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(NO) Daily Technical Outlook

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Daily Technical Outlook

Fri, Jun 20 2008, 04:33 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The focus right now is on the short-term corrections lower in the USD that are headed for either weekly uptrend or developing July supports. The primary candidates are $/JPY backing up to its weekly uptrend at 106.41/40 (with July base at 105.24/104.91); $/CAD approaching its July/weekly base at 1.0042/20; and Aussie working higher to its July sell level at .9570. All are places to structure US$ longs against. Sterling continues its difficult price action. Yesterday’s settle above the July/Q3 trio at 1.9610 to 1.9690 leaves a more neutral situation - but with another round of longer-term resistance to come at 1.9800/70 (weekly/Q3).


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend is expected to stay bullish, but with a neutral to bullish setup forming for next week. Supports for the week are developing trend at 106.41/40, second weekly level at 106.00 and the combined July base at 105.24 to 104.91. The July setup is open-ended above there. Resistance for the week is developing at 108.78, then 110.14. Given both the weekly and July bias, strategy is to set partial longs against 106.41/40 trend; if stopped will reset at 105.24/104.91.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral from Wednesday’s downtrend. There is no lean either way today. The setup is neutral. Supports are 107.80/67, 107.05 and the weekly trend buy level at 106.41/40. Day resistance is 108.39/47, but with jump above there to first fixed weekly level at 110.14. Projecting a 107.67 to 108.47 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 106.41/40 – stop on close under 106.00 today. If stopped, will reset at 105.24/104.91 July zone. Day Trade: buy 107.80/67 and 107.05; exit day longs at 108.39/47.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The weekly picture in $/Swiss remains neutral, with lots of noise to both sides. The larger boundaries on the market come from the developing July/Q3 parameters. Above the market, that is the July level at 1.0620 and Q3 downtrend at 1.0715. Below the market, it is July zone at 1.0120 to 1.0075. Weekly resistance at 1.0485/1.0505 and supports at 1.0370 and 1.0220 lie within there, but neither are actionable levels. Next trade is to wait to set shorts against 1.0715.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend stayed neutral with Thursday’s rally, failing to turn bearish. The outside range – and the presence of weekly resistance at 1.0484/1.0505 – makes for a neutral setup as well. Resistance is 1.0480/1.0505, then 1.0595 and July level at 1.0620. Supports are 1.0345 and 1.0275. Expecting a two-way day from 1.0505 high to 1.0345 low.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Will move 50% short at 1.0715 – stop on close above 1.0785 for now Day Trade: buy against 1.0345; exit day longs at 1.0485/1.0505.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. This week’s rally back above the trio of July/Q3 levels at 1.9610, 1.9665 and 1.9690 puts the situation back to neutral here – but does not yet turn it bullish. The setup for next week looks neutral, with more upside resistance to come at 1.9800 for the week and developing Q3 hurdle of 1.9870. Thru there does turn more positive, with minimum upside to 2.0095 for the week. Supports – besides the still-in-play Q3/July trio – are 1.9505 and 1.9420. Expecting 1.9800/70 to 1.9420 trade next week. Will reset partial shorts at 1.9800/70.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is bullish, but offset by further weekly and longer-term resistance at 1.9800 and 1.9870 today. Supports today are 1.9675, 1.9640 and the daily uptrend at 1.9610. Expecting a 1.9640 to 1.9800 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after stopping the 1.9665 short on the close above 1.9700. Will reset to 25% short at 1.9800; 50% short at 1.9870 – stop on close above 1.9870. Day Trade: buy 1.9640/10; sell 1.9800 and 1.9870.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral for next week, but with a widespread and potentially unstable setup for next week. The bigger risk appears to be to the upside. The main level in play for the weekly close is 1.5490. Any settle above there leaves no resistance until 1.5870/80, then July level at 1.6085. Supports under 1.5490 are not nearly as deep, with weekly levels at 1.5390 and 1.5325/10, then drop to Q3 trend at 1.5115. Expecting a 1.5325 to 1.5870/80 range action. No new position trade for now.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily momentum stayed marginally bullish Thursday. But the widespread action Thursday leaves a neutral setup today. Resistance is 1.5555 and 1.5630. Supports are 1.5470, 1.5435 and weekly level at 1.5390. This does not look like a major directional setup - expecting a 1.5435 to 1.5555 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, will wait to move 50% long at 1.5115/00 – stop on close under 1.5100. Day Trade: buy weakness to 1.5435 and 1.5390; exit day longs at 1.5555 and 1.5630.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend should stays bullish with settle above 1.0091 today. But the overall setup for next week looks neutral between competing weekly/July boundaries to both sides. Supports are 1.0078 and the developing July/weekly zone at 1.0042/20. Under there is drop to .9925. Resistance is combined weekly/July/Q3 area at 1.0255/68/75, then the expiring June level at 1.0332. Expecting a 1.0042/20 to 1.0255/75 range action for now. Will set longs on weakness against 1.0042/20.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend remains bearish and $/CAD is still working in a correction lower. The day setup points lower. Resistance is 1.0160/61, daily trend at 1.0175 and 1.0214. Closest support is weekly/day zone at 1.0078/60 and the July/weekly buy zone at 1.0042/20. Expect a 1.0175 to 1.0078 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move to 50% long at 1.0042/20 – stop on close under 1.0010. Day Trade: sell against daily trend at 1.0160/61 to 1.0175; cover day shorts at 1.0078/60; buy 1.0042/20.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Aussie has done a great job holding above bullish monthly trend at .9339 thru the week, and should stay neutral for the week ahead. But there is more resistance approaching from above. The setup for next week looks balanced. Resistance is forming at the July level of .9570 and weekly level of .9648. Supports for the week are down at .9387/81 and .9339 June trend. In between is a weekly pivot at .9481. Strategy is to exit the remainder of longs and reverse into partial shorts against .9570.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Today’s trade is a nice balance between bullish daily trend at .9470/67 to .9452 and the key July resistance level at .9570 (with daily level at .9558 ahead of there). Projecting daily trade between there from .9470/67 to .9558/70 high.

Position Strategy: Current 25% long at .9370 average after exiting ½ at .9488/93 Thursday. Exit the rest and reverse to 50% short at .9558/70 July level. Stop new shorts on close above .9570.

Published on  Fri, Jun 20 2008, 04:33 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Thu, Jun 19 2008, 06:09 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Nothing major in the USD right now, as short-term action – the loss of bullish trend in $/JPY and bearish turns in daily trend vs. CAD and Aussie – argue for a correction lower. In $/JPY, the earliest target for a downtrend is developing weekly uptrend at 106.41/40, with the larger magnitude buy zone at 105.24/104.91 July base. $/CAD is also working lower toward its July/weekly zone at 1.0042/20; Aussie to either developing weekly trend at .9493 or July hurdle at .9570 – both places to exit out of current longs. Sterling remains contained for now, but with a negative backdrop below July/Q3 trio from 1.9610 to 1.9665/90.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend turned bearish yesterday, confirming the short-term correction lower. Although weekly momentum is still bullish above 1.0091/70, it will be shifting higher for next week – removing the immediate target. The result is a slight adjustment lower of the main support base to July/developing weekly zone at 1.0042/20. At this point, resistance for next week is forming at 1.0194 trend, 1.0238 and 1.0275. Strategy is to set longs on weakness to 1.0042/20.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend is bearish and the setup for the day tilts lower. Resistance is the daily trend zone at 1.0189/92 to 1.0205, with developing weekly/day zone at 1.0238/46 above there. Initial support is 1.0161, then drop to expiring weekly uptrend/day extreme at 1.0091/81. Expecting a 1.0205 to 1.0091 day.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Two shifts happening in opposite directions at the same time. Short-term, Wednesday’s loss of bullish daily trend signals a correction lower. At the same time, bullish weekly trend is going to move higher from 105.60/39 this week to developing level at 106.41/40 for next. That is the first target for any correction lower, with the larger July base at 105.24 to 104.91 below there. Resistance for next week is high at 110.52. The aggressive buy is to set longs at 106.41/40.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral with the downtrade Wednesday. The resulting setup is evenly balanced. Resistance today is 108.05, 108.39/49 and 109.29. Supports are immediate day level at 107.69, 107.05, then the developing weekly uptrend (buy zone) at 106.41/40. Expecting a 108.39 to 107.05 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 106.41/40 – stop on close under 106.40. If stopped, will reset at 105.24/104.91 July zone. Day Trade: buy 107.05 and 106.41; sell against 108.39/49.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/Swiss is still neutral in terms of weekly trend and setup, but with bearish-leaning daily trend applying pressure. Support is now the expiring June zone at 1.0250/25, with developing weekly base at 1.0175 (to go with this week’s 1.0185 level). Resistance for next week is initial level at 1.0380, then weekly/June zone at 1.0520/40 and 1.0565. Not a lot new in terms of strategy – will wait to sell against 1.0715 Q3 level. But the nearterm pressure likely forces test lower to 1.0250/1.0175 first.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend leans bearish with settle under 1.0420 today. The setup leans lower as well. Resistance is daily;/weekly zone at 1.0370/80, 1.0420 and 1.0480/85. An initial day support is at 1.0335, but with the more likely target at day extreme/June zone of 1.0255/35. Expect a 1.0420 to 1.0255 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Wait to move 33% short at 1.0715; 67% short at 1.0785 – stop on close above 1.0800 Day Trade: sell against bearish-leaning daily trend at 1.0420; cover at 1.0255/50.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Sterling continues to have a devil of a time trying to breakout on the downside. Still, the developing July and Q3 setups are both open-ended lower, with the developing weekly setup looking no better than neutral. Main resistance is the trio of July/Q3 levels at 1.0610, 1.9655/65 and 1.9690, with additional weekly level at 1.9755 for next week. Main support is a developing weekly level at 1.9460, before drop to expiring June level at 1.9120. Hold existing shorts against 1.9700.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is officially bullish, but with an overall neutral setup. The main focus above is the trio of Q3/July levels at 1.9610, 1.9665 and 1.9690. Day resistance is at 1.9680. Supports are 1.9520 and combined daily/weekly breakdown level at 1.9480/60. Expecting a 1.9665 to 1.9460 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 100% short at 1.9665. Stop on close above 1.9700. Cover ½ at 1.9120. Day Trade: sell against 1.9665 and 1.9680/90; cover day shorts at 1.9460/80.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral in Euro, but the setup remains an awkward trade. Supports are forming at 1.5390 and 1.5255, then drops to the Q3 trend zone at 1.5115/00. Upside is a little more difficult to gauge. Straight ahead is developing weekly trend at 1.5535 and current weekly level at 1.5585. Above there, however, sees gap to 1.5800 for next week and 1.5960 monthly level. This is a tough trade to call – for now nothing to do until buying against Q3 uptrend at 1.5115/00.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend did manage to turn bullish Wednesday, but faces an awkward neutral setup with weekly levels at 1.5535 (developing) and 1.5585 (current) above. Day extreme is at 1.5620. Supports are daily trend level at 1.5490, 1.5440 and 1.5370. Looking for a 1.5490 to 1.5585 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, will wait to move 50% long at 1.5115/00 – stop on close under 1.5100. Day Trade: buy weakness against 1.5490 daily trend; sell 1.5585 weekly level and 1.5620 day extreme.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend turned bearish yesterday, confirming the short-term correction lower. Although weekly momentum is still bullish above 1.0091/70, it will be shifting higher for next week – removing the immediate target. The result is a slight adjustment lower of the main support base to July/developing weekly zone at 1.0042/20. At this point, resistance for next week is forming at 1.0194 trend, 1.0238 and 1.0275. Strategy is to set longs on weakness to 1.0042/20.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend is bearish and the setup for the day tilts lower. Resistance is the daily trend zone at 1.0189/92 to 1.0205, with developing weekly/day zone at 1.0238/46 above there. Initial support is 1.0161, then drop to expiring weekly uptrend/day extreme at 1.0091/81. Expecting a 1.0205 to 1.0091 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move to 50% long at 1.0042/20 – stop on close under 1.0000. Day Trade: sell against 1.0205 and 1.0238/46; buy weakness to 1.0191/81.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. The intermediate situation remains neutral here as long as the monthly uptrend at .9339 holds. Next week’s setup is shaping up as a battle between there and what should be bearish-leaning weekly trend at .9493. A developing July hurdle is also forming at .9570. Support for next week is primarily the .9339 monthly trend, but with fixed weekly level at .9292 under there. Will exit part of the existing long at .9493; the rest at .9570.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend did turn bullish yesterday, leaving a neutral to bullish setup. Supports are .9445, the daily trend zone at .9422/15 and day extreme at .9374. Main resistance is combined daily level and developing weekly trend at .9488/93, with existing weekly level at .9534 above there. Looking for an up day from .9422 to .9488/93 day.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9370 average. Stop on close under .9339 or intraday break of .9310. Exit ½ at .9488/93 today; exit the rest at .9570 July level. Day Trade: buy daily trend at .9422/15; sell .9488/93.

Published on  Thu, Jun 19 2008, 06:09 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Wed, Jun 18 2008, 06:28 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Still a wild trade in Sterling – but with a negative backdrop as long as the combined weekly/July/Q3 resistance at 1.9655/65 to 1.9690 holds. Today’s follow-up to the Mon/Tues back and forth action is expected to be neutral. The main breakdown level for the week is still 1.9355. Elsewhere, daily trend in $/CAD leans bearish under 1.0217/32 today, likely forcing a correction to the larger weekly uptrend/July buy zone at 1.0091/70 to 1.0042. Aussie is still trying to rebound off its monthly uptrend at .9339. Day trend leans bullish above .9398 today; weekly target is still .9534. Euro is seen from 1.5445/25 to 1.5575/85..


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish. Other than the daily uptrend stalling to a near standstill, there has not been a lot of change so far this week. Trend is bullish and the intermediate setup still points higher. Supports are 106.64 weekly level, 105.60/39 weekly uptrend and developing July base at 105.27/24. There is no resistance for the week until 110.32, with expiring June level at 112.14. Strategy remains focused on buying weakness, starting at 106.64 and extending to 105.60/24.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is still officially bullish, but effectively neutral in terms of setup. Resistance today is 108.16, 108.55 and 108.83. Supports are 107.75, 107.23 and the combined weekly buy level/day extreme at 106.64/56. The uptrend ends with settle under 108.01. Expecting a 108.55 to 107.23 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 33% long at 106.64; 75% long at 105.60; 100% long at 105.27/24 – stop on close under 105.00. The target is 112.14 June level. Day Trade: buy 107.23 and 106.64/56; exit day longs at 108.55 and 108.83.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/Swiss continues to wander in a holding pattern, with no directional inclination at the moment. What little bias there was in terms of bullish daily trend, was lost yesterday with the downturn. The setup for the week remains balanced. Support are 1.0365, June zone at 1.0250/25 and 1.0185. Resistance is combined weekly/June area at 1.0540/45 to 1.0580, then skips to the 1.0715 Q3 sell level. Nothing to do at current levels. Strategy is to wait to sell 1.0715/85.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral with Tuesday’s backslide. That signals a correction lower toward weekly supports. The day setup is neutral once again, however. Supports are combined daily/weekly zone at 1.0370/65 and 1.0250/30. Resistance is 1.0430/40, 1.0510 and the weekly/day area at 1.0540/45. Expecting a 1.0510 to 1.0370/65 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Wait to move 33% short at 1.0715; 67% short at 1.0785 – stop on close above 1.0800 Day Trade: sell 1.0510 and 1.0540/45; cover day shorts at 1.0370/65; buy 1.0250/30.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Sterling continues to trade all over the map – but importantly, is staying under the key combination of weekly/July/Q3 traffic from 1.9655/65 to 1.9690. As long as it does so, the long-term setups are open-ended lower and the weekly setup is neutral to bearish. Lone nearby support is 1.9355 for the week, before drop to 1.9120. Resistance above 1.9690 jumps to 1.9835/70. Hold existing shorts against 1.9700 to cover at 1.9120.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral here with no lean either way today. But the wide ranges so far this week – up Monday; down Tuesday – leave an equally widespread setup. Day resistance is 1.9620 and 1.9715. Supports are 1.9390, weekly breakdown level at 1.9355 and 1.9255. Expecting a 1.9620 to 1.9390 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 100% short at 1.9665. Stop on close above 1.9700. Cover ½ at 1.9120. Day Trade: sell against 1.9620 and 19655/65; cover day shorts at 1.9390 and 1.9355.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Both weekly trend and setup remains neutral here, though with bullish-leaning daily trend edging Euro higher toward weekly resistance. The only nearby weekly hurdle is 1.5585, with gap thru there to 1.5865 and weekly/June zone at 1.5910/60. Supports for the week are still well back at 1.5320 and 1.5240, then the developing Q3 trend at 1.5115/00. Daily momentum can turn bullish above 1.5445 today. No hurry to position this market. Will wait to buy 1.5115/00 for now.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with settle above 1.5445/25 today, prompting what should be a run at the main weekly hurdle of 1.5585. The first day resistance of 1.5575 happens to intersect at that same area. Above there is jump to 1.5755. Supports are 1.5445/25 trend, 1.5395 and 1.5340. Expecting a 1.5445/25 to 1.5575/85 range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, will wait to move 50% long at 1.5115/00 – stop on close under 1.5100. Day Trade: buy weakness against the 1.5445/25 trend zone; sell daily/weekly zone at 1.5575/85.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend is still bullish, with solid weekly/July supports at 1.0091/70 to 1.0042. That said, the bearish lean in daily trend today (under 1.0232) suggests a short-term correction lower to base supports. The initial Q3 level at 1.0169 was hit Tuesday. The 1.0091/70 and 1.0042 levels are places to set longs against. Resistance for the week – other than daily trend – remain high at 1.0332 and 1.0362. Strategy is to buy 1.0091/70 and 1.0042. Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend leans bearish today with settle under 1.0232, and the day setup does point modestly lower. Resistance is 1.0195 and 1.0217/32 trend zone, before skipping to 1.0293. Day support is 1.0133, then the first weekly buy area at 1.0091/70. Expecting a 1.0217 to 1.0133 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after cover the 1.0323/32 short at the 1.0169 Q3 level on Tuesday. On further weakness, move to 50% long at 1.0091/70; 100% long at 1.0042 – stop on close under 1.0020. Day Trade: sell 1.0217/32; buy 1.0091/70.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Aussie continues to try to mount a rally off the bullish monthly trend level of .9339. The overall setup this week is neutral as long as that holds, with the bullish-lean in daily trend above .9398 today pointing higher in the short-term. The primary weekly resistance target for the week is .9534, with jump to .9651 above there. Other than .9339, support drops away to .9175 for the week and .9107 Q3 trend level. Strategy is to hold existing longs against .9339 for .9534 target.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with settle above .9398 today. The setup is neutral to modestly bullish. Supports are .9413/09 to .9390, then the key monthly breakdown zone at .9339. Day resistance is .9481, with the weekly target at .9534 above there. Projecting a .9413/09 to .9481 day range.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9370 average. Stop on close under .9339 or intraday break of .9310. Target to exit is .9534 this week. Day Trade: buy .9413/09 to .9398; exit day longs at .9481; sell .9534/47.

Published on  Wed, Jun 18 2008, 06:28 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Tue, Jun 17 2008, 06:50 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Of the three focus markets for the week - $/JPY, Sterling and $/CAD – Sterling was the main mover yesterday. Despite another one of those big boomerang bounces, it remains below the combined Q3/weekly/July resistance at 1.9655/65 to 1.9690. That is the focus for shorts right here, while the breakdown level for the week remains 1.9355. $/CAD also failed to turn daily trend bullish, suggesting a push lower toward its long-term support base from Q3 level at 1.0169 (cover shorts) to weekly uptrend/July zone at 1.0091/42 (set longs). Aussie remains neutral to bullish as long as it holds above monthly trend at .9339.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish. No major change on the weekly picture yesterday – although the daily uptrend is starting to tire and is in danger of forcing a short-term correction lower. Supports for the week are the mix of weekly levels – where trend is bullish – and developing July/Q3 supports. Those supports start at 106.64, then extend to weekly trend/July zone at 105.60/39, plus Q3/July zone at 105.27/24. There is no resistance this week until 110.32. Strategy is to scale into longs on weakness to 106.64 and 105.60/24.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is still officially bullish, but slowing. It can turn neutral with settle under 107.96/93 today and the setup for the day is neutral. Resistance is 108.20, 108.78 and 109.54. (There is no weekly level until 110.32.) Supports are 107.96/93 trend, then 107.44/29. Projecting a 108.78 to 107.44 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 33% long at 106.64; 75% long at 105.60; 100% long at 105.27/24 – stop on close under 105.00. The target is 112.14 June level. Day Trade: buy 107.44/29; sell 108.78.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/Swiss remains in a holding pattern, with no clear directional bias either way at this point. Weekly trend is neutral and the setup this week is balanced. Resistance is weekly/June zone at 1.0540/45 to 1.0580. Above there is gap to 1.0715 Q3 level. Supports are 1.0365, June monthly baser at 1.0250/25 and 1.0185 and 1.0110 weekly levels. The modest daily uptrend that has been driving things higher in the short-term turns neutral under 1.0440 today. Strategy is to wait to sell 1.0715/85.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is still marginally bullish, but with overall neutral setup today. Resistance is 1.0500/05 and the weekly hurdles at 1.0540/45 and 1.0580. Key support is combined daily/weekly zone at 1.0365/60, then drop to 1.0250/25. Expecting a 1.0500 to 1.0365 day. Getting under 1.0360 turns more negative.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Wait to move 33% short at 1.0715; 67% short at 1.0785 – stop on close above 1.0800 Day Trade: sell 1.0500/05; buy 1.0365/60; go with action under 1.0360 (for 1.0250/25 target).


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Monday saw another wild boomerang trade in Sterling – but still within resistance boundaries at the key developing Q3/July zone from 1.9615 to 1.9655/65 to 1.9690. That trio remains the sell zone for potentially larger downside this week. Lone nearby weekly support is 1.9355, before drop to the July extreme at 1.9120. Above 1.9690 sees jump to 1.9835 and second Q3 level at 1.9870. Strategy is to hold existing shorts against 1.9700 for 1.9120 target.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Sterling presents an interesting daily setup, where trend reversed bullish Monday but at the same time Cable faces the key weekly/July/Q3 resistance at 1.9655/65 to 1.9690. The result should be a neutral day range. Above there is jump to 1.9835/55. Supports are 1.9580, 1.9520/15 daily trend and 1.9405. Expecting a 1.9690 to 1.9520/15 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 100% short at 1.9665 after adding shorts Monday. Stop on close above 1.9700. Day Trade: sell against 1.9655/65 and 1.9690; buy weakness to 1.9520/15 trend.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Euro continues to bounce around within a balanced intermediate setup. The lone change Monday was the neutral upturn in daily trend from bearish to neutral. Resistance for the week remains at 1.5585, then jumps to 1.5865 and the weekly/June/July area from 1.5910/60. Supports for the week are 1.5320 and 1.5240, before the drop to Q3 developing trend base at 1.5115/00. Still projecting a 1.5585 to 1.5115 week – expect test to 1.5585 today. Lacking direction, strategy for now is conservative – wait to buy 1.5115/00. Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend turned from bearish to neutral with the rally Monday. But the setup today is contained and expected to stay range bound. Resistance is 1.5505 and daily/weekly level at 1.5585, before jump to 1.5750. Supports are 1.5390 and daily/weekly zone at 1.5325/20. Looking for a 1.5390 to 1.5585 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, will wait to move 50% long at 1.5115/00 – stop on close under 1.5100. Day Trade: sell strength against 1.5585; buy weakness to 1.5325/20 and 1.5240.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. No major changes Monday. Weekly trend leans bullish (above 1.0091) this week, and the developing Q3 and July setups both point increasingly higher. For the week, however, a widespread setup argues for more two-way trade. Supports are first Q3 level at 1.0169, then the weekly/July buy zone form 1.0191/70 to 1.0042. Resistance for the week is 1.0332 and 1.0362 weekly level. Strategy is to buy cover existing shorts at 1.0169; buy weakness to 1.0191/70/42.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend stayed neutral Monday, failing to turn bullish with the setback. The resulting setup is neutral as well. Main support is the combined daily and Q3 zone at 1.0184/82 to 1.0169. Under there is drop to 1.0107. Resistance today is 1.0240, 1.0288 and 1.0303. Expecting a two-way day from 1.0169 to 1.0288.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.0323/32. Stop on close above 1.0362. Cover shorts at the 1.0169 Q3 level; move to 50% long at 1.0091/70; 100% long at 1.0042 – stop on close under 1.0020.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. The intermediate focus this week is still on the monthly uptrend at .9339. As long as it holds – and Monday’s neutral upturn in daily trend is the first objective sign – the overall setup is neutral. Resistance for the week is initial level at .9421, then the primary weekly ra4rget at .9534. Conversely, if .9229 gives way, support drops to the .9175 for the week and developing Q3 uptrend at .9107. Strategy is to hold existing long against .9339 to exit at .9534.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum managed to turn neutral with the rally Monday. The setup today is neutral to potentially positive. Supports are .9404, .9383/79 and the combined daily/June uptrend at .9344/39. Initial resistance is weekly/day zone at .9421/35, with jump above to .9511. Expecting a .9379 to .9435 day – with extension risk above there.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9370 average from last week. Stop on close under .9339 or intraday break of .9310. Target to exit is .9533 this week. Day Trade: buy .9383/79 and .9344/39; exit day longs at .9435.

Published on  Tue, Jun 17 2008, 06:50 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Mon, Jun 16 2008, 08:26 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The main directional trades this week are $/JPY and Sterling. $/CAD is also building into a stronger upside formation for July/Q3, with Aussie in increasing danger of a breakdown under its monthly uptrend at .9339. $/JPY is the cleanest picture, with bullish trend above 106.64 to 105.60/39 and no resistance to 110.32 for the week and 112.14 for June. Sterling has a negative setup, together with the additional pressure of open-ended downside risk for July/Q3. Expecting a 1.9655/65 to 1.9120 week. $/CAD is trend up, with nice weekly buy zone at 1.0091/42. In addition, both the Q3 (above 1.0169) and July (above 1.0042) setups are open-ended.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish. This is a solid bullish picture for the week, with trend now officially bullish and the close above the Q3/June area at 106.35/82 leaving an upside opening. Closest resistance is 110.32 weekly level, with the expected June target not 112.14. Supports for the week are 106.64, weekly trend zone at 105.60/39, then drop to 102.88/80. Bullish daily trend is also at 107.56 for Monday. Projecting a 105.60/39 t0 110.32 week. Will scale into longs at 106.64 and 105.60/39.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend starts the week still bullish, but with a neutral, two-way setup. Main day resistance is 108.51 to 108.72, before jump to 110.01. Supports are 107.55/48 trend, 107.20 and combined day extreme/weekly zone at 106.72/64. Expecting a 107.48 to 108.51/72 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 106.64; 100% long at 105.60/39 – stop on close under 105.00. The target is 112.14 June level. Day Trade Monday: buy 107.55/48 and 107.20; exit day longs at 108.51/72.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly momentum is neutral, with no clean bias either way this week. In addition, the outside range last week starts things off with a widespread, neutral setup. Resistance is June/weekly zone at 1.0540/45 to 1.0580, then jumps to the Q3/June sell zone at 1.0715 to 1.0785. Supports for the week are 1.0365, 1.0250/25 June zone and 1.0190. Daily trend is bullish (above 1.0420) for Monday. Projecting a 1.0225 to 1.0715 weekly range. Will set shorts on strength to 1.0715 and 1.0785.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is bullish above 1.0415, and the bias is higher toward weekly resistance as long as the USD holds above there. The main targets today are 1.0540/45 and combined weekly/day zone at 1.0580/90. Supports are 1.0435/15 trend and 1.0365 weekly level. Projecting a 1.0415 to 1.0540/45 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 33% short at 1.0715; 67% short at 1.0785 – stop on close above 1.0800 Day Trade: buy weakness against 1.0415 daily trend; sell 1.0540/45 and 1.0580/90.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Sterling has a very dicey long-term setup, with asymmetric risk lower for both July and Q3. Combined with a negative bias on the weekly setup, the risk this week is for a washout lower. Weekly resistance is 1.9515, 1.9655 and 1.9835. In addition, both the developing July (under 1.9480) and Q3 (under 1.9665) setups are open lower. Lone nearby support is 1.9355, then gap to 1.9120. Expecting a 1.9655/65 to 1.9120 week. Will add/hold shorts against 1.9655/65 on strength or on close under 1.9355 on weakness.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish, with an excellent combination of new weekly and daily resistance to sell against at 1.9515/30. Above there is intraday jump to 1.9595. Supports are 1.9390/75 and weekly breakdown level at 1.9355. Expecting a 1.9515/30 to 1.9390 day range..

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.9665. Add to 100% short at 1.9655/65 – stop on close above there. Also move 100% short on close under 1.9355 (limit on new shorts is 1.9325). Day Trade: sell 1.9515/30; cover at 1.9390/75.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend and setup are both neutral here, and this remains a very difficult market to trade right now. Developing resistance for next week is 1.5585, then jumps to 1.5865 and 1.5910. The larger June resistance is still high at 1.5960. Supports for the week are combined weekly/July level at 1.5320, 1.5240, then drops to the developing Q3 uptrend at 1.5115/00. Projecting 1.5115 to 1.5585 week. In terms of strategy, will wait to buy 1.5115/00; wait to sell 1.5910/60 for now.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend remains bearish with a negative setup today. At the same time, downside is neutralized by the new weekly supports at 1.5320 and 1.5240. First day support is 1.5215. Resistance for the day is 1.5365, daily trend at 1.5435/50 and 1.5545. Projecting a 1.5240 low to 1.5435/50 high.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, will wait to move 50% long at 1.5115/00 – stop on close under 1.5100. Day Trade Monday: sell 1.5435/50 daily trend; cover/buy 1.5240 and 1.5215.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend is bullish and the developing July/Q3 setups are also getting increasingly onesided. Although the setup this week is widespread and neutral, the goal is to cover shorts and get into longs on weakness. Supports are developing Q3 level at 1.0169, the weekly uptrend at 1.0091/70 and developing July/weekly level at 1.0042. Resistance is June hurdle at 1.0332, 1.0362 and 1.0424. Projecting a 1.0091 to 1.0362 week. Will cover shorts at 1.0169; set longs at 1.0091/42.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily momentum can return to bullish with settle above 1.0237/28 today. The day setup points modestly higher. Supports are 1.0267, 1.0237/28 and 1.0167/60. Earliest resistance is combined daily/June area at 1.0321/32. Projecting a 1.0237/28 to 1.0321/32 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.0323/32. Stop on close above 1.0362. Cover at the 1.0169 Q3 level; move to 50% long at 1.0091/70; 100% long at 1.0042 – stop on close under 1.0020.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Although the bullish monthly trend at .9339 did manage to hold Friday, Aussie is expected to stay under pressure this week. The fact weekly trend fell from bullish to neutral is one source of that pressure. In addition, the weekly setup – aside from the .9339 level – points lower. Resistance is .9421, .9534 and .9651. Below .9339 is minimum drop to .9175 for the week and developing Q3 trend at .9107. Projecting a .9534 to .9339 week – but with sharp extension risk under .9339.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. This is another battle between bearish daily trend (at .9401/06 today) and the key monthly uptrend support at .9339. The setup is neutral between there, with day support at .9343/41 and weekly level at .9421 reinforcing both sides. Under .9343/39 sees both intraday and intraweek drop to .9189/75. Expecting a .9406 to .9339 day.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9370 average from last Thursday. Stop on close under .9339 or intraday break of .9310. Target to exit is .9533 this week. Day Trade: sell .9401/06 and .9421 weekly level; also go with action under .9343/39.

Published on  Mon, Jun 16 2008, 08:26 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Fri, Jun 13 2008, 06:07 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The directional movers at this point are $/JPY and Sterling. Weekly trend is turning bullish in $/JPY, with upside now more expansive above both the broken Q3/June zone at 106.35/82 and developing weekly trend base at 106.05/105.39. That remains the buy zone for upside to June ceiling at 112.14. Weekly trend in Sterling is going to be neutral – but with open-ended downside bias under 1.9540 and no monthly support until 1.9120. Will hold existing shorts against 1.9540/65 for 1.9120 target. The other market in play today is Aussie, where the monthly uptrend at .9339 is in danger of giving way.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish. Weekly trend is all set to turn bullish with any close above 104.57 today. More importantly, a hold above the developing Q3 and June levels at 106.35 and 106.82 leaves an outright bullish setup. In addition, supports for next week are forming at 106.15 and 105.45/39 trend, before drop to 103.13. Upside on the developing weekly picture is open-ended at this point (closest level is 109.64), with no fixed long-term level until 112.14 June target. Will buy 106.15 and 105.45/39 for 112.14 target.

Daily Comments – Bullish. Daily trend is bullish and the setup for the day points higher. The fact the developing weekly setup has open-ended upside risk adds to the bullish skew. Supports are 107.70, daily trend at 107.21 and 106.94. Daily resistance is 108.32 and 109.56 extreme. Projecting a 107.21 to 109.56 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 106.15; 100% long at 105.45/39 – stop on close under 105.00. The likely target will be 112.14 later month. Day Trade: buy 107.21 and 106.94; exit day longs at 108.3 and 109.56


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral in $/Swiss, with no discernible breakout to either side of the monthly setup. Unlike $/JPY, $/Swiss remains well below its developing Q3 and June hurdles at 1.0715 and 1.0780. Initial weekly hurdles lie at 1.0540 and 1.0625 as well. Main support for next week is from June base at 1.0250/20 to 1.0190, with 1.0110 under there. Expecting more range action from 1.0250/20 to 1.0625. No clear trade here until the sale against 1.0710/85.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily momentum did turn bullish Thursday, but is left with an overall balanced setup today. Day resistance is 1.0470 and 1.0515, with the June hurdle at 1.0540 above there. Supports are 1.0385 daily uptrend, then 1.0295/90 and 1.0250/30 June base. Expecting a 1.0295 to 1.0515/40 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. No new position strategy for now – will wait to sell 1.0715 and 1.0785. Day Trade: buy weakness to 1.0295/90 and 1.0250/20; exit day longs at 1.0470 and 1.0515; sell 1.0540.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Weekly trend is going to start next week neutral. But more importantly, the developing weekly setup is now open-ended lower below 1.9540. That is first resistance for next week, with 1.9680, then June level at 1.9765/90 above there. Bearish daily trend also intersects at 1.9565 today. Under 1.9540/65, there is no fixed support until the June level at 1.9120. Hold existing shorts against 1.9540/65 today; target is 1.9120.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend and setup are both bearish, with the developing weekly setup open-ended lower under 1.9540. The combination points lower today. Resistance is 1.9495, weekly level at 1.9540, day trend at 1.9565 and 1.9610. Supports are 1.9385 and 1.9200. Projecting a 1.9540 to 1.9385 day – with potential extension under 1.9385.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.9665 from Wednesday. Lower stop to close above 1.9565 today. The target to cover is June level at 1.9120. Day Trade: sell 1.9540/65; cover day shorts at 1.9385; go with action under 1.9385


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The only real news here this week is that weekly trend is set to fall from bullish to neutral with settle under 1.5650 today. The setup otherwise looks balanced for next week. Resistance is forming at 1.5600, 1.5815 and 1.5910 to June level at 1.5960. Main support will be the still in play June breakdown level at 1.5430 and a weekly level at +/-1.5330/10, before drop-off to 1.5115/00. Strategy is to hold the existing partial long against 1.5430 today. Staying above there targets 1.5815/1.5910 for next week.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend is bearish in Euro, and the setup today points modestly lower. Resistance is 1.5435, the daily trend level at 1.5495 and 1.5545. Other than the wobbly 1.5430 June level, there is no support until the combined daily and developing weekly breakdown zone at 1.5330/10. Projecting a 1.5495 to 1.5330/10 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.5430/05 from Thursday. Stop on close under 1.5430 or intraday break of 1.5380 . The target is 1.5815 next week. Day Trade: sell against 1.5495 trend and 1.5545; buy weakness to 1.5330/10.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend should easily stay bullish (with any settle above .9977 today), but faces a huge widespread and neutral setup next week. Resistance for the June level at 1.0332 and 1.0362, with 1.0424 above there. Supports are developing weekly trend at 1.0060 to 1.0026, before drop to .9889. The fact daily trend fell neutral Wednesday signals we are likely already in a correction lower toward 1.0060/26. Strategy is to add/hold shorts against 1.0362; cover/set longs at 1.0060/26.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral from Wednesday’s downturn. The setup today is neutral and evenly balanced. Resistance is 1.0274/92, the June level at 1.0332 and developing weekly sell level at 1.0362. Supports are 1.0188/74, then drop to 1.0092. Expecting a balanced, two-way day from 1.0274/92 to 1.0188/74.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.0323/32. Add to 75% short at 1.0362 – stop on close above there. Cover and reverse 25% long at 1.0060; add to 50% long at 1.0026 – stop on close under 1.0010.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Aussie is hanging on a string above the key long-term support at bullish monthly trend of .9404 to .9339. As long as it ends the week above there, the overall setup is neutral. But getting below .9339 sees downside drop away sharply. As it now stands, resistance for the week is forming at .9433, .9529 and .9651. Below .9339 sees drop to .9175 for next week and developing Q3 trend at .9107. Strategy is to hold existing longs against .9339 for .9529 weekly target.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish under .9438 today, a level that matches up nicely with the initial weekly resistance at .9433. The larger risk for the day is down, but with the setup initially neutral until the June/weekly zone at .9339/24 gives way. Under there is drop to .9221. Resistance is .9396, .9433/38 and .9474. Expecting a .9433 to .9324 day.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9370 average after buying .9404 and .9339 yesterday. Stop on close under .9339 or intraday break of .9310. Target is .9526. Day Trade: sell .9433/38; also sell break under .9339/24.

Published on  Fri, Jun 13 2008, 06:07 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Tue, Jun 10 2008, 06:11 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

There are no easy trades in the USD at this point. Weekly trend in $/JPY still leans bullish above 104.57/53, and is pushing against its Q3/June sell zone at 106.35/82 – the focus for today. In Euro, Monday’s big retreat didn’t change a lot. Main supports are still 1.5515 and 1.5430/05 for the week, with resistance target sill 1.5930/65. Sterling is battling against its June/Q3 levels at 1.9765/90 and 1.9870, the latter a place to reset shorts against. Aussie faded back under both weekly uptrend and initial June support at .9511 yesterday. Expecting to now test monthly uptrend at .9404/.9339.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. Still a battle here between bullish-leaning weekly trend at 104.57/53 and the larger Q3/June resistance at 105.35 to 106.82. A weekly level is also at 107.03, before upside jumps more sharply to 109.75 for the week. Other than 104.57/53, support drops back to weekly/June base at 102.63/50 and 101.85. Still projecting a two-way week from 106.82/107.03 high to 102.63 low. Will add/hold shorts against the 106.82/107.03 zone.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral, with Friday and Monday’s opposite directional moves offsetting each other. The day setup is balanced. Supports today are 105.58, 104.90 and weekly/day zone at 104.57/41. Day resistance is 106.63, with longer-term levels at 106.35 (Q3) and 106.82 (June) to either side. Expecting a 104.90 to 106.63 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 75% short at 105.98 average. Add to 100% short at 106.82 – stop on close above 107.03. Cover 1/3rd of current short (25%) at 104.57/52 weekly trend; rest at 102.63/50 June base.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is neutral, with an overall neutral setup as long as 1.0160/40 support holds. Monday’s trade also saw a rebound back above the June trend zone at 1.0250/25. Resistance is 1.0345, 1.0505 and the weekly/June sell zone at 1.0525/40. Bearish daily trend also intersects at 1.0305/20 today. Below 1.0140 sees drop to .9985 June level and .9835 weekly extreme. Expecting a 1.0345 to .9985 week. Strategy for now is to wait to sell 1.0525/40 for decline to .9985.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. The battle today is once again between bearish daily trend – at 1.0305/20 today – and the key weekly breakdown support at 1.0160/40. Day supports are also at 1.0160 and 1.0110, before drop to .9985. Resistance is 1.0305/20 trend and 1.0380. Projecting a two-way day with 1.0320 high and 1.0160/40 low.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% short at 1.0525/40 – stop on close above 1.0550. Day Trade: sell strength to 1.0305/20 daily trend and 1.0345 weekly level; cover day shorts at 1.0160/40.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. No change Monday. Weekly trend is officially bullish, but effectively neutral until the June resistance at 1.9765/90 or Q3 level at 1.9870 is cleared. Both held Monday’s rally. Above 1.9860/70 is additional weekly level at 1.9955 before upside gap to 2.0220. Supports for the week are 1.9685/45 – which also contained Monday’s early weakness – before drop to 1.9240. Still projecting a 1.9870 to 1.9240 weekly range. Will sell 1.9860/70 to cover at 1.9240.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with close above 1.9640/20 today. At the same time, upside is still limited by the June zone at 1.9765/90 and Q3 level at 1.9870. Day resistance matches up with both sides at 1.9790 and 1.9865 above; 1.9640/20 trend support below. Expecting a 1.9640 to 1.9790 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 50% short at 1.9860/70 – stop on close above 1.9955 weekly level. Target is 1.9240 this week. Day Trade: sell 1.9765 and 1.9790; buy 1.9645/40 to 1.9620.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Although Euro faded lower yesterday, weekly trend remains bullish and the market is still above the 1.5625/20 monthly pivot ceiling. As long as that area holds, there remains no resistance until weekly/June zone at 1.5935 to 1.5960 – still the weekly target. Supports for the week are 1.5650 weekly trend, 1.5515 and the monthly/weekly breakdown zone at 1.5430/05. Projecting a 1.5515 to 1.5935/60 week. Strategy remains to wait to buy 1.5430/05; wait to sell 1.5960.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend remains bullish, but Monday’s backtrack leaves a neutral setup. The early keys to direction today are weekly trend/day zone from 1.5650/45 to 1.5665/70. Under there is drop to weekly level at 1.5515 and 1.5460/40. Above there is weekly resistance at 1.57435 and 1.5910 day extreme. Projecting a 1.5515 to 1.5745 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 1.5430/05 – stop on close under 1.5400. On strength, move 25% short at 1.5935; 50% short at 1.5960 – stop on close above 1.5975.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly momentum remains bullish from last week’s reversal higher – but with overall neutral setup due to deep weekly supports. Resistance for the week is 1.0246, the June level at 1.0332 and 1.0473. Weekly supports are well back at 1.0036/24 and .9978 weekly uptrend. There is both bullish daily trend (1.0191) and the Q3 level at 1.0166/60 ahead of there. Expecting a 1.0246 to 1.0036/24 weekly range. Will set partial shorts at 1.0332; buy 1.0036/24.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is still bullish, but slowing. The day setup is neutral due to Monday’s outside range and the weekly level at 1.0246. Resistance today is 1.0235/46 to 1.0261, then jump to 1.1332 June sell level. Supports are 1.0191 daily trend, 1.0141/35 and 1.0073. Expecting a range day from 1.0246 to 1.0141.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, wait to move 50% long at 1.0036/24 – stop on close under .9975. On strength, move 50% short at 1.0323/32 – stop on close above there. Day Trade: buy 1.0141/35; sell 1.0246/61.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. It was an eventful day Monday, with the close under the weekly/June zone at .9516/11 and the bearish reversal in daily trend. Combined, they remove any bullish bias for the week and signal a rotation lower to test the bullish the monthly trend base at .9404 to .9339. There is a weekly level at .9445 ahead of there. Resistance is now bearish daily trend at .9571, then the weekly levels at 1.9652 and .9680. The new weekly range is seen from .9652/80 to .9404. Will set partial longs at .9404 and .9339.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish, with a neutral to modestly negative setup. Supports are the weekly level at .9445 and the first buy zone at deeper June support of .9404 (and day level at .9405). Resistance is daily downtrend at .9571 and the high daily/weekly zone at .9650/59. Expecting a .9571 to .9445 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat. On weakness, move 25% long at .9405/04 today; 50% long at .9339/24 – stop on close under .9330. Day Trade: sell against .9571 daily downtrend; buy .9445 and .9405/04.

Published on  Tue, Jun 10 2008, 06:11 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Fri, Jun 6 2008, 06:31 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

A true mixed bag in the USD heading into employment. The most directional picture is Sterling, with an open-ended weekly setup forming under 1.9630/90 and no fixed long-term support until 1.9120. Bearish daily trend is also at 1.9600 today. $/CAD is also trying to breakout to the upside and it too has open-ended upside risk above 1.0039 next week. But a key June/Q3 zone at 1.0160/66 remains in play for the weekly close. Elsewhere, the rally in $/JPY faces Q3/June resistance at 106.35/82; Euro is still neutral from 1.5430/05 to 1.5610/25; Aussie has tentative weekly setup from .9498 to .9624.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The battle setting up for next week looks to be between bullish-leaning weekly trend forming at 104.57/51 and the longer-term resistance at 106.35 (Q3) and 106.82 (June). A weekly level is also at 107.03, before upside turns open to the monthly extreme at 112.14. Supports for the week are developing at 105.25, 104.57/51 trend and the monthly base at 102.53/50. Strategy remains to add/hold shorts against 106.82 for rotation back to 102.53/50. Above 107 is more bullish.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily momentum can turn bullish with settle above 105.31/21 today – an area that matches up with first weekly support at 105.25. The setup is neutral to bullish. Resistance is Q3 level at 106.35 and June level at 106.82. Supports under 105.31/21 drop to 104.85 and developing weekly trend at 104.57/51. Expecting a 105.31/21 to 106.35 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 75% short at 105.98 average after adding shorts at 106.35 Thursday. Add to 100% short at 106.82 – stop on close above 107.03. Cover 1/3rd of current short (25%) at 104.57/51 weekly trend; rest at 102.53/50 June base.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. There has been no resolution so far, with the initial June boundaries at 1.0250/25 and 1.0540 both holding. Weekly trend and setup look to stay neutral for next week. Developing weekly resistance is 1.0505, then 1.0540, before jump to the Q3/June sell zone at 1.0715 to 1.0785. Weekly supports are forming at 1.0320 and 1.0220, with the monthly base at 1.0250/25 as well. Under 1.0200 sees minimum drop to 1.0015. Will add partial longs against 1.0250/20; wait to sell 1.0715/85.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend did turn trend down with Thursday’s weak close. But the outside range – and weekly/June supports below – leave an overall neutral day setup. Supports are 1.0320, 1.0280 and day/June zone at 1.0260/50 to 1.0225/20. Resistance is 1.0450 and 1.0540 June level. Expecting a 1.0450 to 1.0280 day.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215/00. On weakness, add to 50% long at 1.0250/25 – stop on close under 1.0220. On strength, exit longs at 1.0540. Day Trade: sell 1.0450 and 1.0505; cover shorts at 1.0280; buy 1.0260/50.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral (with potential to reverse bearish under 1.9480 today). More importantly, risk on both the developing weekly and June setups is skewed lower. Developing weekly resistance is 1.9630 and 1.9685/90; June hurdles lie above there at 1.9765, 1.9790 and Q3 level of 1.9870. The closest support next week will be 1.9240, with no monthly level below until 1.9120. Look to set shorts against 1.9685/90 for trade to 1.9120.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish, but with an initially neutral setup today. Initial support is 1.9515 to expiring weekly zone at 1.9490/80. Under there is drop to 1.9390. Resistance is daily trend at 1.9590/1.9600, weekly/day sell zone at 1.9630/40 and second weekly sell structure 1.9685/90. Expecting a 1.9630/40 to 1.9490/80 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 25% short at 1.9630/40 today; 75% short at 1.9685/90 – stop on close above 1.9700. Target is 1.9120 this month. Day Trade: sell 1.9600 and 1.9630/40; cover at 1.9490/80.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The bottom line – at least so far this week - is that Euro has been able to hold above both the monthly and weekly breakdown levels at 1.5430 to 1.5405. Staying above there keeps an overall neutral setup for next week, with resistance forming at 1.5610/20 trend (the monthly trend is also at 1.5620/25), then 1.5755 and 1.5855. But any break under 1.5430/05 sees support drop minimally to 1.5255 for the week and to 1.5115/00 for June. For now, will still wait to set shorts on a break/close under 1.5400.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend did reverse bullish Thursday. But the outside range – combined with the weekly/June hurdle at 1.5610/25 – makes for a neutral day range. Resistance is 1.5610/25 (also a day level) and 1.5700. Supports are 1.5485, the developing weekly breakdown level at 1.5405 and 1.5380. Expecting a 1.5610/25 to 1.5405/1.5380 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% short on close under 1.5400 (limit 1.5370). The target is 1.5115/00. Day Trade: sell against daily/weekly zone at 1.5610/25; buy weakness to opposing day/weekly support at 1.5405/1.5380.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish. Weekly trend will reverse bullish with any settle above 1.0124 today. At the same time, a close above the combined June/Q3 zone at 1.0160/66 will leave a more bullish long-term picture. Resistance forming for next week is 1.0246, the subsequent June level at 1.0332 and 1.0473. Supports are 1.0036, developing weekly trend zone at .9974/70 and .9889. The focus today is how the USD closes versus the 1.0166/60 Q3/June zone. No new position trade for now.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is securely bullish today, but with a widespread and neutral setup. Main resistance is clustered around the initial weekly level at 1.0246, with day levels at 1.0230 and 1.0257. Supports are 1.0116 uptrend, 1.0092/91 and weekly level at 1.0036. Expecting a 1.0116 to 1.0230/46 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after stopping the 1.0160/66 short on the close above there Thursday. No new position trade for now. Day Trade: sell 1.02330/46/57; buy 1.0116 to 1.0092/91.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. The price action this week has been inconclusive in terms of the next directional move. Weekly trend has so far managed to stay bullish (with Friday close above .9540), but the sideways week leaves an overall neutral and balanced setup forming for next week. Resistance for next week is .9624, .9713 and June breakout level at .9752. Supports are the May/weekly zone at .9511/.9489, .9445 and the June trend base at .9404 to .9339. Will wait to buy .9404/.9339; sell .9762.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend can turn bullish with settle above .9557/46 today. But the inside range Thursday leaves a tight setup. Resistance is daily/weekly zone at .9606/24, then jumps to .9710/13. Supports are .9557/46 trend zone, then daily/weekly area at .9512/.9498 and .9445. Expecting a .9512 to .9606 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat. No hurry to be involved at these levels. Will wait to reset longs at .9404 and .9339; wait to set partial shorts at .9762 June level. Day Trade: buy .9606/24; buy .9512/.9498.

Published on  Fri, Jun 6 2008, 06:31 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Thu, Jun 5 2008, 13:02 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Sterling continues to breakdown in slow, but steady fashion. The week’s action under the June pivot area at 1.9765/90 to 1.9870, the close under bullish-leaning weekly trend at 1.9660/55 and open-ended downside on the developing weekly chart below 1.9645/85 all point lower. Will look to set partial shorts against 1.9645/85 for decline to monthly base at 1.9120. Euro has a similar intramonth breakdown gap under June/weekly zone at 1.5430/05 to 1.5115/00. The other major trade yesterday was the push higher in $/CAD, challenging the June/Q3 resistance/sell structure at 1.0160/66.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The tight, inside range this week hasn’t changed much here. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral (though it can lean bullish above 104.57/44 next week), with an overall neutral setup. The fact the resistance barrier is comprised of longer-term levels – 105.54 June hurdle, 105.85 Q2 and 106.35/82 Q3/June zone – keeps it unchanged. Supports for next week are forming at 104.57/44 trend, 103.35 and 102.53/50 monthly trend. Will add/hold shorts against 106.35/82; cover at 102.50.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is still neutral and the setup today is largely balanced. Main support is the combined developing weekly/day zone from 104.57 to 104.44/37. Under there is drop to 103.56/53. Day resistance is 105.21, then the June level at 105.54 and Q2 level at 105.85. Expecting a two-way day from 104.57/37 to 105.54.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 105.69 average. Add to 75% short at 106.35; 100% short at 106.82 – stop on close above. Cover shorts at 102.54/50 this week. Day Trade: sell 105.21 and 105.54; buy 104.44/33.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Still no change here, with both weekly trend and setup looking to remain neutral and balanced for next week. Resistance is forming at 1.0500 for the week, with the initial June hurdle still at 1.0540. Getting above there triggers upside extension to the larger Q3/June sell zone at 1.0715 to 1.0785. Support for next week is 1.0320, the monthly trend base for June at 1.0250/25 and 1.0015. Expecting more range action from 1.0250/20 to 1.0540.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend does lean bearish today, but with an overall neutral setup that should likely produce two-way trade. Main support is combined daily/developing weekly zone at 1.0330/20 and the 1.0250 June buy level. Resistance is 1.0415/20, 1.0460 and developing weekly level at 1.0500. Projecting a 1.0330/20 to 1.0460 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215/00. On weakness, add to 50% long at 1.0250/25 – stop on close under 1.0220. On strength, exit longs at 1.0540. Day Trade: buy 1.0330/20; exit day longs at 1.0460 and 1.0500.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Sterling is starting to breakdown in earnest once again. The market is now well under the pivotal June zone at 1.9765/90 to 1.9870, weekly trend is going to stay neutral with any settle under 1.9660/55 Friday, and the developing weekly setup is open-ended below 1.9645. Although there remains a current weekly extreme at 1.9490/80, the likely target is June level at 1.9120. Resistance for next week is 1.9645, 1.9685/95 and June levels at 1.9765/90 and 1.9870. Will sell 1.9645/95 for now.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend can turn bearish with settle under 1.9630/35 today, and the setup poins lower. Resistance is 1.9555, then combined daily/weekly sell zones at 1.9630/45 and 1.9680/95. Main support is 1.9490/80, then 1.9430. Expecting a 1.9630 to 1.9490/80 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% short on close under 1.5400 (limit 1.5370). The target is 1.5115/00. Day Trade: sell 1.5490/1.5505; also go with break under 1.5405/00.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. This has been a powerful rally in $/CAD this week that has the potential to reverse weekly trend bullish with settle above 1.0124 this Friday. Still, until the market sustains above the combined June and developing Q3 resistance at 1.0160/66, the setup is neutral. That remains the primary sell zone. A close above there sees gap to 1.0246 next week and 1.0332 for June. Supports for next week are 1.0036 and .9978/62 developing weekly trend. Hold shorts against 1.0166.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. The day trade is a battle between bullish daily trend at 1.0055/52 and the key Q3/June hurdle at 1.0160/66. If that is cleared, intraday upside jumps to 1.0246 and 1.0299. Initial support is 1.0129, with the daily trend/weekly zone at 1.0055/36. Expect a 1.0166 to 1.0055 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.0160/66 June/Q3 zone from late Wednesday. Stop on close above 1.0166. Day Trade: sell 1.0166 and 1.0246, separately; buy 1.0055/52/36.

Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly momentum will stay bullish with any settle above .9540 Friday, and the market has done an able job staying above the initial June support at .9511. At this point, the setup for next week looks neutral to positive. Supports are forming at .9575 trend, .9522/11 and .9445, with deeper monthly uptrend at .9404 to .9339. Main weekly resistance is high at .9715 and the June breakout of .9762. Expecting .9522/11 to .9715/62 range action.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend turned from bearish to neutral yesterday, with the outside range leaving a widespread setup. Support are .9548, weekly/June zone at .9522/11 and .9471. Resistance is .9627, .9652 and .9715 developing weekly level. Expecting a .9522 to .9627/52 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat after stopping longs on intraday break of .9490 Wednesday. Will wait to reset longs at .9404 and .9339. . Day Trade: buy .9522/11; sell .9627/52.

Published on  Thu, Jun 5 2008, 13:02 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Wed, Jun 4 2008, 06:26 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The higher USD trade Tuesday stayed in bounds, but is starting to press the intermediate breakdown levels in Sterling (under 1.9660/55 weekly trend) and Euro (June/weekly base at 1.9440/00). Sustained action under there sees significant downside on an intramonth basis to 1.9120 in Cable and 1.5115/00 in Euro. Nothing major elsewhere. $/JPY and $/Swiss are still in widespread, sideways corrective ranges. The focus on strength is Q3/June zone at 106.35/82JPY and comparable, but higher, area at 1.0715/85CH. $/CAD turned trend up on the day chart (at 1.0004/.9984 today) and targets its Q3/June area at 1.0160/66.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/JPY recovered nicely yesterday, but remains neutral for both the week and day charts. Resistance above is still terraced at 105.54 (June), 105.85 (Q2), 106.35 (Q3) and 106.82 (June), with weekly level at 106.59 as well. Until that entire zone is cleared, the situation is neutral. Weekly support is 103.56, with the June trend base at 102.54/50. Still looking for a 103.56 to 106.35 week. Will add shorts at 106.35/59/82; cover at 102.54/50.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is neutral, with no bias either way today. All three daily hurdles happen to match up with longer-term resistance: 105.54 day/June level, 106.12/35 daily/Q3 zone and 106.82/95 June level. Supports are 104.44 and daily/weekly zone at 103.59/56. Looking for a two-way range day from 104.44 to 106.12.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 105.69 average. Add to 75% short at 106.35; 100% short at 106.82 – stop on close above. Cover shorts at 102.54/50 this week. Day Trade: buy 104.44; sell 106.12/35.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/Swiss bounced nicely from first weekly support at 1.0290 Tuesday. But both weekly trend and setup remain neutral here, with the market caught for now in a sideways correction. Key resistance for the week is initial June level at 1.0540 and weekly hurdle at 1.0595. The larger ceiling is the combined Q3 trend at 1.0715 to June level at 1.0785. Supports are 1.0290, June trend/weekly base at 1.0250/25, then break to .9985. Strategy remains to buy 1.0250/25; exit longs at 1.0540/95.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum remains neutral from Monday’s downturn, but with an overall balanced setup. Expecting another two-way range trade today. Resistance is 1.0515, combined June/day zone at 1.0540/45 and 1.0595 weekly level. Supports are 1.0410 and 1.0335, with the larger weekly base at 1.0290 to 1.0250/25. Expect a 1.0335 to 1.0540/45 day.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215/00. On weakness, reset to 50% long at 1.0250/25 – stop on close under 1.0220. On strength, exit the rest at 1.0540. Day Trade: buy 1.0335 and 1.0290; sell 1.0540/45 and 1.0595.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Yesterday’s settle under bullish-leaning weekly trend at 1.9660/55 spells trouble here. Combined with the action under the monthly pivot zone at 1.9765/90 to 1.9870 and bearish-leaning daily trend (under 1.9710 today), the situation is turning more negative. Minimum drop for the week is to 1.9490/80. The larger fallout for June is potentially to 1.9120. Resistance is 1.9705/10 daily trend, 1.9765/90 and 1.9870/85. Set shorts at 1.9705/10 and 1.9765/90.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend can turn bearish with settle under 1.9705/10 today, and the setup points lower with the break/close under weekly trend at 1.9660/55. Day support is 1.9610, then drops to weekly extreme at 1.9490/80. Resistance is 1.9670, 1.9705/10 trend and 1.9765 June level. Expecting a 1.9670 to 1.9490/80 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 25% short at 1.9705/10; 50% short at 1.9765; 75% short at 1.9790 – stop on close above 1.9800. Day Trade: sell 1.9670 and 1.9705/10; cover at 1.9490/80.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Euro managed to stay above its joint weekly/June breakdown zone at 1.5440/30 to 1.5400, but remains under pressure. If that area gives way, the weekly picture turns negative with drop-off to weekly extreme and developing Q3 level at 1.5115/00. Resistance is bearish daily trend at 1.5520 today, then the weekly trend zone at 1.5620/25 and 1.5750. The focus remains on 1.5400 – getting under there will accelerate downside. Strategy is to set shorts on close under 1.5400.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is still bearish. But Tuesday’s outside range – coupled with the weekly/June base at 1.5440/30 to 1.5400 – makes for an initially neutral setup. Under 1.5400 is drop to 1.5340 and 1.5245. Resistance is 1.5520 daily trend and 1.5620/35. Expecting a sideways to lower day from 1.5520 to 1.5340.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% short on close under 1.5400 (limit 1.5370). The target is 1.5115/00. Day Trade: sell 1.5520 and 1.5620/35, separately; also go with action under 1.5400.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/CAD is now well clear of the level that turns weekly trend neutral above .9943/41 this Friday, while at the same time turning daily trend bullish and eclipsing first weekly resistance at 1.0064. The likely target is the combination of June and Q3 resistance at 1.0160/66 – the earliest place to reset shorts. Supports for the week are .9943/41, .9917 and .9830. Bullish daily trend also intersects at .9984 today. The new projected weekly high is 1.0160/66. Will reset shorts against there.

Daily Comments – Bullish. Daily trend turned bullish Tuesday and the setup today points higher. Minimum upside is to the first day level and weekly extreme at 1.0123/24. The larger June/Q3 target sits at 1.0160/66 above there. Supports are 1.0004/01, .9984 trend and .9943/41 weekly zone. Expect a 1.0004 to 1.0124 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Reset to 50% short at 1.0160/66 June/Q3 zone – stop on close above there. Day Trade: buy weakness against 1.0004/01 and .9984 daily trend; sell daily/weekly zone at 1.0123/24 and 1.0160/66.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Aussie is still officially trend up (it turns neutral with Friday close under .9540) and is hanging on above the key weekly/June support at .9515/11 – but remains under pressure. If .9515/11 gives way, downside drops effectively to the deeper monthly uptrend base at .9404 to .9339. There is a weekly level at .9445 on the way down. Resistance at this point comes primarily from daily trend at .9545, plus weekly levels at .9566 and .9617. Still looking for a .9617 to .9445 week. Hold current longs against .9511.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish, with a negative bias for the day setup. Resistance is .9545 daily trend, .9566/76 daily/weekly zone and .9617. There is no day support until .9480/62 – although there remains the weekly/June zone at .9515/11 on the way lower. Based on the downtrend, this is likely a .9566/76 to .9462 day range.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9526 average. Stop on close under .9511 or intraday break of .9490. Day Trade: sell against .9566/76; cover at .9480/62; buy .9445 weekly level.

Published on  Wed, Jun 4 2008, 06:26 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Tue, Jun 3 2008, 06:15 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

There were no major out-of-bounds moves yesterday. Daily trend did fall from bullish to neutral in both $/JPY and $/Swiss, ending the short-term uptrends there for the time being and signaling rotation lower back to combined weekly/June supports at 102.54/50JPY and 1.025025CH – both places to cover existing shorts or set partial longs. Both Sterling and Euro stayed within their weekly breakouts, although Sterling is pressuring its downside boundary at 1.9660/55. A push below there points to 1.9490/80 for the week and 1.9120 for June. $/CAD leans bullish above .9935/32 and should continue to extend higher to weekly level at 1.0064.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The only shift yesterday was the loss of bullish daily trend – an event that should force a correction to weekly supports. Likely targets are either the weekly level at 103.56 or the combined weekly/June zone at 102.54/50. Under there is larger drop-off to 101.15. Main resistance is still the trio of longterm sell levels at 105.54 (June), 105.85 (Q2), 106.35 (Q3) and 106.82 (June). Weekly traffic is also at 105.26 and 106.59. Will add/hold shorts against 106.35/82; cover at 120.54/50.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily momentum fell from bullish to neutral Monday, signaling a correction lower. The setup today leans outright lower. Resistance is 104.78 and weekly/day zone at 105.26/32, plus the larger June/Q3 hurdles above there. There is no support until weekly target low at 103.56 and 102.97 day level. Expecting a 104.78 to 103.56 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 105.69 average. Add to 75% short at 106.35; 100% short at 106.82 – stop on close above. Cover shorts at 102.54/50 this week. Day Trade: sell 105.26/32; buy 103.56 and 102.97.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend remains neutral and the monthly trend just turned from bearish to neutral, both signs the upside correction remains ongoing. The setup for the week is evenly balanced. Resistance is first June level at 1.0540 and weekly hurdle at 1.0595. Above there is jump to larger sell levels at 1.0715 (Q3) to 1.0785 (June). Supports are 1.0290 and the June breakdown zone at 1.0250/25. Expecting a 1.0595 to 1.0250 week. Exit existing longs at 1.0540; reset longs at 1.0250/25.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum fell from bullish to neutral Monday, signaling a rotation lower to weekly supports. The setup today points lower to a test of the weekly supports at 1.0290 and 1.0250/25. First day level is 1.0235. Resistance is 1.0365, 1.0415/30 day zone and 1.0475. Expecting a 1.0290 to 1.0415 day range

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215/00. On weakness, reset to 50% long at 1.0250/25 – stop on close under 1.0220. On strength, exit the rest at 1.0540. Day Trade: sell 1.0415/30; cover at 1.0290; buy 1.0250/35.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Monday’s decline in Sterling managed to stay in bounds – though it is challenging the key support for the week at bullish-leaning weekly trend zone of 1.9660/55. If that gives way, then direction does start to resolve lower – first to weekly extreme at 1.9490/80, then much deeper June base at 1.9120. Resistance is still the string of weekly/June levels at 1.9765/90, 1.9840 and 1.9870/85 before opposite upside breakout to 2.0235. Will reset shorts on bounce to 1.9765/90 and 1.9870.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend is neutral, but the setup today points lower under the weekly trend zone at 1.9660/55. Getting under there sees drop to 1.9545 for the day and 1.9490/80 weekly extreme. Resistance is 1.9695, 1.9720/30 and June sell zone at 1.9765/90. Expecting a 1.9720 to 1.9545 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after covering the 1.9780 short at 1.9660/55 weekly trend Monday. Will reset to 50% short at 1.9765/90; 100% short at 1.9870/85 – stop on close above 1.9885. Day Trade: sell 1.9720/30; cover shorts at 1.9545.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Although yesterday’s decline did close under the level that turns weekly trend neutral this Friday at 1.5605, Euro did not break outside either of the key boundaries this week. The focus below is on the combined weekly/June zone at 1.5440/30 to 1.5400. Below there is drop-off to 1.5115. Resistance is June level at 1.5620/25 and weekly breakout at 1.5750, before an opposite jump to 1.5960. Strategy is to go with a break/close under 1.5400 for decline to 1.5115/00.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is still bearish, but with a neutral setup after Monday’s sideways range. Main resistance is 1.5590/1.5605 to the June zone at 1.5620/25. Above there is jump to 1.5715. Day support is 1.5515 an 1.5495, with the larger June/weekly breakdown area at 1.5440/30 to 1.5400. Expect a 1.5590 to 1.5440/30 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% short on close under 1.5400 (limit 1.5370). The target is 1.5115/00 this week. Day Trade: sell 1.5590/1.5605 and 1.5620/25; cover at 1.5440/30 and 1.5415/00.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Weekly momentum is still officially bearish, but can turn neutral with Friday close above .9941/44. The setup for the week is neutral overall, but with bullish-leaning daily trend (above .9935/32 today) pointing higher short-term. Weekly resistance is 1.0064 and 1.0124, with the June target and sell zone at 1.0160/66. Supports are the .9943/41 weekly trend zone, .9917 and .9830. Expecting a 1.0064 to .9830 day range. Strategy is to reset shorts at 1.0160/66.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with settle above .9935/32 today and the setup for the day leans higher. Supports are .9989, the daily trend zone at .9935/32 and .9889. There is no resistance until the combined weekly/day zone at 1.0064 to 1.0083. Expect a .9935/32 to 1.0064 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after being stopped from shorts on the break/close above .9944 weekly trend. Reset to 50% short at 1.0160/66 June/Q3 zone – stop on close above. Day Trade: buy .9935/32 daily trend zone; sell 1.0064/83.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Although both weekly and monthly trend are bullish here, the short-term picture has turned a little noisy with the downtrend on the day chart. Supports are weekly/June zone at .9515/11 (it held Monday), .9445 and main June uptrend base at .9404 to .9339. Resistance this week is .9565/66 and .9617, before upside gaps to .9757. Projecting a .9445 to .9617 weekly range. Hold new longs with tight stop against .9511; if stopped, will reset at .9404/.9339.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. This is a complex setup, with bearish daily trend (.9553/55) vying against the weekly/June support zone at .9515/11 today. The result is an overall neutral setup. An additional day support is at .9491, with weekly level at .9445. Additional resistance is .9566 and .9605/17. Expecting a .9491 to .9555/66 day range.

Position Strategy: Current 50% long at .9526 average after adding longs at .9511 Monday. Stop on close under .9511 or intraday break of .9490. Day Trade: buy .9511 and .9491; sell .9605/17.

Published on  Tue, Jun 3 2008, 06:15 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Mon, Jun 2 2008, 07:04 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The only true trend/setup picture on the grid for June is in Aussie. It remains trend up on the monthly chart, with supports at .9511 and .9404 for the month and potentially open-ended Q3 setup above .9565. The trigger for accelerated upside is getting above .9762. Both $/JPY and $/Swiss ended monthly downtrends in May, signaling modest upside corrections to developing Q3 resistance (bearish momentum) at 106.35/82JPY and 1.0715/85CH. Both are sell zones. Sterling and Euro have breakout-type setups outside 1.9655 to 1.9870/85 in Cable and 1.9430 to 1.9620/25 in Euro. Weekly trend leans bullish in each.


JPY/USD

Monthly Outlook – Neutral. Monthly trend turned from bearish to neutral in May, signaling a correction that likely targets the developing Q3 downtrend at 106.35. The overall June setup is neutral. A quartet of resistance lies at 105.54 (June), 105.85 (Q2), 106.35 and 106.82 (June), before upside jumps to 112.14. Supports are 102.53/50 and 100.22, with Q3 base at 99.20. Projecting a 106.35 to 102.50 monthly range. Will sell against 106.35/82.
Weekly trend is going to stay neutral and is expected to range from 103.56 to 106.35/59 this week.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily momentum remains bullish to start the week, but with an overall neutral setup for Monday. Primary resistance is Q2/day zone at 105.85/92, then Q3 sell level at 106.35. Support is 105.13/01 daily trend and 104.65. Expecting a contained day from 105.13/01 to 105.85/92.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 105.69 average. Will add to 75% short at 106.35; 100% short at 106.82. Stop on close above 106.82. Will cover at 102.54/50 this month. Day Trade: sell 105.85/92; buy 105.13/01.


CHF/USD

Monthly Outlook – Neutral. Like $/JPY, monthly trend turned from bearish to neutral signaling an upside correction expected to target developing Q3 downtrend at 1.0715. The overall June setup is neutral. Initial resistance is 1.0540, with jump to 1.0715 and 1.0785 above there. Supports are 1.0250/35 trend, then drop to .9985 and fixed Q3 support at .9900. Based on the trend shift, projecting a 1.0250/35 to 1.0715/85 month. Will sell 1.0715/85.
Weekly trend can turn bearish with Friday settle under 1.0405, but has an overall neutral setup from 1.0250/25 to 1.0540/95 this week.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend starts Monday officially trend up, but with a neutral to negative setup. The initial focus is on daily trend at 1.0425/35. Under there is drop to 1.0325/05 and first weekly level at 1.0290. Resistance is 1.0465 and 1.0525/40. Expecting a 1.0325 to 1.0465 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215. Exit at 1.0525/40. On weakness, reset to 50% long at 1.0250/25 this week – stop on close under 1.0220. For June, wait to move 50% short at 1.0715; 100% short at 1.0785 – stop on close above.


Pound

Monthly Outlook – Neutral. Sterling has a difficult, breakouttype setup for June. The key boundaries are 1.9870 Q3 level above and 1.9760 below. Under there sees minimum intramonth drop to 1.9120, with yearly uptrend deeper at 1.8930. Conversely, above 1.9870 sees jump to 2.0220 and 2.0310. Note, however, that weekly trend leans bullish above 1.9660/50 to start the month. Based on that bullish weekly bias, projecting a 1.9660 to 2.0220 monthly range.
The weekly situation is neutral from 1.9660/50 trend to Q3/weekly breakout at 1.9870/85 – with extension risk outside either end.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is neutral, with no clear lean either way Monday. Resistance is 1.9850 day level and the key June/weekly breakout at 1.9870/85. Supports are 1.9760, 1.9720 and 1.9690. Projecting a 1.9720 to 1.9850 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.9780. Stop and reverse 50% long on close above 1.9885 (limit on new longs is 1.9910). Cover existing short at 1.9660/55 this week. June Trade: go with action above 1.9870/85 or below 1.9660/55.


European Currency Unit

Monthly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Like Cable, Euro is faced with a breakout-type setup for June. The initial breakout parameters are 1.5430 support and 1.5620/25 monthly trend. Above there turns bullish and projects to 1.5960 and 1.6125. Conversely, under 1.5430 sees minimum drop to developing Q3 uptrend/June extreme at 1.5100/1.5065. Weekly trend did manage to turn trend up last week. Based on the background trend bias (monthly and weekly), projecting a 1.5430 to 1.5960 month. Early keys are 1.5430 vs 1.5620/25.
Weekly trend did turn (barely) bullish last week, but faces a neutral range setup from 1.5440/00 to 1.5750.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Despite Friday’s late bounce, daily trend remains bearish with a neutral to negative setup. Resistance is 1.5585 trend, 1.5605 and key June zone at 1.5620/25. Supports are 1.5465 and combined weekly/daily/June zone at 1.5440/30. Projecting a 1.5585/1.5605 high and 1.5465 day low.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move 50% long at 1.5440/30 – stop on close under 1.5400 this week. For June, can go with action under 1.5440/00 (to 1.5120) or above 1.5620/25 (to 1.5960).


CAD/USD

Monthly Outlook – Neutral. Monthly trend stayed neutral in May, failing to turn bullish. The setup for June is neutral to bearish. Resistance is 1.0074, then the key monthly/Q3 sell zone at 1.0160/66, before jump to 1.0330. Initial support is .9912, with drop below there to Q2 target at .9700 and June level at .9647. Weekly trend remains negative to start the month. Projecting a 1.0160/66 to .9700/.9647 June range. Will sell 1.0160/66.
Weekly trend is still bearish under .9941/43, but with neutral setup from .9830 to 1.0062/74.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral, with a tricky battle today between initial weekly levels at .9917/12 and .9943 trend. Above there sees intraday gap to 1.0021; below combined .9918/07 zone sees drop to .9843. Expecting a .9918/14 to 1.0021 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at .9918 average after adding shorts at .9924 on Friday. Stop on close above .9944 today. The target is .9700 Q2 level. June trade: sell strength to 1.0160/66; cover shorts at .9700 to .9647 on weakness.


Australian Dollar

Monthly Outlook – Bullish. Monthly trend remains bullish in Aussie, and the larger risk for the month is up. The main resistance is .9762, with gap thru there to 1.0265. Note the developing Q3 setup turns open-ended higher above .9565. Supports for the month are tiered at .9511, .9404 and bullish trend at .9339, before drop to Q3 trend at .9107. Projecting a by-thebook month from .9404 to .9762 – but with extension risk above .9762.
Weekly trend is bullish, but starts out with neutral setup from .9445 to .9617.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend leans bearish with settle under .9574/76 today, but is neutralized by the new weekly/June support at .9515/11. Day supports are also at .9521 and .9496, before drop to .9404. Main resistance is the .9574/76 trend and weekly level at .9617. Expect a .9521/11 to .9576 day.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at .9543/41 from last week. Add to 50% long at .9511 – stop on close under .9511. The target is .9762 June level.

Published on  Mon, Jun 2 2008, 07:04 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Fri, May 30 2008, 06:23 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The USD rally made good contact with the combined June/Q2/Q3 sell zone from 105.54 to 106.35JPY yesterday. With the bullish turn in daily trend, a further push into that area is expected today. As long as 106.35 holds, the intermediate setup is neutral back to 102.56/12. $/Swiss is also pushing higher, with its June level at 1.0540 (exit longs) and larger weekly/Q3 zone at 1.0690/1.0715 (set shorts). At the same time, the USD remains negative vs CAD and Aussie, with weekly trend still bearish and openended developing setups under .9911/24CAD and above .9555/51 to .9511 in Aussie.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/JPY has rallied right into the primary sell zone of May level at 105.54, Q2 level at 105.85 and developing Q3 level at 106.35. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral (corrective) and long as the USD stays under that area, the overall setup is balanced as well. Supports for next week are forming at 103.56, 102.56 and the developing June uptrend at 102.12. Daily trend is still bullish above 104.62. Strategy remains to add/hold shorts against 106.35 for minimum target of 102.56/12.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is bullish, but with overall neutral setup due to the longer-term levels at 105.54, 105.85 and 106.35. First day resistance is 106.44. Main day support is the 104.66/62 daily uptrend with 103.90 and weekly level at 103.56 below. Expecting a two-way day from 105.85 to 105.66/62. A stretch to 106.35/44 is possible

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 105.69 average after selling 105.54 and 105.85 Thursday. Add to 100% short at 106.35 – stop on close above 106.40. The minimum target is 102.56 to 102.12.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Still no big change to this point. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral (corrective), with a balanced setup forming for June. The short-term rotation higher now targets the fixed June level at 1.0540 or higher weekly/Q3 zone at 1.0690/1.0715. Supports for next week are 1.0305, 1.0225 and developing monthly trend at 1.0210/05. Daily trend is also bullish and intersects at 1.0370 today. Strategy is to exit the remainder of longs at 1.0540; will wait to sell 1.0690/1.0715.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend turned bullish yesterday, but upside is partially neutralized today by the fixed June level at 1.0540. Above there is intraday gap to 1.0630. Supports are 1.0470, daily trend zone at 1.0375/70 and 1.0310/05. Expecting a two-way range from 1.0375/70 to 1.0540.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% long at 1.0215/00 after exiting ½ at 1.0500 yesterday. On weakness, reset to 50% long at 1.0210/05 – stop on close under 1.0200. On strength, exit the rest at 1.0540; will move 50% short at 1.0690/1.0715.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Still not any conclusive directional shift here - though the market has stayed below the key developing June levels at 1.9755 to 1.9790 to 1.9870. An additional fixed weekly level at 1.9885 reinforces the ceiling on the market. As long as that holds, the overall setup is neutral. Above 1.9870/85 is jump to 2.0235. Support for next week is 1.9655/45, then drops to 1.9490. Hold existing shorts against 1.9885; cover part at 1.9655/45; hold rest.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral Thursday, leaving an overall balanced setup. Resistance is 1.9790/95, 1.9860 and the key June/weekly zone at 1.9870/85. Supports are 1.9700 and weekly/day zone at 1.9655/35. Expecting a 1.9860 to 1.9655/35 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.9780 average. Stop on close above 1.9870. Cover ½ at 1.9655/35; hold the rest. Day Trade: sell 1.9860/85; cover day shorts/buy 1.9655/35.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Euro has performed poorly this week, with the retreat behind both the June level at 1.5620 and the level that turns weekly trend bullish at 1.5555 removing any positive bias. The overall setup now looks neutral. Resistance is June level at 1.5620, developing weekly level at 1.5740, then jumps to 1.5995. Supports are combined June/weekly zone at 1.5395/80, before drop to 1.5165. Expecting 1.5395/80 to 1.5740 range action over the next week. No new position strategy for now.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend turned bearish Thursday, and the setup today points lower. Resistance is 1.5570, the fixed June level at 1.5620 and daily trend zone at 1.5635/50. There is no support until the combined June/weekly zone at 1.5395/80 and first day level at 1.5370. Expecting a 1.5570 down to 1.5395 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after stopping the longs on close under 1.5555. No new position trade for now. Day trade: be better seller of strength to 1.5570 and 1.5620/50. Cover day shorts at 1.5395/80/70.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Weekly trend is going to stay bearish and both the developing weekly and June setups are open lower at this point. The key developing resistance levels are clustered at .9905 (June) to .9911/24 (weekly), with developing weekly trend at .9946. Above there finds minimum relief to June/weekly zone at 1.0048/69. The closest fixed support is the Q2 level at .9700. Strategy is to add shorts at .9924 against .9946 for trade to .9700 target.

Daily Comments – Neutral. The day setup is a pick‘em type. But the fact daily trend fell neutral Thursday and the weekly setup is open-ended under .9905/11 points lower. Main resistance is the weekly levels at .9904/11 and .9924/46. Support under .9886 drops to .9760 minimum. Based on the weekly bias, projecting a .9905/11 to .9760 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% short at .9904/12 from Thursday. Add to 50% short at .9924 – stop on close above .9946 . The target is .9700. Day Trade: sell against .9911 and .9924; cover at .9760.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Aussie is still dancing around its Q2 breakout level at .9594. But weekly trend is going to stay bullish and both the developing weekly chart (above .9555/51) and developing June (above .9511) setups are open higher. Both those areas are the main support and present the best structure to trade against. Under there is drop to .9441 for next week. Resistance is forming at .9617, then jumps to .9757 for next week. Will add/hold longs against .9511.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is still neutral, with a widespread setup resulting from Thursday’s outside range. But additional weekly supports at .9555/51 and .9511 make the market better bid. Day supports match up at .9549 and .9504. Resistance today is .9617 and day zone at .9649/53. Expecting a .9511 to .9649 day range.

Position Strategy: Current 25% long at .9543/41 from Thursday. Add to 75% long at .9511 – stop on close under .9500. No upside target for now. Day Trade: buy .9555/49 and .9511/04; exit day longs at .9617 and .9649.

Published on  Fri, May 30 2008, 06:23 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Thu, May 29 2008, 06:02 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

$/JPY and $/Swiss continue to rotate between competing June boundaries forming at 102.12 to 105.54/106.33JPY and 1.0210/05 to 1.0540CH. Both sides are tradable, with the combined June/Q2/Q3 traffic at 105.54/106.33JPY the single best trading zone. $/CAD and Aussie are unclear in terms of short-term bias, but increasingly negative for the USD longer-term. Weekly, June and Q3 setups are all open-ended higher above .9617/15 to .9511 in Aussie, while $/CAD points lower under its weekly/June traffic at .9704/11 to .9926/41. Sterling and Euro are indecisive at this point between tight June/weekly boundaries.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/JPY continues to rotate between widespread June levels, with no clear directional bias at this point. Main resistance is the June level at 105.54, with Q2 level at 105.85 and developing Q3 ceiling at 106.35 reinforcing the ceiling above there. Supports are devolving June trend at 102.12, before larger drop to 99.56/25. Weekly levels are forming inside at 102.80 and 105.05. No change in strategy: will scale into shorts from 105.54 to 106.33 on strength; buy against 102.12 on weakness.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bullish with a settle above 103.96 today. The setup points modestly higher toward the June/Q2 sell zone at 105.54 to 105.85. That is first resistance, with daily/Q3 sell area at 106.19/35 above there. Supports are 104.02/013.96 trend and 103.47. Projecting a 104.02 to 105.54 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, move 25% short at 105.54; 50% short at 105.85; 100% short at 106.35 – stop on close above 106.40. On weakness, move 50% long at 102.12 developing June uptrend – stop on close under 102.00.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. No major changes in the intermediate picture here, with weekly trend still neutral (i.e., corrective/range trade) and the setup largely balanced between competing June boundaries at 1.0210/05 trend and 1.0540 resistance. There are developing weekly supports at 1.0350 and 1.0270 inside there. Above 1.0540 sees jump to 1.0690 for next week and to 1.0715 for June. Under 1.0210/05 sees drop to .9900. Strategy is to hold longs against 1.0200; exit at 1.0540.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend is positioned to turn bullish with settle above 1.0300 today. The setup points modestly higher, with nothing above until 1.0500 and June level at 1.0540. Supports are 1.0340, 1.0300 daily trend and developing weekly level at 1.0270. Projecting a 1.0300 to 1.0500 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% long at 1.0215/00. Stop longs on close under 1.0175 May level for now (will raise to 1.0200 for Friday). Exit ½ at 1.0500 today; rest at 1.0540. Day Trade: buy 1.0300 and 1.0270; sell 1.0500 and 1.0540.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. There has been very little directional resolution so far this week as Sterling has stayed largely within the developing June boundaries at 1.9755 to 1.9790 to 1.9870. Those three levels will remain very much in play into early June. In addition, developing weekly boundaries are forming at 1.9665/25 below and 1.9955 above. Not a lot to do here at current levels. Will hold existing shorts against 1.9870 for now; cover a portion on weakness to 1.9665/25.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral from Tuesday, and the setup today is neutral and evenly spread to both sides. Resistance is daily/June zone at 1.9865/70 and fixed weekly level at 1.9955. Supports are 1.9755, 1.9725 and 1.9690. Looking for a 1.9725 to 1.9865/70 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.9780 average. Stop on close above 1.9870. Cover ½ at 1.9645/25; hold rest. Day Trade: sell 1.9865/70; buy 1.9725 and 1.9690.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. Weekly trend still leans bullish with settle above 1.5555 this Friday. But the developing weekly and June setups have turned a little wobbly with the lack of upside push this week. The pivotal zone area is 1.5620/1.5555 to developing weekly level at 1.5730. Above there is bullish and points to 1.6035 for the week and 1.6205 for June. Conversely, a break/close under 1.5555 sees minimum drop to 1.5395 for next month. Hold existing longs against 1.5555 for today; will raise that to 1.5620 for Friday.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend leans bearish with settle under 1.5725 today, and the day shapes up as a battle between there and bullish-leaning weekly trend at 1.5555. A day support is also at 1.5535, before drop to 1.5405. Resistance is 1.5685, 1.5705 and 1.5725/30. Projecting a 1.5555 to 1.5730 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% long at 1.5620/10 from Wednesday. Stop on close under 1.5555 today; raise to 1.5620 for Friday. Target is 1.6205. Day Trade: buy 1.5555/35; sell 1.5725/30.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Bearish weekly trend at 1.0002 this week is holding, and both the developing June and weekly setups point sharply lower under .9904/11 to .9926/41. Any weekly settle under there leaves downside open to .9721 for next week and to .9700 for rest of Q2. Resistance above there is 1.0021, then 1.0160. Oddly, daily trend turned bullish yesterday, but intersects at .9912 today. Will scale into partial shorts at .9904/11 to .9926/41. Target is still .9700.

Daily Comments – Neutral. An awkward day setup, where daily trend turned officially bullish, but the soft close near the lows leaves a neutral to bearish setup. Resistance is .9909/12, .9926 and .9967. Additional weekly sell levels are .9904/11 and .9926/41. Supports are .9868 and .9831. Expecting a .9926 to .9868 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 25% short at .9904/12; 50% short at .9926/41 – stop on close above .9941 today. The target is .9721/00. Day Trade: sell .9926/41; cover at .9868.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. The longer Aussie can stick above the Q2 breakout zone at .9594/.9614, the more likely upside extension becomes. As it now stands, developing weekly (above .9617/15), June (above .9511) and Q3 (above .9565) setups are all open-ended higher. Bullish weekly trend will also rise to .9543/41 for next week. Staying above .9617/15 leaves only an expiring weekly zone at .9731/50. Will set partial longs against .9543/41 and the .9511 June level.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral from Tuesday’s downturn, but with a neutral to slightly positive setup today. Supports are a mix of daily and longer-term levels at .9617/15, .9579/65 and .9543/41 buy zone. Resistance is .9642 and .9669. Based on the short-term absence of trend, projecting a .9543 to .9642 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat. Move 25% long at .9543/41; 75% long at .9511 – stop on close under .9500. No upside target for now. Day Trade: buy .9543/41 and .9511; exit day longs at .9642 and .9669.

Published on  Thu, May 29 2008, 06:02 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Wed, May 28 2008, 06:49 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Neutral upturns in daily momentum in the USD vs JPY, Swiss, Sterling, Euro and Aussie – as well as a bullish upturn vs CAD – all signal a short-term rotation higher. The targets for these moves vary by cross. Both $/JPY and $/Swiss likely target developing June sell levels at 105.54/85JPY and 1.0540CH, while $/CAD and Aussie target weekly trend zones at 1.0002CAD and .9492/70 in Aus$ Euro, despite the short-term downturn, still has bullish-leaning weekly trend and strong weekly/June support structure to buy at 1.5620/10 to 1.5555. Sterling has breakout risk for the week outside June levels at 1.9755/45 or 1.9870.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. No major changes to start the week. The intermediate battle here is largely between competing June levels forming at 102.12 and 105.54. Price action is viewed as neutral inside there. Additional weekly layers are at 102.49 below and 104.79/90 above. The bigger risk outside 102.12 to 105.54 looks to be to the downside, with drop-off under 102 to at least 99.97 this week. Still projecting a 102.12 to 105.54 week. Will buy 102.12; set shorts against June/Q2 zone at 105.54/85

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily momentum stayed neutral Tuesday, but with a positive bias today as a result of Tuesday’s firm price action. Supports are 103.99, 103.59 and 103.35. There is no day resistance until 105.15, just above the initial weekly zone at 104.79/90 and ahead of June sell level at 105.54. Expecting a 103.59 to 104.90 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move 50% long at 102.12 developing June uptrend – stop on close under 102.00. On strength, move 25% short at 105.54; 50% short at 105.85/106.10 – stop on close above 106.20.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The main shift yesterday was the dual neutral upturn in daily trend and close above initial weekly level at 1.0295. Combined, they force a more neutral weekly setup. Resistance for the week is 1.0430, with the primary target the fixed June level at 1.0540 and 1.0650. Main support is still the developing monthly uptrend at 1.0210/05, with drop to 1.0025 under there. Still projecting a trade between June boundaries at 1.0205 to 1.0540. Hold existing longs against 1.0200 to exit at 1.0540.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend turned from bearish to neutral with Tuesday’s rally. The firm close leaves a neutral to bullish setup. Supports are 1.0310, daily trend at 1.0270, combined daily/June zone at 1.0210/00 and 1.0160. Resistance is 1.0400 and weekly/day zone at 1.0430/45. Projecting a 1.0270 to 1.0400 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% long at 1.0215/00. Stop longs on close under 1.0175 May level for now. The target is 1.0540. Day Trade: buy 1.0270 and 1.0210/00; exit at 1.0400; sell 1.0430/45.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Sterling remains a tense breakout situation between June/weekly support at 1.9755/45 and June resistance at 1.9870. That said, Tuesday’s loss of daily uptrend is the first sign of a potential failure up here. Under 1.9755/45 sees minimum intraweek drop-off to 1.9545 and 1.9355. The closest June support is even deeper at 1.9120. Conversely, above 1.9870 sees jump to 2.0065 and 2.0335. Continue to hold existing shorts against 1.9870, with earliest covers at 1.9545 and 1.9355 this week.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum fell from bullish to neutral yesterday. The outside range leaves a widespread, neutral setup. Resistance is 1.9790 and daily/June area at 1.9855/70. Supports are June/weekly breakdown at 1.9755/45, day level at 1.9735 and 1.9680. Projecting a 1.9855 to 1.9680 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at 1.9780 average. Stop on close above 1.9870. Cover ½ at 1.,9545; rest at 1.9355. Day Trade: sell 1.9855/70; cover day shorts at 1.9755/35 and 1.9680.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. Weekly trend still leans bullish with Friday settle above 1.5555, and both the June and weekly setups point higher above 1.5620/10. Combined, those two factors are expected to force Euro higher this week. That said, Tuesday’s loss of bullish daily trend signals a near-term correction lower into the support base/buy zone at 1.5615/10 to 1.5555. Under there is intraweek drop to 1.5385. On the upside, resistance is an expiring May level at 1.5860, then weekly level at 1.6035 and June level at 1.6205. Look to buy 1.5620/1.5555 for 1.6035 target.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral with Tuesday’s pullback, signaling correction to weekly/June supports. The outside range leaves a widespread, neutral day setup. Resistance is 1.5755, 1.5815, 1.5835 and May level at 1.5860. Supports are 1.5635 and 1.5630, plus the developing June/weekly buy zone at 1.5620/10. Expecting a 1.5630 to 1.5755 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 50% long at 1.5620/10; 100% long at 1.5555 – stop on close under 1.5550. Target is 1.6035 this week. Day Trade: buy 1.5630/10; sell against 1.5815 and 1.5835.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Weekly trend is still bearish and presents the main resistance for the week at 1.0002. But the combined price action of the past couple days – Monday’s settle above the initial weekly/June zone at .9896/.9905 and Tuesday’s bullish turn in daily trend – relieves the pressure and signals a more neutral setup here. Upside targets are 1.0002 trend and 1.0055 above there. Support under .9905/.9896 is still deep at the May level of .9782 and Q2 level of .9700. Will reset shorts against 1.0002 for .9782/00 target.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. The battle today is between bullish daily trend at .9895 and the bearish weekly trend at 1.0002. The overall setup is neutral. Initial day hurdle is .9955, then 1.0020 and 1.0029. Supports are .9895 uptrend. .9873 and .9844. Projecting a .9895 to 1.0002 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after stopping the remainder of 1.0160 shorts on close above .9905. Reset to 50% short at 1.0002 weekly trend – stop on close above there. Day Trade: sell 1.0002 and 1.0029; buy .9895 and .9873.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend is still bullish in Aussie, but is clearly wavering at the Q2 target high of .9594/.9614. The setup for the week remains neutral overall, with risk spread evenly to both sides. Main resistance above there is .9731/50, then 1.0011. Supports under .9594 are weekly uptrend at .9492 to .9473/70, then the developing June trend base at .9360. Neutral daily trend favors a short-term backup to .9492/70. Still projecting a .9470 to .9731 week. Will sell .9731 on strength; wait to buy .9360 on weakness.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend failed to turn bullish Tuesday, and the resulting setup is neutral and balanced. Resistance today is .9620, .9646 and .9686 day extreme. Supports are .9580/65, .9540 day extreme, then weekly uptrend at .9492. Expecting a symmetrical day from .9620 to .9540.

Position Strategy: Current flat. Move to 50% short at .9731 – stop on close above .9750. On weakness, will wait to buy .9360 June trend support. Day Trade: sell against .9620/46; cover day shorts at .9540; buy .9492/70.

Published on  Wed, May 28 2008, 06:49 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Fri, May 23 2008, 06:07 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Still no overriding theme to the USD trade at this point. The most directional picture at this point is Euro, where weekly trend will lean bullish above 1.5570/45 next week and upside projects to 1.6035 for the week and 1.6205 for June. Will buy 1.5610/1.5570 there. Elsewhere, the intermediate pictures are either outright neutral – 102.12 to 105.51/106.10JPY and 1.0215/00 to 1.0570CH – or contingency-based like the situation in $/CAD where weekly trend is bearish, but offset by approaching May/Q2 supports at .9782 and .9700. Sterling is still a wildcard, with direction pivoting off 1.9870 or 1.9755/30.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral and the USD remains in a broad range trade between June support at 102.12 and Q2/Q3 resistance at 105.85/106.10. The developing weekly setup is neutral as well, with boundaries slightly tighter. Developing weekly resistance is 105.51, then 106.79. Supports are forming at 103.91, 102.75 and the 102.12 level. Expecting range action from 102.12 to 105.51/106.10. Strategy is to be patient to trade against both sides.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend flipped back to neutral from bearish with Thursday’s rally. The setup today is neutral and widespread. Resistance is 104.57, 105.06 and developing weekly level at 105.51. Supports are initial weekly level at 103.91, then 102.90/75. Expecting a sideways to higher day range from 103.91 to 105.06.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move 50% long at 102.12 developing June uptrend – stop on close under 102.00. On strength, move 25% short at 105.51; 50% short at 105.85/106.10 – stop on close above 106.20.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is expected to fall from bullish to neutral today, ending the 5-week uptrend and signaling a sideways-to-lower correction. The setup for next week looks evenly balanced. Resistance is forming at 1.0540, a fixed June level at 1.0570 and 1.0660. After an immediate weekly support at 1.0320, the main target below is developing June base at 1.0215/00, then drop to 1.0055. Expecting range action between June levels at 1.0200 and 1.0570 over the near term. Will set partial longs at 1.0215/00.

Daily Comments – Neutral. An awkward day, with trend still officially bearish, but larger upside than downside risk. Supports today are 1.0305 and daily/June buy zone at 1.021/00. Resistance above the 1.0330/40 daily downtrend jumps to 1.0455. Projecting a 1.0215 to 1.0455 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move 50% long at the 1.0215/00 June support – stop longs on close under 1.0175 May level for now. Day Trade: buy against 1.0215/00; exit day longs at 1.0455; wait to sell 1.0540/70 weekly/June zone.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Although direction moving forward remains uncertain, it is clear that the downtrend here is ending and failed to generate the expected breakdown this week. As it now stands, the situation for next week looks neutral. Resistance is June level at 1.9790, 1.9870, then 2.0065. Supports are combined June/weekly zone at 1.9755/30, then 1.9545. Projecting range action from 1.9545 to 1.9870 – but with neither of the boundaries reliable enough to trade against for now.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend remains bullish, but with upside today neutralized by the June/weekly levels at 1.9790 and 1.9870. First day level is 1.9980. Supports are 1.9725/15, the daily uptrend at 1.9695 and 1.9630. Expecting a 1.9715/1.9695 to 1.9870 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 100% short at 1.9780 average from Thursday. Cover ½ immediately. Stop the rest on close above 1.9800 or intraday break above 1.9870. Day Trade: buy against 1.9725/15 and 1.9695; exit day longs at 1.9870.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. Euro looks like the most direction pattern on the grid, with the cleanest buy structure. Although weekly trend is going to stay neutral, it will likely lean bullish above 1.5545 next week. The setup will point higher. The key zone for next week is forming at 1.5610 to 1.5570. Staying above there points minimally to the expiring May level at 1.5860, with weekly target at 1.6035 and the earliest June target at 1.6205. Supports under 1.5610/1.5570 are the 1.5545 weekly trend, then drop to 1.5345. Looking for a.1.5610/1.5570 to 1.6035 weekly range. Will set partial longs at 1.5610/1.5570.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is bullish, but with a more neutral setup after Thursday’s pullback. Initial support is the level that turns neutral under 1.5695/90, with weekly buy zone at 1.5610/1.5570 below there. Day resistance is 1.5765 and 1.5845/60. Expecting a 1.5610 to 1.5765 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 25% long at 1.5630/10 today; 50% long at 1.5570 – stop on close under 1.5550. Day Trade: buy against daily trend at 1.5630 and 1.5610/1.5570; sell 1.5860/90.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Weekly trend is set to turn formally bearish with any settle under 1.0070/88 today. But although the weekly (and June) setup points lower, the overall picture is neutralized by the expiring May level at .9782 and larger Q2 support at .9700. Key resistance for next week is the combined weekly/May zone at .9896/.9905 and the developing weekly trend at 1.0002/20. Bearish daily trend also intersects at .9876 today. Expecting .9700 to 1.0002 weekly range. Will add shorts at 1.0002/20; cover at .9782 and .9700.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is still bearish, but with an overall neutral and balanced setup today. Resistance is .9876/77 daily trend and combined weekly/June zone at .9896/.9905. Supports are day zone at .9828/24 and the May cover level at .9782. Expecting a .9876 to .9782 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% short at 1.0160/64. On strength, add to 50% short at 1.0002/20 – stop on close above 1.0020. Will cover shorts at .9782 and .9700. Day Trade: sell .9896/.9905; cover at .9828/24; buy .9782.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Aussie failed to hold above the Q2 breakout zone at .9594/.9614 Thursday, and the overall setup is back to neutral here despite the continuing weekly uptrend. Besides .9595/.9614, resistance for next week is .9731/50. Supports for next week are the developing weekly uptrend at .9475 and June base at .9360. The fact daily trend fell neutral Thursday signals a retreat to test .9475 weekly trend. No new position strategy for now.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral with Thursday’s backup, signaling a correction lower. The setup today is neutral. Resistance is .9586, the Q2 zone at .9594/.9614 and .9631/47. Supports are .95289/24 and the developing weekly uptrend at .9475. Looking for a.9586 to .9475 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat after stopping the .9594/.9601 shorts on the close above .9620. Will reset to 50% short at .9731 – stop on close above .9764 today. Day Trade: buy .9595/88 and .9572; exit at .9684; sell .9731.

Published on  Fri, May 23 2008, 06:07 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Thu, May 22 2008, 07:00 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The series of bearish daily trends in the USD are dictating the pace lower at this point. For the most part, those trends are driving the USD into key longer-term supports. Those supports are the highlight levels over the next two days at developing June trend of 102.12JPY, the comparable area at 1.0215/00 in $/Swiss, opposing June resistance at 1.9755/90 in Sterling (where June downside is open-ended below there) and May/Q2 supports at .9782/00CAD. The exceptions are Euro, which has space to run above developing weekly zone at 1.5610/1.5570, and Aus$, which is widespread neutral from .9475 to .9731/64.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Not a lot of new development this week. Weekly trend is neutral and expected to stay that way; the setup is largely balanced. The main driving force right now is bearish daily trend – projecting the downtrade to target either this week’s 102.82/53 zone or the more likely June support at 102.12. Resistance is daily trend level at 103.80, then developing weekly resistance eat 104.90. Expecting 102.12 to 104.90 range action over the n ear-term. Will set partial longs at 102.12.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish, but with an overall balanced setup. Downside is neutralized by the series of weekly/June levels at 102.82, 102.53 and 102.12. Day support is 102.88/68. Resistance is daily trend at 103.80/94, then 104.55. Expecting a two-way trade from 103.80/94 down to 102.88/68.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move 50% long at 102.12 developing June uptrend – stop on close under 102.00. Day Trade: sell against 103.80/94 daily trend; cover day shorts at 102.88/68; buy 102.12, if hit


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The fresh downturn in daily trend is forcing things lower here. With the break of the initial weekly support at 1.0365, the logical target is the developing June and May support base at 1.0215/00 to 1.0175. As long as that area holds, the overall intermediate setup remains neutral. Under there, however, turns into a more directional situation down to at least .9995. Resistance is a developing weekly level at 1.0445 and this week’s 1.0560/85 zone. Will set partial longs at the 1.0215/00 June zone.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily momentum is strongly bearish – but with more upside than downside risk to start the day. Supports are 1.0255 day level and the critical 1.0215/00 June buy zone. On the upside, there is no resistance until 1.0415/30 daily downtrend and 1.0555. Expecting a 1.0215 to 1.0415 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move 50% long at the 1.0215/00 June support – stop longs on close under 1.0175. Day Trade: sell 1.0415/30 daily trend; buy weakness to 1.0215/00 and 1.0190/75.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Weekly trend is still officially bearish, but can turn neutral with Friday settle above 1.9615/30 this week. The larger spotlight, however, is on the developing June zone at 1.9755/90. That is the pivotal force in terms o longer-term direction. Staying under there points down to 1.9545 and 1.9425 for next week, with nothing below until 1.9120 for June. Getting above 1.9800, however, sees resistance lift to at least 2.0075. Strategy is to reset shorts against 1.9755/90.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. The battle today is quite clearly between bullish daily trend at 1.9605/1.9590 and the larger June hurdle at 1.9755/90. A day level is also at 1.9770, along with a weekly breakout at 1.9815. Above 1.9815 is intraday jump to 1.9920. Expecting two-way, neutral action between 1.9605/1.9590 and 1.9755/70.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Will reset to 50% short at 1.975/70; 100% short at 1.9790 – stop on close above 1.9815 for today; lower to 1.9790 for Friday. Day Trade: buy 1.9605/1.9590; sell 1.9755/70 and 1.9790.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. The situation here is turning increasingly bullish. Weekly momentum is officially neutral, but with a bullish and open-ended setup forming for next week above 1.5610/1.5570. Any weekly close above there projects at least to the expiring May level at 1.5860, with no June resistance until 1.6065. Supports are bullish daily trend at 1.5630, the weekly zone at 1.5610/1.5570, then 1.5385/80. Still looking for a push to 1.5860 this week. Will set longs against 1.5610/1.5570.

Daily Comments – Bullish. Daily trend is bullish and the setup for the day has larger upside risk. Closest resistance is combined May/day zone at 1.5860/90, with weekly ell at 1.5905 above there. Supports are 1.5750, daily uptrend at 1.5630 and the developing weekly buy zone at 1.5610 to 1.5570. Projecting a 1.5630 to 1.5860 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 25% long at 1.5630/10 today; 50% long at 1.5570 – stop on close under 1.5550. Day Trade: buy against daily trend at 1.5630 and 1.5610/1.5570; sell 1.5860/90.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. The trend remains negative for the time being, with $/CAD still headed for either the expiring May level at .9782 or the Q2 level at .9700. There is a host of hurdles overhead. Resistance for next week starts with combined weekly/June zone at .9896/.9905 (June setup is openended below .9905), then developing weekly trend at 1.0020 and 1.0070/88. Strategy is to add shorts at .9896/.9905 for target to .9782 and .9700.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. The day setup is a battle between bearish daily trend (and weekly/June) resistance at .9883/94 to .9896/.9905 and the May target support at .9782. The closest day support is just behind there at .9766. Projecting a .9883/94 to .9782 range day.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% short at 1.0160/64. Add to 75% short at .9896/.9905 – stop new shorts only on close above .9905. Will cover existing shorts at .9782. Day Trade: sell .9883/94 and .9896/.9905; buy .9782/66.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Wednesday’s close above the Q2/weekly zone at .9595/.9614 – though it is still in play for now – skews the setup more bullish. Upside jumps minimally to a developing weekly level at .9731, with this week’s extreme at .9764. At the same time, other than bullish daily trend at .9572 today, supports are well back. The main area of support is an initial fixed June level at .9511 to the developing weekly uptrend at .9475. The new projected weekly high is .9731. Can reset partial shorts there; buy .9511/.9475.

Daily Comments – Bullish. Daily trend remains bullish and the setup points higher with the close above the Q2 zone at .9594/.964. Closest resistance today is .9684, with the fixed developing weekly level at .9531. Support are .9595/88, bullish daily trend at .9572 and June level at .9511. Expecting a .9588 to .9684 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat after stopping the .9594/.9601 shorts on the close above .9620. Will reset to 50% short at .9731 – stop on close above .9764 today. Day Trade: buy .9595/88 and .9572; exit at .9684; sell .9731.

Published on  Thu, May 22 2008, 07:00 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Wed, May 21 2008, 06:08 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

With yesterday’s USD weakness, daily momentum is now bearish in the USD vs every cross. That creates downside pressure against key long-term levels. Today’s focus is most likely on the battle between the new daily trends and these longer-term inflection points. The biggest battles are in Aussie with .9535 trend against .9595/.9614 Q2/weekly resistance; in Sterling from 1.9555 uptrend versus 1.9755/90 developing June monthly resistance; and $/CAD at .9938/42 daily trend against .9901 weekly breakdown level. Euro is expected to see upside follow-thru to its May level at 1.5860.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The main change Tuesday was the bearish turn in daily trend, likely forcing a rotation lower to the weekly and/or June support base. The main weekly focus below is 102.82, 102.53, with developing June trend at 102.12. Under there is drop to 100.73. Other than the daily downtrend at 104.12 today, resistance for the week remains 105.31, 105.54 (June) and 105.85/106.06 (Q2/May). Still looking for a 102.12 to 105.31/54 week. Will buy against 102.12; sell 105.54/106.06.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily momentum turned bearish Tuesday and the setup today points lower. Resistance is 103.76, 104.12/29 daily trend zone, then 104.82. Initial support is a day level at 103.21, with the main focus the weekly base at 102.82 to 102.53. The first buy zone on weakness is June support at 102.12. Expecting a 104.12/29 to 102.82 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, move 50% short at 105.54/70; 100% short at 105.85/106.06 – stop on close above 106.06. On weakness, move 50% long at 102.12 developing June uptrend – stop on close under 102.00.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The overall situation remains neutral here, but with some short-term negatives emerging for the USD – namely, the bearish turn in daily momentum and the first close under bullish weekly trend (at 1.0485) since late April. The immediate downside target is the weekly level at 1.0365. If broken, support drops to the developing June uptrend at 1.0215/00 and May level at 1.0175. Resistance for the week is still 1.0560/85, then the June/Q2/May zone at 1.0735/70. Will set partial longs at 1.0215/00.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily momentum is bearish, and the day setup points lower. But the initial weekly support at 1.0365 is neutral factor. Resistance today is 1.0415, daily trend at 1.0475 and 1.0500. Other than 1.0365, there is no support until 1.0305 and June buy zone at 1.0215/00. Expecting a 1.0475 to 1.0305 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, will wait to move to 50% short at 1.0735/65 – stop on close above 1.0770. On weakness, will move 50% long at the 1.0215/00 June support – stop longs on close under 1.0175.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Weekly trend is still officially bearish, but the rally above the level that turns it neutral at 1.9615/30 leaves a neutral setup. The focus above now shifts to the developing June trend zone at 1.9755 to 1.9790, along with a weekly extreme at 1.9815. That is an area to reset shorts against – but with upside risk beyond there. Supports are bullish daily trend at 1.9555, weekly level at 1.9485 and 1.9275. Strategy is to reset shorts at 1.9755/90.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. The day trade is a battle between freshly bullish daily trend at 1.9555 and the larger June resistance zone at 1.9755 to 1.9790. Above there is combined weekly/day zone at 1.9815/20. Under daily trend is drop to 1.9505 and 1.9485 weekly level. Projecting a 1.9555 to 1.9755 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Will reset to 50% short at 1.9755; 100% short at 1.9790 – stop on close above 1.9815. Day Trade: buy 1.9555 and 1.9505/1.9485; sell 1.9555 and 1.9790.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. Although weekly trend is still neutral, the main event yesterday was the close above the intraweek breakout resistance at 1.5605. Combined with the bullish turn in daily trend that projects a rally to the 1.5860 May level and 1.5905 weekly extreme. Supports are the daily uptrend at 1.5565, then weekly level at 1.5380 and fixed developing June level at 1.5270. Expecting a thrust to 1.5860/1.5905 rest of week.

Daily Comments – Bullish. Daily trend turned bullish Tuesday and the resulting setup points modestly to sharply higher today. Closest initial resistance is the day level at 1.5730, but with gap above there to nearest intermediate level at 1.5860. Supports are 1.5625, bullish daily trend at 1.5565 and 1.5510. Expecting a 1.5565 to 1.5730 day – with extension risk above there.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after stopping shorts on the intraday break above 1.5650. No new position trade for now. Day Trade: buy against 1.5565 trend; exit day longs at 1.5730; sell 1.5860/70, if hit.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. $/CAD continues to lean bearish in terms of trend, but is having a hard time sustaining a breakdown under the .9901 weekly level. Below there still sees drop to the May target at .9782 (with open-ended downside risk for June). Until then, however, the setup is more neutral with resistance at 1.0012 and current weekly trend zone at 1.0070/88. That trend area is slated to drop to +/-1.0025 for next week. Will sell 1.0070/88; wait to cover shorts at .9782.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is still bearish in $/CAD, but getting closer to turning neutral – above .9938/42 – as the downtrade stalls. The initial setup today is neutral from .9901 weekly level to .9938/42 trend. Under .9901 is drop to .9841, then .9782 May target. Above trend is jump to 1.0012/26. Expecting a .9942 to .9841 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% short at 1.0160/64. Add to 75% short at 1.0070/88 weekly trend. Stop shorts on close above 1.0100. The target is .9782 May level. Day Trade: wait to sell 1.0012/26; cover at .9841; buy .9782..


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Both weekly and daily trend remain bullish. But contact has been made with the primary Q2 and weekly resistance at .9594/.9601 to .9614. That area represents the target high for Q2 and the setup is neutral until cleared. If beaten, upside will jump to at least .9764 for the week. Support comes from bullish daily trend – at .9535 today, with weekly uptrend at .9417 and developing June trend at .9347/26 below there. Still projecting a .9601/14 to .9347 week. Hold new shorts against a close above .9614.

Daily Comments - Bullish to neutral. The day setup is a clear battle between time frames – bullish daily trend at .9535 versus the larger Q2/weekly area at .9594/.9614. The setup is neutral in between there. Above .9614 is intraday jump to .9676; under daily trend are additional day levels at .9519 and .9476. Expect a .9535/19 to .9614 day range.

Position Strategy: Current 50% short at .9594/.9601 – stop on close above .9620. Will cover at .9347/26. Day Trade: buy against daily trend at .9535/19; exit day longs at .9614.

Published on  Wed, May 21 2008, 06:08 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Tue, May 20 2008, 06:26 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

It is a hard-to-categorize day in the majors with daily trend in the USD leaning bearish vs JPY, Swiss, Sterling and Euro – yet all four have setups that favor USD strength today. The result is a wildcard kind of a day, but where a push to initial weekly hurdles at 105.31/54JPY, 1.0585CH and down to 1.5405/1.5380 in Euro is expected. Sterling failed at its weekly downtrend of 1.9615/30 Monday, and should retreat to 1.9275 this week. That leaves $/CAD and Aussie as the two trending markets – $/CAD needs to get under .9901 weekly level to accelerate to .9782, while Aussie faces its long-awaited Q2 target high at .9594/.9614.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend and weekly setup both remain neutral. More range action is expected over the week. Main resistance extends from the weekly area at 105.31/70 to the Q2/May sell zone at 105.85/106.06. A fixed June hurdle is also forming at 105.54. Above that entire area is jump to 108.29 this week. Supports are weekly base at 102.85/53, plus developing June trend at 102.12. Expecting 102.12 to 105.54/106.06 range action. Will trade against both sides.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is still neutral (though it can turn bearish with settle under 104.45 today). The day setup is neutral to modestly positive. Supports are 104.18 and 103.65, with weekly base at 102.85/53. There is no resistance until daily/weekly combo at 105.23/31, then June/weekly/Q2 sell zone at 105.54/70/85. Expecting a 103.65 to 105.23/31 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, move 50% short at 105.54/70; 100% short at 105.85/106.06 – stop on close above 106.06. On weakness, move 50% long at 102.12 developing June uptrend – stop on close under 102.00.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend remains officially bullish above 1.0485 this week, but with an effective neutral setup until the weekly hurdle at 1.0560/85 is cleared. The larger focus above – and sell structure - is the combined June/May/Q2 zone at 1.0735 to 1.0765/70. Supports for the week are 1.0425, 1.0365 and developing June trend zone at 1.0215/00. At this point, projecting a range trade from 1.0365 to 1.0585, with possible extension higher to 1.0735/70. Will wait to sell 1.0735/70.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is neutral (though it leans bearish) and the setup today is neutral. Supports are 1.0465, 1.0395 and 1.0295. Resistance is similarly scaled at the weekly zone of 1.0560/85, 1.0620 and 1.0705. Expecting a 1.0465 to 1.0585 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Will move to 50% short at 1.0735/65 – stop on close above 1.0770. On weakness, will move 50% long at the 1.0215/00 June support – stop longs on close under 1.0175.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Friday’s firm weekly settle turned out to be a bit of a head-fake as Sterling subsequently failed sharply off bearish weekly trend at 1.9615/30 Monday. The resulting close under the only near-term support at 1.9485 points lower. Supports for the week fall to 1.0275, then the Q2 level at 1.8975. Resistance his week is still 1.9615/20 trend and 1.9755/90 June sell zone. Still projecting a 1.9755 to 1.9275 weekly range. Strategy is to reset shorts at 1.9755/90.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend remains neutral, with a neutral to slightly negative setup following from yesterday’s backup. Resistance is 1.9510, 1.9540 and the combined weekly trend/day zone at 1.9615/30 to 1.9645. There is no support until 1.9375 and 1.9315. Projecting a 1.9540 to 1.9375 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Will reset to 50% short at 1.9755; 100% short at 1.9790 – stop on close above 1.9815. Day Trade: sell against 1.9540; cover day shorts at 1.9375.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend did turn neutral last week, signaling an upward rotation higher toward the 1.5860 May target. At the same time, the weekly setup starts out neutral under 1.5605 – a level that held on Monday’s initial uptick. For now, the situation is neutral from there back to weekly support at 1.5380 and fixed June level forming at 1.5270. Above 1.5605 sees minimum intraweek gap to 1.5860/1.5905. Still projecting a 1.5380 to 1.5860 weekly range. Hold existing shorts against 1.5605.

Daily Comments – Neutral. This is an awkward daily setup with trend actually positioned to turn bullish with settle above 1.5515, but the setup pointing lower under 1.5545. Resistance is 1.5545, weekly level at 1.5605 and 1.5665. There is no support until 1.5405 and day/weekly zone at 1.5385/80. Expecting a 1.5545 to 1.5405 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 75% short at 1.5525 average. Stop on close above 1.5605 or intraday break above 1.5650. Will cover 25% at 1.5380; rest at 1.5145/25 this week. Day Trade: sell against 1.5455; buy 1.5405/1.5380.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. The situation in $/CAD remains negative, with trend leaning bearish under 1.0070/88 and intraweek breakdown risk under the combined June/weekly zone at .9941/01. Monday’s trade saw .9901 hold, keeping things contained for the time being. If broken, however, the minimum drop below there is to .9782 May level (with the June setup open-ended lower below .9941). Resistance for the week is 1.0012, 1.0070/88 trend and 1.0211. Add shorts at 1.0070/88 to cover at .9782.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. The battle today is between bearish daily trend at .9981/83 and the weekly breakdown level at .9901. Under there is drop to .9847 for the day and larger May level at .9782 for the week. Resistance is .9960, .9981/83 trend and first weekly level at 1.0012. Expecting a .9981/83 to .9901 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% short at 1.0160/64. Add to 75% short at 1.0070/88 weekly trend. Stop shorts on close above 1.0100. The target is .9782 May level. Day Trade: sell .9981/83 and 1.0012; cover day shorts at .9901.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. No major changes Monday. Daily and weekly trend are still bullish and both point at a test of the major Q2 target high (and weekly zone) of .9594/.9601 to .9614. The larger setup is neutral as long as that sell zone holds. Above there is intraweek gap to .9764. Supports for the week are bullish weekly trend at .9417 and the larger developing June uptrend at .9347/26. Projecting a .9594/.9614 high back to .9347/26 weekly range. Will set shorts at .9594/.9614.

Daily Comments - Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is bullish, but with widespread and neutral setup today. Main support is the daily trend zone eat .9470/69. Under there is combined day/weekly zone at .9426/17. Resistance is .9569 and the Q2/weekly sell zone at .9594/.9601. Projecting a .9569 to .9470 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat. Move to 50% short at .9594/.9601 – stop on close above .9615. Target is .June uptrend at .9347/26. Day Trade: buy .9470/69 daily trend; exit at .9569; sell .9594/.9601.

Published on  Tue, May 20 2008, 06:26 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Mon, May 19 2008, 05:55 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Euro broke its weekly downtrend with the firm close Friday, signaling a successful hold of bullish monthly trend at 1.5345 and a likely rotation higher to May resistance at 1.5860. Sterling managed to stay trend down on its weekly chart, but failed to breakdown given the opportunity last week. The result is an initially neutral setup from 1.9485 to 1.9615/30 downtrend, with possible test to 1.9755/90 June zone. Interesting trades brewing in both $/CAD and Aussie. $/CAD leans bearish under 1.0070/88, with June/weekly breakdown level at .9941/01; Aussie is trend up above .9417, with its major Q2 (and weekly) target at .9594/.9614.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Officially, weekly momentum leans bearish with a Friday settle under 104.12 this week. But the setup is evenly balanced and a wide, two-way trade is expected. Main support is a trio of weekly and developing June uptrend levels at 102.82, 102.59/53 and 102.12. Other than the 104.12 weekly trend hurdle, there is nothing above until 105.31 and weekly/Q2/May zone at 105.70/85 to 106.06. Projecting a 105.31/70 to 102.12 weekly range. Will set partial longs against 102.12; will still sell 105.85/106.06.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral Friday. The extent of weakness leaves an outright negative setup. Resistance is 104.34, 104.85 and first weekly level at 105.31. First support is combined weekly/daily/May zone at 102.82/70/53. Expecting a 104.34 down to 102.82/70 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, will wait to move 75% short at 105.70/85/106.06 – stop on close above 106.06. On weakness, move 50% long at 102.12 developing June uptrend – stop on close under 102.00.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is still officially bullish in $/Swiss, but definitely slowing. It can turn neutral with settle under 1.0485 this week. The setup is neutral as well. Resistance is 1.0560/85 and the combined May/Q2 (and additional June level) up at 1.0735 to 1.0765/70. Supports are 1.0425, 1.0365 and the developing June trend support at 1.0215/00. Projecting a range week from 1.0560 to 1.0365, with possible test to 1.0215/00. Strategy is to wait to sell 1.0735/70; wait to buy 1.0215/00.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral Friday. The setup today leans modestly lower. Resistance is 1.0480, 1.0530 and the combined weekly/day zone at 1.0560/85. Supports are the first weekly level at 1.0425, then 1.0380 day level. Expecting a 1.0530 to 1.0425 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Will move to 50% short at 1.0735/65 – stop on close above 1.0765. On weakness, will move 50% long at the 1.0215/00 June support – stop longs on close under 1.0175.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Sterling was a bit of a disappointment last week, as the downtrend was never able to force a decisive break and left an overall neutral setup. At the same time, weekly momentum is still bearish under 1.9615/30 this week and the setup for June is open-ended lower under 1.9755/90. Resistance for the week is 1.9615/30 weekly trend, 1.9755/90 and 1.9815. Support is initial level at 1.9485, then drops to 1.9275 and 1.8975 Q2 level. Expecting a 1.9755 to 1.9275 week. Will resell a bounce to 1.9755/90 to 1.9815.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend turned from bearish to neutral Friday. The setup today leans bullish – but faces the weekly downtrend at 1.9615/30. Supports are 1.9530 and weekly/day zone at 1.9485/65. Resistance is 1.9615/30 zone and 1.9695. Projecting a 1.9485 to 1.9615 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after stopping shorts on the close above 1.9485 Friday. Will reset to 50% short at 1.9755; 100% short at 1.9790 – stop on close above 1.9815. Day Trade: buy 1.9485/65; sell 1.9615/30 weekly trend.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly momentum turned from bearish to neutral, signaling a hold above bullish monthly trend at 1.5345 and a correction higher to May resistance at 1.5860. The weekly setup, however, starts out neutral. Supports are 1.5380, fixed May level at 1.5270 and 1.5145/25. The initial resistance is 1.5605, but with gap above there to 1.5860 and 1.5905 weekly extreme. Looking for a two-way week from 1.5380 to 1.5860. Hold existing shorts against 1.5605 – a close above there turns more positive.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Friday’s rally prevented a bearish turn in daily trend and leaves a neutral to modestly day bullish setup. Supports are 1.5535, 1.5450 and combined weekly level/day extreme at 1.5380/75. Resistance is the initial weekly breakout at 1.5605 and day level at 1.5645, before rising. Projecting a 1.5450 to 1.5645 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 75% short at 1.5525 average. Lower stop to close above 1.5605 or intraday break above 1.5650. Will cover 25% at 1.5380; rest at 1.5145/25 this week. Day Trade: buy weakness to 1.5450 and 1.5380/75; exit longs at 1.5645.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. Weekly momentum leans bearish with settle under 1.0070/88 this Friday and the setup for the week does lean lower. But a developing June support at .9941 and an initial weekly level at .9901 keep things somewhat contained for now. A break under .9900 sees minimum drop to the May target at .9782. Resistance this week is 1.0012, the trend zone at 1.0070/88 and 1.0211. Projecting a 1.0070 to .9782 week. Will add/hold shorts against 1.0070/88.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend is still bearish to start the week, and the setup today leans lower. Resistance is combined daily trend and first weekly zone at 1.0009/12, 1.0045 and 1.0066/70. Main support is the developing June level at .9941, with .9909/01 under there. Expecting a 1.0012 to .9941 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% short at 1.0160/64. Add to 75% short at 1.0070/88 weekly trend. Stop shorts on close above 1.0100. The target is .9782 May level. Monday Day Trade: sell against 1.0009/12; buy .9941.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Although weekly trend stayed bullish with the strong finish Friday, the outside range and the presence of the Q2 resistance zone at .9594/.9614 makes for an overall neutral setup this week. The main resistance is the combined Q2 target high and weekly level .9594/.9601 to .9614. Above there is jump to .9764. Main supports are bullish weekly trend at .9417 and the developing June uptrend at .9347/26. Projecting a .9594/9614 high and retreat to .9347. A push above .9614 is bullish. Strategy is to set shorts against .9594/.9614.

Daily Comments - Bullish to neutral. Daily trend did reverse bullish with Friday’s rally – but is offset by the Q2/weekly resistance at .9594/.9601 to .9614. The first day hurdle isn’t until .9686. Supports for the day are .9505 and bullish daily (and weekly) trend at .9421/10 (.9417). Projecting a .9505 to .9594 day range.

Position Strategy: Current flat. Will move to 50% short at .9594/.9601 – stop on close above .9615. Target is .June uptrend at .9347.26. Day Trade: sell against .9594/.9601 and .9614; buy .9505 and .9421/10 (separately).

Published on  Mon, May 19 2008, 05:55 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Fri, May 16 2008, 06:24 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

In terms of the front and center trades, the focus is on Sterling and $/CAD. Though the pace of the decline in Sterling has been somewhat inconsistent, the downtrend has done nothing wrong. Staying under 1.5485 keeps weekly trend bearish and the setup for next week open-ended lower to May support at 1.8975. Same story in $/CAD, where bearish weekly trend (1.0093) and open-ended risk under 1.0013 points to its May support at .9782. $/JPY remains neutral, with Q2/May sell zone at 105.85/106.06; the comparable sell zone in $/CH is higher at 1.0735/65; Euro needs to get out5side 1.5620 or 1.5345/40 to move.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is going to stay neutral here, as is the weekly setup. Resistance for next week is forming at 105.32, plus the still present Q2/May sell zone at 105.85/106.06. Supports for the week are 103.17, May level at 102.598 and 101.29. Daily trend is also still bullish, but can turn neutral under 104.74 today. Nothing too sexy here – still looking for 105.85/106.06 to 102.59 range trade. Will set shorts on push to 105.85/106.06.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is still officially trend up from Wednesday, but offset above by weekly/longer-term resistance. The day setup is neutral. Resistance is 105.15, developing weekly level at 105.31 and Q2 sell level at 105.85. Supports today are 104.46, 104.19 and 103.61. The uptrend ends under 104.74. Expecting a 105.15/31 to 104.19 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, will wait to move 75% short at 105.85/106.06 – stop on close above 106.06. Day Trade: sell 105.19/31 and 105.85/106.00; cover day shorts at 104.19 and 103.61.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/Swiss has managed to hold above the level that keeps weekly trend bullish at 1.0410 this week. But the inside weekly range leaves a non-committal, breakout-type setup forming for next week. Weekly resistance is 1.0585, with effective jump above there to the May/Q2 sell zone at 1.0735/65. Main support is forming at 1.0390, before drop-off to the monthly base at 1.0175. No change in strategy at this point – until weekly trend falls neutral, will wait to sell a thrust to 1.0735/65.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend did turn bullish Thursday. But the developing weekly hurdle at 1.0585 makes for an initially neutral setup. A key day level is also at 1.0580/85, before jump to 1.0665. Supports today are 1.0480 and 1.0455, with daily uptrend at 1.0535. Expecting a 1.0480 to 1.0585 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Will move to 50% short at 1.0735/65 – stop on close above 1.0765. Day Trade: sell against 1.0580/85; go with action above 1.0600; cover day shorts at 1.0480 and 1.0455.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Although Sterling is declining at a begrudging pace, the trend has done nothing wrong. Weekly momentum will stay bearish and the setup for next week is openended lower under 1.9480/85. The closest fixed support under there isn’t until the Q2 level at 1.8975. Resistance above 1.9485 is developing weekly trend at 1.9635, then jump to 1.9815. Still looking for an eventual breakdown to 1.8975 target. Add shorts against 1.9485 today; if stopped, will reset at 1.9635 next week.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is officially bearish, but with an initially neutral setup. Resistance is the weekly level at 1.9485 and 1.9510/15, then weekly trend at 1.9635. Supports are 1.9420 and 1.9335. Trend turns neutral with close above 1.9455. Projecting a 1.9510/15 to 1.9335 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% short at 1.9605. Add to 50% short at 1.9510/15today – stop all shorts on close above 1.9485. If stopped, will reset at 1.9635. Day Trade: sell against 1.9485 and 1.9510/15; cover day shorts at 1.9335.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Weekly trend will stay bearish with any settle under 1.5555 today. But the inside range this week leaves a breakout-type setup for next week with risk seen outside initial boundaries to both sides. Weekly resistance is forming at 1.5545 and 1.5620, then jumps to 1.5855/60. Main support is May uptrend/weekly level at 1.5345/40, then drops to 1.5145/25. Based on the trend direction, still expecting a breakout to the downside. Hold existing shorts against 1.5620 for today; target still 1.5125.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend can turn bearish with settle under 1.5470 today. The setup is neutral to bearish. Resistance is 1.5470, 1.5520, and developing weekly levels at 1.5545 and 1.5620. Supports are 1.5390 and the day/weekly breakdown level at 1.5355/40. Expecting a 1.5520 to 1.5355/40 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 75% short at 1.5525 average. Stop on close above 1.5620 today. The target to cover is 1.5125 May level. Day Trade: sell 1.5515 and 1.5545; cover day shorts at 1.5355/40.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bearish. The situation is turning increasingly bearish here, as weekly trend will lean bearish under 1.0093 next week, and the setup is a hair from turning open-ended lower under 1.0012. Resistance for next week is forming at 1.0012 and 1.0090/93, before jump to 1.0211. There is no fixed support under 1.0012 until the May level at .9782. Daily trend is also bearish under 1.0026/28 today. Strategy is to add/hold shorts against 1.0093 for .9782 target.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend is still bearish, with larger downside than upside risk today. Daily trend intersects at 1.0026/28, with additional day zone at 1.0047/59 and weekly trend zone at 1.0090/93. Lone nearby support is .9990, before drop to .9917. Expecting a 1.0028 to .9917 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 25% short at 1.0160/64 after covering ½ at .9958 on Wednesday. Reset to 75% short at 1.0090/93 developing weekly trend. Stop on close above 1.0100. The target is .9782 May level.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Whether or not weekly trend turns officially neutral with close under .9391 today, the setup for next week looks neutral and widespread. Resistance is forming at the May/weekly zone at .9472/92 and Q2 sell level at .9594. Supports are equally widespread at .9305, May uptrend/weekly zone at .9253/42 and .9120. Daily trend is neutral in between and not a factor today. Expecting a.9472/92 to .9253/42 range action over the next week. Will wait to sell .9594, however.

Daily Comments - Neutral. Daily trend turned neutral with the surging close Thursday. The day setup is neutral as well. Main resistance is the May/daily/weekly zone at .9472/73 to .9492, with .9532 above there. Supports are .9346, first weekly level at .9305 and .9278 day extreme. Expecting a range day from .9472 to .9346.

Position Strategy: Current flat. Will move to 50% short at .9594 – stop on close above .9614. Day Trade: sell against .9472/73 to .9492; cover day shorts at .9346 and .9305.

Published on  Fri, May 16 2008, 06:24 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Wed, May 14 2008, 06:21 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The firmness in the USD reasserted itself Tuesday. Daily downtrends turned neutral vs both JPY and Swiss; Euro and Sterling both failed off weekly downtrends at 1.5520/55 and 1.9680; with Sterling also closing under its May/weekly breakdown level at 1.9480, leaving it vulnerable to acceleration lower to 1.9290 for the week and 1.8975 for May (but its day setup is neutral). $/JPY and $/Swiss are expected to see upside follow-thru to weekly zones at 105.53/66JPY and 1.0630CH. Elsewhere, $/CAD has quietly turned trend on the day chart (1.0062/78 today) and is going to pressure its weekly breakpoint at .9963/58 today.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/JPY stormed back above the initial weekly resistance at 104.12 yesterday. But weekly trend is still neutral from last week’s downturn and the setup is balanced due to weekly/Q2/May resistance from 105.53/66 to 105.85/106.06. That is now the likely target high for the week. Supports this week remain weekly/May zone at 102.68/59 and 101.91. The new expected weekly high is 105.53/66. Will reset shorts against 105.85/106.06.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily momentum turned from bearish to neutral Tuesday, signaling a more forceful correction back to the weekly/Q2 sell zone at 105.53/66 to 105.85/106.06. First day resistance is 105.62. Supports for the day are 104.29 and 103.86/64. Expecting upside follow-thru from the rally – 104.29 to 105.53/66 day range.

Position Strategy:
Currently flat. On strength, will wait to move 25% short at 105.53/66; 75% short at 105.85/106.06 – stop on close above 106.06. Day Trade: buy against 104.29 and 103.86/64; sell 105.52/66 and 105.85.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Yesterday’s rally both turned daily trend neutral and closed above the pivotal weekly zone at 1.0430/70. That removes the pressure off the USD and allows an intraweek rally to 1.0630. It should be noted that unlike $/JPY, weekly trend here is officially still bullish with no longer-term resistance until the May/Q2 zone at 1.0735/65. Supports under 1.0410 weekly trend does still drop to 1.0200 and 1.0175 May level. The new projected weekly high is 1.0630. Will wait to reset shorts at 1.0735/65.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend flipped from bearish back to neutral with the rally. More importantly, the settle above the pivotal weekly zone at 1.0430/70 allows for upside followthru. Resistance today is 1.0590, then the upper weekly level at 1.0630. Supports are staggered at 1.0505, 1.0460/35 and 1.0375. Expecting a 1.0460 to 1.0590 day range.

Position Strategy:
Currently flat after stopping shorts on the close above 1.0470. Will reset to 50% short at 1.0735/65 – stop on close above 1.0765. Day Trade: buy 1.0460/35; exit day longs at 1.0590 and 1.0630.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. The main event yesterday was the settle under the May – and intraweek – breakdown level at 1.9480. In the intermediate term, that points to 1.9290 for the week and 1.8975 for May. In the short-tern, however, Monday’s neutral upturn in daily momentum results in a crowded downside support base for the day. Resistance for the week remains 1.9605, 1.9680 and bearish weekly trend at 1.9730. Still looking for a trade to 1.9290 or lower this week. Will add/hold shorts against 1.9680.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. The close under the May breakdown level at 1.9480 does point lower. But neutral daily trend and setup creates more a balanced day setup to start. Day supports are 1.9440 and 1.9400, before drop to weekly base at 1.9290. Resistance is 1.9535, 1.9605/10 and weekly level at 1.9680. Expecting a 1.9535 to 1.9400 day range.

Position Strategy:
Currently 25% short at 1.9605 from Monday. Add to 50% short at 1.9680 – stop on close above 1.9730. Day Trade: sell 1.9535 and 1.9605/10; also go with break under 1.9400 for acceleration to 1.9290.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. The inside range to this point in the week hasn’t resolved anything in the battle between monthly uptrend at 1.5345 and weekly downtrend at 1.5520/55. Although the weekly downtrend at 1.5520/55 hold Mon/Tues, daily trend complicated things by turning bullish yesterday. The simplest way to look at the market is to view it by boundaries. The key resistance boundary is 1.5555 weekly trend – with gap above to 1.5810/30. The key support boundary is 1.5345 – with drop to 1.5190/25 under there. Hold shorts against 1.5555.

Daily Comments – Neutral. One of those awkward days, where trend turned officially bullish, but the setup is neutral to bearish due to the weak close. Resistance is 1.5490, 1.5525 and 1.5560 (plus weekly downtrend at 1.5520 to 1.5555). There is no support until 1.5390 and 1.5345 May breakdown. Projecting a 1.5520/25 to 1.5390 day range.

Position Strategy:
Currently 75% short at 1.5525 average. Stop on close above 1.5555 or intraday break above 1.5590. The target to cover is 1.5190 and 1.5125. Day Trade: sell 1.5520/25 and 1.5555/60; cover day shorts at 1.5390 and 1.5345.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/CAD remained under its initial weekly support at 1.0045 yesterday, turning daily trend bearish in addition. The result is expected to be increased pressure on the weekly breakdown support at .9963 as early as today. Under there sees drop to May level at .9782. Resistance for the week is 1.0062 daily trend, 1.0164 weekly level and 1.0244/48 weekly/May zone. Hold existing shorts against 1.0110; will cover a position at .9963, but hold rest for .9782.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend did successfully turn bearish Tuesday. The setup today points lower. Resistance is 1.0032, daily trend zone at 1.0062/78 and day extreme at 1.0134. There is no support until the combined weekly/day zone at .9963/58. Under there is gap to .9874. Projecting a down day from 1.0062 to .9963/58.

Position Strategy:
Currently 50% short at 1.0160/64. Stop on close above 1.0110. Cover ½ the short at .9963; hold the rest. Day Trade: sell 1.0032 and 1.0062/78; cover day shorts at .9963/58.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Aussie remains an awkward weekly setup – still managing to hang just above bullish weekly trend at .9408/.9391, but unable to make any headway higher above the initial May hurdle at .9472. That is still the battle for the week. Above .9472 sees gap to the larger Q2 sell zone at .9594/.9614. Under .9391 weekly trend sees drop to weekly base and monthly trend at .9278/53. Strategy for now remains to wait to sell .9594/.9614.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend is still neutral, with no clear bias either way today. Main resistance is the combined daily/May zone at .9462/72, with gap to .9594 sell level above. Main support is weekly uptrend/day base at .9391/73, with drop to .9294 below. Projecting a .9462/72 to .9373 day – but with extension risk outside either end.

Position Strategy:
Current flat. Will move to 50% short at .9594 – stop on close above .9614. Day Trade: sell against .9462/72; cover day shorts at .9391/73.

Published on  Wed, May 14 2008, 06:21 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Tue, May 13 2008, 06:12 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

Monday’s twitchiness in the USD hasn’t impacted the weekly situations to this point. Any follow-thru today is expected to be limited by larger weekly levels – the weekly trend resistance at 104.12JPY; the weekly pivot at 104.30/70CH (with intraweek risk to 1.0200/1.0175 below); the 1.9680/1.9730 weekly downtrend in Sterling; and more aggressive weekly trend area at 1.5520/55 in Euro. The biggest potential for follow-thru outside is in Euro, with intraweek gap above 1.5555 trend to 1.5810/60. $/CAD leans bearish under 1.0086/96 today and can spill under weekly breakdown level at .9963.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Nothing particularly new here. Weekly trend did turn neutral last week, signaling a correction lower. At the same time, the initial May support at 102.59 (and weekly level at 102.68) has forced a near-term bounce. The overall situation is neutral. Resistance for the week is 104.12, 105.53/66 and the Q2/May sell zone at 105.85/106.06. Support under the 102.68/59 zone drops to 101.91. Expecting a 104.12 to 101.91 week – but will no longer sell 104.12, given the drop in daily trend below there.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Despite the rally Monday, daily trend stayed officially bearish. The setup today is neutral, however. Resistance is combined day/weekly level at 104.12, 104.52 and 105.51. Supports are 103.03, plus combined May/day zone at 102.59/53. Expecting a two-way day from 103.03 to 104.12.

Position Strategy:
Currently flat. On strength, will wait to move 25% short at 105.53/66; 75% short at 105.85/106.06 – stop on close above 106.06. Day Trade: sell 104.12 and 104.52; cover day shorts at 103.03 and 102.59/53.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The only change yesterday was the bearish turn in daily trend, ratcheting up the pressure for a trade lower this week. The weekly chart remains interesting, with trend still officially bullish, but the setup pointing lower from 1.0430/70 to 1.0200 to 1.0175/65. The daily downtrend also intersects at 1.0470 today, before intraweek jump to 1.0630. Supports are 1.0200 and May/weekly zone at 1.0175/70, before drop to .9995. Hold existing shorts against 1.0470 to cover at 1.0200/1.0175.

Daily Comments – Bearish. Daily trend turned bearish and both day resistance levels match up with the key weekly levels at 1.0430/35 and 1.0470 daily trend. An additional day level is at 1.0505. The lone support today is 1.0295, with nearest weekly level at 1.0200. Projecting a 1.0470 to 1.0295.

Position Strategy:
Currently 50% short at 1.0487 average after selling 1.0470 and 1.0505 Monday. Stop on close above 1.0470 today. The target is 1.0200/1.0175. Day Trade: sell 1.0470; cover day shorts at 1.0295.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Weekly trend remains bearish, with a potentially negative setup for the week. But Monday’s neutral upturn in daily trend does signal a short-term test higher to weekly resistance. The initial weekly level is at 1.9605; the larger target is the weekly downtrend at 1.9680 to 1.9730. If that is cleared, the pressure abates and resistance jumps to 1.9950. Lone nearby support is May breakdown level at 1.9480, then drop to 1.9290. Will look to add shorts at 1.9680 and 1.9730.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum turned from bearish to neutral yesterday. The outside range leaves a balanced setup. Day resistance is 1.9635 and 1.9700, plus weekly sell levels at 1.9680 and 1.9730. Supports are 1.9540, 1.9480 and 1.9440/25. Looking for a 1.9635 to 1.9480 day range.

Position Strategy:
Currently 25% short at 1.9605 from Monday. Add to 50% short at 1.9680; 75% short at 1.9730 – stop on close above 1.9730. Day Trade: sell 1.9680/1.9700 and 1.9730; cover day shorts at 1.9480 and 1.9440/25.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Euro ended up staying – just narrowly – under bearish weekly trend at 1.5540/55 yesterday. But bullish-leaning daily trend (above 1.5440) is expected to challenge that area once again today. Resistance above 1.5555 jumps sharply for the week to 1.5810/30 and May level at 1.5860. Supports for the week are still 1.5345 monthly uptrend, then 1.5190 and 1.5125. The focus today is on 1.5555 – will hold new shorts against there; but above turns more bullish.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. The day is a battle between bullish leaning daily trend at 1.5440 and bearish weekly trend at 1.5555. The setup starts out neutral between there. Above 1.5555 is jump to 1.5650, then 1.5745. Support under 1.5440 drops to May breakdown level at 1.5345, then 1.5190. Expecting a 1.5440 to 1.5555 day range – with risk outside either end.

Position Strategy:
Currently 75% short at 1.5525 average after selling 1.5505, 1.5520 and 1.5555 yesterday. Stop on close above 1.5555. The target to cover is 1.5190 and 1.5125. Day Trade: buy against 1.5440 and 1.5345; sell 1.5555.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The weekly situation is still neutral, but with pressure building once again. Daily trend can turn bearish with settle under 1.0086/96 today and Monday saw the USD close under initial weekly support at 1.0045. Below there points to .9963 for the week, before drop-off to .9782 May target. Besides daily trend, resistance is 1.0164, weekly/May zone at 1.0244/48 and 1.0317. Still projecting a 1.0164 to .9963 week – but with increased risk below there. Will cover part of the short at .9963.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend leans bearish with settle under 1.0096 today and the setup for the day is neutral to negative. Day supports are 1.0038 and 1.0002, with the weekly target at .9963. Resistance above 1.0086/96 is the weekly level at 1.0164. Looking for a 1.0086/96 to .9963 day range.

Position Strategy:
Currently 50% short at 1.0160/64. Lower stop to close above 1.0096 daily trend today. Cover ½ the short at .9963. Day Trade: sell 1.0086/96; cover at shorts at 1.0002 and .9870.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. The key to the week remains the bullish weekly trend at .9408/.9391. Despite the intraday test under there Monday, the rebound and close back above keeps an upward bias. The May level at .9472 ended up holding Monday, but the main target for the week is the Q2/May sell zone at .9594/.9614. Under .9391 weekly trend sees drop to .9278/53 and .9210 weekly extreme. Strategy remains to wait to sell .9594/.9614.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend stayed neutral with the rally yesterday, and the outside range leaves a widespread, neutral setup. Resistance today is .9488/.9501 and .9576. The larger sell level is the Q2 area at .9594/.9614. Supports are .9421, weekly uptrend at .9408/.9391 and .9364. Expecting a .9408 to .9488/.9501 day range.

Position Strategy:
Current flat. Will move to 50% short at .9594 – stop on close above .9614. Day Trade: buy weakness against .9421/08 and .9391; exit day longs at .9488/.9501; sell .9576/94.

Published on  Tue, May 13 2008, 06:12 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Mon, May 12 2008, 07:34 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

A mixed message coming out of last week, as the USD rallies vs JPY and Swiss are stalling (weekly trend fell neutral in $/JPY; setup points lower in $/Swiss), while weekly trends in Sterling and Euro are now bearish and point lower. The main focus centers on Sterling, where weekly trend/sell structure is at 1.9680/1.9730, and there is breakdown risk under May level at 1.9480. In Euro, the comparable weekly trend resistance is 1.5520/55. In $/JPY, weekly trend did fall neutral, but last week’s outside range should mute downside follow-thru – expecting a 104.12 to 101.91 week. $/Swiss is seen testing back to its May support at 1.0175.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend fell from bullish to neutral last week. The outside range on the weekly chart – combined with the initial May support at 102.59 – leaves a neutral setup. Supports are weekly/May zone at 102.68/59 and 101.91, with a second May level deeper at 100.73. Resistance is 104.12 and 105.53/66, with the Q2/May zone at 105.85/106.06. Daily trend is bearish under 104.05 today. Expecting a 104.12 to 101.91 weekly range. Will sell 104.05/12 (especially on Monday).

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend is bearish – but with downside neutralized by both the weekly/May zone at 102.68/59 and high trend resistance. Below there is drop to 101.91 and 101.68. Resistance is well above closing levels at combined daily trend/weekly sell zone of 104.05/15. Projecting a 102.59 to 104.05 day – with some modest risk under 102.59.

Position Strategy:
Currently flat. On strength, move 50% short at 104.05/15 today – stop on close above 104.12. Day Trade: sell 104.05/15 and 104.46; cover day shorts at 102.68/59; buy dip to 101.91.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Although weekly trend did manage to stay bullish here, Friday’s soft close near the weekly lows leaves a neutral to negative setup. Main resistance is 1.0430 to 1.0470 – plus bearish-leaning daily trend at 1.0505 – with jump above there to 1.0630. There are no supports until 1.0200 and the combined May/weekly extreme at 1.0175/70. Under there is drop to .9995. Projecting a 1.0470 to 1.0175 weekly range – but with a more neutral bias above 1.0470. Will set partial shorts at 1.0470/1.0505 Monday.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend can turn bearish with settle under 1.0505 today. The day setup points outright lower. Resistance is day/weekly zone at 1.0415/30, second weekly level at 1.0470 and 1.0495/1.0505 trend. There is no support until 1.0285. Expecting a 1.0430 to 1.0285 day range.

Position Strategy:
Currently flat. On strength, move 25% short at 1.0470; 50% at 1.0505. Stop on close above 1.0505. The target is 1.0200/1.0175 this week. Day Trade: be better seller at 1.0430, 1.0470 and 1.0495/1.0505; day target is 1.0285.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Weekly trend is bearish and the setup for the week points lower. Resistance is 1.9605, 1.9680 and bearish trend level at 1.9730, before upside jumps to 1.9905. Bearish daily trend is also at 1.9550 on Monday. The lone nearby support is the May breakdown zone at 1.9480. Although it held Friday, there remains a drop-off under there to 1.9290 for the week and 1.8975 for Q2. Expecting a 1.9680 to 1.9290 weekly range. Will scale into shorts at 1.9680/1.9730, or on weakness with break/close under 1.9480.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Today’s setup is a battle between bearish daily trend – at 1.9550 today – versus the May breakdown level at 1.9480. Under there is day support at 1.9410, then drop to 1.9290. Resistance is 1.9530/50 and first weekly level at 1.9605. Looking for a 1.9550 to 1.9410 day range.

Position Strategy:
Currently flat. On strength, move 25% short at 1.9605; 75% short at 1.9680; 100% short at 1.9730 – stop on close above 1.9730. On weakness, move 50% short on close under 1.9480 (limit 1.9440).


European Currency

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Weekly trend did turn bearish last week, but failed to break under bullish monthly trend at 1.5345. As a result, the initial setup for the week is neutral with the same battle between time frames as last week. Resistance is 1.5495, 1.5520 and weekly trend level at 1.5555. Above there is gap to 1.5810/30. Main support is the May trend at 1.5345, with drop under there to 1.5190 and May level at 1.5125. Based on the weekly downtrend, projecting a 1.5555 to 1.5190 week – but with risk above 1.5555. Will sell 1.5520/55 for 1.5190/25 target.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend did turn neutral from bearish with Friday’s rally. But the trio of weekly levels at 1.5495, 1.5520 and the 1.5555 downtrend makes for a neutral setup. Day hurdles are also at 1.5505 and 1.5555. Day supports are 1.5445 and 1.5465/50. Expecting a 1.5505/20 to 1.5365 day range.

Position Strategy:
Currently flat. Will reset to 25% short at 1.5495/1.5505; 50% short at 1.5520; 75% short at 1.5555. Stop on close above 1.5555. Day Trade: sell 1.5505 and 1.5520; cover day shorts at 1.5445.

Published on  Mon, May 12 2008, 07:34 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Fri, May 9 2008, 13:08 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW:

The spotlight today is on Sterling, where weekly trend is going to turn bearish - 1.9740/45 for next week – the developing weekly setup is open-ended lower under 1.9605 and the market has a triple breakpoint (intraday/weekly/May) at 1.9480. Getting under there sees drop to 1.9270 for today and 1.8925 for rest of May. Euro has a less dramatic downside bias, but will turn weekly trend bearish today and can see extension lower under 1.5345 monthly uptrend. Elsewhere, $/JPY has softened and bearishleaning daily trend (under 104.56) likely signals backup to developing weekly/May support at 102.60/59.


JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is in danger of turning neutral with settle under 103.86 today. As a result, the setup for next week is increasingly neutral, and a larger correction to monthly supports is possible. Developing weekly resistance is 105.40/53, the key Q2/May sell zone at 105.85/106.06, then jumps to 107.86. Main support is combined weekly/May level at 102.60/59, with drop to 100.73 under there. Strategy remains to set shorts against the 105.85/106.06 area.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend can turn bearish with settle under 104.56 today, and the setup points lower. Resistance is 104.17/35, 104.56 daily trend and 105.26. There is no support of any kind until weekly/May zone at 102.60/59. The first day level is 102.36. Projecting a down day from 104.17/35 to 102.60/59.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, move 25% short at 105.40/53; 75% short at 105.85/106.06 – stop on close above 106.06. Day Trade: be better seller at 104.17/35 and 104.56 trend; buy weakness to 102.60/59.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend will likely stay bullish here, but the setup for next week looks neutral. Resistance is 1.0570 and 1.0630, with the larger May/Q2 sell zone still higher up at 1.0735/65. The key focus below today is on the developing weekly uptrend level at 1.0410. A break below there signals a larger magnitude downside correction and sees drop-off in support to 1.0205 for the week and 1.0175 for May. Strategy remains to wait to sell 1.0735/65 for now.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum fell neutral Thursday, and the setup today is neutral with the battle between developing weekly levels at 1.0410 uptrend and 1.0570 initial resistance. Day hurdles are also at 1.0525 and 1.0565. Supports are 1.0460 and 1.0435. Expecting a 1.0565/70 to 1.0410 day.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, move 50% short at 1.0735; 100% short at 1.0765. Stop on close above 1.0765. Day Trade: sell 1.0565/70 and 1.0630/45; cover shorts at 1.0410 developing weekly uptrend.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. The situation in Sterling is increasingly bearish, with weekly trend turning bearish today and the setup for next week open-ended lower under 1.9605. As it now stands developing weekly resistance is 1.9605 and 1.9740/45 trend before jump to 1.9950. Lone nearby support is the May breakdown level at 1.9480. Under there sees effective drop to Q2 level at 1.8975. Strategy is to sell strength to 1.9740/50 or weakness on close under 1.9480.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. This is a GREAT day setup, with potentially multi-time frame (day/weekly/monthly) breakpoint at 1.9490/80. The situation starts out neutral above there, but has intraday gap to 1.9270 below. Resistance is 1.9605 weekly level, 1.9620/25 daily trend and 1.9705. Projecting a 1.9620 to 1.9480 day – but with sharp extension risk below there.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, move 50% short at 1.9740/45 – stop on close above 1.9745. On weakness, move 50% short on ANY BREAK of 1.9480. Stop new shorts on weakness on close back above 1.9500.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Bearish. Weekly trend is going to turn bearish with any settle under 1.5665 today, and the setup for next week is going to point lower under combined area from 1.5495 to developing weekly trend at 1.5545/55. The key to further downside is the monthly uptrend at 1.5345. Though it was stretched yesterday, it ultimately held and the setup is neutral until it gives way. Below there is minimum drop to May level at 1.5125. Resistance above 1.5545/55 trend jumps to 1.5750. Will reset shorts on rally against 1.5545/55.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend can turn bearish with settle under 1.5445 today. But the overall setup is neutral and balanced to both sides today. Resistance is 1.5445 trend to 1.5465/85, with first weekly level at 1.5495 as well. Supports are 1.5305, 1.5205, then May level at 1.5125. Expecting a 1.5465ish high and 1.5305 low.

Position Strategy:
Currently flat after stopping the 1.5405 longs on intraday break under 1.5345 yesterday. Will reset to 25% short at 1.5495; 75% short at 1.5545/55 developing weekly trend – stop on close above 1.5555.

Published on  Fri, May 9 2008, 13:08 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Thu, Apr 17 2008, 13:57 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW: Seeing some modest to louder hints that another corrective leg up in the USD may be starting. The biggest ‘canary in the coal mine’ is Sterling. After failing at bearish weekly trend of 1.9870/80 on Monday, it settled under Q2 breakdown support at 1.9630 yesterday. Today’s setup points to 1.9565/55, with earliest target for shorts the weekly level at 1.9475. Elsewhere, the neutral upturn in daily momentum vs JPY, Swiss and (downturn) in Euro all signal a shift in rotation. Euro is particularly vulnerable to a break below its longstanding weekly uptrend at 1.5720. That level is expected to come under pressure today – with extension risk below.



JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The main event Tuesday was the shift in daily trend from bearish to neutral, signaling that the weekly uptrend at 100.67 has successfully held and we are set to rotate higher. Resistance for the week now jumps to 102.71 and the monthly downtrend at 104.47/77. Key support for the week remains 100.67 trend, before drop down to 98.51. Based on the daily chart trend sift, projecting a push higher to 102.71. Hold longs against 100.67; target is 102.71.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend turned from bearish to neutral Tuesday. The firm close leaves a bullish bias. Supports are 101.21 and combined daily/weekly trend zone at 101.72/67. Resistance is initial day hurdle at 102.02, before jump to the 102.71 weekly target. The expected day range is 101.21 to 102.71.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% long at 100.72/70. Stop on close under 100.60 or intraday break of 100.30. Exit ½ at 102.71 this week; rest for 104.47/77. Day Trade: buy 101.21 and 100.72/67; sell 102.81/103.07.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The weekly situation is still neutral here, but the shift in the daily chart from bearish to neutral signals a rotation higher toward the resistance side of the weekly setup. Resistance is 1.0120 and 1.0175, then jumps to the first monthly level at 1.0465/80. Supports for the week are still back at .9905/.9895 to April level at .9790. No immediate change in expectations for the week from 1.0175 to .9790. But will expect to see 1.0175 in the short-term. Will still wait to buy .9905 to .9790.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend shifted from bearish to neutral with Tuesday’s rally. The setup today is neutral to bullish. Supports are 1.0015, .9985 and .9960, before drop to weekly base still at .9905/.9895. The resistance focus today is expected to center on the weekly pair at 1.0120 and 1.0175. Expecting a .9985 to 1.0175 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move to 25% long at .9895/80; 50% long at .9790 – stop on close under .9790. The target is 1.0480. Day Trade: buy ..9985 and .9960; sell 1.0175.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Monday’s failure at the bearish weekly trend zone of 1.9870/80, followed by Tuesday’s break/close under the Q2 breakdown level at 1.9635, threatens larger downside here. Although there are weekly levels at 1.9565 and 1.9475, the larger drop is to 1.9235 for April and 1.8975 for Q2. Resistance remains the weekly levels at 1.9795 and 1.9875/80, plus Q2 level at 1.9910. Expect a test to at least 1.9475 this week – the earliest partial cover level for shorts.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend is officially neutral from Monday’s uptrade – but with a downward bias to today’s setup. Resistance is 1.9620, 1.9675, 1.9715 and weekly level at 1.9795. Supports are weekly/day zone at 1.9565/55 and weekly level at 1.9475. Expecting a 1.9675 to 1.9555 day, with low to 1.9475 possible.

Position Strategy: Currently 75% short at 1.9855 average. Add to 100% short at 1.9910 – stop entire position on close above there. Cover 1/3rd (25%) at 1.9475. Day Trade: sell against 1.9675 and 1.9715; cover day shorts at 1.9565/55 and 1.9475.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend is still officially bullish, but expected to be challenged at 1.5720 today. Euro is increasingly ripe for a reversal lower. The main event Tuesday was the downturn in daily trend, which should force the challenge to the 1.5755/20 weekly zone. Under there is drop to 1.5530 and 1.5375 this week, and larger break to 1.5090 monthly uptrend for April. Resistance remains 1.5855 (April) and 1.5915 (weekly), before upside lifts to 1.6295. Strategy is to hold existing shorts against 1.5915 to cover at 1.5375 and 1.5090.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend fell from bullish to neutral yesterday, triggering a test to the key weekly uptrend zone at 1.5755 to 1.5720 today. The day setup is neutral above 1.5720/15, but turns negative under there with drop to 1.56125 and 1.5530. Resistance is 1.5835/40, 1.5855/65 and 1.5915 weekly level. Expect a 1.5835/40 to 1.5715 day – with extension risk below.

Position Strategy: Currently 100% short at 1.5835 average. Stop on close above 1.5915. Will cover 1/3rd at 1.5530; another 1/3rd at 1.5375; rest at 1.5090. Day Trade: sell 1.5835/40 and 1.5855/65; cover shorts at 1.5720/15; go with action under 1.5700.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. No real changes here. As long as $/CAD holds above bullish weekly trend at 1.0169/58, the setup for the week is neutral to bullish. Weekly resistance is 1.0299, then the monthly trio at 1.0336 to 1.0367/68 to 1.0419. Support under 1.0169/58 drops to 1.0103 and 1.0060 for the week, with significantly larger drop-off to .9759/49 for April. Still looking for a 1.0103 to 1.0336 weekly range. Will wait to scale into shorts at 1.0336 to 1.0419.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum did turn neutral with Tuesday’s sideways to lower trade. The resulting setup is evenly balanced to both sides. Supports are combined weekly trend/day zone at 1.0169/58, 1.0142 and weekly level at 1.0103. Resistance is 1.0211, 1.0244 and day/weekly zone at 1.0298/99. Expecting a 1.0142 to 1.0244 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, move 25% short at 1.0336; 50% short at 1.0360/68; 75% short at 1.0419 – stop on close above 1.0420. Day Trade: buy weakness to 1.0166/42; exit day longs at 1.0244; sell 1.0298/99.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend leans bearish with settle under .9270 today, and is expected to force a test of the larger bullish-leaning weekly trend at .9197/86. That remains the dominant focus under the market, and place to set partial longs against. Below there is drop to .9126 and .9037/27. Besides .9270 daily trend, resistance for the week is .9315, then the higher April/weekly target at .9439/66. Strategy remains to set partial longs against the .9197/86 zone.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. An interesting battle setting up today between bearish-leaning daily trend at .9270 and bullish-leaning weekly trend at .9197/86. The setup is neutral between there. Resistance above is combined weekly/day zone at .9316/37. Support under .9197/86 is .9159. Expecting a .9197 to .9315/16 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 50% long at .9197/86 weekly trend – stop on close under .9180. Target is .9439/66. Day Trade: buy .9197/86; exit day longs at .9270 and .9315/16.



Published on  Thu, Apr 17 2008, 13:57 GMT

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The backup in the USD yesterday presents some opportunity

Thu, Apr 10 2008, 10:10 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW: The backup in the USD yesterday presents some opportunity. The failure to turn daily trend bullish in both $/JPY and $/Swiss suggests a correction lower to primary weekly buy levels at the 100.72/70 weekly trend in $/JPY and combined weekly/April base at .9860/.9790CH. Sterling, for its part is tend down on both the daily and weekly charts, with developing weekly setup open-ended lower below 1.9820/80, its primary sell zone. The acceleration point on a break lower is getting under Q2 support at 1.9630. Euro is once again testing its upside breakout for April at 1.5855. The battle is between there and 1.5755 weekly trend.




JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend failed to turn bullish Wednesday, signaling a renewed test of weekly support at 100.70. That levels is growing in significance as developing weekly trend is also slated to rise to 100.72 for next week. Under there is minimum drop to 99.33. Resistance – both for this week and next – remains high. A developing weekly level is at 104.19, with the monthly downtrend for April still 104.47/77. Strategy is to set partial longs against 100.72/70.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily trend failed to turn bullish yesterday, keeping the situation neutral. The outside range leaves a widespread day setup. Resistance is 102.21, 102.90/99 and 103.91. Supports are 101.59, 101.29 and the developing/current weekly buy zone at 100.72/70. Projecting a 101.29 to 102.21 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move 50% long at 100.72/70 – stop on close under 100.60. The minimum target is 104.19/47. Day Trade: buy against 101.29 and 100.72/70; exit day longs at 102.21 and 102.90/99.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Wednesday’s failure to turn daily trend bullish removes the upside pressure, but doesn’t really change the overall neutral (i.e. corrective) weekly bias. As it now stands, main support is a combined developing/current weekly zone at .9865/40 and the April base at .9790. Resistance for next week is forming at 1.0120/40, then jumps to the 1.0480 monthly level. Strategy is unchanged: will set partial longs against .9860/40 and .9790 for the push to 1.0480/1.0560 April target.

Daily Comments - Neutral to bearish. Daily momentum failed to turn bullish yesterday, and the weak price action leaves a negative bias today. Resistance is 1.0025, 1.0095 and 1.0175. There is no support until .9885 day level and the first weekly buy zone at .9860/40. Expecting a 1.0095 to .9885 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move to 25% long at .9865/40; 50% long at .9790 – stop on close under .9790. The target is 1.0480. Day Trade: sell 1.0095 and 1.0175; buy .9885 and .9865/40.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Despite the hold above the Q2 breakdown level at 1.9630 and the bounce yesterday, the overall situation in Sterling remains negative. Specifically, weekly trend is bearish, and the developing setup for next week is openended lower (other than the 1.9630 support) under developing resistance at 1.9820 and 1.9880/1.9910. Above there is jump to April level at 2.0075. Under 1.9630 is minimum drop to 1.9475. Strategy is to set partial shorts at 1.9820 and 1.9880/1.9910.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. Daily trend did turn bearish yesterday, and the setup today is neutral to negative. Main resistance is the combination of daily trend at 1.9795/1.9805 and weekly level at 1.9820. A second weekly level is at 1.9880. Main support is daily/Q2 breakdown zone at 1.9635/30, then drop to 1.9475. Expecting a 1.9805 to 1.9630 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 25% short at 1.9820; 75% short at 1.9880/1.9910 – stop on close above 1.9920 today. Day Trade: sell against 1.9795/1.9805; 1.9820 and 1.9880; cover day shorts at 1.9635/30; go with action under 1.9630..


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Both sides of the battle for direction here – bullish weekly trend at 1.5670/40 and the April hurdle at 1.5855 – have held so far this week. The situation remains neutral between there. That said, weekly trend is going to continue to creep higher to 1.5755, narrowing the margin for error. Getting above 1.5855 turns next week’s setup open-ended higher and sees gap to 1.6530 for the month. Conversely support under 1.5755 drops to 1.5505 for net week and to 1.5090 monthly trend for April. Strategy is to hold shorts against 1.5855 for now.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is bullish, but is offset by the April hurdle at 1.5855. The day setup is neutral to bullish. Main resistance is 1.5855 and daily/weekly zone at 1.5920/25, before jump to 1.6045. Supports are 1.5785, 1.5755/35 and 1.5695. Expecting a 1.5755/35 to 1.5920 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 100% short at 1.5835 average after adding shorts at 1.5855 Wednesday. Stop on close above 1.5860 or intraday break above 1.5930. Cover 25% at 1.5755/35; another 25% at 1.5505..


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The intermediate picture remains neutral and widespread – but with the fresh bullish trend on the day chart forcing the market higher in the short-term. As it now stands, the nearest resistance forming for next week is 1.0360 – right in the middle of the monthly area from 1.0336 to 1.0367/68 and 1.0419. All are sell levels. Supports for next week are 1.0090 and 1.0060, then drop to the April base at .9759/49. Expecting a push to 1.0336/68 – will set shorts there.

Daily Comments – Bullish. Daily trend is bullish and the day setup points outright higher. The result should be upside extension from the last two days. Closest resistance is 1.0257 and expiring weekly zone at 1.0296/1.0317. Supports are 1.0158, bullish daily trend at 1.0141/38 and 1.0075. Expecting a 1.0158/42 to 1.0257 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, move 25% short at 1.0336; 50% short at 1.0360/68; 75% short at 1.0419 – stop on close above 1.0420. Day Trade: buy 1.0158 and 1.0142/38; exit day longs at 1.0257; sell 1.0317/24.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. Aussie continues to point higher above the April breakout at .9212. But the market has paused at a fixed developing weekly level of .9315 and that is the chief focus the next couple of days. Getting above there turns upside open-ended for next week and points minimally to the April level at .9439. The eventual target is the Q2 target at .9594. Supports are bullish daily trend at .9272, developing weekly trend at +/-.9173, then weekly/April base at .9057/37. Raise stop on the existing long to close under daily trend at .9272. If stopped, will reset at .9173.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend is still bullish, but wavering – it can turn neutral with settle under .9272 today. The setup is neutral, with direction pivoting to either side of trend. Resistance is .9315, .9331 and .9379. Support below trend is .9220/11. Expecting a .9220 to .9331 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% long at .9263 from Monday’s buy on close. Raise stop to close under .9272 daily trend, or intraday break of .9245. If stopped, will reset to 50% long at .9173 – stop on close under .9160.

Published on  Thu, Apr 10 2008, 10:10 GMT

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Daily Technical Outlook

Wed, Apr 9 2008, 12:52 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW: The upside breakout in Aussie above .9243/12 gained traction yesterday and is headed for the April/weekly extreme at .9439/65. Bullish daily trend intersects at .9235/27 today. $/JPY is officially neutral on the week, but with a bullish bias from 100.70 to 104.47/77. Daily trend can turn bullish above 102.17 today, with intraday upside gap from 102.67 to 103.78. Sterling broke under a couple weekly supports at 1.9870/35 and 1.9710 yesterday. Daily trend now leans bearish below 1.9870/1.9915 today and should put immediate pressure on the Q2 breakdown level at 1.9630. Euro still triggers downside correction below weekly uptrend at 1.5670/40.




JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. So far, there has been no change to the weekly picture. But daily trend can turn bullish above 102.17 today, and figures to force the tempo on the upside. There remains no resistance until the monthly downtrend at 104.47/77, weekly level at 104.88 and Q2 level at 105.85 – all of which forms the main sell zone for the month. Supports for the week are still 100.70, 99.33 and 96.84. Strategy remains to set partial longs at 100.70; wait to sell 104.47/88.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily trend can turn bullish with settle above 102.17 today – but with an initially neutral setup under 102.67. That is the main hurdle, with intraday gap above there to 103.78. Supports are 102.17 trend, 101.94, 101.66, then the weekly buy level at 100.70/67. Based on the trend lean, projecting a 102.17/101.94 to 103.78 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move 50% long at 100.70 – stop on close under 100.60. On strength, move to 50% short at 104.47/77 – stop on close above 104.90. Day Trade: buy 102.17/101.94 and 101.66; target is 103.78.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. The weekly picture remains neutral as long as initial resistance at 1.0175/95 holds – but with potential to accelerate above there. The fact daily trend can turn bullish above 1.0105 today increases the odds of a push above 1.0200. Thru there is jump to 1.0480 for the week and 1.0560 monthly downtrend. However, other than daily trend weekly supports remain deep at .9865/49 and April base at .9790. The focus today is the battle between 1.1005 daily trend and 1.0195 weekly breakout.

Daily Comments - Neutral to bullish. Daily trend can turn bullish above 1.0105 today, and there is potential for upside breakout above the weekly zone at 1.1075/95. That is the main hurdle, before intraday gap to 1.0265. Supports are 1.0105, 1.0085, 1.0050 and .9960. Projecting a 1.0085 to 1.0265 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move to 50% long at .9865/40; 100% long at .9795/90 – stop on close under there. The target is 1.0480. On strength, will wait to move 50% short at 1.0560 monthly downtrend – stop on close above.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Bearish weekly trend is starting to make more of an impact in Sterling, as initial weekly supports at 1.9870/35 and 1.9710 both gave way yesterday and daily trend once again leans bearish below 1.9870 today. The key downside breakpoint is the Q2 level at 1.9630. Below there is drop to 1.9475 and 1.9280. Besides the 1.9870 daily trend, resistance at this point is monthly resistance at 1.9910 and 2.0075, plus weekly level at 2.0130. Will look to sell 1.9870/1.9910 today.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bearish. Daily trend can turn bearish with settle under 1.9870 today. The initial setup is offset by the Q2 level at 1.9630, but points lower under there with drop to 1.9495. Resistance is 1.9805, 1.9870 and 1.9910/15 – the latter two sell levels. Expecting a 1.9870 to 1.9630 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Move to 25% short at 1.9870; 50% short at 1.9910/15 – stop on close above 1.9920 today. If stopped, will reset at 2.0075/2.0130. Day Trade: sell against 1.9870/1.9915; cover day shorts at 1.9630.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Despite yesterday’s bullish turn in daily trend, Euro continues to fail at the weekly/April resistance area from 1.5775 to 1.5855. As long as it holds under there, the setup is no better than neutral – and potentially vulnerable to a sharp downside correction below weekly trend at 1.5670/40. Below there is drop to 1.5390 for the week and 1.5090 for April. Resistance above 1.5855 is an interim weekly level at 1.5925, then larger gap to 1.6430 for the month. Strategy is to add/hold shorts against 1.5855 for eventual decline to 1.5390 and 1.5090.

Daily Comments – Neutral. An awkward day setup where trend did turn bullish, but the weak close leaves a neutral to negative setup. Supports today are weekly trend at 1.5640 and lone day level at 1.5615, before drop to 1.5390. Resistance is 1.5710/20, 1.5740 and 1.5775 weekly level. Projecting a 1.5740 to 1.5615 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 75% short at 1.5825 average after adding shorts at 1.5775 Tuesday. Add to 100% short at 1.5855. Stop on close above 1.5860. Cover ½ at 1.5390; rest at 1.5165. Day Trade: sell 1.5740 and 1.5775; cover day shorts at 1.5615.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. $/CAD continues to trade neutral in the weekly time frame, with a widespread weekly setup from 1.0002/.9941 to 1.0296/1.0317. Monthly levels are even wider at .9759/49 and 1.0336/68. The only real influence inside there is daily trend, which leans bullish above 1.0101/1.0097 today and suggests a near-term push back to the 1.0300/68 resistance area. Strategy is to set shorts at 1.0336 to 1.0367/68 to 1.0419; will wait to buy .9759/49 for now.

Daily Comments – Neutral to bullish. Daily momentum starts out neutral, but can turn bullish with settle above 1.0097 today. The day setup is neutral to modestly bullish. Supports are 1.0101/1.0097, 1,0070 and 1.0030. Day resistance is 1.0169 and 1.0204, with the larger weekly zone at 1.0296/1.0317 above there. Expecting a 1.0097 to 1.0204 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, move 25% short at 1.0336; 50% short at 1.0367/68; 75% short at 1.0419 – stop on close above 1.0420. Day Trade: buy 1.0101/1.0097 daily trend; exit day longs at 1.0204.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral to bullish. Aussie held above its April/weekly breakout zone at .9243/12 yesterday and continues to blossom to the upside. Closest resistance at this point is the April level at .9439 and weekly extreme at .9465. The eventual Q2 target level is at .9594. Supports for the week are .9199, .9099 and .9057/37 weekly/April breakdown level. Bullish daily trend also intersects at .9235 today. Still expecting extension higher to .9439/65 for rest of week. Hold existing longs against .9121; target is .9439/65.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. Daily trend remains firmly bullish, but with an overall neutral setup today. Initial resistance sits immediately above at .9310, with .9341 higher up before gap to .9439 April level. Main support is .9235/27 daily trend and .9205. Expecting a .9235/27 to .9341 day range

Position Strategy: Currently 50% long at .9263 after reversing long on Monday’s settle. Stop on close under .9212. Will exit ½ at .9439; rest at .9465. Day Trade: buy .9235/27 and .9205; exit day longs at .9310 and .9341; sell .9439/46.

Published on  Wed, Apr 9 2008, 12:52 GMT

0

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Daily Technical Outlook

Mon, Apr 7 2008, 14:33 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)


OVERVIEW: Tuesday’s trade saw neutral turns in daily trend vs Swiss, Sterling and Euro, and a bullish reversal in $/JPY. Each of those signals a countertrend correction to relatively distant weekly/monthly trend targets – up to 105.16/25 to 105.85 vs JPY; minimal move to 1.0595 weekly trend in $/Swiss (with larger monthly/Q2 sell zone at 1.0710/65); back to weekly uptrend at 1.9830/05 in Cable; and the deep weekly uptrend/March base at 1.5060/40 in Euro. All those areas represent places to resell USDs against. $/CAD and Aussie both remain neutral on the intermediate charts, with boundaries at 1.0012 to .9794/47CAD and .9101/.9088 to .9423/38 in Aus$.



JPY/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. Tuesday’s recovery above the 102.54 March breakdown level, coupled with the bullish reversal in daily trend, signals a correction higher. The chief target is the combined weekly downtrend/March zone at 105.16/25 to the developing Q2/April zone at 105.85/86. Both areas are places to reset shorts against. Besides 102.54, supports for the week remain down at 100.20 and 99.23. Strategy is to set shorts on extended bounce to 105.16/25 and 105.85/86.

Daily Comments – Bullish. Daily momentum reversed bullish Tuesday and the setup today points higher despite the outside range. Closest resistance is the combined weekly/day zone at 104.55/63, with March level at 105.16/25 above there. Supports are 103.45, 102.43 daily trend and 101.23/22. Based on the trend shift, expecting a 102.54/43 to 104.55/63 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Will move to 50% short at 105.16/25; 100% short at 105.85 – stop on close above 106.15 this week. Day Trade: buy weakness against 102.54/38 and 101.23/22, separately; sell strength to 104.55/63.


CHF/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. The USD hit and held the Q1 support target at 1.0145, and the resulting neutral upturn in daily trend signals a correction higher. The minimum upside target is the 1.0480 weekly level, with larger weekly downtrend at 1.0595. Supports are still the 1.0145 level, March support at 1.0065, then .9975. The correction is expected to push to the 1.0480/1.0595 this week. The larger sell zone is developing April trend and Q2 resistance at 1.0710/65.

Daily Comments - Neutral to bullish. Daily momentum is neutral, but with larger upside risk to the day setup. Other than an immediate day level at 1.0330, there is nothing above until 1.0445 for the day and 1.0480 this week. Supports are 1.0235, Q1 level at 1.0245 and 1.0115. Looking for a 1.0235 to 1.0445 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat after covering ½ the 1.1020 short at the 1.0145 Q1 level and stopping the rest on the neutral turn in daily trend. Will reset to 50% short at 1.0710; 100% short at 1.0765. Day Trade: buy 1.0145/15; sell 1.0445/80.


Pound

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Weekly trend is still bullish here, but the loss of the daily uptrend Tuesday signals a near-term correction lower. The chief target is the bullish weekly momentum area from 1.9890 to 1.9830/05. An existing March level at 1.9725 remains under there. Chief resistance for the week is still the 2.0335 March hurdle and 2.0435 weekly level. Still looking for a 1.9890/30 to 2.0335 week. Will set partial longs against 1.9830/05, if hit today.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum fell from bullish to neutral Tuesday. The setup today is neutral and widespread. Resistance is 2.0205, 2.0240 and combined daily/March sell zone at 2.0330/35. Supports are initial level at 2.0030, then drop to 1.9910/1.9890. Based on the loss of uptrend, projecting a 2.0205 to 1.9910 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On weakness, move to 50% long at 1.9830/05 – stop on close under 1.9800 weekly trend. On strength, move 50% short at 2.0330/35 – stop on close above there.


European Currency Unit

Weekly Outlook – Bullish to neutral. Still a very widespread weekly range, but with one key change yesterday – daily trend fell from bullish to neutral. Combined with the depth of intermediate support, the potential is there for a sharp pullback. The nearest base is the combined weekly uptrend and March zone at 1.5060/40, with second weekly level at 1.4955. Resistance is still primarily the weekly/March zone at 1.5525/60, with additional April level forming at 1.5535. Strategy is to set partial longs at 1.5525/60; set longs against 1.5060/40.

Daily Comments – Neutral. Daily momentum fell from bullish to neutral yesterday, leaving a balanced and neutral setup for today. Resistance is 1.5370, 1.5455 and weekly/monthly sell zone at 1.5525/35. Supports are 1.5240/35 and 1.5160. Expecting a 1.5455 down to 1.5240/35 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. On strength, move 25% short at 1.5525/35; 50% short at 1.5560 – stop on close above 1.5560. On weakness, move 100% long at 1.5060/40 – stop on close under 1.5040. Day Trade: sell 1.5460 and 1.5525/35; cover at 1.5245/40.


CAD/USD

Weekly Outlook – Bearish to neutral. A bit of a mixed message yesterday as daily trend did turn bullish, but the USD faded to close back down under the bearish weekly trend zone at .9936/56. The larger key to upside remains the March hurdle at 1.0012. As long as we stay below there, the weekly picture is no better than neutral. Above there is intraweek gap to at least 1.0187. Supports for the week are still .9830, .9794 and .9749, before drop to .9618. Strategy remains to add shorts against 1.0012.

Daily Comments – Bullish to neutral. The battle today is between the new daily uptrend at .9923/20 to .9905 and the key March breakout hurdle at 1.0012. Above there is bullish with intraday gap to 1.0083; conversely, below .9905 trend sees drop to .9839/30. Projecting a .9905 to 1.0012 day range.

Position Strategy: Currently 50% short at .9928 average. Add to 75% short at 1.0012 March level. Stop shorts on close above 1.0012 or intraday break above 1.0130. Day Trade: buy .9920/05; sell 1.0012.


Australian Dollar

Weekly Outlook – Neutral. Weekly trend is still officially bullish, but with an effective neutral setup between Q2/April base at .9101/.9088 and the April/Q1 resistance at .9423/38. Weekly/March levels at .9233/23 and .9329/39 inside there are lesser factors, but do influence the short-term trade. Tuesday’s settle back above .9233/23 is a slight positive. Still projecting a .9101 to .9438 week. Strategy is to reset stopped longs on weakness to .9101/.9088.

Daily Comments – Bearish to neutral. This is an awkward day setup, with trend still officially bearish but the setup pointing higher by virtue of the strong close. Supports are .9250/46 (daily trend turns neutral above), .9213 and .9146/33. Resistance is weekly/day zone at .9329/45 and .9397. Expecting a sideways to higher day from .9213 to .9329/45.

Position Strategy: Currently flat. Will reset to 50% long at .9101/.9088 – stop on close under .9080. Day Trade: buy .9213 and .9146/33; sell weekly/day zone at .9329/45.

Published on  Mon, Apr 7 2008, 14:33 GMT


Archive

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)  | Montpelier, Vermont
http://www.globalmarketresearch.com | FXTechinfo@globalmarketresearch.com

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GMR does not guarantee the accuracy or the completeness of the information or data provided here, on its website or in its newsletters. The opinions and trading strategies are for informational purposes only. GMR makes no warranty, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from the use of the information contained here, on its website or in its newsletters. GMR specifically disclaims the warranties of non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall GMR be liable for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential, incidental or any other damages (including lost profits) even if GMR has been advised of the possibility of such damages.


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