Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD firmly steps higher
“There’s renewed concern about Greece, new concern about Germany. When Germany slows down that is big in Europe”
- Bank of Israel (based on Bloomberg)
Pair’s Outlook
The bearish tendency, which started on October 31st, has failed to continue, as the last few days the major currency pair firmly appreciated. The depreciation was stopped by the 1.2705 level, which formed a support along with the 100-day SMA. Currently, the price approaches the 200-day SMA and if it is successful, the exchange rate will open free area for an appreciation till 1.2800. In case the correction fails, the price should decrease to retest the last bottom at 1.2661.
Traders’ Sentiment
Distribution of market players reached equilibrium in EUR/USD pair, as the buy and sell sides have 50% of opened orders. The pending orders segment is slightly more bullish than SWFX market, as 55% placed orders are buy and 45% are sell.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD breached the 200-day SMA
“The U.K. will avoid the worst of the euro-zone crisis and the pound offers relative safety compared with the euro. The pound has turned more resilient than it was earlier this year”
- Wells Fargo & Co. (based on Bloomberg)
Pair’s Outlook
Yesterday GBP/USD pair finally breached the 200-day SMA at the 1.5859 level and stopped at 1.5838, where the weekly S1 goes. Currently, the price steps slightly higher than yesterday closing price, thus the moving average will be tested from the bottom, in order to continue the downtrend. However, a short position may contain a lot of risk, as the RSI has a value of 31 and the major currency counterparts show correction signs.
Traders’ Sentiment
SWFX market participants became even more bullish, as the buy side reached 61% and the sell side 39%. But the placed orders market does not support appreciation idea so well, since the buy orders consist 47% and sell 53%.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY surges and reaches a new high
“The yen is being sold against the dollar on speculation the elections will lead to a change in administrations and Abe will ask the BOJ for more easing”
- Barclays Plc (based on Bloomberg)
Pair’s Outlook
USD/JPY pair sharply increases for the second day. After the pair bounced from the 200-day SMA at 79.40, the price is surging and today made a new high at 80.95. However, currently USD/JPY is traded around the 80.80 level, where the upper Bollinger line goes. The price appreciation is possible, as indicators have not entered an oversold zone yet, but if increase loses its momentum, the divergence might appear with a risk for decrease.
Traders’ Sentiment
Recent increase in USD/JPY pair, decreased the bullish sentiment very slightly, as the buy side has 70% part and the sell side only 30%. Placed orders distribution reached a new bullish record, as 86% orders were for a buy position and 14% for a sell.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF is traded around the 200-day SMA at 0.9459
“Policy uncertainty is affecting business confidence, delaying capital expenditure especially in the U.S. The potential if we get a resolution of some of these issues is a release of pent-up demand”
- Legal & General Management (based on Bloomberg)
Pair’s Outlook
During yesterday’s trading session it seemed that the price will brake through the 200-day SMA very easily, however, the price retreated and currently retests the moving average from beneath. If the price settles below, we will experience an extension of a downside correction, with possible support levels at 0.9352, where the weekly PP and the 55-day SMA lie, and 0.9322 with the weekly PP and the 20-day SMA.
Traders’ Sentiment
Traders at SWFX market are optimistic about USD/CHF pair, as 71% of traders hold long positions and 29% have short positions. The situation with orders also show uptrend expectations, since 68% investors ordered to buy and 32% to sell.
