Search
FXA Column
0
0
Eur/$, new lows but don't chase it....
Thu, Oct 2 2008, 14:32 GMT
by David Solin
Longer term in eur/$, the market has finally broken below the Sept 11th low at 1.3885 (though warned that there was risk for more consolidating first). However, more important support lies just below there at 1.3625/40 (50% retracement from the Nov 2005 low at 1.1645) then 1.3625/65 (both the base of the nearly 3 year bullish channel and the Dec 2004 high, see weekly chart below). Note too that the $ has not reached new highs versus other major currencies (at least so far, potential divergence) while the recent push lower may be part of a larger correction from the July high at 1.6035 (A-B-C) and not the start of a major, new downleg. Currently, just not seen as a good risk/reward in “chasing” the market lower from here (if not positioned), despite pushing to levels not seen in a year, as markets will often put in at least a temporary bottom around these clusters of support.
Nearer term, the market continues sharply lower from the Sept 22nd high at 1.4860. Though there are no signs of even a short term bottom, downside momentum remains strong and technicals are negative (see sell mode on daily macd at bottom of 2nd chart below), leaving open scope for further downside. However, the market is into longer term support (see above), so leery of selling here even for the shorter term. For now, both sides of the market are just seen as too risky and would stay patient for a better risk/reward entry ahead. Note, only temporary support (and 165 tick bounce) on last week’s buy at 1.4600, before stopping below 1.4480 a few days later (and assuming stops were not raised aggressively on the near term bounce as suggested).
Published on Fri, Oct 3 2008, 08:49 GMT
Archive
- Oil, important low close-but not quite there....
Published On Tue, Dec 2 2008, 05:44 GMT - Eur/$, more of the same...for now...
Published On Wed, Nov 26 2008, 16:54 GMT - $ index, short term downside but no important top.....
Published On Tue, Nov 25 2008, 17:30 GMT - A$, no important bottom...yet....
Published On Mon, Nov 24 2008, 05:54 GMT - Dow Jones Industrials, a final downleg?
Published On Tue, Nov 18 2008, 06:24 GMT
Foreign Exchange Analytics
| 281 Essex Plaza, Essex, Connecticut 06426
http://www.fxa.com | d.solin@fxa.com
Related reports
Daily Forex Outlook - Markets Recover lead by GE surge by Easy Forex
Wed, Dec 3 2008, 02:11 GMT
Short Term Analysis - EURUSD is forming a short term cycle bottom by ForexCycle.com
Wed, Dec 3 2008, 01:20 GMT
Daily Forex Strategy Briefing - Greenback Modestly Lower as Stocks Recover by CMS Forex
Tue, Dec 2 2008, 23:38 GMT
Daily Market Commentary - What is Behind the Dollar Rally? by GFT (Global Forex Trading)
Tue, Dec 2 2008, 22:17 GMT
Market Session Recaps - New York Session by FOREX.com
Tue, Dec 2 2008, 22:13 GMT
Related content
COLUMN-Dollar demise much exaggerated: John Kemp
Thomson Financial News | Tue, Dec 2 2008, 14:58 GMT
Euro Rebounds Vs Dollar As Oil Prices Eclipse $50/Bbl
Dow Jones | Tue, Dec 2 2008, 13:56 GMT
FACTBOX-Inflationary pressures in the euro zone
Thomson Financial News | Tue, Dec 2 2008, 13:38 GMT
UPDATE: Euro-Zone Producer Prices Post Record Drop In Oct
Dow Jones | Tue, Dec 2 2008, 11:17 GMT
UPDATE 1-Euro zone Oct PPI falls, backs case to slash rates
Thomson Financial News | Tue, Dec 2 2008, 11:01 GMT
Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
FXstreet.com will give you a 3 months membership as soon as minimum rebates have been generated (€150 for private trader/ €300 for corporate trader)
[Read Premium full description]
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2008 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.