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Futures Daily Report

Futures Daily Report

Mon, Feb 8 2010, 14:38 GMT
by Per-Erik Karlsson

Avantage Financial GMBH  |  View company's profile

S&P 500 Futures: Very interesting bar on Daily chart Friday with record volume this year and closing way off the lows as prices reversed strongly towards the end of the session. This certainly signals that is was a lot of buying in that bar. We now look for this bullish action to be confirmed today with an up bar. Key support is now Friday’s low (1040.75) and the 23,60% Fibonacci retracement of the March 09 to January 2010 coming in at 1031. Key resistance remains 1103.

Dow Jones Futures: Same bullish price action as S&P futures and looking for a confirmation through an up bar today to open for a push higher.

DAX Futures: Traded higher towards the close Friday, but not as strong reversal as S&P and Dow futures. Key support remains 5330. We see –4 Sigma band down at 5253 and we note that this –3 Sigma band has provided support over previous weeks. Key resistance is 5621 now, last reaction high.

Crude Oil Futures: From yesterday “ In the bigger picture, crude is trading inside a sideways channel with support at 67.87 and resistance at 84.33. Over supply in the Crude market mixed with tension and increased risk appetite have been some of the major drivers last 6 months, but none of these have been significantly strong to get any decent trend going in either direction. Rally to 78 failed again and it trades back to the middle of the 6 month range. Looking for bounce higher along with risk on in the other markets today.

Nat Gas Futures: Seen a 4.50 to 6.10 range for most the last 2 months, looks heavy towards 6.10. Nat Gas is by far the most volatile of the markets we monitor. Nat Gas seems to be driven more by supply and demand in the local market than risk appetite. Tested -3 Sigma bands on Monday at 5.06 and bounced higher since. Very seldom we see moves going out of the 3 Sigma band level, so a move back higher near term is most likely.

Corn Futures: Not able to do anything to the upside since that bearish USDA report out a month ago, sell rallies looks the best for now. Key support is 318, where it could be interesting to go long if the right signals confirm.

Soybeans Futures: Good supply pressing prices down last few weeks. Looks like it has topped out for now and key support down at 888, which could be an interesting level to get long at. We note the volume has increased on the sell off last weeks, which is signaling that selling oversampling buyers in a dominant way. Need to see a clear reversal pattern to get long.

Gold Futures: Risk off hit gold hard last few sessions and it broke blow 1075 and approaching -3 Sigma level at 1051 that Signals the move should have a decent chance to bounce back into the range near term. However the break of 1075 now confirms an end to the recent uptrend as this makes now a lower high and a lower low on daily chart.

10 Year Treasury Futures : Risk off saw prices rise back above the 118.15 resistance and it opens for a run towards 119 level. The +3 Sigma should provide resistance near term.

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Published on  Mon, Feb 8 2010, 15:43 GMT

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