivor target near term is $585 and has been set since 05 April - you may check that newsletter date as the strategy since then has no changes.
Equities are running towards the sky, and as soon as the news hints for a massive appalling reaction among NASDAQ, Dax, S&P, and Dow, make sure you are online triggering a ‘short’ click on the one that would show a fleeting impact. It will follow within hour on a slow motion, showing a sign of ‘why I should follow the others.’ In the end, either they are all on the long side or on the short side. I always prefer the Dow (although it is the first one that prices a quick reversal) in such a theme where 200/300 pips are squirrelly collected. A reminiscent disadvantage of such theme is that you may need to wait month(s) for this to happen.
Signal Epitome
Golden performer this week was GOLD with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by the Pound and its allies - mainly GBPAUD; while Yen was still poorly performing and might be due to Reversal tactics where squeezing the price towards the best of the bottom was an approach, followed by eursgd that bulldozed a minor spread loss.
Oldies Kryptonite:
EURJPY angled a new yearly top for a third week. Strong Divergence is not supporting the uptrend. Allow final up tick before a vicious tumbling. This week: YEN cross tested the top again, and it is proving that there is no further interest in having a long euro. The focus remains towards a vicious tumble where weekly pinnacle is a fulcrum that should spark an even greater decline back to 15800.
USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’ This week: CAD strength continues and the move adopted a small retracement as was calculated. Another retracement shall be adopted, and might be higher than the previous one slightly.
Published on Mon, May 21 2007, 06:59 GMT
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Eurjpy Crested & 15700 Near Term Target; Euraud Edifice Is Establishing Not A Nadir Yet.
Mon, May 14 2007, 06:47 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
The week started almost with no major exchanges distances between supports and resistances, and constraints in risk-reward ratio did not allow exploitation for entering trades with major pips allocation. As such, forex average closing trades were ±20 pips this week. Not that satisfactory, and even with those major events this week market was preoccupied with dullness till Thursday.
As strange as it may sound, this is the first week in 2007 where ForexSurvivor shares out so many signals with very few allocated pips, not mentioning repeating some signals twice or more.
CRUDE OIL was the best performer this week with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by commodities (aud or nzd); while Yen was poorly performing and might be due to Reversal tactics where squeezing the price towards the best of the bottom was an approach.
Pecuniary resources was the Kiwi trade which was strategically set as a counter trend signal since April 10, and target achieved 30 days later. Reminder of the ‘completed’ signal: Short nzdusd @ 7330 in an uptrend, targeting 7275.
Last week, prepared sundries emphasized the writing-off the top of the Aussie, and AUD stratagem data charted gimmickry within rollercoaster behaviour to annul the concept of no top formation. Of help, was the whopping New Jobs Data that spurs AUD higher, and puts a rate rise back on the call by June/July. Any setback should not keep the AUD from a solid demand targeting 8500 by then.
Oldies Kryptonite:
Only EURJPY angled a new yearly top, while other crosses remained below yearly high for a second week. Monthly May Candle’ tail is being on the built and the near term proviso is to trade below today’s closing week. Strong Divergence is not supporting the uptrend. Allow final up tick before a vicious tumbling.
This week: Finally, after the Golden Week was over, Asian currencies adopted the awaited bullish Yen retracement momentum.
USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’
This week: CAD strength continues and the move is adopting a small retracement for further strength.
Published on Mon, May 14 2007, 06:47 GMT
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NFP Lousy momentum snorted the rally & not to unchartered territories
Mon, May 7 2007, 06:32 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
NFP week has become very tedious and unprofitable. As a daily trader, we wait for the whole week to have the NFP released and all we get a snorting rally, not surpassing 50 pips.
Media, reports, news, and many others are exaggerating in presenting NFP for the whole week and it is becoming an exasperation module to lessen trades for a whole week just to hear in the end the usual comments: real figure and the ‘revised’ never matches.
That weekly ‘litmus test’ has no more the same trading behaviour as the old years where at least twitchy 150/300 pips were used to spike within hours. We know that G7 decided to annul spikes on launching figures, but if they want us to trade solely on Interest rate, let us know so we can pack our materials and stay comfortably at home.
Pricking that NFP lousy balloon so let my newsletter survive a reliable commentary, I like to shift my writing to the CAD analysis.
USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220 where you should add to your bearish signal or open a nice short signal as CAD strength has not terminated its BOC weekly release. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’ Unfortunately, we don’t leave as we are daily traders of so many securities around. On the other part, eurcad has traded well towards my targetwhich has been set for the long term at 14930.
Funny is why we don’t have a credence for the ‘bullish’ market?
Published on Mon, May 7 2007, 06:32 GMT
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Yen & Equities Invincibility: No Room 4 Complacency!?
Mon, Apr 30 2007, 07:23 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Yen Japanese Golden Week is usually famous by illiquidity behaviour and low volume and as such there is no respect for your supports or resistances, and closing week/month. Although the weekly close is low, and expectation to be the same during the end of April, a scary reversal move is of no escape. Coinciding with ‘end of month’ on Monday and closing books, such behaviour should lead to a vicious trend reversal in Yen & Equities, most probably next week.
No change in my view regarding such vicious reversal, and only few weird triggering are needed.
Last, Yen carry trades are exhausted, and the abated daily movements are jousted with their trend lines.
Long Term Yen crosses provisions: eurjpy, gbpjpy, nzdjpy, audjpy, & sgdjpy long term downtrend of almost 2 decades has been halted as of first quarter of 2007. The world is changing and yen can no longer be considered a ‘strong’ currency for the next 5 to 10 years. We will see levels like 350 in gbpjpy, 2.000 in eurjpy, 1.5 in dollar yen, etc… (This small provision has nothing to do with daily.weekly. trades). As for now, I am looking for eurjpy to meet 15000, even lower.
As for Equities, the same warning is implied regarding S&P, Dax, Dow, & NASDAQ. The formation of the top is a yearly one and has almost concluded. We start looking for the bottom to exist this year.
Gold As described on my newsletter dated 05 April, <<Gold is in nice daily pennant triangle. That does not mean sell top/ buy dips. Market does not let you a joy of a nice straight drawing, so expect false breaks from either side. Affording false breaks if any, 585 is of no escape. >>
Gold indeed formed a ‘false break candle bars from 16 April and for 08 days before it tumbled to 67285 as of this time of writing. Illustration of false break is seen on drawing a trendline from top 73025 dated 2006/05/12 to the top of 68880 dated 2007/02/28. Weekly close was below that formidable trendline supporting my view of 585 in the next 20 days.
*** What is not seen however is how on 05 April 2007 a false break was calculated ahead of ‘false break formation debut’ on 16 April that lasted the 08 days.
Oldies Kryptonite:
- GBPAUD 55 pips Trade: Mission Completed. (Long 24185 targeting 24240)
- ForexSurvivor EURCAD Long Term Trade is approaching its target at 14930. This Week, eurcad lowered to 15250, and at 15000 we are getting out of our long term trade. It pays being patient as its interest rate is favouring the trade. This week: No Change in View – we are on hold.
- Yen is in the last phase of its correction. Sharply resumption of its upward trend is expected within the next 3 days. This week: Only EURJPY angled a new yearly top, while other crosses remained below yearly high, and the unwinding of long yen is not muted during the Golden Week of Japan.
Published on Mon, Apr 30 2007, 07:23 GMT
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Psychological Pound Trading Week & Schizo weeks ahead
Sun, Apr 22 2007, 17:56 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Fractural Long Term Note: We would espy psychological levels in all majors in the near foreseeable future, and we would scrutinize levels not seen not in 5 or 10, but at least 15/20 years and above. Euro has started to form a wedge that will have a potential sharp decline, and the formation is only at the beginning. Once formation is complete and wedge base is broken, we will trade the resistance of that wedge for our long term target at 110, and we will add to the position on a new yearly high if made by 177 pips exact. For demonstrability, my wedge formation is not of course on the 5 min charts.
Notwithstanding persistent warnings that pound is ratcheting up towards the psycho level at 2.000 that was
- ForexSurvivor target since January 2007, and that
- Our entries levels would more be on the Long hits and very few on the Short hits
I was surprised to receive plenty of recommendations on how to ‘Survive’ Short sterling around 197/198.
801 pips from GBPUSD have been achieved since January 2007. The lowest level seen among my trades signal is 19218 and the highest is 20090, which is equal to 872 pips. Mmm… GBPUSD had been convincingly ForexSurvivor friend along its trend so far this year.
Revising those trades myself, I am swimmingly surprised that none bulldozed the thirty to fifty scales ForexSurvivor average loss per signal. You may note as well that only Short signals required ‘surviving’ signal tactic.
Since we have approached the pound psycho level, I would re-pass briefly the Pound Letter that was launched on January 2007, so you may reconsider a better strategy for your short trades.
Published on Sun, Apr 22 2007, 17:56 GMT
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GBPAUD 55 pips Trade
Sun, Apr 22 2007, 12:30 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Currency: GBPAUD
Trade Objective: Short Term Trend Follower
Chart: daily
Trade volatility: High
Trade duration once triggered: min 2 Hr mn, max 8 days.
Broker Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Updates: Please follow its updates by visiting www.forexsurvivor.com on NonySqueakWire headlines. In case we are stuck with that trade, where probability is 2%, please email support@forexsurvivor.com (members or readers) for immediate update.
LONG 24185 targeting 24240
Published on Sun, Apr 22 2007, 12:30 GMT
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European securities' facing new high pricing measures as Presidential Election is approaching
Sun, Apr 15 2007, 08:10 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
MAJORS MAJORING NEW HIGHS (LOWS)
Euro running new yearly highs, so Pound should; the latter is on the way to the psycho level of 2.000, and so Dollar should (new Low). But when? Why the market always reaches psychological levels when liquidity is low or volume is low? Does it mean then that the market is pricing levels that are not correlated with fundamentals issues? Very true so.
Market depleted euro long term downtrend of almost 12 years, and the weekly close today is pivotal. Either 330 pips up or down, are the next short term trend target.
I would prefer the short trend to gain access to 13700 at least so the *trap* would be filled enormously with bulls, where media buzz accelerates the target to 160 – France near term election will add the pressure on new highs. ForexSurvivor Euro Long Term Target is 110, and such momentum gains a debut movement after France election. My target preference is reachable by all means.
ForexSurvivor will pass a splashing hint in one of its Newsletter between April & March as to when Our Long Term EURO trend takes effect towards 110.
Equities behaviour is not compelling my expectations. They have the run towards new yearly highs, where some have already did like DAX, and awaiting S&P, so to correct the high of the sudden false disarrays that took place last month. Recall: Dow tumbled as it screened falsely last month; nice evasion to present to traders.
Published on Sun, Apr 15 2007, 08:10 GMT
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G7 & Low Liquidity Trading for Easter
Thu, Apr 5 2007, 16:46 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Briefly, and before Easter Holiday, I have the inclination to present my open securities in very short and solid studies.
- G7 speculation last time has triggered Yen Strength. G7 this time has not the same agendum, and till then Yen Rollercoaster Craze is a ride of no forget.
- AUD is expected to retrace 150 pips the least.
- EURCHF – Topped, OB again on monthly charts, and a buy dip is a nice idea for a ‘camping trip’ towards 1.7
- EURNZD striving its year lows and momentum is extremely bearish. 18823 is in the offing.
- Dax, has approached its yearly high, and from here with some help of other equities, vicious tumble is to be gauged by mid April, maybe further than the mid a bit.
- Gold is in nice daily pennant triangle. That does not mean sell top/ buy dips. Market does not let you a joy of a nice straight drawing, so expect false breaks from either side. Affording false breaks if any, 585 is of no escape.
Oldies Kryptonite:
Oil & its correction: In my previous Newsletter, I entangled short details about Oil and my Political View. Specifically I have mentioned that “Our long Term trades has translated the tension ahead of time, and correction (short term) is expected after the weekend.” This Week: Indeed Oil Correction took place after the weekend and the situation with Iran calmed down. Had I known that my Oil Correction View will let the situation calm down with Iran, then I should be hoping to be living and trading in an Oil Correction Cycle all the time.
Tread Carefully: The market narrowed its wave to 23900 which should be corrected to 24100.
This Week: GBPCHF screened finally 24100 and the Long Term GBPCHF trade has been closed.
Published on Thu, Apr 5 2007, 16:46 GMT
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Does Iran benefit when Oil is expensive?
Sat, Mar 31 2007, 21:14 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Does Iran benefit when Oil is expensive?
Of course it does. And Oil trend is becoming more beneficial to Iran.
What is wrong with Iran and its Nuclear Issue, and how is affecting the market?
Politically speaking, it is a worrying issue, but in reality it is not.
Worrying issues: If there is a decision about having a worldwide war with Iran, we would encounter un-thinkable consequences on crude oil, US, and especially Japan since the latter highly relies on oil. It won’t be an Iraq army-war as much as a well burning-oil effect on all sort of industries. Result: Rapid crashing businesses and number one would be Technology Sector before transportation sector.
Reality: US is not planning to plunge itself with expensive oil damages that might be a good cause of Iran war, at least yet. If the US is ready to bear oil expensive consequences, its margin may be endurable for $100/barrel, which is a near term target anyway.
The consequence of Iran was tested murmuringly this week [Iran fired at a US ship (rumor)] where oil reached $68/barrel, and then the move gave up its test where oil backed to $63 (Thursday). Any serious tension with Iran, expect oil to reach $200/barrel within a rapid move of countable –finger days. Something I consider a ‘suicide’ strategic plan for the US, and no ‘survival’ method to catch that trend in a bearish market.
Our long Term trades has translated the tension ahead of time, and correction (short term) is expected after the weekend.
To finalize, higher oil prices is negative for the dollar (because it is harmful to the US economy) and eurusd target becomes lower than 13700. This is valid as long as oil prices rise much further; it seems such move is foreseeable future raise.
Euro wave between 13200 and 13700 is going to be misconstrued and lot of media trend up buzz will be stubborn towards 160, and since April is the month where long term traders position themselves for summer time, a nice trap is on the built. Remind me when September shows up! Long term EURUSD target is 110 and not 160, and that view will be updated by mid Jun. Confirmation of 110 is when euro starts screening below 13100.
Question for Analysis: why the US would need the oil price to be expensive?
Asia competitive market has the answer.
Published on Sat, Mar 31 2007, 21:14 GMT
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Commodities Currencies and their Top Superfluous Stubbornness.
Sat, Mar 24 2007, 07:33 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Why the market is lost in Commodities Behaviours?
Commodities currencies week it was. AUD & NZD are stubbornly heading back to tops where the market rejected twice at least. NZD Fibo 0.7135 should be an aggressively sell level, but I am not convinced with this bearish approach yet, especially after visiting back the tops, as 10 year NZD and US rates continues to remain supportive for NZDUSD and is preventing the meltdown that I am calling for. AUD consolidation this week at the high implies that a visit towards 8200 is in the offing.
Adrenalin effects on Equities have spurred their ups in a rapid manner. All in all, when DOW screened falsely on the screen and caused manoeuvrings damages to other equities, bold correction is to take place. Thus, equities will keep up trending for now, with slight high afterwards, before a vicious tumble again by mid April the most.
Pound is in exciting mood of ‘chopping,’ and still has few days of trimming between 19777 and 19450, before heading to 2.010. Although commodities currencies (AUD) are to price expensively in the days ahead, GBPAUD is seen to work against commodities will where 5 figures are noted to be formed in an upward channel.
Euro Long term analysis is in the formation of peaking. And peaking does not mean one figure or two. Be careful Long term Clients, lots of frustrations about Euro analysis will take the lead in the days ahead.
Although this week’s FOMC was superfluously dollar supportive, all levels above 13333 are misconstrued, & we will leave in fantasy world if euro pricing reaches 14300.
I still want the dollar to change hand at €13025/60.Oldies Kryptonite
Tread Carefully: GBPCHF: 24100 should be temporary holding the ups where an avowed exit is intent. The market narrowed its wave to 23900 which should be corrected to 24100. This Week: after reaching low of 23400, the pair levelled up back to 23900, where GBP should still have to exchange hand at 24100 CHF.
Bi-monthly trade – Mission Completed: SHORT 15558 targeting 15503
EURCAD records my target at 15503 and as the currency spread is over 9 pips, position was not closed, and I have no intention to close it manually. As such, trade is still open. This Week: The market triggered the target un-manually as expected, thus achieving 55 pips, and the bi-monthly family trades are growing lucratively.
Published on Sat, Mar 24 2007, 07:33 GMT
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Why the market is lost in Equities Behaviours?
Fri, Mar 23 2007, 08:34 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Simply put, a long Term Trend needs a sudden tumble.
Equities have not tumbled to the utmost yet. All in all, at least 50% Fibo should be reached or support MA200 to hold for few days/week before new low than 2006’s is seen. That is technical. However, fundamentally speaking, there is no better news than the technical. That view just presented is not mine, as you know I trade based on my OCTOPUS formula that comprises neither technical nor fundamental figures. Besides, my target in equities is lower than 2006 low and that mentioned on my December newsletter 2006.
Euro new high move in the last 3 days was pip by pip, and that has a good correlation with the trend in the weeks ahead.
My view for the European and the US market argues well with the technical and fundamental pictures that the media is presenting. US economic growth is about to be picked up again, and as soon as it climbs the ladder, we would note a reinforcement in the dollar. Such dollar (usdjpy) support has a 125 /127 /130 as a consequence, and the euro down-swings towards 116/110.
Amazingly though, & as I usually call my EURCHF trade a ‘turtle,’ that slow motion movement gave me hard time to catch. Who can not catch a turtle? Believe me, I tried, and found out that I needed help of 2 and even 3 ‘Survivors’ to support my turtle trade argument. When I longed it, I had to survive it to reverse, and when I reversed it, I had to survive it to go back to long, and such movement was traded 4 times to accumulate only a lucrative amount of pips equal 14. In the end, it was an enjoyable positive trade, though it was not worth the time and margin. Yet, I am preparing a ‘compensating’ one again in the near term.
Conclusion: Even 1 pip in the market so to be achieved, and / or with a slow currency movement like eurchf / eurgbp (or low volatility), needs a lot of studies and calculations before traded. That is why cautious and well implemented ‘Survivor’ entries are needed.
Oldies Kryptonite
Tread Carefully:
GBPCHF: 24900 should be screened within less than 7 days. That view has not changed but it would be delayed due to the sell off in equities and FTSE, where we should be waiting for Long Term Traders to reposition themselves (24100 should be temporary holding the ups where an avowed exit is an intent). This Week: The market narrowed its wave to 23900 which should be corrected to 24100.
Euro has not met yet 13025/60 which is a good target. It is on the way, but might chop towards the top first with a new weekly high. This Week: The market marked new high on a basis of one pip at a time, and it is depriving the screen of 13025/60 for the second week. There is no third week.
Bi-monthly trade of 55 pips Short position triggered. Reminder of the trade:
LONG 15203 targeting 15258, or SHORT 15558 targeting 15503
And the market squeezes again my target between 1 and 10 pips. EURCAD records my target at 15503 and as the currency spread is over 9 pips, position was not closed, and I have no intention to close it manually. As such, trade is still open.
Published on Fri, Mar 23 2007, 08:34 GMT
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Yen weakness has tired trader! Where to?
Tue, Mar 20 2007, 17:37 GMT
by Anthony Samaha
Today's (Friday) Major move would be reversed on Monday
Since October 2006, and almost in each Weekly Newsletter, I am launching headline warning that there is nothing wrong about yen weakness anymore.
And today 23 Feb 2007 I pass the same warning; yen weakness has not ended yet. Some corrections are due and should be considered ‘opportunity’ for healthier weaknesses. BUY signal is not green yet. We should see yen crosses screening numbers not seen for decades, and should be well away from what the market points at by at least 800 pips. Only then wider slow correction to take place. The correction would not be of ‘immediate plunge’ but rather a very slow trading behaviour where professionals would be nervous enough to shift to other currencies as they won’t be able to afford the lull some trading against rollover / interest rate yen charges.
Why slow correction? Follow my futuristic yen trade, and result would be shown by itself. Today is a correction till Chinese vacation is over, then back again, Yen Weakness on the screens.
OIL: Bottom about to be established, and as we are approaching Middle East high tensions in the next days/week, a rally on the radar towards $70 should be hinted as ‘tensed.’
Tread Carefully: GBPCHF: 24900 should be screened within less than 23 days.
What happened with my last Free Trades?
- Starting with Agape USDCAD Trade of 25 pips the market liked my long entry level at 11655 to be triggered on AGAPE occasion on 14 February, and it took 4 days to meet its target, as per my expectation.
- The GBPUSD Mandatory Trade of 15 pips still valid. Triple the position for the Long Trade, and keep the double on the short side. Trade Reminder:
LONG 19750 OR SHORT 19388è Target 15 Pips Exact (19765 or 19373)
Enjoy Pound trade. - Finally, in my last week newsletter 16 Feb, a Tread Carefully was launched:
Tread carefully: EURO 13025 & Yen 12130 would be seen within less than 8 days
And here we are, Yen met 12130 when it was between 11900 and 11950, and euro did not tunnel down to 13025 when it was 13150 yet (at least till this time of writing the report at 14:35 GMT), but the target still there at 13025, most probably before Wednesday.
Next Week newsletter, our Free Mandatory Path Trade of 15 pips is due.
Published on Tue, Mar 20 2007, 17:37 GMT
Archive
- ForexSurvivor Weekly Weekend Newsletter 29 June
Published On Sun, Jun 29 2008, 20:08 GMT - ForexSurvivor Weekly Weekend Newsletter 16 May
Published On Sun, May 18 2008, 19:32 GMT - What is the missing factor between Technical & Fundamental?
Published On Mon, May 5 2008, 07:13 GMT - Euro-Bund: Keep the Bund Bungee-Jumping
Published On Sun, Apr 27 2008, 18:14 GMT - Weekly Newsletter: EURUSD Long Term Target Set @ 2.0000
Published On Mon, Apr 21 2008, 05:37 GMT
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