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Daily Forex Outlook

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UK GDP Drops Fastest In 50 Years

Thu, Jul 2 2009, 01:17 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

Easy Forex

UK GDP Drops Fastest In 50 Years

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) enjoyed gains as optimism was dampened by a dramatic slump in Consumer Confidence in June. Forecast at 55.4 vs. 54.9 previously, the 49.3 reading led to a sharp sell off in Oil which had hit Year highs in Asia. This in turn led to commodity currencies such as the CAD being sold. Crude Oil closes down $1.60 to close the day at $79.89. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 9 points or -0.49% and the Dow Jones was down -82 points or -0.97%. Looking ahead, ISM Manufacturing June forecast at 44.5 vs. 42.8 previously. Also released, ADP Employment Report forecast at -393K vs. -532K. May Pending Home Sales are forecast flat 0% vs. +6.7% previously.

The Euro (EUR) tested 1.4000 but managed to shrug off heavy GBP/USD falls post GDP. EU Inflation fell 0.1% y/y in June. German Unemployment rises to 8.3% as expected. EUR/JPY buying supported on dips. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4000 and a high of 1.4153 before closing at 1.4040. Looking ahead, German Retail Sales forecast at -0.1% in May. June PMI Manufacturing is forecast at 42.4 vs. 40.7 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was volatile but was most sold during the day as investors still buy USD/JPY on dips and the crosses rallied in Asia. Weak US stocks hurt the Crosses but the USD/JPY managed to close above 96 in a technically significant bullish close. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.31 and a high of 96.52 before closing the day around 96.20 in the New York session. UPDATE Q2 TANKAN SURVEY -48 vs. -43 forecast.

The Sterling (GBP) broke resistance to surge to fresh year highs above 1.6700 in Asia as UK house Prices rose 0.9% vs. -0.5% forecast. In Europe, the downgrade of UK Q1 GDP to -2.4% vs. -1.9% initially caused a massive reversal of the pounds fortunes. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6422 and a high of 1.6745 before closing the day at 1.6465 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PMI Manufacturing is forecast at 46.5 vs. 45.4.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied with the Nikkei in Asia but failed at the 0.8150 resistance before falling as US consumer confidence slumped in June. Weak Stocks and Oil hampered progress but the AUD remained very well supported above 0.8000. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8039 and a high of 0.8156 before closing the US session at 0.8080. UPDATE May Retail Sales at 1.0% vs. 0.5% forecast.

Gold (XAU) dropped as USD strength combined with Oil weakness to break $930 support. Overall trading with a low of USD$921 and high of USD$946 before ending the New York session at USD$928 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.4035

Initial support at 1.3983 (Jun 29 low) followed by 1.3827 (Jun 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4178 (Jun 11 high) followed by 1.4267 (Jun 5 high)

Yen – 96.25

Initial support is located at 94.45 (Jun 1 low) followed by 93.86 (May 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 96.57 (Jun 25 high) followed by 97.19 (Jun 19 high).

Pound – 1.6475

Initial support at 1.6189 (Jun 18) followed by 1.6041 (Resistance Nov 6). Initial resistance is now at 1.6830 (Fibo Level) followed by 1.7198 (Oct 21 High).

Australian Dollar – 0.8075

Initial support at 0.7918 (Jun 24 low) followed by the 0.7790 (Jun 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8263 (Jun 3 high) followed by 0.8378 (Sep 26 high).

Gold – 928

Initial support at 912 (Fibo level low) followed by 906 (May 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 948 (Jun 26 high) followed by 965 (June 10 high).

Published on  Thu, Jul 2 2009, 01:20 GMT