http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/05/22/02/Wed, 22 May 2013 15:40:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/05/22/02/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/05/21/EUR/USD The pair settled marginally lower as market participants usedthe looming testimony by Bernanke, as well as the release of the minutes from the previous Fed’s policy meeting, as an opportunity to scale down exposure to riskier assets which in turn supported the USD. It was another quiet session in terms of macroeconomic news flow, but the Spanish Treasury successfully sold its latest round of T-Bills, which comes ahead of this Thursday’s bond auctions by the Treasury. Elsewhere, pressTue, 21 May 2013 12:54:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/05/21/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/05/20/Mon, 20 May 2013 13:23:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/05/20/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/30/EUR/USD EUR/USD traded lower this morning as market participants pre-positioned ahead of the eagerly awaited ECB meeting on Thursday where the governing council is now widely expected to cut the benchmark borrowing rate by 25bps. While this may now be more or less priced in, there is a risk that an indication of more measures to support credit growth in the joint currency bloc may lead to another round of selling pressure. GBP/USD The price action by EUR/USD was mirrored by GBP/USD, which isTue, 30 Apr 2013 14:32:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/30/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/29/Mon, 29 Apr 2013 16:01:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/29/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/26/Fri, 26 Apr 2013 14:20:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/26/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/25/Thu, 25 Apr 2013 13:42:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/25/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/24/EUR/USD EUR/USD tested the 50% retracement of this month's recovery at 1.2974, where a break below would indicate that there is scope for the pair to extend to move lower towards 1.2920, which is the 62% retracement. In case the bear trend accelerates, market participants will look to target 1.2746 and 1.2662. Interestingly to note is that even though a number of investment banks have revised their ECB rate cut expectations and expect the central bank to cut rates in May, an economist out ofWed, 24 Apr 2013 13:54:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/24/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/23/Tue, 23 Apr 2013 12:31:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/23/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/22/Mon, 22 Apr 2013 12:51:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/22/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/16/02/Tue, 16 Apr 2013 15:39:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/16/02/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/16/Tue, 16 Apr 2013 06:10:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/16/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/15/Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:10:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/15/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/11/Thu, 11 Apr 2013 14:31:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/11/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/10/Wed, 10 Apr 2013 16:44:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/10/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/09/Tue, 09 Apr 2013 14:34:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/09/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/08/EUR/USD Even though EUR/USD has edged above the psychologically important 1.3000 level, the underlying momentum remains bearish. In terms of technical levels, nearest resistance level is seen at 1.3048, the March 25th high and then at 1.3115, the 38% retracement of the February to April sell-off. PO/GE 10s spread reversed initial widening bias as market participants welcomed the European Commission's statement, which reiterated its support for the government. The European Commission said itMon, 08 Apr 2013 15:20:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/08/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/04/EUR/USD The pair squeezed higher following the conclusion of the press conference from Draghi and completely pared the initial sell-off to settle in minor positive territory. Apart from touted short- squeeze, as well as scaling back of option volatility plays following the conclusion of the risk event, the pair is being supported by comments from Draghi, who noted that commitment to Euro is largely underestimated. Still, the Euribor curve flattened after ECB's Draghi said that monetary policyThu, 04 Apr 2013 15:21:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/04/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/03/EUR/USD Even though the pair settled higher on Wednesday, the pair remains in a bear trend and a break below the initial support at 1.2751 exposes 1.2661, the November 2012 extreme. Below, support level is seen at 1.2562. In terms of macroeconomic commentary, it was reported that the IMF reached an agreement with Cyprus for EUR 1bln. This is as part of the EUR 10bln rescue package the country agreed with Eurozone finance ministers late March. Although it was widely expected that the IMF wouldWed, 03 Apr 2013 14:47:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/03/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/02/EUR/USD The pair remains in a bearish pattern and a key support level is seen at 1.2751, last week's low. A break below would expose 1.2661, which is the November 2012 low. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.2900/35 and then 1.3048. In terms of macroeconomic commentary, it was reported citing Cyprus central bank official that some capital controls are to be eased. Cyprus eased daily transaction to EUR 25000 per account from EUR 5000, also raised limit on check payments to EURTue, 02 Apr 2013 13:45:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/04/02/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/28/EUR/USD The underlying trend for the pair remains bearish and there is little to indicate that the pair will reverse course to the upside. Technical support levels are seen at 1.2736 and then at 1.2662 which is the November 2012 low, which also links with the 62% retracement of the July 2012 to February 2013 bull trade at 1.2680. The risk-averse sentiment was supported by another round of less than impressive macroeconomic data, as well as the lack of progress on the formation of government inThu, 28 Mar 2013 16:00:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/28/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/27/EUR/USD The pair trended lower for much of the session and a firm break below the November 21, 2012 low of 1.2736 will open the door towards the next key support level at 1.2661, which is the November 2012 low. In terms of Eurozone related commentary, Cyprus Central Bank said that draft capital controls are ready and banks are set to open tomorrow. Furthermore, capital controls to be imposed in Cyprus will limit foreign transactions & capital outflows but not movements of money within theWed, 27 Mar 2013 16:35:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/27/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/26/EUR/USD Even though the pair settled in minor positive territory, there was plenty of volatility throughout the session and the underlying trend remains. Technical support levels are seen at 1.2736 and then at 1.2662 which is the November 2012 low, which also links with the 62% retracement of the July 2012 to February 2013 bull trade at 1.2680. In terms of EU related commentary, there was an unconfirmed report of a dovish think tank report which suggested that the ECB may cut interest ratesTue, 26 Mar 2013 15:20:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/26/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/25/EUR/USD Investors breathed a sigh of relief this morning and reacted positively after Eurozone finance ministers approved the EU-IMF plan to resolve the Cypriot banking situation with EUR 10bln bailout deal. ECB's ELA is expected to remain available to Cyprus banks except for Laiki. EU's Rehn said that senior bondholders in Laiki will be wiped out because the bank will be closed down. The fact that the bailout excludes the need for Cypriot lawmakers to vote removes some uncertainties and theMon, 25 Mar 2013 16:04:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/25/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/21/EUR/USD The pair traded lower for much of the session on Thursday after the release of lower than expected PMIs from Europe, as well as the ongoing uncertainty over the bailout talks between Cyprus, the Troika and Moscow, depressed investor demand for the joint block currency. Also, investor sentiment towards the EUR was undermined by reports that Russia may need to review the share of EUR it holds in its central bank reserves over the Eurozone's handling of a bailout in Cyprus according to PMThu, 21 Mar 2013 15:37:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/21/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/20/EUR/USD The ongoing issues surrounding the bailout of Cyprus continued to undermine investor confidence over the future stability of the joint block currency. Given the determination by lawmakers in the Eurozone to impose a levy on depositors and the expected opposition by politicians in Cyprus to avoid this from happening indicates that some sort of sacrifice will be needed to reach a viable solution. The price pattern remains in a bearish mode and the next major support level is seen atWed, 20 Mar 2013 16:26:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/20/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/18/EUR/USD The pair settled the session sharply lower as market participants reacted to what is arguably a very controversial bailout of Cyprus, as it involves a levy on depositors. Initially it was thought that the bailout which was agreed with Eurozone leaders over the weekend would see depositors taxed up to 10% (6.7% on amounts below EUR 100,000 and 9.9% on figures above that) to raise EUR 5.8bln and be eligible for an international bailout. However, it was soon established that the finalMon, 18 Mar 2013 15:11:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/18/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/12/EUR/USD The pair settled the session little changed as market participants remained on the sidelines ahead of the eagerly awaited auctions by the Italian Treasury on Wednesday. Shorter-dated vols remained better bid as traders continued to fret over the political gridlock in Italy, where the President Napolitano is expected to try and form a government when lawmakers convene on March 15th. Even though the pair traded above the psychologically important 1.3000 level, the bearish pattern remainsTue, 12 Mar 2013 15:29:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/12/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/11/EUR/USD The bearish pattern remains firmly intact for EUR/USD and there is a risk of further downside should the pair break the December low seen at 1.2876, which once broken opens the door towards the November low at 1.2661. IT/GE 10s spread widened on Monday as market participants not only reacted to the latest sovereign rating downgrade but also pre-positioned ahead of this week's supply from the Italian Treasury. As such, Italian bonds underperformed its EU peers, with 2/10s flatter byMon, 11 Mar 2013 15:39:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/11/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/07/EUR/USD The pair settled the session higher, in part on the back of speculation that the BoE will have its mandate altered when Carney takes over in July, and also after the decision by the governing council to keep rates unchanged prompted an unwind of downside bets. The pair accelerated the move higher during Draghi’s press conference where the head of the central bank said that the ECB sees "upside inflation risks from taxes and oil prices". Other notable comments have been that Draghi seesThu, 07 Mar 2013 16:42:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/07/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/06/EUR/USD The pair trended lower for much of the session as market participants priced in what now looks like a high probability that Draghi will deliver a dovish statement post the rate decision which is due to take place on Thursday. Current OIS implied rates indicate that there is approximately 30% chance of a rate cut. Still, the overall majority of analysts expect the central bank to refrain from cutting rates just yet and at best indicate that this may happen in the coming months shouldWed, 06 Mar 2013 15:42:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/06/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/05/EUR/USD The pair traded steady on Tuesday, as market participants remained on the sidelines ahead of the eagerly awaited ECB governing council meeting later on in the week. S&P's Kraemer said that there is a risk of complacency in Eurozone and that central banks cannot save the day, just buy time. He added that OMT activation will be Europe's moment of truth. Separately, Kraemer noted that Italian election outcome doesn't have rating impact (currently rated BBB+, outlook negative), baseTue, 05 Mar 2013 16:47:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/05/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/04/EUR/USD The pair remains in a bearish pattern and the next major support level is seen at 1.2876 which is the December low, which also links with the mid-point of the July 2012 to February 2013 advance at 1.2877 and then 1.2661. OIS/Euribor spreads widened this morning and money market curve is seen marginally flatter on the back of growing expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the ECB later on this week (implied OIS rates indicate that there is around 30% probability that the ECBMon, 04 Mar 2013 14:49:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/03/04/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/28/EUR/USD EUR/USD remains in a bearish pattern, however in order for the pair to extend on the downside, the pair first needs to break through the key 1.2997 support level. Once broken, the bearish momentum may trigger a deeper sell-off to 1.2877, which is the mid-point of the July 2012 to February 2013 advance, which is also the December 2012 low. Of note, Moody's said that the Euro-area sovereign debt markets are vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence. While the introduction ofThu, 28 Feb 2013 14:38:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/28/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/27/EUR/USD The pair settled higher on Wednesday, in part benefiting from the latest BTP auctions by the Italian Treasury which, in spite of the unstable political situation were well covered. Nevertheless, there is a risk that further bond yield spread widening in Europe, on the back of concerns regarding the political instability in Italy, may see the pair break through the key 1.3000 level to the downside. Key support level is seen at 1.2998, which once broken opens the door towards 1.2877Wed, 27 Feb 2013 15:54:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/27/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/21/EUR/USD The pair settled the session lower as market participants digested the release of less than impressive macro economic data (Eurozone Services and Manufacturing PMIs). In addition to that, risk-averse flows were supported by the FOMC minutes which showed that several on FOMC said the Fed should be prepared to vary pace of QE. As a guide, Italian curve steepened today and the benchmark 10y bond yield spread (IT/GE 10s) widened by 10bps this morning as market participants continued toThu, 21 Feb 2013 16:24:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/21/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/20/EUR/USD The pair settled the session lower and failed to benefit from a higher EUR/GBP cross amid broad based GBP weakness after market participants reacted to the release of the minutes from the most recent MPC policy meeting. There was little in terms of EU related commentary, but WSJ reported citing ECB’s Noyer that there is no particular interest in cutting rates by a few cents if it only impacts core countries. He also said that excess liquidity is very significant and will remain so evenWed, 20 Feb 2013 15:25:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/20/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/19/EUR/USD Better than expected macro economic data from Germany failed to provide a solid boost for the bulls on Tuesday and the price action remained volatile throughout the session. Nevertheless, the pair managed to settle in minor positive territory, after decent demand for Spanish T-Bills buoyed investor sentiment ahead of this Thursday’s bond auctions by the Treasury. Positive sentiment was largely offset by the looming elections in Italy, where there is a risk of a hung parliament. InTue, 19 Feb 2013 14:51:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/19/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/18/EUR/USD The pair settled the session lower as market participants pre-positioned ahead of this week’s supply from France and Spain, as well as the eagerly awaited elections in Italy. The risk-averse sentiment was also supported by reports that Spanish public debt surpassed EUR 882bln in 2012. El Pais reported citing sources that debt increased by EUR 146bln last year, which is the biggest increase on record. In other related news, Bank of Spain reported that banks' bad loans for the month ofMon, 18 Feb 2013 14:56:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/18/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/13/EUR/USD In spite of reports by Bild that the ECB are worried that the EUR strength will hurt recovery in crisis states, the pair settled the session higher, supported by a weaker GBP after BoE’s King hinted that near-term upside inflationary risks may be temporary ignored. Until recently the ECB rarely commented on exchange rates and therefore this comment from the ECB, which hints that Euro is too strong, has caused weakness in the EUR currency. Elsewhere, it was reported citing G7 official,Wed, 13 Feb 2013 16:11:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/contact@talking-forex.com (Talking-Forex.com)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fx-outlook/2013/02/13/