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Daily Forex Outlook

Positive end to the Week

Mon, May 4 2009, 01:46 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

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Positive end to the Week

• U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was once again at the mercy of the equity markets which managed to make small gains into the weekend and pressured the Dollar lower. ISM Manufacturing managed to jump to 40.1 in April vs. 36.3 previously. US Factory Orders fell -0.95 in March. Crude Oil was up $2.08 ending the New York session at $53.20 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 2 points or 0.11% and the Dow Jones was up 44 points or 0.54%. Looking ahead, Pending Home Sales March forecast at 0% vs. 2.1% previously.

• The Euro (EUR) managed small gains against the USD into the weekend. EUR/JPY provided much needed support to keep the Euro close to 1.3300. Volumes were lower than usual as most of Europe was away for May Day Holidays. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3228 and a high of 1.3329 before closing at 1.3265. Looking ahead, March German Retail Sales forecast at -0.1% vs. -0.2%.

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to weaken as the USD/JPY reclaimed the 99 level and most of the crosses led by GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY grinded higher. Optimism and weak Japanese data providing the motivation. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 98.73 and a high of 99.59 before closing the day around 99.36 in the New York session.

• The Sterling (GBP) used better than expected data to surged back towards 1.5000 and helped the EUR/GBP back towards 0.8900. UK PMI Manufacturing jumped to 42.9 vs. 39.5 previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4735 and a high of 1.4935 before closing the day at 1.4915 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April Halifax House Prices forecast at -1% vs. -1.9% previously.

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded back above 0.7300 as risk appetite pick up again. Strong Commodities and Economic data both added to buoyancy with the market now turning its attention to Tuesday’s RBA meeting. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7250 and a high of 0.7349 before closing the US session at 0.7305.

• Gold (XAU) was quiet into the weekend with a small rally fading back to opening levels. Overall trading with a low of USD$880 and high of USD$890 before ending the New York session at USD$885 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

• Euro – 1.3275

Initial support at 1.3121 (Apr 29 low) followed by 1.2964 (Apr 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3392 (April 13 high) at followed by 1.3420 (Apr 7 high)

• Yen – 99.75

Initial support is located at 97.15 (Apr 30 low) followed by 96.39 (Apr 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.75 (Apr 17 high) followed by 100.43 (Apr 14 high).

• Pound – 1.4925

Initial support at 1.4704 (Apr 30 low) followed by 1.4609 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4947 (Apr 30 high) followed by 1.5068 (Apr 30 high).

• Australian Dollar – 0.7335

Initial support at 0.7049 (Apr 29 low) followed by the 0.6954 (Apr 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7384 (Apr 30 high) followed by 0.7738 (Oct 6 high).

• Gold – 887

Initial support at 878 (Apr 21 low) followed by 864 (Apr 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 906 (Apr 28 high) followed by 918 (Apr 27 high).

Published on  Mon, May 4 2009, 01:52 GMT

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