Daily Technical Outlook

Daily Technical Outlook

Fri, Jun 20 2008, 04:33 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The focus right now is on the short-term corrections lower in the USD that are headed for either weekly uptrend or developing July supports. The primary candidates are $/JPY backing up to its weekly uptrend at 106.41/40 (with July base at 105.24/104.91); $/CAD approaching its July/weekly base at 1.0042/20; and Aussie working higher to its July sell level at .9570. All are places to structure US$ longs against. Sterling continues its difficult price action. Yesterday’s settle above the July/Q3 trio at 1.9610 to 1.9690 leaves a more neutral situation - but with another round of longer-term resistance to come at 1.9800/70 (weekly/Q3).


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend is expected to stay bullish, but with a neutral to bullish setup forming for next week. Supports for the week are developing trend at 106.41/40, second weekly level at 106.00 and the combined July base at 105.24 to 104.91. The July setup is open-ended above there. Resistance for the week is developing at 108.78, then 110.14. Given both the weekly and July bias, strategy is to set partial longs against 106.41/40 trend; if stopped will reset at 105.24/104.91.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral from Wednesday’s downtrend. There is no lean either way today. The setup is neutral. Supports are 107.80/67, 107.05 and the weekly trend buy level at 106.41/40. Day resistance is 108.39/47, but with jump above there to first fixed weekly level at 110.14. Projecting a 107.67 to 108.47 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 106.41/40 – stop on close under 106.00 today. If stopped, will reset at 105.24/104.91 July zone. Day Trade: buy 107.80/67 and 107.05; exit day longs at 108.39/47.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The weekly picture in $/Swiss remains neutral, with lots of noise to both sides. The larger boundaries on the market come from the developing July/Q3 parameters. Above the market, that is the July level at 1.0620 and Q3 downtrend at 1.0715. Below the market, it is July zone at 1.0120 to 1.0075. Weekly resistance at 1.0485/1.0505 and supports at 1.0370 and 1.0220 lie within there, but neither are actionable levels. Next trade is to wait to set shorts against 1.0715.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend stayed neutral with Thursday’s rally, failing to turn bearish. The outside range – and the presence of weekly resistance at 1.0484/1.0505 – makes for a neutral setup as well. Resistance is 1.0480/1.0505, then 1.0595 and July level at 1.0620. Supports are 1.0345 and 1.0275. Expecting a two-way day from 1.0505 high to 1.0345 low.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Will move 50% short at 1.0715 – stop on close above 1.0785 for now Day Trade: buy against 1.0345; exit day longs at 1.0485/1.0505.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. This week’s rally back above the trio of July/Q3 levels at 1.9610, 1.9665 and 1.9690 puts the situation back to neutral here – but does not yet turn it bullish. The setup for next week looks neutral, with more upside resistance to come at 1.9800 for the week and developing Q3 hurdle of 1.9870. Thru there does turn more positive, with minimum upside to 2.0095 for the week. Supports – besides the still-in-play Q3/July trio – are 1.9505 and 1.9420. Expecting 1.9800/70 to 1.9420 trade next week. Will reset partial shorts at 1.9800/70.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is bullish, but offset by further weekly and longer-term resistance at 1.9800 and 1.9870 today. Supports today are 1.9675, 1.9640 and the daily uptrend at 1.9610. Expecting a 1.9640 to 1.9800 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after stopping the 1.9665 short on the close above 1.9700. Will reset to 25% short at 1.9800; 50% short at 1.9870 – stop on close above 1.9870. Day Trade: buy 1.9640/10; sell 1.9800 and 1.9870.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral for next week, but with a widespread and potentially unstable setup for next week. The bigger risk appears to be to the upside. The main level in play for the weekly close is 1.5490. Any settle above there leaves no resistance until 1.5870/80, then July level at 1.6085. Supports under 1.5490 are not nearly as deep, with weekly levels at 1.5390 and 1.5325/10, then drop to Q3 trend at 1.5115. Expecting a 1.5325 to 1.5870/80 range action. No new position trade for now.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily momentum stayed marginally bullish Thursday. But the widespread action Thursday leaves a neutral setup today. Resistance is 1.5555 and 1.5630. Supports are 1.5470, 1.5435 and weekly level at 1.5390. This does not look like a major directional setup - expecting a 1.5435 to 1.5555 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, will wait to move 50% long at 1.5115/00 – stop on close under 1.5100. Day Trade: buy weakness to 1.5435 and 1.5390; exit day longs at 1.5555 and 1.5630.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend should stays bullish with settle above 1.0091 today. But the overall setup for next week looks neutral between competing weekly/July boundaries to both sides. Supports are 1.0078 and the developing July/weekly zone at 1.0042/20. Under there is drop to .9925. Resistance is combined weekly/July/Q3 area at 1.0255/68/75, then the expiring June level at 1.0332. Expecting a 1.0042/20 to 1.0255/75 range action for now. Will set longs on weakness against 1.0042/20.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend remains bearish and $/CAD is still working in a correction lower. The day setup points lower. Resistance is 1.0160/61, daily trend at 1.0175 and 1.0214. Closest support is weekly/day zone at 1.0078/60 and the July/weekly buy zone at 1.0042/20. Expect a 1.0175 to 1.0078 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move to 50% long at 1.0042/20 – stop on close under 1.0010. Day Trade: sell against daily trend at 1.0160/61 to 1.0175; cover day shorts at 1.0078/60; buy 1.0042/20.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Aussie has done a great job holding above bullish monthly trend at .9339 thru the week, and should stay neutral for the week ahead. But there is more resistance approaching from above. The setup for next week looks balanced. Resistance is forming at the July level of .9570 and weekly level of .9648. Supports for the week are down at .9387/81 and .9339 June trend. In between is a weekly pivot at .9481. Strategy is to exit the remainder of longs and reverse into partial shorts against .9570.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Today’s trade is a nice balance between bullish daily trend at .9470/67 to .9452 and the key July resistance level at .9570 (with daily level at .9558 ahead of there). Projecting daily trade between there from .9470/67 to .9558/70 high.

Position Strategy: Current 25% long at .9370 average after exiting ½ at .9488/93 Thursday. Exit the rest and reverse to 50% short at .9558/70 July level. Stop new shorts on close above .9570.

Published on  Fri, Jun 20 2008, 04:33 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Thu, Jun 19 2008, 06:09 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Nothing major in the USD right now, as short-term action – the loss of bullish trend in $/JPY and bearish turns in daily trend vs. CAD and Aussie – argue for a correction lower. In $/JPY, the earliest target for a downtrend is developing weekly uptrend at 106.41/40, with the larger magnitude buy zone at 105.24/104.91 July base. $/CAD is also working lower toward its July/weekly zone at 1.0042/20; Aussie to either developing weekly trend at .9493 or July hurdle at .9570 – both places to exit out of current longs. Sterling remains contained for now, but with a negative backdrop below July/Q3 trio from 1.9610 to 1.9665/90.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend turned bearish yesterday, confirming the short-term correction lower. Although weekly momentum is still bullish above 1.0091/70, it will be shifting higher for next week – removing the immediate target. The result is a slight adjustment lower of the main support base to July/developing weekly zone at 1.0042/20. At this point, resistance for next week is forming at 1.0194 trend, 1.0238 and 1.0275. Strategy is to set longs on weakness to 1.0042/20.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend is bearish and the setup for the day tilts lower. Resistance is the daily trend zone at 1.0189/92 to 1.0205, with developing weekly/day zone at 1.0238/46 above there. Initial support is 1.0161, then drop to expiring weekly uptrend/day extreme at 1.0091/81. Expecting a 1.0205 to 1.0091 day.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Two shifts happening in opposite directions at the same time. Short-term, Wednesday’s loss of bullish daily trend signals a correction lower. At the same time, bullish weekly trend is going to move higher from 105.60/39 this week to developing level at 106.41/40 for next. That is the first target for any correction lower, with the larger July base at 105.24 to 104.91 below there. Resistance for next week is high at 110.52. The aggressive buy is to set longs at 106.41/40.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral with the downtrade Wednesday. The resulting setup is evenly balanced. Resistance today is 108.05, 108.39/49 and 109.29. Supports are immediate day level at 107.69, 107.05, then the developing weekly uptrend (buy zone) at 106.41/40. Expecting a 108.39 to 107.05 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 106.41/40 – stop on close under 106.40. If stopped, will reset at 105.24/104.91 July zone. Day Trade: buy 107.05 and 106.41; sell against 108.39/49.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/Swiss is still neutral in terms of weekly trend and setup, but with bearish-leaning daily trend applying pressure. Support is now the expiring June zone at 1.0250/25, with developing weekly base at 1.0175 (to go with this week’s 1.0185 level). Resistance for next week is initial level at 1.0380, then weekly/June zone at 1.0520/40 and 1.0565. Not a lot new in terms of strategy – will wait to sell against 1.0715 Q3 level. But the nearterm pressure likely forces test lower to 1.0250/1.0175 first.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend leans bearish with settle under 1.0420 today. The setup leans lower as well. Resistance is daily;/weekly zone at 1.0370/80, 1.0420 and 1.0480/85. An initial day support is at 1.0335, but with the more likely target at day extreme/June zone of 1.0255/35. Expect a 1.0420 to 1.0255 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Wait to move 33% short at 1.0715; 67% short at 1.0785 – stop on close above 1.0800 Day Trade: sell against bearish-leaning daily trend at 1.0420; cover at 1.0255/50.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Sterling continues to have a devil of a time trying to breakout on the downside. Still, the developing July and Q3 setups are both open-ended lower, with the developing weekly setup looking no better than neutral. Main resistance is the trio of July/Q3 levels at 1.0610, 1.9655/65 and 1.9690, with additional weekly level at 1.9755 for next week. Main support is a developing weekly level at 1.9460, before drop to expiring June level at 1.9120. Hold existing shorts against 1.9700.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is officially bullish, but with an overall neutral setup. The main focus above is the trio of Q3/July levels at 1.9610, 1.9665 and 1.9690. Day resistance is at 1.9680. Supports are 1.9520 and combined daily/weekly breakdown level at 1.9480/60. Expecting a 1.9665 to 1.9460 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 100% short at 1.9665. Stop on close above 1.9700. Cover ½ at 1.9120. Day Trade: sell against 1.9665 and 1.9680/90; cover day shorts at 1.9460/80.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral in Euro, but the setup remains an awkward trade. Supports are forming at 1.5390 and 1.5255, then drops to the Q3 trend zone at 1.5115/00. Upside is a little more difficult to gauge. Straight ahead is developing weekly trend at 1.5535 and current weekly level at 1.5585. Above there, however, sees gap to 1.5800 for next week and 1.5960 monthly level. This is a tough trade to call – for now nothing to do until buying against Q3 uptrend at 1.5115/00.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend did manage to turn bullish Wednesday, but faces an awkward neutral setup with weekly levels at 1.5535 (developing) and 1.5585 (current) above. Day extreme is at 1.5620. Supports are daily trend level at 1.5490, 1.5440 and 1.5370. Looking for a 1.5490 to 1.5585 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, will wait to move 50% long at 1.5115/00 – stop on close under 1.5100. Day Trade: buy weakness against 1.5490 daily trend; sell 1.5585 weekly level and 1.5620 day extreme.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend turned bearish yesterday, confirming the short-term correction lower. Although weekly momentum is still bullish above 1.0091/70, it will be shifting higher for next week – removing the immediate target. The result is a slight adjustment lower of the main support base to July/developing weekly zone at 1.0042/20. At this point, resistance for next week is forming at 1.0194 trend, 1.0238 and 1.0275. Strategy is to set longs on weakness to 1.0042/20.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend is bearish and the setup for the day tilts lower. Resistance is the daily trend zone at 1.0189/92 to 1.0205, with developing weekly/day zone at 1.0238/46 above there. Initial support is 1.0161, then drop to expiring weekly uptrend/day extreme at 1.0091/81. Expecting a 1.0205 to 1.0091 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move to 50% long at 1.0042/20 – stop on close under 1.0000. Day Trade: sell against 1.0205 and 1.0238/46; buy weakness to 1.0191/81.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. The intermediate situation remains neutral here as long as the monthly uptrend at .9339 holds. Next week’s setup is shaping up as a battle between there and what should be bearish-leaning weekly trend at .9493. A developing July hurdle is also forming at .9570. Support for next week is primarily the .9339 monthly trend, but with fixed weekly level at .9292 under there. Will exit part of the existing long at .9493; the rest at .9570.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend did turn bullish yesterday, leaving a neutral to bullish setup. Supports are .9445, the daily trend zone at .9422/15 and day extreme at .9374. Main resistance is combined daily level and developing weekly trend at .9488/93, with existing weekly level at .9534 above there. Looking for an up day from .9422 to .9488/93 day.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9370 average. Stop on close under .9339 or intraday break of .9310. Exit ½ at .9488/93 today; exit the rest at .9570 July level. Day Trade: buy daily trend at .9422/15; sell .9488/93.

Published on  Thu, Jun 19 2008, 06:09 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Wed, Jun 18 2008, 06:28 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Still a wild trade in Sterling – but with a negative backdrop as long as the combined weekly/July/Q3 resistance at 1.9655/65 to 1.9690 holds. Today’s follow-up to the Mon/Tues back and forth action is expected to be neutral. The main breakdown level for the week is still 1.9355. Elsewhere, daily trend in $/CAD leans bearish under 1.0217/32 today, likely forcing a correction to the larger weekly uptrend/July buy zone at 1.0091/70 to 1.0042. Aussie is still trying to rebound off its monthly uptrend at .9339. Day trend leans bullish above .9398 today; weekly target is still .9534. Euro is seen from 1.5445/25 to 1.5575/85..


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish. Other than the daily uptrend stalling to a near standstill, there has not been a lot of change so far this week. Trend is bullish and the intermediate setup still points higher. Supports are 106.64 weekly level, 105.60/39 weekly uptrend and developing July base at 105.27/24. There is no resistance for the week until 110.32, with expiring June level at 112.14. Strategy remains focused on buying weakness, starting at 106.64 and extending to 105.60/24.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is still officially bullish, but effectively neutral in terms of setup. Resistance today is 108.16, 108.55 and 108.83. Supports are 107.75, 107.23 and the combined weekly buy level/day extreme at 106.64/56. The uptrend ends with settle under 108.01. Expecting a 108.55 to 107.23 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 33% long at 106.64; 75% long at 105.60; 100% long at 105.27/24 – stop on close under 105.00. The target is 112.14 June level. Day Trade: buy 107.23 and 106.64/56; exit day longs at 108.55 and 108.83.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/Swiss continues to wander in a holding pattern, with no directional inclination at the moment. What little bias there was in terms of bullish daily trend, was lost yesterday with the downturn. The setup for the week remains balanced. Support are 1.0365, June zone at 1.0250/25 and 1.0185. Resistance is combined weekly/June area at 1.0540/45 to 1.0580, then skips to the 1.0715 Q3 sell level. Nothing to do at current levels. Strategy is to wait to sell 1.0715/85.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral with Tuesday’s backslide. That signals a correction lower toward weekly supports. The day setup is neutral once again, however. Supports are combined daily/weekly zone at 1.0370/65 and 1.0250/30. Resistance is 1.0430/40, 1.0510 and the weekly/day area at 1.0540/45. Expecting a 1.0510 to 1.0370/65 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Wait to move 33% short at 1.0715; 67% short at 1.0785 – stop on close above 1.0800 Day Trade: sell 1.0510 and 1.0540/45; cover day shorts at 1.0370/65; buy 1.0250/30.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Sterling continues to trade all over the map – but importantly, is staying under the key combination of weekly/July/Q3 traffic from 1.9655/65 to 1.9690. As long as it does so, the long-term setups are open-ended lower and the weekly setup is neutral to bearish. Lone nearby support is 1.9355 for the week, before drop to 1.9120. Resistance above 1.9690 jumps to 1.9835/70. Hold existing shorts against 1.9700 to cover at 1.9120.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral here with no lean either way today. But the wide ranges so far this week – up Monday; down Tuesday – leave an equally widespread setup. Day resistance is 1.9620 and 1.9715. Supports are 1.9390, weekly breakdown level at 1.9355 and 1.9255. Expecting a 1.9620 to 1.9390 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 100% short at 1.9665. Stop on close above 1.9700. Cover ½ at 1.9120. Day Trade: sell against 1.9620 and 19655/65; cover day shorts at 1.9390 and 1.9355.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Both weekly trend and setup remains neutral here, though with bullish-leaning daily trend edging Euro higher toward weekly resistance. The only nearby weekly hurdle is 1.5585, with gap thru there to 1.5865 and weekly/June zone at 1.5910/60. Supports for the week are still well back at 1.5320 and 1.5240, then the developing Q3 trend at 1.5115/00. Daily momentum can turn bullish above 1.5445 today. No hurry to position this market. Will wait to buy 1.5115/00 for now.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with settle above 1.5445/25 today, prompting what should be a run at the main weekly hurdle of 1.5585. The first day resistance of 1.5575 happens to intersect at that same area. Above there is jump to 1.5755. Supports are 1.5445/25 trend, 1.5395 and 1.5340. Expecting a 1.5445/25 to 1.5575/85 range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, will wait to move 50% long at 1.5115/00 – stop on close under 1.5100. Day Trade: buy weakness against the 1.5445/25 trend zone; sell daily/weekly zone at 1.5575/85.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend is still bullish, with solid weekly/July supports at 1.0091/70 to 1.0042. That said, the bearish lean in daily trend today (under 1.0232) suggests a short-term correction lower to base supports. The initial Q3 level at 1.0169 was hit Tuesday. The 1.0091/70 and 1.0042 levels are places to set longs against. Resistance for the week – other than daily trend – remain high at 1.0332 and 1.0362. Strategy is to buy 1.0091/70 and 1.0042. Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend leans bearish today with settle under 1.0232, and the day setup does point modestly lower. Resistance is 1.0195 and 1.0217/32 trend zone, before skipping to 1.0293. Day support is 1.0133, then the first weekly buy area at 1.0091/70. Expecting a 1.0217 to 1.0133 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after cover the 1.0323/32 short at the 1.0169 Q3 level on Tuesday. On further weakness, move to 50% long at 1.0091/70; 100% long at 1.0042 – stop on close under 1.0020. Day Trade: sell 1.0217/32; buy 1.0091/70.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Aussie continues to try to mount a rally off the bullish monthly trend level of .9339. The overall setup this week is neutral as long as that holds, with the bullish-lean in daily trend above .9398 today pointing higher in the short-term. The primary weekly resistance target for the week is .9534, with jump to .9651 above there. Other than .9339, support drops away to .9175 for the week and .9107 Q3 trend level. Strategy is to hold existing longs against .9339 for .9534 target.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with settle above .9398 today. The setup is neutral to modestly bullish. Supports are .9413/09 to .9390, then the key monthly breakdown zone at .9339. Day resistance is .9481, with the weekly target at .9534 above there. Projecting a .9413/09 to .9481 day range.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9370 average. Stop on close under .9339 or intraday break of .9310. Target to exit is .9534 this week. Day Trade: buy .9413/09 to .9398; exit day longs at .9481; sell .9534/47.

Published on  Wed, Jun 18 2008, 06:28 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Tue, Jun 17 2008, 06:50 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Of the three focus markets for the week - $/JPY, Sterling and $/CAD – Sterling was the main mover yesterday. Despite another one of those big boomerang bounces, it remains below the combined Q3/weekly/July resistance at 1.9655/65 to 1.9690. That is the focus for shorts right here, while the breakdown level for the week remains 1.9355. $/CAD also failed to turn daily trend bullish, suggesting a push lower toward its long-term support base from Q3 level at 1.0169 (cover shorts) to weekly uptrend/July zone at 1.0091/42 (set longs). Aussie remains neutral to bullish as long as it holds above monthly trend at .9339.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish. No major change on the weekly picture yesterday – although the daily uptrend is starting to tire and is in danger of forcing a short-term correction lower. Supports for the week are the mix of weekly levels – where trend is bullish – and developing July/Q3 supports. Those supports start at 106.64, then extend to weekly trend/July zone at 105.60/39, plus Q3/July zone at 105.27/24. There is no resistance this week until 110.32. Strategy is to scale into longs on weakness to 106.64 and 105.60/24.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is still officially bullish, but slowing. It can turn neutral with settle under 107.96/93 today and the setup for the day is neutral. Resistance is 108.20, 108.78 and 109.54. (There is no weekly level until 110.32.) Supports are 107.96/93 trend, then 107.44/29. Projecting a 108.78 to 107.44 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 33% long at 106.64; 75% long at 105.60; 100% long at 105.27/24 – stop on close under 105.00. The target is 112.14 June level. Day Trade: buy 107.44/29; sell 108.78.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/Swiss remains in a holding pattern, with no clear directional bias either way at this point. Weekly trend is neutral and the setup this week is balanced. Resistance is weekly/June zone at 1.0540/45 to 1.0580. Above there is gap to 1.0715 Q3 level. Supports are 1.0365, June monthly baser at 1.0250/25 and 1.0185 and 1.0110 weekly levels. The modest daily uptrend that has been driving things higher in the short-term turns neutral under 1.0440 today. Strategy is to wait to sell 1.0715/85.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is still marginally bullish, but with overall neutral setup today. Resistance is 1.0500/05 and the weekly hurdles at 1.0540/45 and 1.0580. Key support is combined daily/weekly zone at 1.0365/60, then drop to 1.0250/25. Expecting a 1.0500 to 1.0365 day. Getting under 1.0360 turns more negative.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Wait to move 33% short at 1.0715; 67% short at 1.0785 – stop on close above 1.0800 Day Trade: sell 1.0500/05; buy 1.0365/60; go with action under 1.0360 (for 1.0250/25 target).


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Monday saw another wild boomerang trade in Sterling – but still within resistance boundaries at the key developing Q3/July zone from 1.9615 to 1.9655/65 to 1.9690. That trio remains the sell zone for potentially larger downside this week. Lone nearby weekly support is 1.9355, before drop to the July extreme at 1.9120. Above 1.9690 sees jump to 1.9835 and second Q3 level at 1.9870. Strategy is to hold existing shorts against 1.9700 for 1.9120 target.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Sterling presents an interesting daily setup, where trend reversed bullish Monday but at the same time Cable faces the key weekly/July/Q3 resistance at 1.9655/65 to 1.9690. The result should be a neutral day range. Above there is jump to 1.9835/55. Supports are 1.9580, 1.9520/15 daily trend and 1.9405. Expecting a 1.9690 to 1.9520/15 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 100% short at 1.9665 after adding shorts Monday. Stop on close above 1.9700. Day Trade: sell against 1.9655/65 and 1.9690; buy weakness to 1.9520/15 trend.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Euro continues to bounce around within a balanced intermediate setup. The lone change Monday was the neutral upturn in daily trend from bearish to neutral. Resistance for the week remains at 1.5585, then jumps to 1.5865 and the weekly/June/July area from 1.5910/60. Supports for the week are 1.5320 and 1.5240, before the drop to Q3 developing trend base at 1.5115/00. Still projecting a 1.5585 to 1.5115 week – expect test to 1.5585 today. Lacking direction, strategy for now is conservative – wait to buy 1.5115/00. Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend turned from bearish to neutral with the rally Monday. But the setup today is contained and expected to stay range bound. Resistance is 1.5505 and daily/weekly level at 1.5585, before jump to 1.5750. Supports are 1.5390 and daily/weekly zone at 1.5325/20. Looking for a 1.5390 to 1.5585 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, will wait to move 50% long at 1.5115/00 – stop on close under 1.5100. Day Trade: sell strength against 1.5585; buy weakness to 1.5325/20 and 1.5240.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. No major changes Monday. Weekly trend leans bullish (above 1.0091) this week, and the developing Q3 and July setups both point increasingly higher. For the week, however, a widespread setup argues for more two-way trade. Supports are first Q3 level at 1.0169, then the weekly/July buy zone form 1.0191/70 to 1.0042. Resistance for the week is 1.0332 and 1.0362 weekly level. Strategy is to buy cover existing shorts at 1.0169; buy weakness to 1.0191/70/42.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend stayed neutral Monday, failing to turn bullish with the setback. The resulting setup is neutral as well. Main support is the combined daily and Q3 zone at 1.0184/82 to 1.0169. Under there is drop to 1.0107. Resistance today is 1.0240, 1.0288 and 1.0303. Expecting a two-way day from 1.0169 to 1.0288.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.0323/32. Stop on close above 1.0362. Cover shorts at the 1.0169 Q3 level; move to 50% long at 1.0091/70; 100% long at 1.0042 – stop on close under 1.0020.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. The intermediate focus this week is still on the monthly uptrend at .9339. As long as it holds – and Monday’s neutral upturn in daily trend is the first objective sign – the overall setup is neutral. Resistance for the week is initial level at .9421, then the primary weekly ra4rget at .9534. Conversely, if .9229 gives way, support drops to the .9175 for the week and developing Q3 uptrend at .9107. Strategy is to hold existing long against .9339 to exit at .9534.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum managed to turn neutral with the rally Monday. The setup today is neutral to potentially positive. Supports are .9404, .9383/79 and the combined daily/June uptrend at .9344/39. Initial resistance is weekly/day zone at .9421/35, with jump above to .9511. Expecting a .9379 to .9435 day – with extension risk above there.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9370 average from last week. Stop on close under .9339 or intraday break of .9310. Target to exit is .9533 this week. Day Trade: buy .9383/79 and .9344/39; exit day longs at .9435.

Published on  Tue, Jun 17 2008, 06:50 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Mon, Jun 16 2008, 08:26 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The main directional trades this week are $/JPY and Sterling. $/CAD is also building into a stronger upside formation for July/Q3, with Aussie in increasing danger of a breakdown under its monthly uptrend at .9339. $/JPY is the cleanest picture, with bullish trend above 106.64 to 105.60/39 and no resistance to 110.32 for the week and 112.14 for June. Sterling has a negative setup, together with the additional pressure of open-ended downside risk for July/Q3. Expecting a 1.9655/65 to 1.9120 week. $/CAD is trend up, with nice weekly buy zone at 1.0091/42. In addition, both the Q3 (above 1.0169) and July (above 1.0042) setups are open-ended.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish. This is a solid bullish picture for the week, with trend now officially bullish and the close above the Q3/June area at 106.35/82 leaving an upside opening. Closest resistance is 110.32 weekly level, with the expected June target not 112.14. Supports for the week are 106.64, weekly trend zone at 105.60/39, then drop to 102.88/80. Bullish daily trend is also at 107.56 for Monday. Projecting a 105.60/39 t0 110.32 week. Will scale into longs at 106.64 and 105.60/39.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend starts the week still bullish, but with a neutral, two-way setup. Main day resistance is 108.51 to 108.72, before jump to 110.01. Supports are 107.55/48 trend, 107.20 and combined day extreme/weekly zone at 106.72/64. Expecting a 107.48 to 108.51/72 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 106.64; 100% long at 105.60/39 – stop on close under 105.00. The target is 112.14 June level. Day Trade Monday: buy 107.55/48 and 107.20; exit day longs at 108.51/72.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly momentum is neutral, with no clean bias either way this week. In addition, the outside range last week starts things off with a widespread, neutral setup. Resistance is June/weekly zone at 1.0540/45 to 1.0580, then jumps to the Q3/June sell zone at 1.0715 to 1.0785. Supports for the week are 1.0365, 1.0250/25 June zone and 1.0190. Daily trend is bullish (above 1.0420) for Monday. Projecting a 1.0225 to 1.0715 weekly range. Will set shorts on strength to 1.0715 and 1.0785.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is bullish above 1.0415, and the bias is higher toward weekly resistance as long as the USD holds above there. The main targets today are 1.0540/45 and combined weekly/day zone at 1.0580/90. Supports are 1.0435/15 trend and 1.0365 weekly level. Projecting a 1.0415 to 1.0540/45 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 33% short at 1.0715; 67% short at 1.0785 – stop on close above 1.0800 Day Trade: buy weakness against 1.0415 daily trend; sell 1.0540/45 and 1.0580/90.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Sterling has a very dicey long-term setup, with asymmetric risk lower for both July and Q3. Combined with a negative bias on the weekly setup, the risk this week is for a washout lower. Weekly resistance is 1.9515, 1.9655 and 1.9835. In addition, both the developing July (under 1.9480) and Q3 (under 1.9665) setups are open lower. Lone nearby support is 1.9355, then gap to 1.9120. Expecting a 1.9655/65 to 1.9120 week. Will add/hold shorts against 1.9655/65 on strength or on close under 1.9355 on weakness.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish, with an excellent combination of new weekly and daily resistance to sell against at 1.9515/30. Above there is intraday jump to 1.9595. Supports are 1.9390/75 and weekly breakdown level at 1.9355. Expecting a 1.9515/30 to 1.9390 day range..

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.9665. Add to 100% short at 1.9655/65 – stop on close above there. Also move 100% short on close under 1.9355 (limit on new shorts is 1.9325). Day Trade: sell 1.9515/30; cover at 1.9390/75.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend and setup are both neutral here, and this remains a very difficult market to trade right now. Developing resistance for next week is 1.5585, then jumps to 1.5865 and 1.5910. The larger June resistance is still high at 1.5960. Supports for the week are combined weekly/July level at 1.5320, 1.5240, then drops to the developing Q3 uptrend at 1.5115/00. Projecting 1.5115 to 1.5585 week. In terms of strategy, will wait to buy 1.5115/00; wait to sell 1.5910/60 for now.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend remains bearish with a negative setup today. At the same time, downside is neutralized by the new weekly supports at 1.5320 and 1.5240. First day support is 1.5215. Resistance for the day is 1.5365, daily trend at 1.5435/50 and 1.5545. Projecting a 1.5240 low to 1.5435/50 high.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, will wait to move 50% long at 1.5115/00 – stop on close under 1.5100. Day Trade Monday: sell 1.5435/50 daily trend; cover/buy 1.5240 and 1.5215.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend is bullish and the developing July/Q3 setups are also getting increasingly onesided. Although the setup this week is widespread and neutral, the goal is to cover shorts and get into longs on weakness. Supports are developing Q3 level at 1.0169, the weekly uptrend at 1.0091/70 and developing July/weekly level at 1.0042. Resistance is June hurdle at 1.0332, 1.0362 and 1.0424. Projecting a 1.0091 to 1.0362 week. Will cover shorts at 1.0169; set longs at 1.0091/42.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily momentum can return to bullish with settle above 1.0237/28 today. The day setup points modestly higher. Supports are 1.0267, 1.0237/28 and 1.0167/60. Earliest resistance is combined daily/June area at 1.0321/32. Projecting a 1.0237/28 to 1.0321/32 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.0323/32. Stop on close above 1.0362. Cover at the 1.0169 Q3 level; move to 50% long at 1.0091/70; 100% long at 1.0042 – stop on close under 1.0020.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Although the bullish monthly trend at .9339 did manage to hold Friday, Aussie is expected to stay under pressure this week. The fact weekly trend fell from bullish to neutral is one source of that pressure. In addition, the weekly setup – aside from the .9339 level – points lower. Resistance is .9421, .9534 and .9651. Below .9339 is minimum drop to .9175 for the week and developing Q3 trend at .9107. Projecting a .9534 to .9339 week – but with sharp extension risk under .9339.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. This is another battle between bearish daily trend (at .9401/06 today) and the key monthly uptrend support at .9339. The setup is neutral between there, with day support at .9343/41 and weekly level at .9421 reinforcing both sides. Under .9343/39 sees both intraday and intraweek drop to .9189/75. Expecting a .9406 to .9339 day.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9370 average from last Thursday. Stop on close under .9339 or intraday break of .9310. Target to exit is .9533 this week. Day Trade: sell .9401/06 and .9421 weekly level; also go with action under .9343/39.

Published on  Mon, Jun 16 2008, 08:26 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Fri, Jun 13 2008, 06:07 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The directional movers at this point are $/JPY and Sterling. Weekly trend is turning bullish in $/JPY, with upside now more expansive above both the broken Q3/June zone at 106.35/82 and developing weekly trend base at 106.05/105.39. That remains the buy zone for upside to June ceiling at 112.14. Weekly trend in Sterling is going to be neutral – but with open-ended downside bias under 1.9540 and no monthly support until 1.9120. Will hold existing shorts against 1.9540/65 for 1.9120 target. The other market in play today is Aussie, where the monthly uptrend at .9339 is in danger of giving way.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish. Weekly trend is all set to turn bullish with any close above 104.57 today. More importantly, a hold above the developing Q3 and June levels at 106.35 and 106.82 leaves an outright bullish setup. In addition, supports for next week are forming at 106.15 and 105.45/39 trend, before drop to 103.13. Upside on the developing weekly picture is open-ended at this point (closest level is 109.64), with no fixed long-term level until 112.14 June target. Will buy 106.15 and 105.45/39 for 112.14 target.

Daily Comments – Bullish. Daily trend is bullish and the setup for the day points higher. The fact the developing weekly setup has open-ended upside risk adds to the bullish skew. Supports are 107.70, daily trend at 107.21 and 106.94. Daily resistance is 108.32 and 109.56 extreme. Projecting a 107.21 to 109.56 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 106.15; 100% long at 105.45/39 – stop on close under 105.00. The likely target will be 112.14 later month. Day Trade: buy 107.21 and 106.94; exit day longs at 108.3 and 109.56


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral in $/Swiss, with no discernible breakout to either side of the monthly setup. Unlike $/JPY, $/Swiss remains well below its developing Q3 and June hurdles at 1.0715 and 1.0780. Initial weekly hurdles lie at 1.0540 and 1.0625 as well. Main support for next week is from June base at 1.0250/20 to 1.0190, with 1.0110 under there. Expecting more range action from 1.0250/20 to 1.0625. No clear trade here until the sale against 1.0710/85.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily momentum did turn bullish Thursday, but is left with an overall balanced setup today. Day resistance is 1.0470 and 1.0515, with the June hurdle at 1.0540 above there. Supports are 1.0385 daily uptrend, then 1.0295/90 and 1.0250/30 June base. Expecting a 1.0295 to 1.0515/40 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. No new position strategy for now – will wait to sell 1.0715 and 1.0785. Day Trade: buy weakness to 1.0295/90 and 1.0250/20; exit day longs at 1.0470 and 1.0515; sell 1.0540.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Weekly trend is going to start next week neutral. But more importantly, the developing weekly setup is now open-ended lower below 1.9540. That is first resistance for next week, with 1.9680, then June level at 1.9765/90 above there. Bearish daily trend also intersects at 1.9565 today. Under 1.9540/65, there is no fixed support until the June level at 1.9120. Hold existing shorts against 1.9540/65 today; target is 1.9120.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend and setup are both bearish, with the developing weekly setup open-ended lower under 1.9540. The combination points lower today. Resistance is 1.9495, weekly level at 1.9540, day trend at 1.9565 and 1.9610. Supports are 1.9385 and 1.9200. Projecting a 1.9540 to 1.9385 day – with potential extension under 1.9385.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.9665 from Wednesday. Lower stop to close above 1.9565 today. The target to cover is June level at 1.9120. Day Trade: sell 1.9540/65; cover day shorts at 1.9385; go with action under 1.9385


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The only real news here this week is that weekly trend is set to fall from bullish to neutral with settle under 1.5650 today. The setup otherwise looks balanced for next week. Resistance is forming at 1.5600, 1.5815 and 1.5910 to June level at 1.5960. Main support will be the still in play June breakdown level at 1.5430 and a weekly level at +/-1.5330/10, before drop-off to 1.5115/00. Strategy is to hold the existing partial long against 1.5430 today. Staying above there targets 1.5815/1.5910 for next week.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend is bearish in Euro, and the setup today points modestly lower. Resistance is 1.5435, the daily trend level at 1.5495 and 1.5545. Other than the wobbly 1.5430 June level, there is no support until the combined daily and developing weekly breakdown zone at 1.5330/10. Projecting a 1.5495 to 1.5330/10 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.5430/05 from Thursday. Stop on close under 1.5430 or intraday break of 1.5380 . The target is 1.5815 next week. Day Trade: sell against 1.5495 trend and 1.5545; buy weakness to 1.5330/10.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend should easily stay bullish (with any settle above .9977 today), but faces a huge widespread and neutral setup next week. Resistance for the June level at 1.0332 and 1.0362, with 1.0424 above there. Supports are developing weekly trend at 1.0060 to 1.0026, before drop to .9889. The fact daily trend fell neutral Wednesday signals we are likely already in a correction lower toward 1.0060/26. Strategy is to add/hold shorts against 1.0362; cover/set longs at 1.0060/26.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral from Wednesday’s downturn. The setup today is neutral and evenly balanced. Resistance is 1.0274/92, the June level at 1.0332 and developing weekly sell level at 1.0362. Supports are 1.0188/74, then drop to 1.0092. Expecting a balanced, two-way day from 1.0274/92 to 1.0188/74.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.0323/32. Add to 75% short at 1.0362 – stop on close above there. Cover and reverse 25% long at 1.0060; add to 50% long at 1.0026 – stop on close under 1.0010.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Aussie is hanging on a string above the key long-term support at bullish monthly trend of .9404 to .9339. As long as it ends the week above there, the overall setup is neutral. But getting below .9339 sees downside drop away sharply. As it now stands, resistance for the week is forming at .9433, .9529 and .9651. Below .9339 sees drop to .9175 for next week and developing Q3 trend at .9107. Strategy is to hold existing longs against .9339 for .9529 weekly target.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish under .9438 today, a level that matches up nicely with the initial weekly resistance at .9433. The larger risk for the day is down, but with the setup initially neutral until the June/weekly zone at .9339/24 gives way. Under there is drop to .9221. Resistance is .9396, .9433/38 and .9474. Expecting a .9433 to .9324 day.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9370 average after buying .9404 and .9339 yesterday. Stop on close under .9339 or intraday break of .9310. Target is .9526. Day Trade: sell .9433/38; also sell break under .9339/24.

Published on  Fri, Jun 13 2008, 06:07 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Tue, Jun 10 2008, 06:11 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

There are no easy trades in the USD at this point. Weekly trend in $/JPY still leans bullish above 104.57/53, and is pushing against its Q3/June sell zone at 106.35/82 – the focus for today. In Euro, Monday’s big retreat didn’t change a lot. Main supports are still 1.5515 and 1.5430/05 for the week, with resistance target sill 1.5930/65. Sterling is battling against its June/Q3 levels at 1.9765/90 and 1.9870, the latter a place to reset shorts against. Aussie faded back under both weekly uptrend and initial June support at .9511 yesterday. Expecting to now test monthly uptrend at .9404/.9339.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. Still a battle here between bullish-leaning weekly trend at 104.57/53 and the larger Q3/June resistance at 105.35 to 106.82. A weekly level is also at 107.03, before upside jumps more sharply to 109.75 for the week. Other than 104.57/53, support drops back to weekly/June base at 102.63/50 and 101.85. Still projecting a two-way week from 106.82/107.03 high to 102.63 low. Will add/hold shorts against the 106.82/107.03 zone.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral, with Friday and Monday’s opposite directional moves offsetting each other. The day setup is balanced. Supports today are 105.58, 104.90 and weekly/day zone at 104.57/41. Day resistance is 106.63, with longer-term levels at 106.35 (Q3) and 106.82 (June) to either side. Expecting a 104.90 to 106.63 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 75% short at 105.98 average. Add to 100% short at 106.82 – stop on close above 107.03. Cover 1/3rd of current short (25%) at 104.57/52 weekly trend; rest at 102.63/50 June base.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is neutral, with an overall neutral setup as long as 1.0160/40 support holds. Monday’s trade also saw a rebound back above the June trend zone at 1.0250/25. Resistance is 1.0345, 1.0505 and the weekly/June sell zone at 1.0525/40. Bearish daily trend also intersects at 1.0305/20 today. Below 1.0140 sees drop to .9985 June level and .9835 weekly extreme. Expecting a 1.0345 to .9985 week. Strategy for now is to wait to sell 1.0525/40 for decline to .9985.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. The battle today is once again between bearish daily trend – at 1.0305/20 today – and the key weekly breakdown support at 1.0160/40. Day supports are also at 1.0160 and 1.0110, before drop to .9985. Resistance is 1.0305/20 trend and 1.0380. Projecting a two-way day with 1.0320 high and 1.0160/40 low.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% short at 1.0525/40 – stop on close above 1.0550. Day Trade: sell strength to 1.0305/20 daily trend and 1.0345 weekly level; cover day shorts at 1.0160/40.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. No change Monday. Weekly trend is officially bullish, but effectively neutral until the June resistance at 1.9765/90 or Q3 level at 1.9870 is cleared. Both held Monday’s rally. Above 1.9860/70 is additional weekly level at 1.9955 before upside gap to 2.0220. Supports for the week are 1.9685/45 – which also contained Monday’s early weakness – before drop to 1.9240. Still projecting a 1.9870 to 1.9240 weekly range. Will sell 1.9860/70 to cover at 1.9240.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with close above 1.9640/20 today. At the same time, upside is still limited by the June zone at 1.9765/90 and Q3 level at 1.9870. Day resistance matches up with both sides at 1.9790 and 1.9865 above; 1.9640/20 trend support below. Expecting a 1.9640 to 1.9790 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 50% short at 1.9860/70 – stop on close above 1.9955 weekly level. Target is 1.9240 this week. Day Trade: sell 1.9765 and 1.9790; buy 1.9645/40 to 1.9620.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Although Euro faded lower yesterday, weekly trend remains bullish and the market is still above the 1.5625/20 monthly pivot ceiling. As long as that area holds, there remains no resistance until weekly/June zone at 1.5935 to 1.5960 – still the weekly target. Supports for the week are 1.5650 weekly trend, 1.5515 and the monthly/weekly breakdown zone at 1.5430/05. Projecting a 1.5515 to 1.5935/60 week. Strategy remains to wait to buy 1.5430/05; wait to sell 1.5960.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend remains bullish, but Monday’s backtrack leaves a neutral setup. The early keys to direction today are weekly trend/day zone from 1.5650/45 to 1.5665/70. Under there is drop to weekly level at 1.5515 and 1.5460/40. Above there is weekly resistance at 1.57435 and 1.5910 day extreme. Projecting a 1.5515 to 1.5745 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 1.5430/05 – stop on close under 1.5400. On strength, move 25% short at 1.5935; 50% short at 1.5960 – stop on close above 1.5975.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly momentum remains bullish from last week’s reversal higher – but with overall neutral setup due to deep weekly supports. Resistance for the week is 1.0246, the June level at 1.0332 and 1.0473. Weekly supports are well back at 1.0036/24 and .9978 weekly uptrend. There is both bullish daily trend (1.0191) and the Q3 level at 1.0166/60 ahead of there. Expecting a 1.0246 to 1.0036/24 weekly range. Will set partial shorts at 1.0332; buy 1.0036/24.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is still bullish, but slowing. The day setup is neutral due to Monday’s outside range and the weekly level at 1.0246. Resistance today is 1.0235/46 to 1.0261, then jump to 1.1332 June sell level. Supports are 1.0191 daily trend, 1.0141/35 and 1.0073. Expecting a range day from 1.0246 to 1.0141.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, wait to move 50% long at 1.0036/24 – stop on close under .9975. On strength, move 50% short at 1.0323/32 – stop on close above there. Day Trade: buy 1.0141/35; sell 1.0246/61.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. It was an eventful day Monday, with the close under the weekly/June zone at .9516/11 and the bearish reversal in daily trend. Combined, they remove any bullish bias for the week and signal a rotation lower to test the bullish the monthly trend base at .9404 to .9339. There is a weekly level at .9445 ahead of there. Resistance is now bearish daily trend at .9571, then the weekly levels at 1.9652 and .9680. The new weekly range is seen from .9652/80 to .9404. Will set partial longs at .9404 and .9339.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish, with a neutral to modestly negative setup. Supports are the weekly level at .9445 and the first buy zone at deeper June support of .9404 (and day level at .9405). Resistance is daily downtrend at .9571 and the high daily/weekly zone at .9650/59. Expecting a .9571 to .9445 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat. On weakness, move 25% long at .9405/04 today; 50% long at .9339/24 – stop on close under .9330. Day Trade: sell against .9571 daily downtrend; buy .9445 and .9405/04.

Published on  Tue, Jun 10 2008, 06:11 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Fri, Jun 6 2008, 06:31 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

A true mixed bag in the USD heading into employment. The most directional picture is Sterling, with an open-ended weekly setup forming under 1.9630/90 and no fixed long-term support until 1.9120. Bearish daily trend is also at 1.9600 today. $/CAD is also trying to breakout to the upside and it too has open-ended upside risk above 1.0039 next week. But a key June/Q3 zone at 1.0160/66 remains in play for the weekly close. Elsewhere, the rally in $/JPY faces Q3/June resistance at 106.35/82; Euro is still neutral from 1.5430/05 to 1.5610/25; Aussie has tentative weekly setup from .9498 to .9624.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The battle setting up for next week looks to be between bullish-leaning weekly trend forming at 104.57/51 and the longer-term resistance at 106.35 (Q3) and 106.82 (June). A weekly level is also at 107.03, before upside turns open to the monthly extreme at 112.14. Supports for the week are developing at 105.25, 104.57/51 trend and the monthly base at 102.53/50. Strategy remains to add/hold shorts against 106.82 for rotation back to 102.53/50. Above 107 is more bullish.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily momentum can turn bullish with settle above 105.31/21 today – an area that matches up with first weekly support at 105.25. The setup is neutral to bullish. Resistance is Q3 level at 106.35 and June level at 106.82. Supports under 105.31/21 drop to 104.85 and developing weekly trend at 104.57/51. Expecting a 105.31/21 to 106.35 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 75% short at 105.98 average after adding shorts at 106.35 Thursday. Add to 100% short at 106.82 – stop on close above 107.03. Cover 1/3rd of current short (25%) at 104.57/51 weekly trend; rest at 102.53/50 June base.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. There has been no resolution so far, with the initial June boundaries at 1.0250/25 and 1.0540 both holding. Weekly trend and setup look to stay neutral for next week. Developing weekly resistance is 1.0505, then 1.0540, before jump to the Q3/June sell zone at 1.0715 to 1.0785. Weekly supports are forming at 1.0320 and 1.0220, with the monthly base at 1.0250/25 as well. Under 1.0200 sees minimum drop to 1.0015. Will add partial longs against 1.0250/20; wait to sell 1.0715/85.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend did turn trend down with Thursday’s weak close. But the outside range – and weekly/June supports below – leave an overall neutral day setup. Supports are 1.0320, 1.0280 and day/June zone at 1.0260/50 to 1.0225/20. Resistance is 1.0450 and 1.0540 June level. Expecting a 1.0450 to 1.0280 day.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215/00. On weakness, add to 50% long at 1.0250/25 – stop on close under 1.0220. On strength, exit longs at 1.0540. Day Trade: sell 1.0450 and 1.0505; cover shorts at 1.0280; buy 1.0260/50.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral (with potential to reverse bearish under 1.9480 today). More importantly, risk on both the developing weekly and June setups is skewed lower. Developing weekly resistance is 1.9630 and 1.9685/90; June hurdles lie above there at 1.9765, 1.9790 and Q3 level of 1.9870. The closest support next week will be 1.9240, with no monthly level below until 1.9120. Look to set shorts against 1.9685/90 for trade to 1.9120.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish, but with an initially neutral setup today. Initial support is 1.9515 to expiring weekly zone at 1.9490/80. Under there is drop to 1.9390. Resistance is daily trend at 1.9590/1.9600, weekly/day sell zone at 1.9630/40 and second weekly sell structure 1.9685/90. Expecting a 1.9630/40 to 1.9490/80 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 25% short at 1.9630/40 today; 75% short at 1.9685/90 – stop on close above 1.9700. Target is 1.9120 this month. Day Trade: sell 1.9600 and 1.9630/40; cover at 1.9490/80.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The bottom line – at least so far this week - is that Euro has been able to hold above both the monthly and weekly breakdown levels at 1.5430 to 1.5405. Staying above there keeps an overall neutral setup for next week, with resistance forming at 1.5610/20 trend (the monthly trend is also at 1.5620/25), then 1.5755 and 1.5855. But any break under 1.5430/05 sees support drop minimally to 1.5255 for the week and to 1.5115/00 for June. For now, will still wait to set shorts on a break/close under 1.5400.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend did reverse bullish Thursday. But the outside range – combined with the weekly/June hurdle at 1.5610/25 – makes for a neutral day range. Resistance is 1.5610/25 (also a day level) and 1.5700. Supports are 1.5485, the developing weekly breakdown level at 1.5405 and 1.5380. Expecting a 1.5610/25 to 1.5405/1.5380 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% short on close under 1.5400 (limit 1.5370). The target is 1.5115/00. Day Trade: sell against daily/weekly zone at 1.5610/25; buy weakness to opposing day/weekly support at 1.5405/1.5380.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish. Weekly trend will reverse bullish with any settle above 1.0124 today. At the same time, a close above the combined June/Q3 zone at 1.0160/66 will leave a more bullish long-term picture. Resistance forming for next week is 1.0246, the subsequent June level at 1.0332 and 1.0473. Supports are 1.0036, developing weekly trend zone at .9974/70 and .9889. The focus today is how the USD closes versus the 1.0166/60 Q3/June zone. No new position trade for now.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is securely bullish today, but with a widespread and neutral setup. Main resistance is clustered around the initial weekly level at 1.0246, with day levels at 1.0230 and 1.0257. Supports are 1.0116 uptrend, 1.0092/91 and weekly level at 1.0036. Expecting a 1.0116 to 1.0230/46 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after stopping the 1.0160/66 short on the close above there Thursday. No new position trade for now. Day Trade: sell 1.02330/46/57; buy 1.0116 to 1.0092/91.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. The price action this week has been inconclusive in terms of the next directional move. Weekly trend has so far managed to stay bullish (with Friday close above .9540), but the sideways week leaves an overall neutral and balanced setup forming for next week. Resistance for next week is .9624, .9713 and June breakout level at .9752. Supports are the May/weekly zone at .9511/.9489, .9445 and the June trend base at .9404 to .9339. Will wait to buy .9404/.9339; sell .9762.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend can turn bullish with settle above .9557/46 today. But the inside range Thursday leaves a tight setup. Resistance is daily/weekly zone at .9606/24, then jumps to .9710/13. Supports are .9557/46 trend zone, then daily/weekly area at .9512/.9498 and .9445. Expecting a .9512 to .9606 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat. No hurry to be involved at these levels. Will wait to reset longs at .9404 and .9339; wait to set partial shorts at .9762 June level. Day Trade: buy .9606/24; buy .9512/.9498.

Published on  Fri, Jun 6 2008, 06:31 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Thu, Jun 5 2008, 13:02 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Sterling continues to breakdown in slow, but steady fashion. The week’s action under the June pivot area at 1.9765/90 to 1.9870, the close under bullish-leaning weekly trend at 1.9660/55 and open-ended downside on the developing weekly chart below 1.9645/85 all point lower. Will look to set partial shorts against 1.9645/85 for decline to monthly base at 1.9120. Euro has a similar intramonth breakdown gap under June/weekly zone at 1.5430/05 to 1.5115/00. The other major trade yesterday was the push higher in $/CAD, challenging the June/Q3 resistance/sell structure at 1.0160/66.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The tight, inside range this week hasn’t changed much here. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral (though it can lean bullish above 104.57/44 next week), with an overall neutral setup. The fact the resistance barrier is comprised of longer-term levels – 105.54 June hurdle, 105.85 Q2 and 106.35/82 Q3/June zone – keeps it unchanged. Supports for next week are forming at 104.57/44 trend, 103.35 and 102.53/50 monthly trend. Will add/hold shorts against 106.35/82; cover at 102.50.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is still neutral and the setup today is largely balanced. Main support is the combined developing weekly/day zone from 104.57 to 104.44/37. Under there is drop to 103.56/53. Day resistance is 105.21, then the June level at 105.54 and Q2 level at 105.85. Expecting a two-way day from 104.57/37 to 105.54.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 105.69 average. Add to 75% short at 106.35; 100% short at 106.82 – stop on close above. Cover shorts at 102.54/50 this week. Day Trade: sell 105.21 and 105.54; buy 104.44/33.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Still no change here, with both weekly trend and setup looking to remain neutral and balanced for next week. Resistance is forming at 1.0500 for the week, with the initial June hurdle still at 1.0540. Getting above there triggers upside extension to the larger Q3/June sell zone at 1.0715 to 1.0785. Support for next week is 1.0320, the monthly trend base for June at 1.0250/25 and 1.0015. Expecting more range action from 1.0250/20 to 1.0540.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend does lean bearish today, but with an overall neutral setup that should likely produce two-way trade. Main support is combined daily/developing weekly zone at 1.0330/20 and the 1.0250 June buy level. Resistance is 1.0415/20, 1.0460 and developing weekly level at 1.0500. Projecting a 1.0330/20 to 1.0460 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215/00. On weakness, add to 50% long at 1.0250/25 – stop on close under 1.0220. On strength, exit longs at 1.0540. Day Trade: buy 1.0330/20; exit day longs at 1.0460 and 1.0500.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Sterling is starting to breakdown in earnest once again. The market is now well under the pivotal June zone at 1.9765/90 to 1.9870, weekly trend is going to stay neutral with any settle under 1.9660/55 Friday, and the developing weekly setup is open-ended below 1.9645. Although there remains a current weekly extreme at 1.9490/80, the likely target is June level at 1.9120. Resistance for next week is 1.9645, 1.9685/95 and June levels at 1.9765/90 and 1.9870. Will sell 1.9645/95 for now.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend can turn bearish with settle under 1.9630/35 today, and the setup poins lower. Resistance is 1.9555, then combined daily/weekly sell zones at 1.9630/45 and 1.9680/95. Main support is 1.9490/80, then 1.9430. Expecting a 1.9630 to 1.9490/80 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% short on close under 1.5400 (limit 1.5370). The target is 1.5115/00. Day Trade: sell 1.5490/1.5505; also go with break under 1.5405/00.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. This has been a powerful rally in $/CAD this week that has the potential to reverse weekly trend bullish with settle above 1.0124 this Friday. Still, until the market sustains above the combined June and developing Q3 resistance at 1.0160/66, the setup is neutral. That remains the primary sell zone. A close above there sees gap to 1.0246 next week and 1.0332 for June. Supports for next week are 1.0036 and .9978/62 developing weekly trend. Hold shorts against 1.0166.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. The day trade is a battle between bullish daily trend at 1.0055/52 and the key Q3/June hurdle at 1.0160/66. If that is cleared, intraday upside jumps to 1.0246 and 1.0299. Initial support is 1.0129, with the daily trend/weekly zone at 1.0055/36. Expect a 1.0166 to 1.0055 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.0160/66 June/Q3 zone from late Wednesday. Stop on close above 1.0166. Day Trade: sell 1.0166 and 1.0246, separately; buy 1.0055/52/36.

Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly momentum will stay bullish with any settle above .9540 Friday, and the market has done an able job staying above the initial June support at .9511. At this point, the setup for next week looks neutral to positive. Supports are forming at .9575 trend, .9522/11 and .9445, with deeper monthly uptrend at .9404 to .9339. Main weekly resistance is high at .9715 and the June breakout of .9762. Expecting .9522/11 to .9715/62 range action.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend turned from bearish to neutral yesterday, with the outside range leaving a widespread setup. Support are .9548, weekly/June zone at .9522/11 and .9471. Resistance is .9627, .9652 and .9715 developing weekly level. Expecting a .9522 to .9627/52 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat after stopping longs on intraday break of .9490 Wednesday. Will wait to reset longs at .9404 and .9339. . Day Trade: buy .9522/11; sell .9627/52.

Published on  Thu, Jun 5 2008, 13:02 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Wed, Jun 4 2008, 06:26 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The higher USD trade Tuesday stayed in bounds, but is starting to press the intermediate breakdown levels in Sterling (under 1.9660/55 weekly trend) and Euro (June/weekly base at 1.9440/00). Sustained action under there sees significant downside on an intramonth basis to 1.9120 in Cable and 1.5115/00 in Euro. Nothing major elsewhere. $/JPY and $/Swiss are still in widespread, sideways corrective ranges. The focus on strength is Q3/June zone at 106.35/82JPY and comparable, but higher, area at 1.0715/85CH. $/CAD turned trend up on the day chart (at 1.0004/.9984 today) and targets its Q3/June area at 1.0160/66.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/JPY recovered nicely yesterday, but remains neutral for both the week and day charts. Resistance above is still terraced at 105.54 (June), 105.85 (Q2), 106.35 (Q3) and 106.82 (June), with weekly level at 106.59 as well. Until that entire zone is cleared, the situation is neutral. Weekly support is 103.56, with the June trend base at 102.54/50. Still looking for a 103.56 to 106.35 week. Will add shorts at 106.35/59/82; cover at 102.54/50.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is neutral, with no bias either way today. All three daily hurdles happen to match up with longer-term resistance: 105.54 day/June level, 106.12/35 daily/Q3 zone and 106.82/95 June level. Supports are 104.44 and daily/weekly zone at 103.59/56. Looking for a two-way range day from 104.44 to 106.12.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 105.69 average. Add to 75% short at 106.35; 100% short at 106.82 – stop on close above. Cover shorts at 102.54/50 this week. Day Trade: buy 104.44; sell 106.12/35.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/Swiss bounced nicely from first weekly support at 1.0290 Tuesday. But both weekly trend and setup remain neutral here, with the market caught for now in a sideways correction. Key resistance for the week is initial June level at 1.0540 and weekly hurdle at 1.0595. The larger ceiling is the combined Q3 trend at 1.0715 to June level at 1.0785. Supports are 1.0290, June trend/weekly base at 1.0250/25, then break to .9985. Strategy remains to buy 1.0250/25; exit longs at 1.0540/95.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum remains neutral from Monday’s downturn, but with an overall balanced setup. Expecting another two-way range trade today. Resistance is 1.0515, combined June/day zone at 1.0540/45 and 1.0595 weekly level. Supports are 1.0410 and 1.0335, with the larger weekly base at 1.0290 to 1.0250/25. Expect a 1.0335 to 1.0540/45 day.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215/00. On weakness, reset to 50% long at 1.0250/25 – stop on close under 1.0220. On strength, exit the rest at 1.0540. Day Trade: buy 1.0335 and 1.0290; sell 1.0540/45 and 1.0595.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Yesterday’s settle under bullish-leaning weekly trend at 1.9660/55 spells trouble here. Combined with the action under the monthly pivot zone at 1.9765/90 to 1.9870 and bearish-leaning daily trend (under 1.9710 today), the situation is turning more negative. Minimum drop for the week is to 1.9490/80. The larger fallout for June is potentially to 1.9120. Resistance is 1.9705/10 daily trend, 1.9765/90 and 1.9870/85. Set shorts at 1.9705/10 and 1.9765/90.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend can turn bearish with settle under 1.9705/10 today, and the setup points lower with the break/close under weekly trend at 1.9660/55. Day support is 1.9610, then drops to weekly extreme at 1.9490/80. Resistance is 1.9670, 1.9705/10 trend and 1.9765 June level. Expecting a 1.9670 to 1.9490/80 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 25% short at 1.9705/10; 50% short at 1.9765; 75% short at 1.9790 – stop on close above 1.9800. Day Trade: sell 1.9670 and 1.9705/10; cover at 1.9490/80.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Euro managed to stay above its joint weekly/June breakdown zone at 1.5440/30 to 1.5400, but remains under pressure. If that area gives way, the weekly picture turns negative with drop-off to weekly extreme and developing Q3 level at 1.5115/00. Resistance is bearish daily trend at 1.5520 today, then the weekly trend zone at 1.5620/25 and 1.5750. The focus remains on 1.5400 – getting under there will accelerate downside. Strategy is to set shorts on close under 1.5400.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is still bearish. But Tuesday’s outside range – coupled with the weekly/June base at 1.5440/30 to 1.5400 – makes for an initially neutral setup. Under 1.5400 is drop to 1.5340 and 1.5245. Resistance is 1.5520 daily trend and 1.5620/35. Expecting a sideways to lower day from 1.5520 to 1.5340.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% short on close under 1.5400 (limit 1.5370). The target is 1.5115/00. Day Trade: sell 1.5520 and 1.5620/35, separately; also go with action under 1.5400.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/CAD is now well clear of the level that turns weekly trend neutral above .9943/41 this Friday, while at the same time turning daily trend bullish and eclipsing first weekly resistance at 1.0064. The likely target is the combination of June and Q3 resistance at 1.0160/66 – the earliest place to reset shorts. Supports for the week are .9943/41, .9917 and .9830. Bullish daily trend also intersects at .9984 today. The new projected weekly high is 1.0160/66. Will reset shorts against there.

Daily Comments – Bullish. Daily trend turned bullish Tuesday and the setup today points higher. Minimum upside is to the first day level and weekly extreme at 1.0123/24. The larger June/Q3 target sits at 1.0160/66 above there. Supports are 1.0004/01, .9984 trend and .9943/41 weekly zone. Expect a 1.0004 to 1.0124 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Reset to 50% short at 1.0160/66 June/Q3 zone – stop on close above there. Day Trade: buy weakness against 1.0004/01 and .9984 daily trend; sell daily/weekly zone at 1.0123/24 and 1.0160/66.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Aussie is still officially trend up (it turns neutral with Friday close under .9540) and is hanging on above the key weekly/June support at .9515/11 – but remains under pressure. If .9515/11 gives way, downside drops effectively to the deeper monthly uptrend base at .9404 to .9339. There is a weekly level at .9445 on the way down. Resistance at this point comes primarily from daily trend at .9545, plus weekly levels at .9566 and .9617. Still looking for a .9617 to .9445 week. Hold current longs against .9511.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish, with a negative bias for the day setup. Resistance is .9545 daily trend, .9566/76 daily/weekly zone and .9617. There is no day support until .9480/62 – although there remains the weekly/June zone at .9515/11 on the way lower. Based on the downtrend, this is likely a .9566/76 to .9462 day range.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9526 average. Stop on close under .9511 or intraday break of .9490. Day Trade: sell against .9566/76; cover at .9480/62; buy .9445 weekly level.

Published on  Wed, Jun 4 2008, 06:26 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Tue, Jun 3 2008, 06:15 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

There were no major out-of-bounds moves yesterday. Daily trend did fall from bullish to neutral in both $/JPY and $/Swiss, ending the short-term uptrends there for the time being and signaling rotation lower back to combined weekly/June supports at 102.54/50JPY and 1.025025CH – both places to cover existing shorts or set partial longs. Both Sterling and Euro stayed within their weekly breakouts, although Sterling is pressuring its downside boundary at 1.9660/55. A push below there points to 1.9490/80 for the week and 1.9120 for June. $/CAD leans bullish above .9935/32 and should continue to extend higher to weekly level at 1.0064.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The only shift yesterday was the loss of bullish daily trend – an event that should force a correction to weekly supports. Likely targets are either the weekly level at 103.56 or the combined weekly/June zone at 102.54/50. Under there is larger drop-off to 101.15. Main resistance is still the trio of longterm sell levels at 105.54 (June), 105.85 (Q2), 106.35 (Q3) and 106.82 (June). Weekly traffic is also at 105.26 and 106.59. Will add/hold shorts against 106.35/82; cover at 120.54/50.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily momentum fell from bullish to neutral Monday, signaling a correction lower. The setup today leans outright lower. Resistance is 104.78 and weekly/day zone at 105.26/32, plus the larger June/Q3 hurdles above there. There is no support until weekly target low at 103.56 and 102.97 day level. Expecting a 104.78 to 103.56 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 105.69 average. Add to 75% short at 106.35; 100% short at 106.82 – stop on close above. Cover shorts at 102.54/50 this week. Day Trade: sell 105.26/32; buy 103.56 and 102.97.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend remains neutral and the monthly trend just turned from bearish to neutral, both signs the upside correction remains ongoing. The setup for the week is evenly balanced. Resistance is first June level at 1.0540 and weekly hurdle at 1.0595. Above there is jump to larger sell levels at 1.0715 (Q3) to 1.0785 (June). Supports are 1.0290 and the June breakdown zone at 1.0250/25. Expecting a 1.0595 to 1.0250 week. Exit existing longs at 1.0540; reset longs at 1.0250/25.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum fell from bullish to neutral Monday, signaling a rotation lower to weekly supports. The setup today points lower to a test of the weekly supports at 1.0290 and 1.0250/25. First day level is 1.0235. Resistance is 1.0365, 1.0415/30 day zone and 1.0475. Expecting a 1.0290 to 1.0415 day range

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215/00. On weakness, reset to 50% long at 1.0250/25 – stop on close under 1.0220. On strength, exit the rest at 1.0540. Day Trade: sell 1.0415/30; cover at 1.0290; buy 1.0250/35.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Monday’s decline in Sterling managed to stay in bounds – though it is challenging the key support for the week at bullish-leaning weekly trend zone of 1.9660/55. If that gives way, then direction does start to resolve lower – first to weekly extreme at 1.9490/80, then much deeper June base at 1.9120. Resistance is still the string of weekly/June levels at 1.9765/90, 1.9840 and 1.9870/85 before opposite upside breakout to 2.0235. Will reset shorts on bounce to 1.9765/90 and 1.9870.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend is neutral, but the setup today points lower under the weekly trend zone at 1.9660/55. Getting under there sees drop to 1.9545 for the day and 1.9490/80 weekly extreme. Resistance is 1.9695, 1.9720/30 and June sell zone at 1.9765/90. Expecting a 1.9720 to 1.9545 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after covering the 1.9780 short at 1.9660/55 weekly trend Monday. Will reset to 50% short at 1.9765/90; 100% short at 1.9870/85 – stop on close above 1.9885. Day Trade: sell 1.9720/30; cover shorts at 1.9545.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Although yesterday’s decline did close under the level that turns weekly trend neutral this Friday at 1.5605, Euro did not break outside either of the key boundaries this week. The focus below is on the combined weekly/June zone at 1.5440/30 to 1.5400. Below there is drop-off to 1.5115. Resistance is June level at 1.5620/25 and weekly breakout at 1.5750, before an opposite jump to 1.5960. Strategy is to go with a break/close under 1.5400 for decline to 1.5115/00.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is still bearish, but with a neutral setup after Monday’s sideways range. Main resistance is 1.5590/1.5605 to the June zone at 1.5620/25. Above there is jump to 1.5715. Day support is 1.5515 an 1.5495, with the larger June/weekly breakdown area at 1.5440/30 to 1.5400. Expect a 1.5590 to 1.5440/30 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% short on close under 1.5400 (limit 1.5370). The target is 1.5115/00 this week. Day Trade: sell 1.5590/1.5605 and 1.5620/25; cover at 1.5440/30 and 1.5415/00.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Weekly momentum is still officially bearish, but can turn neutral with Friday close above .9941/44. The setup for the week is neutral overall, but with bullish-leaning daily trend (above .9935/32 today) pointing higher short-term. Weekly resistance is 1.0064 and 1.0124, with the June target and sell zone at 1.0160/66. Supports are the .9943/41 weekly trend zone, .9917 and .9830. Expecting a 1.0064 to .9830 day range. Strategy is to reset shorts at 1.0160/66.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with settle above .9935/32 today and the setup for the day leans higher. Supports are .9989, the daily trend zone at .9935/32 and .9889. There is no resistance until the combined weekly/day zone at 1.0064 to 1.0083. Expect a .9935/32 to 1.0064 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after being stopped from shorts on the break/close above .9944 weekly trend. Reset to 50% short at 1.0160/66 June/Q3 zone – stop on close above. Day Trade: buy .9935/32 daily trend zone; sell 1.0064/83.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Although both weekly and monthly trend are bullish here, the short-term picture has turned a little noisy with the downtrend on the day chart. Supports are weekly/June zone at .9515/11 (it held Monday), .9445 and main June uptrend base at .9404 to .9339. Resistance this week is .9565/66 and .9617, before upside gaps to .9757. Projecting a .9445 to .9617 weekly range. Hold new longs with tight stop against .9511; if stopped, will reset at .9404/.9339.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. This is a complex setup, with bearish daily trend (.9553/55) vying against the weekly/June support zone at .9515/11 today. The result is an overall neutral setup. An additional day support is at .9491, with weekly level at .9445. Additional resistance is .9566 and .9605/17. Expecting a .9491 to .9555/66 day range.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9526 average after adding longs at .9511 Monday. Stop on close under .9511 or intraday break of .9490. Day Trade: buy .9511 and .9491; sell .9605/17.

Published on  Tue, Jun 3 2008, 06:15 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Mon, Jun 2 2008, 07:04 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The only true trend/setup picture on the grid for June is in Aussie. It remains trend up on the monthly chart, with supports at .9511 and .9404 for the month and potentially open-ended Q3 setup above .9565. The trigger for accelerated upside is getting above .9762. Both $/JPY and $/Swiss ended monthly downtrends in May, signaling modest upside corrections to developing Q3 resistance (bearish momentum) at 106.35/82JPY and 1.0715/85CH. Both are sell zones. Sterling and Euro have breakout-type setups outside 1.9655 to 1.9870/85 in Cable and 1.9430 to 1.9620/25 in Euro. Weekly trend leans bullish in each.


JPY/USD

Monthly Outlook – Neutral. Monthly trend turned from bearish to neutral in May, signaling a correction that likely targets the developing Q3 downtrend at 106.35. The overall June setup is neutral. A quartet of resistance lies at 105.54 (June), 105.85 (Q2), 106.35 and 106.82 (June), before upside jumps to 112.14. Supports are 102.53/50 and 100.22, with Q3 base at 99.20. Projecting a 106.35 to 102.50 monthly range. Will sell against 106.35/82.
Weekly trend is going to stay neutral and is expected to range from 103.56 to 106.35/59 this week.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily momentum remains bullish to start the week, but with an overall neutral setup for Monday. Primary resistance is Q2/day zone at 105.85/92, then Q3 sell level at 106.35. Support is 105.13/01 daily trend and 104.65. Expecting a contained day from 105.13/01 to 105.85/92.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 105.69 average. Will add to 75% short at 106.35; 100% short at 106.82. Stop on close above 106.82. Will cover at 102.54/50 this month. Day Trade: sell 105.85/92; buy 105.13/01.


CHF/USD

Monthly Outlook – Neutral. Like $/JPY, monthly trend turned from bearish to neutral signaling an upside correction expected to target developing Q3 downtrend at 1.0715. The overall June setup is neutral. Initial resistance is 1.0540, with jump to 1.0715 and 1.0785 above there. Supports are 1.0250/35 trend, then drop to .9985 and fixed Q3 support at .9900. Based on the trend shift, projecting a 1.0250/35 to 1.0715/85 month. Will sell 1.0715/85.
Weekly trend can turn bearish with Friday settle under 1.0405, but has an overall neutral setup from 1.0250/25 to 1.0540/95 this week.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend starts Monday officially trend up, but with a neutral to negative setup. The initial focus is on daily trend at 1.0425/35. Under there is drop to 1.0325/05 and first weekly level at 1.0290. Resistance is 1.0465 and 1.0525/40. Expecting a 1.0325 to 1.0465 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215. Exit at 1.0525/40. On weakness, reset to 50% long at 1.0250/25 this week – stop on close under 1.0220. For June, wait to move 50% short at 1.0715; 100% short at 1.0785 – stop on close above.


Pound

Monthly Outlook – Neutral. Sterling has a difficult, breakouttype setup for June. The key boundaries are 1.9870 Q3 level above and 1.9760 below. Under there sees minimum intramonth drop to 1.9120, with yearly uptrend deeper at 1.8930. Conversely, above 1.9870 sees jump to 2.0220 and 2.0310. Note, however, that weekly trend leans bullish above 1.9660/50 to start the month. Based on that bullish weekly bias, projecting a 1.9660 to 2.0220 monthly range.
The weekly situation is neutral from 1.9660/50 trend to Q3/weekly breakout at 1.9870/85 – with extension risk outside either end.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is neutral, with no clear lean either way Monday. Resistance is 1.9850 day level and the key June/weekly breakout at 1.9870/85. Supports are 1.9760, 1.9720 and 1.9690. Projecting a 1.9720 to 1.9850 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.9780. Stop and reverse 50% long on close above 1.9885 (limit on new longs is 1.9910). Cover existing short at 1.9660/55 this week. June Trade: go with action above 1.9870/85 or below 1.9660/55.


European Currency Unit

Monthly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Like Cable, Euro is faced with a breakout-type setup for June. The initial breakout parameters are 1.5430 support and 1.5620/25 monthly trend. Above there turns bullish and projects to 1.5960 and 1.6125. Conversely, under 1.5430 sees minimum drop to developing Q3 uptrend/June extreme at 1.5100/1.5065. Weekly trend did manage to turn trend up last week. Based on the background trend bias (monthly and weekly), projecting a 1.5430 to 1.5960 month. Early keys are 1.5430 vs 1.5620/25.
Weekly trend did turn (barely) bullish last week, but faces a neutral range setup from 1.5440/00 to 1.5750.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Despite Friday’s late bounce, daily trend remains bearish with a neutral to negative setup. Resistance is 1.5585 trend, 1.5605 and key June zone at 1.5620/25. Supports are 1.5465 and combined weekly/daily/June zone at 1.5440/30. Projecting a 1.5585/1.5605 high and 1.5465 day low.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 1.5440/30 – stop on close under 1.5400 this week. For June, can go with action under 1.5440/00 (to 1.5120) or above 1.5620/25 (to 1.5960).


CAD/USD

Monthly Outlook – Neutral. Monthly trend stayed neutral in May, failing to turn bullish. The setup for June is neutral to bearish. Resistance is 1.0074, then the key monthly/Q3 sell zone at 1.0160/66, before jump to 1.0330. Initial support is .9912, with drop below there to Q2 target at .9700 and June level at .9647. Weekly trend remains negative to start the month. Projecting a 1.0160/66 to .9700/.9647 June range. Will sell 1.0160/66.
Weekly trend is still bearish under .9941/43, but with neutral setup from .9830 to 1.0062/74.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral, with a tricky battle today between initial weekly levels at .9917/12 and .9943 trend. Above there sees intraday gap to 1.0021; below combined .9918/07 zone sees drop to .9843. Expecting a .9918/14 to 1.0021 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at .9918 average after adding shorts at .9924 on Friday. Stop on close above .9944 today. The target is .9700 Q2 level. June trade: sell strength to 1.0160/66; cover shorts at .9700 to .9647 on weakness.


Australian Dollar

Monthly Outlook – Bullish. Monthly trend remains bullish in Aussie, and the larger risk for the month is up. The main resistance is .9762, with gap thru there to 1.0265. Note the developing Q3 setup turns open-ended higher above .9565. Supports for the month are tiered at .9511, .9404 and bullish trend at .9339, before drop to Q3 trend at .9107. Projecting a by-thebook month from .9404 to .9762 – but with extension risk above .9762.
Weekly trend is bullish, but starts out with neutral setup from .9445 to .9617.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend leans bearish with settle under .9574/76 today, but is neutralized by the new weekly/June support at .9515/11. Day supports are also at .9521 and .9496, before drop to .9404. Main resistance is the .9574/76 trend and weekly level at .9617. Expect a .9521/11 to .9576 day.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at .9543/41 from last week. Add to 50% long at .9511 – stop on close under .9511. The target is .9762 June level.

Published on  Mon, Jun 2 2008, 07:04 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Fri, May 30 2008, 06:23 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The USD rally made good contact with the combined June/Q2/Q3 sell zone from 105.54 to 106.35JPY yesterday. With the bullish turn in daily trend, a further push into that area is expected today. As long as 106.35 holds, the intermediate setup is neutral back to 102.56/12. $/Swiss is also pushing higher, with its June level at 1.0540 (exit longs) and larger weekly/Q3 zone at 1.0690/1.0715 (set shorts). At the same time, the USD remains negative vs CAD and Aussie, with weekly trend still bearish and openended developing setups under .9911/24CAD and above .9555/51 to .9511 in Aussie.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/JPY has rallied right into the primary sell zone of May level at 105.54, Q2 level at 105.85 and developing Q3 level at 106.35. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral (corrective) and long as the USD stays under that area, the overall setup is balanced as well. Supports for next week are forming at 103.56, 102.56 and the developing June uptrend at 102.12. Daily trend is still bullish above 104.62. Strategy remains to add/hold shorts against 106.35 for minimum target of 102.56/12.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is bullish, but with overall neutral setup due to the longer-term levels at 105.54, 105.85 and 106.35. First day resistance is 106.44. Main day support is the 104.66/62 daily uptrend with 103.90 and weekly level at 103.56 below. Expecting a two-way day from 105.85 to 105.66/62. A stretch to 106.35/44 is possible

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 105.69 average after selling 105.54 and 105.85 Thursday. Add to 100% short at 106.35 – stop on close above 106.40. The minimum target is 102.56 to 102.12.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Still no big change to this point. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral (corrective), with a balanced setup forming for June. The short-term rotation higher now targets the fixed June level at 1.0540 or higher weekly/Q3 zone at 1.0690/1.0715. Supports for next week are 1.0305, 1.0225 and developing monthly trend at 1.0210/05. Daily trend is also bullish and intersects at 1.0370 today. Strategy is to exit the remainder of longs at 1.0540; will wait to sell 1.0690/1.0715.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend turned bullish yesterday, but upside is partially neutralized today by the fixed June level at 1.0540. Above there is intraday gap to 1.0630. Supports are 1.0470, daily trend zone at 1.0375/70 and 1.0310/05. Expecting a two-way range from 1.0375/70 to 1.0540.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215/00 after exiting ½ at 1.0500 yesterday. On weakness, reset to 50% long at 1.0210/05 – stop on close under 1.0200. On strength, exit the rest at 1.0540; will move 50% short at 1.0690/1.0715.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Still not any conclusive directional shift here - though the market has stayed below the key developing June levels at 1.9755 to 1.9790 to 1.9870. An additional fixed weekly level at 1.9885 reinforces the ceiling on the market. As long as that holds, the overall setup is neutral. Above 1.9870/85 is jump to 2.0235. Support for next week is 1.9655/45, then drops to 1.9490. Hold existing shorts against 1.9885; cover part at 1.9655/45; hold rest.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral Thursday, leaving an overall balanced setup. Resistance is 1.9790/95, 1.9860 and the key June/weekly zone at 1.9870/85. Supports are 1.9700 and weekly/day zone at 1.9655/35. Expecting a 1.9860 to 1.9655/35 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.9780 average. Stop on close above 1.9870. Cover ½ at 1.9655/35; hold the rest. Day Trade: sell 1.9860/85; cover day shorts/buy 1.9655/35.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Euro has performed poorly this week, with the retreat behind both the June level at 1.5620 and the level that turns weekly trend bullish at 1.5555 removing any positive bias. The overall setup now looks neutral. Resistance is June level at 1.5620, developing weekly level at 1.5740, then jumps to 1.5995. Supports are combined June/weekly zone at 1.5395/80, before drop to 1.5165. Expecting 1.5395/80 to 1.5740 range action over the next week. No new position strategy for now.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend turned bearish Thursday, and the setup today points lower. Resistance is 1.5570, the fixed June level at 1.5620 and daily trend zone at 1.5635/50. There is no support until the combined June/weekly zone at 1.5395/80 and first day level at 1.5370. Expecting a 1.5570 down to 1.5395 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after stopping the longs on close under 1.5555. No new position trade for now. Day trade: be better seller of strength to 1.5570 and 1.5620/50. Cover day shorts at 1.5395/80/70.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Weekly trend is going to stay bearish and both the developing weekly and June setups are open lower at this point. The key developing resistance levels are clustered at .9905 (June) to .9911/24 (weekly), with developing weekly trend at .9946. Above there finds minimum relief to June/weekly zone at 1.0048/69. The closest fixed support is the Q2 level at .9700. Strategy is to add shorts at .9924 against .9946 for trade to .9700 target.

Daily Comments – Neutral. The day setup is a pick‘em type. But the fact daily trend fell neutral Thursday and the weekly setup is open-ended under .9905/11 points lower. Main resistance is the weekly levels at .9904/11 and .9924/46. Support under .9886 drops to .9760 minimum. Based on the weekly bias, projecting a .9905/11 to .9760 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% short at .9904/12 from Thursday. Add to 50% short at .9924 – stop on close above .9946 . The target is .9700. Day Trade: sell against .9911 and .9924; cover at .9760.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Aussie is still dancing around its Q2 breakout level at .9594. But weekly trend is going to stay bullish and both the developing weekly chart (above .9555/51) and developing June (above .9511) setups are open higher. Both those areas are the main support and present the best structure to trade against. Under there is drop to .9441 for next week. Resistance is forming at .9617, then jumps to .9757 for next week. Will add/hold longs against .9511.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is still neutral, with a widespread setup resulting from Thursday’s outside range. But additional weekly supports at .9555/51 and .9511 make the market better bid. Day supports match up at .9549 and .9504. Resistance today is .9617 and day zone at .9649/53. Expecting a .9511 to .9649 day range.

Position Strategy: Current 25% long at .9543/41 from Thursday. Add to 75% long at .9511 – stop on close under .9500. No upside target for now. Day Trade: buy .9555/49 and .9511/04; exit day longs at .9617 and .9649.

Published on  Fri, May 30 2008, 06:23 GMT

Daily Technical Outlook

Thu, May 29 2008, 06:02 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

$/JPY and $/Swiss continue to rotate between competing June boundaries forming at 102.12 to 105.54/106.33JPY and 1.0210/05 to 1.0540CH. Both sides are tradable, with the combined June/Q2/Q3 traffic at 105.54/106.33JPY the single best trading zone. $/CAD and Aussie are unclear in terms of short-term bias, but increasingly negative for the USD longer-term. Weekly, June and Q3 setups are all open-ended higher above .9617/15 to .9511 in Aussie, while $/CAD points lower under its weekly/June traffic at .9704/11 to .9926/41. Sterling and Euro are indecisive at this point between tight June/weekly boundaries.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/JPY continues to rotate between widespread June levels, with no clear directional bias at this point. Main resistance is the June level at 105.54, with Q2 level at 105.85 and developing Q3 ceiling at 106.35 reinforcing the ceiling above there. Supports are devolving June trend at 102.12, before larger drop to 99.56/25. Weekly levels are forming inside at 102.80 and 105.05. No change in strategy: will scale into shorts from 105.54 to 106.33 on strength; buy against 102.12 on weakness.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with a settle above 103.96 today. The setup points modestly higher toward the June/Q2 sell zone at 105.54 to 105.85. That is first resistance, with daily/Q3 sell area at 106.19/35 above there. Supports are 104.02/013.96 trend and 103.47. Projecting a 104.02 to 105.54 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, move 25% short at 105.54; 50% short at 105.85; 100% short at 106.35 – stop on close above 106.40. On weakness, move 50% long at 102.12 developing June uptrend – stop on close under 102.00.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. No major changes in the intermediate picture here, with weekly trend still neutral (i.e., corrective/range trade) and the setup largely balanced between competing June boundaries at 1.0210/05 trend and 1.0540 resistance. There are developing weekly supports at 1.0350 and 1.0270 inside there. Above 1.0540 sees jump to 1.0690 for next week and to 1.0715 for June. Under 1.0210/05 sees drop to .9900. Strategy is to hold longs against 1.0200; exit at 1.0540.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend is positioned to turn bullish with settle above 1.0300 today. The setup points modestly higher, with nothing above until 1.0500 and June level at 1.0540. Supports are 1.0340, 1.0300 daily trend and developing weekly level at 1.0270. Projecting a 1.0300 to 1.0500 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% long at 1.0215/00. Stop longs on close under 1.0175 May level for now (will raise to 1.0200 for Friday). Exit ½ at 1.0500 today; rest at 1.0540. Day Trade: buy 1.0300 and 1.0270; sell 1.0500 and 1.0540.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. There has been very little directional resolution so far this week as Sterling has stayed largely within the developing June boundaries at 1.9755 to 1.9790 to 1.9870. Those three levels will remain very much in play into early June. In addition, developing weekly boundaries are forming at 1.9665/25 below and 1.9955 above. Not a lot to do here at current levels. Will hold existing shorts against 1.9870 for now; cover a portion on weakness to 1.9665/25.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral from Tuesday, and the setup today is neutral and evenly spread to both sides. Resistance is daily/June zone at 1.9865/70 and fixed weekly level at 1.9955. Supports are 1.9755, 1.9725 and 1.9690. Looking for a 1.9725 to 1.9865/70 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.9780 average. Stop on close above 1.9870. Cover ½ at 1.9645/25; hold rest. Day Trade: sell 1.9865/70; buy 1.9725 and 1.9690.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. Weekly trend still leans bullish with settle above 1.5555 this Friday. But the developing weekly and June setups have turned a little wobbly with the lack of upside push this week. The pivotal zone area is 1.5620/1.5555 to developing weekly level at 1.5730. Above there is bullish and points to 1.6035 for the week and 1.6205 for June. Conversely, a break/close under 1.5555 sees minimum drop to 1.5395 for next month. Hold existing longs against 1.5555 for today; will raise that to 1.5620 for Friday.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend leans bearish with settle under 1.5725 today, and the day shapes up as a battle between there and bullish-leaning weekly trend at 1.5555. A day support is also at 1.5535, before drop to 1.5405. Resistance is 1.5685, 1.5705 and 1.5725/30. Projecting a 1.5555 to 1.5730 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% long at 1.5620/10 from Wednesday. Stop on close under 1.5555 today; raise to 1.5620 for Friday. Target is 1.6205. Day Trade: buy 1.5555/35; sell 1.5725/30.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Bearish weekly trend at 1.0002 this week is holding, and both the developing June and weekly setups point sharply lower under .9904/11 to .9926/41. Any weekly settle under there leaves downside open to .9721 for next week and to .9700 for rest of Q2. Resistance above there is 1.0021, then 1.0160. Oddly, daily trend turned bullish yesterday, but intersects at .9912 today. Will scale into partial shorts at .9904/11 to .9926/41. Target is still .9700.

Daily Comments – Neutral. An awkward day setup, where daily trend turned officially bullish, but the soft close near the lows leaves a neutral to bearish setup. Resistance is .9909/12, .9926 and .9967. Additional weekly sell levels are .9904/11 and .9926/41. Supports are .9868 and .9831. Expecting a .9926 to .9868 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 25% short at .9904/12; 50% short at .9926/41 – stop on close above .9941 today. The target is .9721/00. Day Trade: sell .9926/41; cover at .9868.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. The longer Aussie can stick above the Q2 breakout zone at .9594/.9614, the more likely upside extension becomes. As it now stands, developing weekly (above .9617/15), June (above .9511) and Q3 (above .9565) setups are all open-ended higher. Bullish weekly trend will also rise to .9543/41 for next week. Staying above .9617/15 leaves only an expiring weekly zone at .9731/50. Will set partial longs against .9543/41 and the .9511 June level.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral from Tuesday’s downturn, but with a neutral to slightly positive setup today. Supports are a mix of daily and longer-term levels at .9617/15, .9579/65 and .9543/41 buy zone. Resistance is .9642 and .9669. Based on the short-term absence of trend, projecting a .9543 to .9642 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat. Move 25% long at .9543/41; 75% long at .9511 – stop on close under .9500. No upside target for now. Day Trade: buy .9543/41 and .9511; exit day longs at .9642 and .9669.

Published on  Thu, May 29 2008, 06:02 GMT