$/mxn is firm near levels not seen since the mid May spike, and taking a run at important longer term resistance at the ceiling of the bearish channel since April 2009 (currently at 13.15/18, see daily chart below). Note that a break/close above there could trigger a further upside acceleration toward 13.42/45, 13.82/85 (50% retracement from the March 2009 high at 15.59) and even above (see longer term below). Such a move upward would also fit the broader view of bigger picture, asset market weakness (potentially significant) for at least the next few months. So for now, would buy here (currently at 13.23), and initially stopping on a close back below the ceiling (limited risk, would suggest a bearish false break). Though it would not change the view of an eventual upside resolution, it would raise the risk for at least some temporary weakness first. Nearby resistance is seen at the May high at 13.38, while further support back below the ceiling of the channel is seen at 12.93/96.

Longer term no change in the view that trade from the March 2009 high at 15.59 is seen as correction (wave 4 in the rally from the May 2001 low at 8.96), and with eventual new highs (within wave 5, see numbering on weekly chart below). Given that the market appears to be resolving higher from the large channel, looks like the large correction (wave 4) may be "complete", so would switch the longer term bias to the bullish side here (currently at 13.23). Note too that the weekly macd remains in buy mode (see bottom of weekly chart/2nd chart below), adding to the view of further big picture upside ahead.


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