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Daily Forex Outlook

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US Stocks Slump

Thu, Jul 9 2009, 00:26 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

Easy Forex

US Stocks Slump 

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was volatile as the market sold in Europe then bought back in the US session with stocks steadily fell for the whole night. Oil continued to plumb monthly lows as concerns over proposed US regulation of the Energy market led to speculation some funds would exit the market. The Dollar continues to find support in the fall of Oil. Crude Oil down $2.68 at $64.05. In US share markets, S&P ended -17.69 points (-1.97%) at 881.03, NASDAQ ended -41 points (-2.31%) at 1746 and DOW JONES ended -161.27 points (-1.94%) at 8163.60.

The Euro (EUR) tested day highs after German Factory Orders +4.4% vs. +0.6%. The pair topped out near 1.4050 resistance than fairly consistently tracked the stocks markets lower. Talks of a second US stimulus package was quashed by the White House and led to more market nerves. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3875 and a high of 1.4000 before closing at 1.3970. Looking ahead, EU GDP Q1 Q/Q forecast -2.5% at vs. -1.8% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the strongest currency after receiving solid support via fresh safe haven flows and the closing of carry trades such as AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY. The USD/JPY was pressured back below 95 Yen but held well as the USD also received support. May Machine Orders fell -3% vs. +2.1% previously. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 94.59 and a high of 95.49 before closing the day around 94.80 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was pressured lower by risk aversion and a surprise drop in Manufacturing and Industrial Production (-0.5% and -0.6% respectively). GBP/USD found support at 1.6100 but with the BOE looming then further pullbacks can not be ruled out.  Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6296 and a high of 1.6066 before closing the day at 1.6090 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) Support at 0.7900 on the AUD/USD and 75 Yen on the AUD/JPY broke as US stocks slipped past month lows and Oil continued lower. RBA comments were bullish and helped during the Asia session and then EUR/USD strength helped the pair above 0.8000 in Europe. Most analysts are calling for a downside correction but this is the case with the majority of markets given the 30% rally seen in Q1-2. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7854 and a high of 0.8041 before closing the US session at 0.7900. UPDATE July Westpac Confidence +9.3%.

Gold (XAU) was under pressure from USD strength but safe haven flows supported. Overall trading with a low of USD$921 and high of USD$932 before ending the New York session at USD$924 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3920

Initial support at 1.3827 (Jun 29 low) followed by 1.3827 (Jun 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4026 (July 3 high) followed by 1.4201 (Jun 1 high)

Yen – 94.85

Initial support is located at 94.45 (Jun 1 low) followed by 93.86 (May 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 96.13 (Jun 06 high) followed by 97.19 (Jun 19 high).

Pound – 1.6120

Initial support at 1.6096 (Jul 6 low) followed by 1.5986 (Jun 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6429 (Jul 3 high) followed by 1.6546 (July 1 Level).

Australian Dollar – 0.7885

Initial support at 0.7880 (July 6 low) followed by the 0.7790 (May 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8107 (Jul 03 high) followed by 0.8155 (Jul 1 high).

Gold – 923

Initial support at 913 (June 23 low) followed by 906 (May 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 934 (Jul 3 high) followed by 948 (June 26 high).

Published on  Thu, Jul 9 2009, 00:28 GMT