EUR/USD slips further
“We remain confident that European support will be agreed on by the end of November, or early in December”
- Erik Nielsen, UniCredit SpA (based on Bloomberg)
Depreciation of EUR/USD pair was too powerful to be stopped above the 200-day SMA at 1.2740. On Friday session, the price had increased, but after that retreated even lower with a bottom at 1.2689. Currently, the price steps higher and if the 200-day SMA forms a sufficient resistance to keep the price beneath it, there is very possible to see further depreciation. Also, the RSI reached a value of 30 in the last session and that should be taken into the account, as the indicator entered an oversold zone.
SWFX market participants increased their bullish positions and currently there are 52% buy positions and 48% sell positions. Pending orders segment delivers very similar figures, as 48% have placed an order for a bullish position and 52% for a bearish.
GBP/USD steps sharply lower
“The risk of going over the cliff is higher than markets expect and the battle for the White House will pale in comparison to the all-out war that is likely coming in Congress”
- Nomura (based on Reuters)
The candle pattern did not work out on Friday trading session and the price decreased till the 1.5890 level, where only the lower Bollinger line can be found. As the price is constantly decreasing since 2nd of November, it is possible to see a small correction till the 100-day SMA and after that further price appreciation, at least till the 200-day SMA at the 1.5860 level. Also, a low RSI value of 38 should be considered.
Traders in SWFX market reversed their positions, as the bullish side increased since Friday from 43% to 51% and the bearish side currently consists 49% of the market. Placed orders segment stays slightly bearish, as 42% orders are for a buy position and 58% for a sell.
USD/JPY is bounded by the 200-day SMA
“We’re seeing a bit of yen selling against its crosses. There is some concern that Japan may be falling into recession”
- Lee Wai Tuck, Forecast Pte (based on Bloomberg)
USD/JPY pair’s downside movement is bounded by the 200-day SMA. Despite the fact that the price has broken through this level a few times in the last days, the price still came back and closed around it. Therefore, the 200-day SMA level is really important and settlement below it would mean a sharp price drop. Further support levels remain at 79.10 and 78.84.
SWFX market players’ sentiments do not change for USD/JPY pair and remains strongly bullish, as 72% have a buy position and 28% have a short position. Pending orders segment also support very bullish sentiments for a further price movement, as 83% are orders for buy and 17% for sell.
USD/CHF steps lower, from 0.9483
“Without action by Congress, the consequences of fiscal cliff would be very grave. The world cannot afford to see a continuation of the gridlock that has bedeviled the U.S. political system in recent years”
- Australian Treasurer Way Swan (based on Reuters)
As the last few weeks were strongly bullish and USD/CHF pair appreciated by almost 300 pips pushing the RSI value to the level of 69. Therefore, some correction would be very likely soon, at least bringing the price back to the 200-SMA level at 0.9454 to retest its strength. Further resistance level should be 0.9507/25, where the 100-day SMA and the weekly R1 intersect.
Traders in SWFX market strengthen their bullish positions on USD/CHF pair, as the buy side increased to 74% and the sell side reached 26%. Pending orders segment is also very bullish, as 70% traders placed orders for a buy position and only 30% for a sell.