EUR/USD holds above the 200-day SMA at 1.2725
“It’s quite likely that we get some positive noise out of the finance ministers’ meeting about Greece getting a sign-off on its next tranche. But the fundamental backdrop for the euro still isn’t favorable, given that incoming data has been quite weak”
- Bank of New Zealand (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/USD pair during Friday trading session moved down and in a daily graph tested the SMA for 200 bars at 1.2725 and in a H4 graph reached the lower line of Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price has slightly increased and is traded at 1.2758. If upward trend scenario takes the scene, 1.2800 level will be important with the monthly S1 level and the 200-day SMA. And if the price turns to south, 1.2725 level will be the first support, as the 200-day SMA and the 100-day SMA converge, and 1.2630 level will be the second, as the monthly S2 and the lower line of Bollinger bands intercept.
SWFX market data changes very slightly and EUR/USD pair stays in a neutral position, as 51% traders have a long position and 49% have a short. Pending orders market is very similar, since 54% orders are placed for a bullish position and 46% for a bearish.
GBP/USD steps above the 200-day SMA at 1.5859
“Weak economic numbers and comments from the Bank of England presented a downside risk for sterling in the near term. Our view remains, however, that as long as the euro debt crisis is unresolved, sterling will benefit from a safe-haven status”
- Saxo bank (based on Bloomberg
After the test of the 200-day SMA at 1.5859 in the end of last week, GBP/USD pair steps higher and currently is traded at 1.5915. The pair retreated from the weekly S1 level at 1.5844 and now easily moves towards the 100-day SMA and the weekly R1, which intercept at 1.5944 level. Considering an uptrend scenario, 1.5932-1.5967 range will be the area, where majority of levels and moving averages converge. And for a downtrend, 1.5784 level will be very important, as the weekly and monthly S2 levels and the lower Bollinger line cross.
GBP/USD pair still remains bullish in SWFX market, as traders have 58% bullish positions and 42% bearish positions. Pending orders segment provides a slightly bearish data, since 47% orders are for buy and 53% for sell.
USD/JPY slips from the peak at 81.55
“What’s going on in Japanese politics is probably a more important driver for the yen, at least in the near term, and that can see it weakening. In the medium term, you can get these knee-jerk reactions to BOJ easing signals”
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia (based on Bloomberg)
USD/JPY pair made a peak at 81.55 during Friday’s trading session and that was the highest point in 7 months. The RSI indicator in a daily graph has reached 72.7 points in the peak point, however, this value forms a down-trend in the RSI graph, what makes a divergence with the price’s uptrend. In case the price still has a momentum, it may reach 81.65, a historical resistance level, and 82.34, the weekly R1 level.
USD/JPY pairs maintains a significant bullish status, as the market has huge expectations on the Yen depreciation. 73% of traders have a buy position and 27% have a sell position. Placed orders market data reached 88% benchmark of placed orders for a bullish position.
USD/CHF steps higher from 0.942 level
“QE3 certainly played its role in basically encouraging people to take risk and to some extent to short the dollar. The risk appetite was pretty strong overall, there were better places to park your money than the dollar”
- Societe Generale SA (based on Bloomberg)
During Friday trading session USD/CHF pair moved up and checked the 200-day SMA at 0.9466. Seems that the check test was successful, as the price closed beneath the moving average and today extends a downside movement. The possible support levels are 0.9393, the weekly S1, and the 0.9362-0.9344 range, where the 55-day SMA and the weekly S2 cross.
SWFX market distribution for USD/CHF pair remains extremely bullish, as the buy side contains 71% positions and the sell side only 29%. Pending orders segment also has sentiments for a bullish movement, since 73% orders are placed for a buy position and 27% for a sell position.