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Cable, not the time to be greedy... take profits...

Mon, Sep 22 2008, 14:10 GMT
by David Solin

FXA

The longer term view in cable remains unchanged as trade from the Sept 11th low at 1.7450 is seen as a large correction (wave 4 in the fall from the March high at 2.0395) and with eventual new lows after (within wave 5, see numbering on daily chart below). For now with scope for further wide consolidating ahead, would trade the shorter term view (see below), but with the expectation of a bigger picture chance to reshort for new lows ahead.

Nearer term, spiked down to reach the buy target from the Sept 18th email at the nearly 2 week bullish trendline last week (then at 1.7925), before reversing sharply higher and above recent highs (see daily chart/2nd chart below). However, trade from the 1.7450 low is seen as a correction with eventual new lows after (see longer term), and the market has rallied into resistance at 1.8475/85 (both a 38% retracement from the July high at 2.0150, also the week long rising resistance line). Note too that even though there are no signs that this multi-week period of correcting is complete, its may be an extended period of wide consolidating/ranging (versus sharply higher prices from here). With the near term potential seen as limited, a good chance for at least a temporary pullback from here, and large profits over just the last few days, it’s currently not seen as a good risk/reward in staying long and not seen as the time to be “greedy”. So for now, would take profits here (currently at 1.8470, for a 545 tick profit over just the last few days). Nearby support is seen at 1.8260 and the bullish trendline from the lows (currently at 1.8010/20), while important resistance above 1.8475/85 is seen at 1.8800.

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Published on  Mon, Sep 22 2008, 16:15 GMT