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Forex Daily Analysis

28/11/'07 − Core Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales May Define Greenback Direction

Wed, Nov 28 2007, 15:54 GMT
by Lee More

ForexYard  |  View company's profile

Economic News
 
USD

The greenback strengthened all across the board yesterday on the back of news that a major Abu Dhabi investment company bought a significant portion of Citigroup. Citigroup, which is a major financial institution in the U.S, was hit very hard by the recent subprime crisis and credit crunch. So this investment by the Abu Dhabi group sent out a strong signal to the market that the financial sector may be at the beginning of a recovery process and therefore this created positive sentiment for the greenback. The major U.S fianacial institutions have been exercising damage control ever since the subprime crisis began and so the fact that investors are showing renewed faith for these institutions is a very positive sign for the U.S financial sector. This news was the main driver of the greenback yesterday and although there was other negative data released it had little impact on the market. The U.S Consumer Confidence released below the expected figure of 91.5 at 87.3, but it nevertheless was unable to offset the positive momentum surrounding the greenback following the Citigroup news.

Looking ahead, today there is a string of significant data releases that investors should watch out for, kicking off with the Durable Goods figures. Both the headline and the core figures are forecasted to release stronger than the previous month and this will be a positive sign for the U.S manufacturing sector. This will be followed by the Existing Home Sales figure which will give the market another indication of whether the rate cut by the Fed is providing the struggling housing sector with some relief. Investors will also focus today on the Fed's Beige Book report for hints with regards to future monetary. If today's news suprises on the upside then the greenback may be able to hold off another downward slide, however it will take a lot to remove the grey cloud surrounding the greenback, so the overall trend is still bearish. Also if the Beige Book highlights a U.S economic slowdown then the greenback will face another steep decline. 

EUR

After reaching a succession of record highs against the greenback, the EUR lost a small portion of its gains yesterday. A correction may be favorable to the European economy, as the ECB has made it clear that it views the EUR's sharp gains as undesirable. However in the meantime the bullish EUR has not created any noticeable negative impacts on the EU economy and many analysts believe that as soon as the EUR begins to dampen exports that the ECB will intervene in the currency markets. Also the German economy is one of the key players in the Eurozone and it is heavily reliant on exports but despite the strong EUR, German economic data is still positive. This fact was further reiterated yesterday by the release of the German Ifo Business Expectations and Climate Indexes, which both surprised on the upside. So in the meantime the ECB is sitting tight and observing whether the U.S economy will be able to avoid a recession. Therefore we believe that the ECB will likely keep interest rates unchanged in the near future, even though inflation risks are still on the upside as they would like to avoid strengthening the currency even further.

The only news to be released from the Eurozone today will be the German Consumer Confidence, which will give us another indication of how the German economy is fairing despite the strong EUR and we are also expecting the release of the M3 Money Supply. These figures should not have any impact on the market and the EUR movement today is likely to be dollar centric. Although the EUR slipped yesterday, investors are still favoring the European currency, so it will head back up after the correction loses steam. 

JPY

The JPY fell noticeably against the greenback yesterday on the back of the Citigroup news. However since then the JPY has managed to rebound on speculation that later on today the Beige Book will highlight a U.S economic slowdown. The JPY has been on a very strong bullish path pretty much ever since the credit crisis spread globally, as investors avoided the so-called carry trade strategy and became more-and-more risk averse. However the bullish JPY trend may reverse as soon as the risk appetite in the market returns as the BoJ is unlikely to raise the interest rate in the near future as a result of deflation concerns. Also the correlation between the DJIA and the JPY is still very visible as carry trades resumed on the back of yesterday's sharp rally but there is still a strong possibility of renewed losses. The JPY is unlikely to be affected by this week's Japanese economic data but rather its direction will more likely depend on the state of the risk sentiment in the market. 

 
Technical News
 
EUR/USD

The pair still floats within the range of 1.4800.4900 while the current move is up. The momentum is still bullish as clearly displayed by the Daily chart. The hourlies are showing RSI at the 50 level which indicates that we might see another upwards move quite shortly. 

GBP/USD

The cable is trading in a very unstable and choppy manner in the past few days. The daily studies show a slight bullish momentum and the hourlies show mixed signals with a moderate bearish tendency. It would be preferable to stay out of the cable trading until the smoke clears.

USD/JPY

The pair is in the midst of a very accurate downwards channel, and is now testing the top barrier. The oscillators show that a positive breach is quite unlikely, and the daily chart is showing bearish momentum. Going short still might be a preferable strategy. 
 
USD/CHF

On the 15 Min chart we see an ascending triangle which indicates on an upcoming positive breakout which will strengthen the greenback. On the 4 Hour chart the Slow Stochastic is on its way to the overbought territory and an upcoming reversal is expected. Going short from 1.1120 seems preferable today. 


The Wild Card
 
Crude Oil

On the daily chart we can see the Slow Stochastic having a negative slope and still having place headed to oversold territory, however the 4 Hour chart indicates on an upcoming reversal when Slow stochastic was crossed at 6 which is clearly oversold as RSI and momentum having positive slope which support the upcoming bullish trend. Today, Forex forex traders may seek for enticing entry point for long position which seems to be preferable. 
 

Published on  Thu, Nov 29 2007, 13:43 GMT