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Daily Forex Outlook

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US Manufacturing expands

Tue, Nov 3 2009, 01:27 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

Easy Forex

US Manufacturing expands

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed as stocks remained volatile with good data not generating substantial gains in the stock markets. October ISM Manufacturing was 55.7 vs. 53 forecast. September Pending Home Sales gained 6.1%. The Dollar hit day highs at the start of Asia as the market opened Monday on a very shaky footing. In US Stocks, DJIA +76 points closing at 9789, S&P +7 points closing at 1043 and NASDAQ +4 points closing at 2049. Looking ahead, September Factory Orders are forecast at 0.8% vs. -0.8% previously.

The Euro (EUR) tested below 1.4700 in Asia but rebounded well as stocks lifted off lows and China's PMI at 55 showed manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 18 months. The rally continued on similar data in the US before stocks once again came under pressure and pushed the Euro lower. EUR/JPY was especially volatile rallying from 131 to test 134 in New York. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4682 and a high of 1.4847 before closing at 1.4765.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was extremely volatile with sharp selling in thin volume at the start of Asia leading to a test of low 89 Yen area before bouncing for the rest of the day. Crosses exaggerated the movement with all having 3+ Yen ranges. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.18 and a high of 90.72 before closing the day around 90.30 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Bank Holiday in Japan.

The Sterling (GBP) was pressured at the start of the European session as the market focused on propsed UK bank break up plan and potential for the BOE to expand QE by up to 50bn pounds more on Thursday. October PMI Manufacturing at 53.7 vs. 50.1 forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6327 and a high of 1.6481 before closing the day at 1.6395 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) touched fresh multi-week lows at .8905 before rebounding with the improving sentiment and manufacturing PMI's around the world. The commodity currency also enjoyed gains from the bounce in Oil and Gold seen overnight. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8904 and a high of 0.9125 before closing the US session at 0.9040. Looking ahead, RBA Interest rate meeting forecast to raise rates to 3.5% from 3.25% previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) bounced as the USD weakened over the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1041 and high of USD$1063 before ending the New York session at USD$1059 an ounce. Also bounced on improved global manufacturing data. Crude Oil was up $1.13 ending the New York session at $78.13.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.4770

Initial support at 1.4683 (Oct 29 low) followed by 1.4646 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high)

Yen – 90.35

Initial support is located at 88.84 (Oct 14 low) followed by 88.01 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.69 (Nov 2 high) followed by 91.82 (Oct 28 high).

Pound – 1.6400

Initial support at 1.6330 (Nov 2 low) followed by 1.6252 (Oct 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6604 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.6693 (Oct 23 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9040

Initial support at 0.8866 (Oct 7 low) followed by the 0.8760 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high).

Gold – 1058

Initial support at 1035 (Oct 30 low) followed by 1026 (Oct 29 high). Initial resistance is now at 1067 (Oct 20 high) followed by 1070 (Oct 14 high).

Oil – 78.20

Initial support at 76.20 (Intraday Support) followed by 75.25 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78.50 (previous support) followed by 80 (Major Level).

Published on  Tue, Nov 3 2009, 01:32 GMT