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Oil, long from mid Feb remains in place....

Fri, Mar 27 2009, 06:24 GMT
by David Solin

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In the March 2nd email on crude oil, affirmed the long position (bought in mid Feb at $40.18) and the market has indeed continued higher, grinding steadily upward within the bullish channel that has contained the market since Feb (see daily chart below).
Currently, the market is trading just below resistance at the ceiling of the channel (currently at $55.50/00) as well as longer term resistance at the previously broken bullish trendline from Aug 2003 (see longer term below), and is nearing overbought after the last 6 weeks of steady gains. However, there are still no signs “pattern-wise” of even a short term top while seasonal charts point sharply higher into mid May (see seasonal chart/2nd chart below), and suggests that any pullback is likely to be short-lived. So for now, would stay long and use a close below the base of the bullish channel since Feb as a sign to stop (currently at $47.25/75). Support before there is seen at $51.75/00.

Longer term, no change as the market is likely within an extended period of wide ranging with at least another few months of the same ahead, and versus the start of a more major upleg. Note that on a % basis, the swings have been and will likely continue to be large, but relative to the size of the fall from the July 2008 high at $147.27, are expected to be somewhat limited. Switched the long held bearish bias to neutral in the Feb 9th email, and for now will maintain that longer term neutral stance as long as the view of bigger picture ranging is in place. However, will continue to attempt to catch some of the shorter term swings (see above). Note that the market is testing longer term resistance at the previously broken bullish trendline from Aug 2003 (see shorter term above) with the broken bullish trendline from 2001 (currently at $64.75/25) after.

Chart courtesy of Moore Research Center, Inc..

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Published on  Fri, Mar 27 2009, 06:28 GMT

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