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Daily Forex Outlook

USD strong as Stocks pull back

Fri, Nov 13 2009, 02:48 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

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USD strong as Stocks pull back

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained across the board as USD shorts covered on the back of falling stocks and comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that the global recovery road will be bumpy. Also supporting the dollar was very weak Oil and comments from US Treasurer Geithner about a strong US dollar policy and the cutting of US deficits. Weekly Jobless claims were 502k vs. 510k forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA -93 points closing at 10197, S&P -11 points closing at 1087 and NASDAQ -17 points closing at 2149. Looking ahead, September Trade Balance forecast at -31bn vs. -30bn previously.

The Euro (EUR) was heavily sold against the greenback and the Pound as Oil and stocks slumped in the US session. EUR/JPY held up well though as the Yen was also sold against the USD quite aggressively. EUR/GBP slipped back through 0.9000 as the recent pound weakness provided a buffer against further losses overnight. September Industrial Production is forecast at 0.4% was slightly weaker at 0.3%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4820 and a high of 1.5018 before closing at 1.4850. looking ahead, Q3 GDP forecast at 0.8% vs. 0.3% previously. EU Q3 GDP forecast at 0.5% vs. -0.2% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the USD as the key 90 Yen level was broken on the topside and senior MOF officials stated that exit strategies were still some time away as the Japanese consumer remains weak. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.63 and a high of 90.63 before closing the day around 90.35 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Industrial Output previously at 1.4%.

The Sterling (GBP) held up surprisingly well to USD strength with EUR/GBP selling and GBP/JPY buying offsetting to keep cable relatively unchanged. Ongoing support from M&A activity and general investment in to UK firms is providing an undercurrent of support for the Pound. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6513 and a high of 1.6629 before closing the day at 1.6570 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was hurt the most as the market was caught wrong footed after surging to fresh year highs in Asia to 0.9370 on the back of strong October Employment numbers showing +24k jobs vs. -10k forecast. When US stocks turned south and Oil crumbled the market liquidated and reversed the days direction to plumb 4 day lows. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9210 and a high of 0.9372 before closing the US session at 0.9230.

Oil & Gold (XAU) pulled back nearly $20 an ounce from fresh year highs as the USD strengthened across the board. Overall trading with a low of USD$1102 and high of USD$1123 before ending the New York session at USD$1104 an ounce. Was sold heavily after US oil inventories rose more than expected. Crude Oil was down -$1.73 ending the New York session at $77.55.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.4850

Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4800 (Key Level). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)

Yen – 90.35

Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.60 (Nov 12 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6580

Initial support at 1.6532 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.6519 (Nov 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9255

Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9476 (July 31 08 high) followed by 0.9637 (Jul 31 high).

Gold – 1105

Initial support at 1095 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1087 (Nov 6 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 - 1024.28 through 985).

Oil – 76.90

Initial support at 75.00 (Key level) followed by 74 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level).

Published on  Fri, Nov 13 2009, 02:50 GMT

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