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$/mxn, potenial for up acceleration ahead....

Tue, Jun 9 2009, 22:23 GMT
by David Solin

FXA

$/mxn is chopping higher from the May 20th low at 12.8265, and after the fall from the March high at 15.5890.  From an Elliott Wave perspective, the market appears to be within wave iii of the larger wave 3 from the 12.8265 low (see numbering on daily chart below).  These are often the most “explosive” part within a move, and raises potential for a further upside acceleration toward 14.20/22 (50% retracement from the 15.5890 high) and even above ahead.  Note too that technicals did not confirm that May low (see bullish divergence and buy mode on the daily macd), while the market is today breaking above resistance at the bearish trendline from late March (currently at 12.49/51), with both adding weight to the view of further gains ahead.  For now, want to be long and would buy here (currently at 13.53).  Also, given the potential for a sharp upside acceleration directly ahead, may want to look into buying $/mxn calls given the potential for increase in volatility.  Initially stop on a close below the bullish trendline from late May (currently at 13.10), as it would suggest more basing back to the 12.8265 low and even temporarily below (would be looking to rebuy at lower levels if taken out).  Nearby resistance is seen at 13.90.

Longer term, the market has bounced from the May test of the bullish trendline from last Aug (then at 12.8265), and with potential for gains back toward the March high at 15.5890 as part of a longer term, complex topping.  So for now, would have a longer term bullish bias.  Note too that important longer term support lies just below the May 12.8265 low at 12.68/72 (both the base of the bullish channel and a 50% retracement from the 9.8575 low), and adds weight to the view that if further new lows do occur (not currently favored), they would likely be limited, and part of a larger bottoming. 

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Published on  Tue, Jun 9 2009, 22:28 GMT