• USD: Higher, Greek fiscal worries, Fed discount rate hike rumors, India hikes rates 25 bps
    • JPY: Mixed, FSA says falling land prices confirm Japan’s economy is still in deflation
    • EUR: Lower, Greek uncertainty, EU inflation flat
    • GBP: Lower, BOE’s Sentance sees risk of UK double dip recession
    • CAD and AUD: AUD & CAD lower, Canadian core CPI rises above BOC target, retail sales rise

      Overview

      The USD traded higher Friday with the EUR pressured by uncertainty about whether the EU will agree to aid Greece. Monitoring the news out of Europe in regard to potential for Greece aid rivals the back and forth reports of whether or not the US Congress has the votes to pass health reform. One report suggests that German officials want Greece to seek help from the IMF. Another report suggests that EU officials and the member states have agreed to help Greece if needed. An official with the German central bank says that Greece should declare insolvency if it can’t finance its debt. USD was also supported by rumors circulating that the Fed may raise the discount rate before next April's policy meeting. GBP traded lower pressured by a statement from the BOE’s Sentance that there is a risk of a double dip recession in the UK. Commodity currencies were mixed with the AUD pressured by increased fears of a trade war between US and China. CAD traded higher supported by report that Canadian February Core CPI rose above the BOC's target and January retail sales were strong. The above target Canadian CPI increases the risk of an earlier than expected BOC rate hike. AUD drifted lower pressured by increasing fear of a US China trade war as US officials increased pressure on China to revalue the Yuan. There is a growing risk that the US Congress will name China as a currency manipulator. If the U.S. Congress named China as a currency manipulator China may take some form of retaliation measures. China sent an envoy to Washington Friday to try and ease Chinese trade friction with the US. USD traded to the day’s highs in reaction to report that India hiked rates 25 bps. The rate hike sparked selling of equities and a spike in risk aversion. There were no major US economic reports in today's trade.

      Today’s US data:

      No major US economic data was released today.

      Upcoming US data:

      Next week's US economic calendar includes the March 23rd release of February existing home sales expected at 500mln compared to 505mln last month. On March 24th February durable goods will be released expected flat compared to a 3% rise last month. February new home sales will also be released on March 24th expected at 320k compared to 309k last month. On March 25th initial jobless claims for the week ending 3/20 will be released expected at 453k compared to 457k last week. On March 26th final Q4 GDP was  released expected at 5.7% compared to 5.9% along with final March Michigan consumer sentiment expected unchanged at 72.5.