• Home ::
• Technical ::
• Market View

• Send
• Print
• Add To
• Rss

FXA Column

77c654fb-21a4-4df6-a36d-2ea457e5d6bc

8

0

$/swiss, stay long, further upside ahead....

Wed, Nov 4 2009, 06:13 GMT
by David Solin

FXA

No change in the longer term view in $/swiss as the market is seen completing (or nearly) the 5 wave fall from the March high at 1.1965, and potentially the whole fall from the Nov 2008 high at 1.2295 (wave C, see numbering on weekly chart below). Also, the weekly macd is near to giving a new buy signal, adding to this view (see bottom of weekly chart below). This in turn suggests that a potentially major low is in place, with eventual gains toward the previously broken trendline from June (currently at 1.0485/00), the bearish trendline since March (currently at 1.0735/50) and above. Note however that there is some risk for another few weeks of wide bottoming (potential for marginal new lows), before moving sharply higher. So for now, would switch the longer term bias to the bullish side from neutral (currently at 1.0310).

Nearer term in the Oct 27th email, said there was scope for further gains but to wait for lower levels to 1.0145/60 to get long. Reached that buy target a few days later, before resuming the uptrend, and today breaking above the 1.0275/90 resistance area (both the recent highs and the bearish trendline since Aug, see daily chart/2nd chart below). This in turn suggests further gains ahead (some chance for a further upside acceleration) toward 1.0400/10 (38% retracement from the June high at 1.1020), the bearish trendline since July (currently at 1.0445/60) and possibly above. Note that the path higher is somewhat in question. Could see the market work its way higher as part of a longer term period of wide bottoming (deep pullbacks), or could see a sharp, upside acceleration from here (lots of shorts triggered). At this point it does not matter from a position standpoint as both scenarios call for further upside (and already on the long side). For now, would stop on a close below the bullish trendline from late Oct (currently at 1.0185/00).

• Download Full FXA Column

Published on  Wed, Nov 4 2009, 06:13 GMT