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Daily Forex Outlook

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FOMC helps USD Recover

Thu, Jun 25 2009, 02:42 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

Easy Forex

FOMC helps USD Recover

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) continued to trade in a wide range with the market selling USD ahead of the FOMC only to buy them back after a less dovish than expected statement. Adding to USD strength was reports that the SNB was intervening on CHF through USD/CHF in a dramatic move yesterday. Weak stocks in the US let the USD keep most of the gains into the US close. Crude Oil closes down $0.70 to close the day at $68.50. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 27 points or 1.55% and the Dow Jones was down -23 points or -0.28%. Looking ahead, Weekly jobless claims are forecast at 600 vs. 608K previously. Also released, Final GDP Q1 forecast to remain at -5.7% q/q.

The Euro (EUR) traded above 1.4100 as the Euro hit highs in Early Europe before falling as the USD was supported by a good Treasury auction and secondly by the FOMC comments excluding deflation talk. Stocks and Oil continue to underpin the Euro going forward. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3888 and a high of 1.4140 before closing at 1.3940. Looking ahead, April Industrial Orders are forecast at 0.0% vs. -0.8% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) popped above 96 after the USD FOMC boost. Crosses were well supported during the day although weak stocks saw them finish roughly flat. Stock market losses are hurting the uptrend seen in the AUD/JPY which risks further pullback as investor optimism wanes. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.06 and a high of 96.08 before closing the day around 95.60 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June Nationwide Core CPI forecast at -1.2% y/y.

The Sterling (GBP) was well supported by investors but USD strength won in the end pushing the pair from 1.6600 to 1.6400 late in the US session. The lack of expansion in US Treasury Buying from the FED supported the dollar post FOMC. EUR/GBP slipped back under 0.8500. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6366 and a high of 1.6604 before closing the day at 1.6400 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) had a volatile day trading above 0.8000 in Europe before slumping with the rest of the majors. AUD/JPY dip buying supported with Japanese investors still chasing the highest yielding currency in the market. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7927 and a high of 0.8057 before closing the US session at 0.7965.

Gold (XAU) surged on USD concerns pre FOMC before easing as expansion of the FED bond buying programming failed to materialize. Overall trading with a low of USD$943 and high of USD$922 before ending the New York session at USD$932 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3930

Initial support at 1.3880 (Jun 24 support) followed by 1.3830 (Jun 22 support). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4000 (Key level) followed by 1.4060 (Jun 24 resistance)

Yen – 95.70

Initial support is located at 95.33 (Jun 5 low) followed by 96.52 (Jun 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 96.50 (Projected Jun 25 resistance high) followed by 98.89 (Jun 5 high).

Pound – 1.6420

Initial support at 1.6360 (Jun 24 resistance) followed by 1.6305 (Jun 24 hourly support). Initial resistance is now at 1.6662 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.6739 (61.8% retrace of Last years fall).

Australian Dollar – 0.7965

Initial support at 0.7855 (Jun support) followed by the 0.7790 (Jun 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8055 (Jun 24 resistance high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).

Gold – 931

Initial support at 916 (May 10 low) followed by 900 (Key level). Initial resistance is now at 940 (Jun 24 resistance) followed by 965 (June resistance).

Published on  Thu, Jun 25 2009, 02:46 GMT