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Daily Forex Outlook

Euro Rallies, Gold Plummets

Thu, Mar 11 2010, 01:42 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

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Euro Rallies, Gold Plummets

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a mixed day of trading as strength in Europe was once again reversed in the US session with the notable exception of Gold. Crude Oil Inventories where at 1.6m and helped Oil to small gains. In US stocks, DJIA +3 points closing at 10567, S&P +5 points closing at 1145 and NASDAQ +18 points closing at 2358. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 460k vs. 469k previously. Also released, January International Trade forecast at 41bn vs. 40bn previously.

The Euro (EUR) was supported from heavy EUR/JPY buying throughout the day pushing EUR/USD to the mid 1.3650 area. January's German Trade Balance slumped to 8.7 vs. 16.4bn forecast at exports fell heavily even as the Euro weakened. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3543 and a high of 1.3682 before closing at 1.3645. Looking ahead, Swiss Libor Rate Decision forecast to remain at 0.25% vs. 0.25%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) volatility continued with a major day of Yen weakness with USD/JPY pushing into the mid to high Y90 region. Yen Crosses all shot higher with EUR/JPY closing above the Y123 level. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.92 and a high of 90.84 before closing the day around 90.50 in the New York session. Update Q4 GDP revised to 3.8% vs. 4.6% y/y.

The Sterling (GBP) came under pressure in early Europe on weak economic data and struggled to rebound with the Euro later in the day. January Industrial Production slipped to -0.4% vs. 0.2% forecast. EUR/GBP broke above 0.9100 and is continuing to be well supported. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4871 and a high of 1.5017 before closing the day at 1.4970 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) shrugged off some weak housing finance data (-8% January) to test 0.9180 resistance before falling back ahead of today's Jobs data. AUD/JPY pushed above Y83 briefly but was pulled down by the large slump in Gold. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9125 and a high of 0.9195 before closing the US session at 0.9145. Looking ahead, February Jobs Change forecast at 15k vs. 52k previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) slumped over $15 an ounce in the US session as Sovereign debt Credit default spreads continued to tighten. Overall trading with a low of USD$1103 and high of USD$1128 before ending the New York session at USD$1108 an ounce. Crude Oil gained on strong inventory numbers. Crude Oil was up $0.42 ending the New York session at $81.91.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3650

Initial support at 1.3531 (Mar 5 low) followed by 1.3436 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3705 (Mar 8 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen – 90.45

Initial support is located at 88.98 (Mar 5 low) followed by 88.14 (Mar 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.68 (Mar 8 high) followed by 91.29 (Feb 23 high).

Pound – 1.4975

Initial support at 1.4855 (Mar 2 low) followed by 1.4784 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5196 (Mar 8 high) followed by 1.5317 (Feb 26 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.9145

Initial support at 0.8979 (Mar 4 low) followed by the 0.8936 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9211 (Jan 20 high) followed by 0.9243 (Jan 20 high).

Gold – 1108

Initial support at 1104 (Feb 26 low) followed by 1088 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1137 (Mar 8 high) followed by 1144 (Mar 3 high).

Oil – 81.80

Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Published on  Thu, Mar 11 2010, 01:53 GMT

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