In the June 30th email on $/yen, said that the 5 wave fall from the June 5th high at 98.85 (see numbering on daily chart below) argued that the week of upside was a correction, and with a resumption of the longer term declines after. Shorted there (then at 96.40) but warned of another day or 2 of topping and even further slight new highs first. The market did indeed a slight new high the next day at 96.95 but has since turned lower, accelerating on today’s break below the bullish trendline since May (currently at 95.35) and on way toward 93.90 (May 22nd low) and even below ahead. However, the inability to continue the downside over the next few days/week will start to argue that the period of ranging since late May is not yet complete. So for now, would use a more aggressive stop on a close above the bearish trendline since mid June (currently at 96.60/70). Support before the 93.90 low is seen at 94.25/35 (50% retracemcent from the Dec low at 87.15) with 92.60/70 after. Note too that eur/yen has broken below key support at the bullish trendline since Feb (currently at 133.00/15), with a close below a bigger picture bearish sign and confirming that a more important top is in place at the June high at 139.20 (see scrolling commentary).
Longer term, the bigger picture bearish view remains in place as the April 6th high at 101.40 is seen as completing the large, irregular correction from the Dec low at 87.15, and targets further declines back to 87.15 and even below ahead. Note too that the market continues to chop lower within the 2 year bearish channel, adding weight to the view of potential new lows below 87.15 ahead (see weekly chart/2nd chart below). Switched the longer term bias to the bearish side on April 30th, with a close above the ceiling of the channel (currently at 100.00/25) putting this longer term view on hold. Resistance before there is seen at the bearish trendline from last Aug (currently at 97.75/00).
