EUR/USD’s outlook is from neutral to bearish
“There are still people predicting the $1.2000 level in the euro by year end”
- Cambridge Mercantile Group (based on CNBC)
EUR/USD continues to consolidate just below a 55 day SMA at 1.2406, but is nevertheless unlikely to overcome it and then resume advancement towards a key resistance at 1.2618/44, being that most of indicators on a weekly timeframe give “sell” signals. An interim support lies at 1.2337/34, followed by 1.2264/26 and 1.2060/1.1996.
At the moment 47% of SWFX marketplace participants are holding long positions, expecting appreciation of the Euro. On the other hand, 53% of traders are short on the pair, implying mixed overall sentiment towards the currency couple. Moreover, the share of buy orders is 51% and sell orders constitute 49% of the total amount.
GBP/USD to trade sideways
“The market will probably sell into a rally ahead of $1.57 because of the inflation report on Wednesday”
- CIBC (based on Reuters)
The cable received strong bullish impetus from a 55 day SMA at 1.5590, ahead of an uptrend support at 1.5540/17. However, the currency pair was unable to close above 1.5608/24 and should stay calm for now. In case GBP/USD commences robust recovery, it will encounter a formidable resistance at 1.5731/73, which has remained intact for more than two months.
The portion of bullish traders has fallen down to 49%, whereas bears currently form a majority - 51%, signifying emerging negative sentiment towards the cable. Additionally, the share of sell orders (48%) also exceeds the share of buy orders (52%), however, the advantage is yet insufficient to make any inferences.
USD/JPY bounced off 78.71
“Recent [Japan’s] economic data releases point to sharply slowing economic growth momentum amid rising concerns about deflation”
- Standard Chartered Bank (based on Bloomberg)
USD/JPY has effortlessly pierced through 78.43/42, but failed to penetrate 78.71 and the price is currently drifting lower. The pair is expected to make another attempt to erode the nearest resistance and get closer to a key level at 79.49/50, overcoming which would imply medium-term bullish behaviour, though additional resistances at 78.92/79.11 and 79.29 will have to be breached.
USD/JPY remains overbought, since 72% of the positions held are long, leaving only 28% of the market to traders, who deem the Japanese Yen bullish, thus there is a heightened probability of a dip. However, the pair may be supported by a large amount of buy orders (62%) and recover.
USD/CHF is choppy
“Risk appetite is still there and it’s really coming from the European Central Bank board member comments saying they’re for purchasing bonds”
- FXCM (based on MarketWatch)
USD/CHF is flat and unwilling to make a distinct move at the moment. Leg up has a higher chance of appearing, though, judging by technical indicators, we might observe some more wobbling prior to a full-blown rally. An initial resistance is at 0.9729/40, while subsequent levels are located at 0.9793/0.9825 and 0.9954/1.0003 and will hamper appreciation of the greenback.
The Swiss Franc has become the least frequently acquired currency in SWFX marketplace. Accordingly, traders’ sentiment is bullish and 73% of positions on the pair are long and merely 27% of them are short. The ratio between buy and sell orders is 53% to 47%, respectively.