Daily Technical Outlook

Daily Technical Outlook

Wed, Jun 18 2008, 06:28 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Still a wild trade in Sterling – but with a negative backdrop as long as the combined weekly/July/Q3 resistance at 1.9655/65 to 1.9690 holds. Today’s follow-up to the Mon/Tues back and forth action is expected to be neutral. The main breakdown level for the week is still 1.9355. Elsewhere, daily trend in $/CAD leans bearish under 1.0217/32 today, likely forcing a correction to the larger weekly uptrend/July buy zone at 1.0091/70 to 1.0042. Aussie is still trying to rebound off its monthly uptrend at .9339. Day trend leans bullish above .9398 today; weekly target is still .9534. Euro is seen from 1.5445/25 to 1.5575/85..


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish. Other than the daily uptrend stalling to a near standstill, there has not been a lot of change so far this week. Trend is bullish and the intermediate setup still points higher. Supports are 106.64 weekly level, 105.60/39 weekly uptrend and developing July base at 105.27/24. There is no resistance for the week until 110.32, with expiring June level at 112.14. Strategy remains focused on buying weakness, starting at 106.64 and extending to 105.60/24.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is still officially bullish, but effectively neutral in terms of setup. Resistance today is 108.16, 108.55 and 108.83. Supports are 107.75, 107.23 and the combined weekly buy level/day extreme at 106.64/56. The uptrend ends with settle under 108.01. Expecting a 108.55 to 107.23 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 33% long at 106.64; 75% long at 105.60; 100% long at 105.27/24 – stop on close under 105.00. The target is 112.14 June level. Day Trade: buy 107.23 and 106.64/56; exit day longs at 108.55 and 108.83.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/Swiss continues to wander in a holding pattern, with no directional inclination at the moment. What little bias there was in terms of bullish daily trend, was lost yesterday with the downturn. The setup for the week remains balanced. Support are 1.0365, June zone at 1.0250/25 and 1.0185. Resistance is combined weekly/June area at 1.0540/45 to 1.0580, then skips to the 1.0715 Q3 sell level. Nothing to do at current levels. Strategy is to wait to sell 1.0715/85.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral with Tuesday’s backslide. That signals a correction lower toward weekly supports. The day setup is neutral once again, however. Supports are combined daily/weekly zone at 1.0370/65 and 1.0250/30. Resistance is 1.0430/40, 1.0510 and the weekly/day area at 1.0540/45. Expecting a 1.0510 to 1.0370/65 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Wait to move 33% short at 1.0715; 67% short at 1.0785 – stop on close above 1.0800 Day Trade: sell 1.0510 and 1.0540/45; cover day shorts at 1.0370/65; buy 1.0250/30.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Sterling continues to trade all over the map – but importantly, is staying under the key combination of weekly/July/Q3 traffic from 1.9655/65 to 1.9690. As long as it does so, the long-term setups are open-ended lower and the weekly setup is neutral to bearish. Lone nearby support is 1.9355 for the week, before drop to 1.9120. Resistance above 1.9690 jumps to 1.9835/70. Hold existing shorts against 1.9700 to cover at 1.9120.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral here with no lean either way today. But the wide ranges so far this week – up Monday; down Tuesday – leave an equally widespread setup. Day resistance is 1.9620 and 1.9715. Supports are 1.9390, weekly breakdown level at 1.9355 and 1.9255. Expecting a 1.9620 to 1.9390 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 100% short at 1.9665. Stop on close above 1.9700. Cover ½ at 1.9120. Day Trade: sell against 1.9620 and 19655/65; cover day shorts at 1.9390 and 1.9355.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Both weekly trend and setup remains neutral here, though with bullish-leaning daily trend edging Euro higher toward weekly resistance. The only nearby weekly hurdle is 1.5585, with gap thru there to 1.5865 and weekly/June zone at 1.5910/60. Supports for the week are still well back at 1.5320 and 1.5240, then the developing Q3 trend at 1.5115/00. Daily momentum can turn bullish above 1.5445 today. No hurry to position this market. Will wait to buy 1.5115/00 for now.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with settle above 1.5445/25 today, prompting what should be a run at the main weekly hurdle of 1.5585. The first day resistance of 1.5575 happens to intersect at that same area. Above there is jump to 1.5755. Supports are 1.5445/25 trend, 1.5395 and 1.5340. Expecting a 1.5445/25 to 1.5575/85 range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, will wait to move 50% long at 1.5115/00 – stop on close under 1.5100. Day Trade: buy weakness against the 1.5445/25 trend zone; sell daily/weekly zone at 1.5575/85.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend is still bullish, with solid weekly/July supports at 1.0091/70 to 1.0042. That said, the bearish lean in daily trend today (under 1.0232) suggests a short-term correction lower to base supports. The initial Q3 level at 1.0169 was hit Tuesday. The 1.0091/70 and 1.0042 levels are places to set longs against. Resistance for the week – other than daily trend – remain high at 1.0332 and 1.0362. Strategy is to buy 1.0091/70 and 1.0042. Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend leans bearish today with settle under 1.0232, and the day setup does point modestly lower. Resistance is 1.0195 and 1.0217/32 trend zone, before skipping to 1.0293. Day support is 1.0133, then the first weekly buy area at 1.0091/70. Expecting a 1.0217 to 1.0133 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after cover the 1.0323/32 short at the 1.0169 Q3 level on Tuesday. On further weakness, move to 50% long at 1.0091/70; 100% long at 1.0042 – stop on close under 1.0020. Day Trade: sell 1.0217/32; buy 1.0091/70.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Aussie continues to try to mount a rally off the bullish monthly trend level of .9339. The overall setup this week is neutral as long as that holds, with the bullish-lean in daily trend above .9398 today pointing higher in the short-term. The primary weekly resistance target for the week is .9534, with jump to .9651 above there. Other than .9339, support drops away to .9175 for the week and .9107 Q3 trend level. Strategy is to hold existing longs against .9339 for .9534 target.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with settle above .9398 today. The setup is neutral to modestly bullish. Supports are .9413/09 to .9390, then the key monthly breakdown zone at .9339. Day resistance is .9481, with the weekly target at .9534 above there. Projecting a .9413/09 to .9481 day range.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9370 average. Stop on close under .9339 or intraday break of .9310. Target to exit is .9534 this week. Day Trade: buy .9413/09 to .9398; exit day longs at .9481; sell .9534/47.

Published on  Wed, Jun 18 2008, 06:38 GMT

Archive

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)  | Montpelier, Vermont
http://www.globalmarketresearch.com | FXTechinfo@globalmarketresearch.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

GMR does not guarantee the accuracy or the completeness of the information or data provided here, on its website or in its newsletters. The opinions and trading strategies are for informational purposes only. GMR makes no warranty, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from the use of the information contained here, on its website or in its newsletters. GMR specifically disclaims the warranties of non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall GMR be liable for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential, incidental or any other damages (including lost profits) even if GMR has been advised of the possibility of such damages.

Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!


ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
Forex Capital Markets, LLC (FXCM)
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
FXDD
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account		Ikon GM - Royal Division
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account		FXA Securities Ltd ( MF Global Group)
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account

FXstreet.com will give you a 3 months membership as soon as minimum rebates have been generated (€150 for private trader/ €300 for corporate trader)

[Read Premium full description]


Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer.

Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management.

Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

©2008 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.