http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-02-10.htmlIn the Feb 1st email on eur/yen, said want to be long but with risk for further ranging nearby, to wait for a break above the bearish trendline from Nov 1st before entering. Broke above there on Tue (then at 101.30, closed at 101.75), getting long. The market has rallied further since, breaking above the Jan high at 102.20, toward 104.00/15 (50% retracement from the Oct high at 111.35), and potentially much higher ahead. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the market is seen within wave 3 or CFri, 10 Feb 2012 06:10:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-02-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-02-08.htmlNo change in the bearish view $ index, as the Jan high at 81.80 is still seen completing the upmove from the Oct low at 74.75 (and potentially the whole upmove from the May low at 74.75), and with at least another month (and potentially more, see longer term below) of downside ahead. Note that the upmove from Oct lasted nearly 3 months while this correction has lasted about 3 weeks so far, and does not appear to have been long enough "time-wise", while technicals remain negative (see sell modeWed, 08 Feb 2012 06:24:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-02-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-01-24.html As been discussing in the longer term for $/yen, the market (along with yen crosses) may be the big mover in 2012, as the market continues to form a huge falling wedge since 2007. These are seen as reversal patterns that often resolve sharply higher, and raises the potential for a major bottom (for at least 12-18 months or more, see weekly chart below). Earlier today, the market broke above that ceiling (currently at 77.40/60, see shorter term below) and with a close above increasing theTue, 24 Jan 2012 20:05:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-01-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-01-17.htmlIn the Jan 10th email on eur/$, said despite positives starting to appear, there was still no signs of a bottom "pattern-wise", in turn suggesting at least some further downside.  Resold there (then at 1.2775), and the market has indeed continued to chop lower, reaching a low at 1.2625 last week.  But many positives remain, including slowing downside momentum/technicals not confirming the recent lows (see daily macd at bottom of chart below), potential falling wedge/reversal patternTue, 17 Jan 2012 16:38:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-01-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-01-13.htmlLonger term in $/yen, view the market (and overall yen) as the potential big mover in 2012, as it continues to form a huge falling wedge since 2007. These are seen as reversal patterns that resolve sharply higher, and suggests an eventual upside resolution of the ceiling (currently at 77.50/00) and likely bottom for at least 12-18 months (or more) may be nearing. But with no firm signs of a shorter term low so far (see shorter term below), there remains scope for more basing and potentiallyFri, 13 Jan 2012 19:37:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-01-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-01-09.htmlIn the US 10yr note yield, no change as the 5 wave rally from the Sept low at 1.67% (see numbering on daily chart below), continues to argue that the upside is not "complete", and with eventual gains back to the Oct high at 2.42% and even above. Note too that this also fits the bullish "risk" market view over the next month or 2 (would likely lead to a higher yield). So for now, would get long yield here/sell notes (currently at 1.96%). Initially use a wide stop on a close below the bullishMon, 09 Jan 2012 06:34:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-01-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-01-05.htmlLonger term in cable, the market continues to trade in tighter and tighter ranges since the Jan 2009 low at 1.3505, likely forming a large pennant/triangle over that time, and with eventual gains toward the ceiling (currently at 1.6600/50) favored. Currently, the market is chopping near bullish trendline May 2010 (currently at 1.5450/1.5550) and with 2 potential scenarios. 1) this area holds, and forms an important low, or 2) the market breaks below with further declines toward the 3 yearThu, 05 Jan 2012 16:19:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2012-01-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-30.htmlIn the Dec 16th email on eur/yen, affirmed the short position (resold on Dec 12th at 102.65), and long held target at the Oct low at 100.80 and below. The market has indeed continued lower since, breaking below that 100.80 low, and earlier reaching a level not seen in over 11 years. But the market is seen potentially nearing a more major bottom (see longer term below), and may also be forming a smaller falling wedge since Oct (generally seen as a reversal pattern that resolves sharply higher).Fri, 30 Dec 2011 18:22:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-21.htmlIn the Dec 12th email on gold, affirmed the short position and target at $1535 (Sept low) and below (sold on Nov 28th at $1715), adding that pennant patterns (which had broken down earlier that day) resolve sharply. The market did indeed tumble from there, reaching a low at $1652 on Dec 15th, and before consolidating. In the bigger picture, still view trade from the Sept low at $1535 as a large correction (note the sloppy/messy trade), and continues to target new lows below $1535. This in turnWed, 21 Dec 2011 21:43:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-19.htmlIn the Dec 7th email on $/swiss, affirmed the Nov 3rd rebuy at .8825, as well as the long held view of gains above the .9315/30 area (has provided resistance since Oct), but warned that further upside may be short-lived (see longer term below). The market has indeed jumped to those new highs, reaching longer term resistance in the previously discussed .9460/20 area (reached .9545), and before pulling back. Though there is potential for a more important top forming in this area (for at least aMon, 19 Dec 2011 06:13:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-15.htmlIn the Dec 7th email on $/swiss, affirmed the Nov 3rd rebuy at .8825, as well as the long held view of gains above the .9315/30 area (has provided resistance since Oct), but warned that further upside may be short-lived (see longer term below). The market has indeed jumped to those new highs, reaching longer term resistance in the previously discussed .9460/20 area (reached .9545), and before pulling back. Though there is potential for a more important top forming in this area (for at least aThu, 15 Dec 2011 09:41:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-14.htmlIn the Dec 8th email on the $ index, affirmed the long held view of eventual gains above the Oct 4th high at 79.85, adding there was potential for a spike upward. Rebought there (then at 78.85), and the market has indeed rallied sharply above the 79.85 high since. In the bigger picture, eventual gains all the way up to 82.65/80 and the ceiling of the 6 year triangle (currently at 87.50/75) is still favored (see longer term below). However as been warning, there is risk that these recent newWed, 14 Dec 2011 19:33:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-12.htmlGold has resolved sharply lower from the large pennant/triangle that has been forming since Sept, and with eventual declines back to the long held Sept $1535 low and below, still favored. Despite pennants generally seen as continuation patterns (suggesting an up resolution), the potential for a downside resolution was substantially higher than normal in this instance (silver bearish, "risk" markets seen topping, etc.). Currently, the market is finding at least some support in the $1660/70 areaMon, 12 Dec 2011 17:43:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-08.v02.htmlOil is chopping since the Nov 17th high at $103.37 , and capped by the bearish trendline since May (currently at $102.50/75).  With the market overbought after the sharp gains since the Oct low at $74.95, at least another few weeks of correcting lower may be ahead.  Note too the sell signal on the daily macd (see bottom of daily chart below), today's break of support at the bullish trendline since that low (currently at $100.25, now resistance) and the longer term view of a moreThu, 08 Dec 2011 23:06:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-08.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-01.htmlCable is higher from the Sept 25th low at 1.5425, and within the broader, 1.5280/1.6160 range that has been in place since early Oct. Still favor eventual new lows (may be limited, see longer term below), but the timing is a question, and the market is seen at a "pivotal" area in regards to action over the next month. Currently see 2 potential scenarios. 1) cable goes to those new lows directly from here, but the declines below 1.5280 area are limited and short-lived, before forming aThu, 01 Dec 2011 17:29:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-12-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-11-23.htmlIn the $ index , no change as trade from the early Oct high is seen as correction (note the 3 wave, a-b-c decline), and with eventual new highs above 79.85 after. Only question is the timing of those new highs , as the market continues to form a rising wedge-like pattern over the last few weeks (see daily chart below), with its resolution the nearer term key. Note that an upside resolution would suggest a surge above 79.85 directly ahead, but such a move would likely to be a relativelyWed, 23 Nov 2011 15:18:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-11-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-11-17.htmlS&P 500 continues to trade in tighter and tighter ranges since the Oct 27th high at 1292, and below the important 1270/75 resistance area (both the 200 day moving avg and the previously broken neckline of the head and shoulders pattern from early in the year). May be forming a pennant/triangle over that time, generally seen as a continuation pattern suggesting an eventual upside resolution, but will at times resolve lower, and in both cases generally resolves sharply. In this case with theThu, 17 Nov 2011 17:25:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-11-10.htmlCable is consolidating from the Oct 31st high at 1.6160, and with the market overbought after the sharp gains from the Oct 6th low at 1.5280, suggests further downside ahead. Note too that the daily macd has recently given a new sell signal (see bottom of daily chart below), while there is scope for a few weeks of sharp declines all the way back to the 1.5280 low, and even below ahead (see longer term below). So for now, would stay short (sold on Nov 2nd at 1.6000) and stopping on a close aboveThu, 10 Nov 2011 15:56:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-11-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-11-07.htmlIn the S&P 500, still very bearish over the longer term (next 9-12 months or more) and with eventual declines all the way back to the March 2007 low at 667 and even below favored. Note that the market continues to form a huge head and shoulders pattern for over the last 12 year, testing the area of the right shoulder at the May 2nd high at 1371. Also the fall from the Oct 2007 high at 1576 occurred in 5 waves (wave 5, downside not "complete"), while the upmove from the march 2009 low atMon, 07 Nov 2011 20:10:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-11-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-11-04.htmlOil is firm near its recent high, and after the gains from the Oct 4th low at $74.95. But the upmove is seen as a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the May high at $104.60, see numbering on daily chart below), and with a resumption of the longer term declines to new lows below $74.95 after (within wave 5). Note too that market is overbought after the last month of sharp gains, and within lots of resistance in the $94.90/95.90 area (50% retracement from the May 2nd high at $114.83, bottom ofFri, 04 Nov 2011 20:11:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-26.htmlNo change in the long term view in cable, as the market continues to form a large pennant/triangle since the Jan 2009 low at 1.3505, and suggests at least another few months of trading in tighter and tighter ranges within the pattern ahead. Currently, the market is trading near the middle of the range and "ideally", with another downleg back to the Oct 6th low at 1.5280 and even the base of the triangle (currently at 1.5000/25) , before forming an important bottom (see in red on weekly chartWed, 26 Oct 2011 08:11:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-25.htmlLong term very bearish on the S&P 500, with eventual declines all the way back to the March 2009 low at 667, and even below is favored over the next 9-12 months (or more). Note that the 5 wave fall from the Oct 2007 high at 1576 suggests that the fall from that high is not "complete" (new lows), while the May 2nd high at 1371 completed the 3 wave, A-B-C correction from the 667 low. Additionally, the market is seen forming a huge, bearish head and shoulders pattern for over the last 11Tue, 25 Oct 2011 20:33:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-20.htmlCopper is up from its multi-month low at the 299.40, but the gains are seen as a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the Aug 1st high at 454.00), and with eventual new lows below 299.40 after (within wave 5, see daily chart below). Note that copper has gotten a lot of attention recently due to its relationship with economic activity in China (and recent concerns about a slowdown). Also, another downleg in copper fits the view of another potential selloff in "risk" markets, and upleg in the $Thu, 20 Oct 2011 08:01:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-19.htmlCopper is up from its multi-month low at the 299.40, but the gains are seen as a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the Aug 1st high at 454.00), and with eventual new lows below 299.40 after (within wave 5, see daily chart below). Note that copper has gotten a lot of attention recently due to its relationship with economic activity in China (and recent concerns about a slowdown). Also, another downleg in copper fits the view of another potential selloff in "risk" markets, and upleg in the $Wed, 19 Oct 2011 20:36:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-13.htmlIn the Oct 5th email on the A$, affirmed the short position (sold on Sept 6th at 1.0500), but said to use a very aggressive stop on a close above the bearish trendline from Sept 21st, as the risk in the position was rising sharply. The market closed above there that day (then at .9620, closed at .9655 for an 845 tick profit), and has continued to surge higher since. Currently, the market is reversing lower from an earlier test of key resistance at 1.0235/55 (both the a 50% retracement from theThu, 13 Oct 2011 14:49:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-11.htmlEur/$ is higher from the Oct 4th low at 1.3150 (and a level not seen since last Jan), and consolidating from yesterday's high at 1.3695 (also 38% from the Aug 29th high at 1.4545). But with no signs "pattern-wise" of a more important bottom, this recent upside is seen as a correction, and with eventual new lows below 1.3150 after. However, this period of correcting has lasted only a week so far, but is correcting a fall that lasted over a month, and in turn raises the risk for another week or 2Tue, 11 Oct 2011 13:44:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-03.html$ index has pushed another newhigh at 78.85, a level not seen since Feb and also longer term resistance (38% retracement from the Jun 2010 high at 88.70, see longer term below). Note too that the market appears to be withinthe final upleg in the rally from the Jul 27th low (wave 5, seenumbering on daily chart below), and suggests that risk is rising forat least a 200 tick pullback. However as been discussing, declines in "risk" markets (potentially sharp) into the mid Oct timeframe are stillMon, 03 Oct 2011 15:18:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-10-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-09-28.htmlHave been discussing the view of a fallin "risk" markets into the mid Oct time frame,with the outlook more specifically in the S&P 500 a key factor. Note that the trade from the Aug 9th low at 1101 (also 38% retracement from the Mar 2009 low at 667) is seen as a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the May 2nd high at 1371, see numbering ondaily chart below), and targets eventual new lows. With a breakbelow that longer term support likely to trigger further selling, little in the way ofWed, 28 Sep 2011 15:57:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-09-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-09-23.htmlIn the Sept 13th email on gold, said to short there (then at $1832) for the base of the multi-week range at $1705, and even below. The market has declined since then, today plunging below that low, and reaching $1632 so far. Though a more important top may be in place (see longer term below), the market is near term oversold, with potential for rising for as much as a $80-100 snapback at virtually any time. So for now, would use a much more aggressive stop on a close back above the broken baseFri, 23 Sep 2011 19:34:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-09-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-09-20.htmlIn the S&P 500, the bearish view remains in place as trade from the Aug 9th low at 1101 (also 38% from the Mar 2009 low at 667), is seen as a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the May 2nd high at 1371), and with eventual new lows (within wave 5, seen numbering on daily chart below). Also as been discussing in the intraday cycles point lower into the mid Oct time frame, and along with apotential head and shoulders pattern (bearish) forming since the Auglow, suggests that a resumption ofTue, 20 Sep 2011 08:26:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-09-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-09-07.html$/cad continues to consolidate from the Aug 9th high at 1.0010, and is seen as a correction, with eventual new highs after. Note too the sloppy/overlapping action over that time (is a characteristic of a correction), and 3 wave fall from that high (a-b-c, see numbering on daily chart below), with both adding to this bullish view. Also, the nearer term upmove from the Aug 31st low at .9725 occurred in 5 waves, and adds to the bullish view. So for now, want to be long and would buy hereWed, 07 Sep 2011 19:27:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-09-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-08-25.htmlIn the $ index, the bigger picture bearish view remains in place as the 3 wave upmove from the May 4th low at 72.70 (A-B-C, see numbering on daily chart below), continues to suggest that the last few months of wide ranging is a large correction, and with eventual new lows below 72.70. Short from the Aug 15th sell at 73.90, but there is remains scope for continued wide ranging, before the new lows are seen. Also, "risk" markets (equities, oil, a$, etc.) still appear to need another downlegThu, 25 Aug 2011 07:56:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-08-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-08-09.htmlCrude oil continues its sharp decline from the Jul 26th high at $100.62, and within the broader period of weakness from the May 2nd high at $114.83. With the market quite oversold in the near term, scope is rising for a potentially sharp, $8-9 bounce at virtually any time. Note too that the market is nearing longer term support in the $78.75/25 area (base of the bearish channel from May and a 38% retracement from the Jan 2009 low at $33.20), and is a "logical" area to form such a low. But withTue, 09 Aug 2011 06:37:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-08-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-07-29.htmlIn the Jul 22nd email on $/yen, affirmed the short position (sold on Jul 12th at 79.40), adding that there was potential for a further downside acceleration ahead. The market indeed weakened sharply since, and after the recent break below the base of the bearish channel since May. Warned that such a move lower would be seen as wave iii (from the Jul 8th high at 81.45) of a larger wave 3 (from the May 19th high at 82.20, see numbering on daily chart below). Note that this is often the mostFri, 29 Jul 2011 20:15:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-07-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-07-26.html$/swiss has pushed to yet another new low, and into support at .7990/00 (both the falling support lines from last Oct as well as Jun, see daily chart below). But the downside pattern from the Jul 1st high at .8525 is still not "complete", and along with the continued bearish view in the broader $ (at least another week or 2 of potentially sharp declines in the $ index), suggests further downside in $/swiss ahead. Took profits on the Jul 7th short at .8450 on Jul 18th above the week long bearishTue, 26 Jul 2011 18:51:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-07-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-07-19.html$ index continues its rangy trade since the May 4th low at 72.70, and appears to be forming a large pennant/triangle over that time. These are seen as continuation patterns, and suggests an eventual (and likely sharp) downside resolution of the base (currently at 75.35/45). Also as mentioned a number of times in the past, 1 leg of these patterns will often over/undershoot a trendline (as occurred on last week's spike high at 76.70). Finally, pennants also break down into 5 legs and suggestsTue, 19 Jul 2011 16:58:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-07-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-07-11.htmlIn the July 5th email on eur/chf, said to short there (then at 1.2225) as the July 4th high at 1.2350 was likely to hold at least temporarily, and with some potential for declines all the way back to the Jun 27th low at 1.1880 and even below. The market has indeed tumbled since then, earlier breaking below that 1.1800 low and quickly nearing next support at the base of the bearish channel since April (currently at 1.1620/35, see daily chart below). Though a more important bottom may be nearing,Mon, 11 Jul 2011 16:57:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-07-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-07-08.htmlNo change in the long held view in eur/$, as trade from the May 4th high at 1.4940 is seen as a correction, and with eventual new highs after. Still appear to be forming a large pennant/triangle over that time and as discussed on a number of occasions, good profits can often be made as these patterns form by fading the extremes (though there is little in the way of "net" progress). But these patterns break down into 5 legs and suggests that an upside resolution of the ceiling (currently atFri, 08 Jul 2011 17:46:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-07-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-06-28.htmlIn eur/$ no change in the view for over the last month, as the 3 wave fall from the May high at 1.4940 (A-B-C) suggests that the action over that time is a large correction, and with eventual new highs above 1.4940 after. Note that the market continues to trade in tighter and tighter ranges since, and appears to be forming a large pennant/triangle. These are seen as continuation patterns, adding to the view of eventual new highs. Nearer term however, pennants break down into 5 legs, leavingTue, 28 Jun 2011 16:41:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-06-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-06-22.htmlNo change in the long held view in the A$, as trade from the May 2nd high at 1.1010 is seen as a correction, and with eventual new highs after. Note that the market continues to trade in tighter and tighter ranges since that high, and is another market that appears to be forming a large pennant/triangle. These are seen as continuation patterns, adding to the view of an eventual upside resolution and gains back to the May high at 1.1010, and even above. However, these patterns also break downWed, 22 Jun 2011 17:49:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/dsolin@fxa.com (FXA)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxa-column/2011-06-22.html