http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-11-17.htmlLonger term in eur/$, way back in March and the market just above the Oct 2008 low at 1.2335, said there was scope gains all the way back to the Dec high at 1.4715 (top of range) and even slightly above as part of a longer term period of wide ranging. The market did indeed rally past that Dec high and currently is chopping near the ceiling of the year long bullish channel (currently at 1.5050/00). See the market as in the process of forming a major top , and with eventual declines towardTue, 17 Nov 2009 17:06:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-11-16.htmlCable continues to trade in the wide, 1.5710/1.7040 range that has been in place since Aug. Note that the 5 wave fall from the 1.7040 high (see numbering on daily chart below) suggests that this multi-month period of ranging is not yet “complete”, and targets eventual declines back toward the base at 1.5710 (and potentially below, see longer term). Nearer term however, there are still no firm signs of a top of that magnitude is in place, leaving open scope for more topping and potentially evenMon, 16 Nov 2009 06:42:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-11-04.htmlNo change in the longer term view in $/swiss as the market is seen completing (or nearly) the 5 wave fall from the March high at 1.1965, and potentially the whole fall from the Nov 2008 high at 1.2295 (wave C, see numbering on weekly chart below). Also, the weekly macd is near to giving a new buy signal, adding to this view (see bottom of weekly chart below). This in turn suggests that a potentially major low is in place, with eventual gains toward the previously broken trendline from JuneWed, 04 Nov 2009 06:13:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-30.htmlIn the Oct 23rd email on the a$, affirmed the long position (rebought on Aug 20th .8310) and despite trading above the key rising trendline/ceiling of the large rising wedge from Jan (then support), warned of near term concerns (and risk of throw-over, false break). The market did indeed reverse back below there the next day, breaking below the stop at .9150 (closed at .8970 for a 440 tick profit), and spiking the way down to a low at .8945 (50% retracement from the Oct 2nd low at .8575, seeFri, 30 Oct 2009 05:55:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-28.htmlNo change in the view in the s&p 500 as the market continues to form a large rising wedge since last March. These are seen as reversal patterns that resolve sharply lower, and suggests an eventual downside resolution of the base. However, there is scope for a final upleg back to last week’s high at 1101.52 and even the 1115/25 area first, where lots of important, longer term resistance all meet (including the bearish trendline and 50% retracement from the Oct 2007 high at 1576, as well asWed, 28 Oct 2009 06:53:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-27.htmlIn the Oct 20th email on eur/$ , affirmed the long position (rebought on Sept 29th email at 1.4590) but warned that risk was rising rapidly (lots of important, longer term resistance, see below, bear divergence on the daily macd, etc.). Said to use a very aggressive stop on an intraday break below the bullish trendline from early Oct, as it could trigger a further downside acceleration. Warned about that key support numerous times since. The market has just tumbled below there (currently atTue, 27 Oct 2009 05:51:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-20.htmlLonger term in the S&P 500, the 5 wave fall from the Oct 2007 high at 1576 (see numbering on weekly chart below) suggests that the gain from the March low at 667 is a correction, and with an eventual resumption of the declines to new lows after. Also, the market is forming a large rising wedge since March, generally seen as a reversal pattern that resolves sharply lower, and adds weight to the view of an eventual, downside reversal. However as been warning for quite some time, there areTue, 20 Oct 2009 06:40:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-08.htmlIn cable, the longer term view is unchanged as the last few months of choppy trade is seen as topping, forming a bearish head and shoulders over that time . Though this suggests an eventual downside resolution, there is scope for another week of 2 of ranging/nearer term upside within the pattern first (see “ideal” scenario in red on weekly chart below). Note too that the macd has recently given a new sell signal (see bottom of weekly chart below), adding weight to the view that a week or 2 ofThu, 08 Oct 2009 15:51:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-01.htmlThe long held, longer term bearish view in the $ index remains in place. But risk is rising rapidly for at least 3-4 months of correcting higher and minimum 5-6 point bounce (and potentially much more) , as the market is within the final downleg in the whole fall from the March high (wave V). Note too that the market appears to be forming a falling wedge/bottoming pattern over the last few months, seasonal charts bottom around the mid Oct the timeframe (see 3rd chart below), and time cyclesThu, 01 Oct 2009 16:37:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-10-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-25.htmlThe longer term bullish view in eur/$ for nearly the last year, of an extended period of wide ranging, is finally coming near its completion (not quite there yet). Last March and the market just above the Oct 2008 low at 1.2335 (base of the range), said that longer term gains all the way back to the ceiling (Dec high at 1.4715) was favored, and the market has indeed recently reached those levels. View a major top (at least 10 big figures and more likely declines all the way back toward theFri, 25 Sep 2009 06:32:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-23.htmlIn the $ index, the long held, longer term bearish view remains in place, but the market is within the final downleg in the whole fall from the March high at 89.60 (wave V). Though this suggests at least 3-4 months of correcting higher and a minimum 5-6 rally after its completion (and potentially much more), the final bottom is likely not yet in place. As been mentioning, important time cycles across a number of final markets reverse in the mid Oct timeframe, while the seasonal chart for the $Wed, 23 Sep 2009 14:35:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-15.htmlLonger term in eur/gbp , the market has broken above key resistance at the bearish trendline from Dec 2008 (currently at .8770/80), aborting the view of a final downleg below .8400, and suggesting that an important bottom is already in place . Note too that the market may have completed a large, 3 wave correction from Dec (A-B-C, see numbering on weekly chart below) suggesting new highs above .9800, while the weekly macd has recently given a new buy signal (see bottom of weekly chart), addingTue, 15 Sep 2009 14:34:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-14.htmlNo change in the long held, longer term view in eur/gbp as the market continues to form a large falling wedge since last Dec, generally seen as a reversal pattern and suggesting an eventual upside resolution (likely sharp). However as been warning for months, these patterns break down into 5 legs and currently targets a final fall back to the June low at .8405 and even the base of the pattern first (currently at .8245/60, see “ideal” scenario in red on weekly chart below). So for now, wouldMon, 14 Sep 2009 09:35:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-09.htmlView in eur/$ over the last few months of an extended period of ranging with a slight upward bias, remains in place. Still appear to be forming a large rising wedge since June, seen as a topping pattern that resolves sharply lower. However, these patterns break down into 5 legs, leaving open scope for another few weeks of wide ranging within the pattern first (see “ideal” scenario in red on daily chart below). Note too, time cycles in a number of other financial markets are pointing to aWed, 09 Sep 2009 05:48:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-03.htmlThe S&P 500 is heavy after yesterday’s break below the bullish trendline since July, a near term negative sign and suggesting at least some further downside over the next few days/week. Note too that the market is overbought after the sharp gains since March while the macd has just given a new sell signal. However, there are no signs “patternwise” that a more important top is in place, while the market also be forming a large rising wedge since March. These patterns break down into 5 legsThu, 03 Sep 2009 05:47:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-09-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-08-27.htmlCable has turned lower, taking out key support at 1.6265/80 (both the base of the bullish channel since June and the Aug 17th low), and raising the potential for a further downside acceleration ahead. From an Elliott Wave perspective, note the series of subwaves over the last few weeks, and adds to the potential for a large tumble from here within wave iii of 3 in the fall from the Aug 5th high at 1.7040 (often the most “explosive” part of a larger cycle, see numbering on daily chart below).Thu, 27 Aug 2009 06:42:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-08-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-08-20.htmlCable has corrected lower from the Aug 5th high at 1.7040 and remains overbought after the sharp gains from the Jan low at 1.3505. Though this suggests that bigger picture risk is high for at least another few months of correcting lower (see longer term below), there are no signs “pattern-wise” that a top of that magnitude is in place. This in turn argues further wide ranging, and even new highs (though may be limited) before the final top is seen. Note too that the market remains contained byThu, 20 Aug 2009 05:37:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-08-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-08-14.htmlView in the $ index remains unchanged as the market is seen within an extended period of downward ranging, and as the bigger picture downside momentum since June continues to slow. Though potentially seen as part of a longer term bottoming (see longer term below), the final bottom is likely not yet in place, and suggests more of this chopping and at least marginal new lows ahead (possibly forming a falling wedge, see “ideal” scenario in red on daily chart below). Short from the Aug 4th resellFri, 14 Aug 2009 05:43:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-08-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-08-04.htmlLonger term in the S&P 500, the 5 wave fall from the Oct 2007 high at 1576.06 (see numbering on weekly chart below) argues that the gain from the March low at 666.92 is a large correction, and with eventual new lows below there after. I stress the word “eventual”, because the shape/pattern of this large correction remains in question. Could see another few months of upward ranging before forming a major top, or could see another 6-9 months of wide ranging (with little more on the upside),Tue, 04 Aug 2009 06:32:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-08-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-31.htmlUS 10yr note futures are chopping downward since the July 10th high/test of longer term resistance at 119/00 (38% retracement from the Dec high at 128/22), and may be forming a wedge-like pattern over that time. Generally, these patterns break down into 5 legs before resolving higher (see “ideal” scenario in red on daily chart below). Note too that seasonal charts are pointing higher through the end of the year (see longer term and 3rd chart below), adding some weight to the view of an upsideFri, 31 Jul 2009 06:34:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-24.htmlIn the July 13th email on $/cad affirmed the short position (sold on July 9th at 1.1625). The market has continued to tumble since, today taking out support at the bullish trendline since Nov 2007 (currently at 1.0925/50), on way toward the June 1st low at 1.0790 and possibly below. Though there are no signs of even a short term bottom, the market is clearly oversold after its 2 week, 900 tick tumble and with risk rising for a good sized bounce at virtually any time. In order to maintain aFri, 24 Jul 2009 06:24:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-21.htmlThe long held, longer term bearish bias in the $ index remains in place as trade from the early June low at 78.35 is seen as a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the March 4th high at 89.60), and with eventual new lows after (within wave 5, see “ideal” scenario in red on weekly chart below). Note however that such a break to new lows below 78.35 would be seen as the final downleg in the whole decline from last March. Switched the longer term bias to the bearish side on the early March “falseTue, 21 Jul 2009 06:11:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-20.htmlIn the July 9th email on $/cad, said to short (then at 1.1625) as the numerous negatives suggested that the market was topping. The market did indeed tumble soon after, accelerating below key support at both the multi-week rising wedge and the bullish trendline since June (see daily chart below), and is currently trying to consolidate from its recent low at 1.1120. With no signs “pattern-wise” of a bottom (at least so far), further declines are favored. However, the market is near termMon, 20 Jul 2009 06:12:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-15.html$/yen has bounced from yesterday’s slight new low, and test of support at the base of the bearish channel since April at 91.65/80. Though there is scope for another few days of consolidating and even slightly higher prices, trade from that recent low is seen as a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the June high at 98.85), and with an eventual resumption of the declines to new lows after (within wave 5, see “ideal” scenario in red on daily chart below). Note too the similar outlook and highWed, 15 Jul 2009 08:40:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-07.htmlIn the June 30th email on $/yen, said that the 5 wave fall from the June 5th high at 98.85 (see numbering on daily chart below) argued that the week of upside was a correction, and with a resumption of the longer term declines after. Shorted there (then at 96.40) but warned of another day or 2 of topping and even further slight new highs first. The market did indeed a slight new high the next day at 96.95 but has since turned lower, accelerating on today’s break below the bullish trendlineTue, 07 Jul 2009 07:03:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-07-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-29.htmlThe Dow Jones Industrial Average is bouncing from last week’s test of the mid May lows near 8200/50, and after the fall from the June 11th high at 8878.  However, the market remains overbought after the sharp gains since the March low at 6470 (see sell mode on daily macd at bottom of chart below), the fall from the 8878 high occurred in 5 waves (see shorter term chart at www.fxa.com/solin/comments.htm ), and the market may be forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern for nearly theMon, 29 Jun 2009 22:25:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-18.htmlNo change in the view on the $ index as trade from the June 3rd low at 78.35 is seen as a correction, and with an eventual resumption of the longer term declines after. May be forming a pennant/triangle, generally seen as a “continuation” pattern and adding weight to the view eventual new lows. Nearer term however, these patterns break down into 5 legs, leaving open scope for more ranging within the pattern first (see “ideal” scenario in red on daily chart below). So for now, would wait forThu, 18 Jun 2009 05:18:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-17.htmlNo change in the bigger picture view in gold as the 3 wave fall from the Feb high at $1007.70 (a-b-c, see numbering on daily chart below), suggests that trade over the last 4 months is a large correction, and with eventual new highs after.  Currently, the market is chopping from the Monday test of key support near $925/30 (both a 50% retracement from the April low at $865 and the bullish trendline from last Oct).  Though the confidence level that this area will provide an importantWed, 17 Jun 2009 22:53:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-09.html$/mxn is chopping higher from the May 20th low at 12.8265, and after the fall from the March high at 15.5890.  From an Elliott Wave perspective, the market appears to be within wave iii of the larger wave 3 from the 12.8265 low (see numbering on daily chart below).  These are often the most “explosive” part within a move, and raises potential for a further upside acceleration toward 14.20/22 (50% retracement from the 15.5890 high) and even above ahead.  Note too that technicalsTue, 09 Jun 2009 22:23:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-05.htmlIn the May 28th email on the $ index , affirmed the short position (sold on April 27th at 85.60), but warned that further new lows below 79.80 may be limited. The market did indeed weaken from there, reaching a new low at 78.35 this past Wednesday, and before quickly bouncing. With the market oversold after the sharp declines since April, risk is rising for at least another few weeks of correcting higher . Note too that the daily macd is near to giving a new buy signal (see bottom of dailyFri, 05 Jun 2009 15:47:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-02.v02.htmlNearer term in the May 22nd email on $/swiss , affirmed the short position (resold on May 4th at 1.1320) and the market has continued lower, currently trading near levels not seen since last Dec. Though there are still no signs of even a short term bottom “pattern-wise” raising scope for further downside, the market may be forming a falling wedge-like pattern for over the last month (generally seen as a bottoming pattern). Note too that the market is oversold after the sharp declines sinceTue, 02 Jun 2009 14:42:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-06-02.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-28.htmlFrom a longer term perspective in the US 10yr note futures , the market continues to tumble since the Dec test of the ceiling of the bullish channel from Jan 2000.  In general, the long held view of an extended period (years) of wide ranging with a slight upward bias, and within the large bullish channel that has been forming since Jan 2000, remains in place.  This market view also fits the “economic” view over the last year that the US has likely entered an extended period (at leastThu, 28 May 2009 22:18:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-27.htmlIn the May 13th email on $/cad and the market bouncing from a retest of the Nov low at 1.1470/80, said that the downside pattern was not “complete”, and with a resumption of the longer term declines to new lows favored after.  Unfortunately, did not reach the sell target at 1.1865 (reached 1.1815), before reversing sharply lower and taking out those 1.1470/80 lows (Nov/May 11th).  Currently, the market is quickly nearing important, longer term support at 1.1050/00 (both the bullishWed, 27 May 2009 22:18:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-20.htmlIn the May 13th email on the $ index , affirmed the bearish view (short from the April 27th sell at 85.60), and the market has continued lower since, today breaking below the May 13th low at 81.90, and to levels not seen since Jan. With no signs of even a short term bottom “pattern-wise” and technicals that remain negative (macd still in sell mode, see bottom of daily chart below), further downside toward the long held target at 80.10/20 (50% from the March 2008 low at 70.70, a retracementWed, 20 May 2009 15:10:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-14.htmlIn the May 5th email on $/yen , affirmed the view that an important top was in place at the Apr 6th high at 101.40 (completed A-B-C, irregular correction from the Dec low at 87.15) and with eventual declines all the way back to the 87.15 low and even below . Shorted there (then at 98.95) and the market has indeed fallen sharply since, on way toward 94.25/35 (50% retracement from the 87.15 low, base of the 5 month bullish channel) and below. On a very near term basis however, the market isThu, 14 May 2009 16:29:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-13.htmlIn the May 5th email on the $ index , affirmed the short position (sold on April 27th at 85.60), and the market has indeed continued lower, breaking below the March 19th low at 82.65 (to levels not seen since early Jan), on way toward 80.10/20 (50% retracement from the March 2008 low at 70.70) next. Though the downside pattern is still not “complete” suggesting further downside, the market is nearing oversold after the last few weeks of declines and is starting to raise the risk for a 250 tickWed, 13 May 2009 16:34:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-06.htmlEur/yen has bounced sharply from the April 28th spike low at 124.40.   However, the 5 wave decline from the Apr 6th high at 137.40 (see numbering on daily chart below) suggests that these recent gains are a correction, and with an eventual resumption of the declines back to the 124.40 low and even below after.   Currently, the market is chopping from its recent high at 132.85, potentially completing an important top and suggesting a resumption of the bigger picture declinesWed, 06 May 2009 22:18:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-01.htmlEur/$ continues to chop in tighter and tighter ranges since the Oct low at 1.2335, supported by the bullish trendline since that low (currently at 1.2525), and capped by the bearish trendline from Dec (currently at 1.3330). Note that the market has reversed lower after the earlier spike above that resistance (also a 50% retracement from the March 19th high at 1.3735), potentially forming a bearish “false break” , and raising potential for declines back to the Apr 22nd low at 1.2890 and evenFri, 01 May 2009 08:03:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-05-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-04-22.v02.htmlEur/$ continues to chop in tighter and tighter ranges since the Oct low at 1.2335, supported by the bullish trendline since that low (currently at 1.2525), and capped by the bearish trendline from Dec (currently at 1.3330). Note that the market has reversed lower after the earlier spike above that resistance (also a 50% retracement from the March 19th high at 1.3735), potentially forming a bearish “false break” , and raising potential for declines back to the Apr 22nd low at 1.2890 and evenWed, 22 Apr 2009 16:04:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-04-22.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-04-22.htmlIn the April 2nd email on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, said that at least some further upside was favored as the pattern not “complete”. Reached the buy target a few days later at 7850/75, but said to use an aggressive trailing stop on a close below the bullish trendline from early Oct, as further new highs may be limited and part of a larger topping. The market did indeed continue to chop higher, testing key resistance at the ceiling of the bearish channel from Oct (last week’s high atWed, 22 Apr 2009 05:54:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/d.solin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2009-04-22.html