EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Low volume limits price discovery credibility, not this time! (MTUC4901)

Low liquidity that is normal during the US's 4th of July week, the reduced trading activity that precedes ECB and BoE meetings and the total reluctance to deal ahead of the monthly US employment report has contributed to the relatively dramatic moves in EUR, USD and JPY. But, the real driving force behind the moves comes from the market disappointment regarding the eurozone initiatives that were announced at the end of the eurozone summit. The Germans are squirming and the Fins are down right negative. The environment is not risk positive and the drop in equities and the jump in JPY highlight the markets desire to eliminate risk from their portfolios as much as possible. While the liquidity of the market would normally cloud the price discovery realized this week, the turn in attitudes that has been stimulated by events this week suggest that there is more to the decline than just a low volume sell-off. M.B.