Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD approaches 1.3258/73 resistance level
“The stable outlook balances our view of euro zone member states’ determination to support Greece’s euro zone membership and the Greek government’s commitment to a fiscal and structural adjustment against the economic and political challenges of doing so”
- Standard & Poor’s (based on Bloomberg)
Pair’s Outlook
EUR/USD pair firmly appreciates and have already reached a 1.3258/78 resistance level, which is the key, as it contains the monthly R2 and the weekly R1, but more importantly it coincides with this spring’s channel upper boundary. Therefore, it is likely that at this level the price might find a cluster of sell orders, what will weaken an upside impulse. In case it is too small to stop, the next resistance is at 1.3381 and this is the weekly R2 with the highest point of the spring’s channel.
Traders’ Sentiment
Bears follow the increasing exchange rate sceptically, as the bullish side stays unchanged at 38% and the bearish side at 62%. Pending orders segment mixes sentiments, as 49% of orders are buy and 51% are sell.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD steps above the weekly R1 at 1.6244
“The inflation numbers were a little bit of a non-event, MPC minutes and retail sales will be the focus this week, and if the minutes are on the dovish side ... we could see sterling more vulnerable”
- BMO Capital Markets (based on Reuters)
Pair’s Outlook
GBP/USD pair demonstrates a rarely strong bullish momentum, as the price increases without bigger corrections for the second week. The currency pair overcame the weekly R1 at 1.6244 and steps even higher towards the weekly R2 at 1.6314. However, a potential appreciation in an upcoming sessions is not very likely, as technical indicators mean heavily overbought price - the RSI indicator has a value of 75 and the price is sharply above the daily Bollinger band.
Traders’ Sentiment
The British Sterling recovers its positions, as the bullish side grew to 24% and the bearish side slipped to 76%. Placed orders segment increased its bearish sentiment even more, as 44% of orders are buy and 56% are sell.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY peaks a new high at 84.43
“Yen-selling is likely to remain intact. The BOJ will probably disappoint the market if it doesn’t boost asset purchases”
- Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
Pair’s Outlook
Bullish sentiments and expectations in USD/JPY pair lifted the price to a new high at 84.43, which is the highest level since April, 2012. After a weekend’s gap the exchange rate slipped to the weekly R1 at 83.85, however, without closing a gap, reversed and increased further. The price shows significant expectations to receive a positive decision from the Bank of Japan on the monetary easing programme, therefore an actual decision, specially if it does not match the expectations, might bring a notable correction. The RSI has a value of 72 and the index stays around this level while the price gradually steps up, creating a divergence.
Traders’ Sentiment
Recent appreciation of USD/JPY pair has not changed sentiments of SWFX market participants, as 74% of traders have long positions and 26% have short positions. Pending orders segment stays heavily bullish, since 85% of orders is buy and only 15% is sell.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF quickly depreciates
“What is important, and what is driving the market higher, is that the two parties are now in constructive discussions over specific tax levels and spending programmes, and working towards a common middle ground”
- IG Markets (based on Reuters)
Pair’s Outlook
USD/CHF pair experiences a heavy depreciation, as the price decreased to the lowest level since May, 2012. The exchange rate moves along the lower Bollinger line towards the weekly S1 at 0.9101 and the monthly S2 at 0.9079. Looking from a wider perspective in the weekly graph the lower Bollinger line is at 90.70, which will be a strong resistance for the current debasement. As the price deprecates for the second week, the RSI has a value only of 26, therefore it is probable that the price will start a correction soon.
Traders’ Sentiment
The Swiss Franc loses the ground, as the buy side sharply increased its share in opened positions market: 83% of traders have long positions and only 17% have short ones. Placed orders segment comes along the trend, as 40% of orders are buy and 60% are sell.
