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Daily Forex Outlook

Downside Gaining Momentum as Concerns Return

Tue, Jan 13 2009, 04:07 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

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Downside Gaining Momentum as Concerns Return

• U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) made continued gains as safe haven demand for the USD reemerged. Equities were weak on recession concerns which spilled over to commodities. US earning begin this week and most are expecting weak results. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 32 points (-2.09%) and the Dow Jones was down 125 points (-1.46%). Crude Oil closed down -$3.24 ending the New York session at $37.59 per barrel. Looking ahead, Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks and the November Trade Balance is forecast at -51.3 Bn vs. -57.2 Bn previously.

• The Euro (EUR) continued to come under pressure as the market focuses on Thursday’s Rate Decision with 0.5% the consensus but some looking for a 0.75% cut. Also weighing on the Euro was concern over Ireland and Greece Sovereign debt been put on rating watch by S&P. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3291 and a high of 1.3445 before closing the day at 1.3365.

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) soared as US stocks continued to weaken and the USD/JPY broke through 90 dragging down all the crosses. Trading was quiet in Asia as Japan was away on a bank holiday. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.90 and a high of 90.25 before closing the day around 89.40 in the New York session. UPDATE November Current Account released down -65.9%. 

• The Sterling (GBP) continued to come under pressure as GBP/JPY selling forced the cable below 1.5000. Stops were hit under the pivot level and selling accelerated down to 1.48 supports. EUR/GBP jumped higher above 90. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4804 and a high of 1.5113 before closing the day at 1.4820 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November Trade Balance forecast at -7.5 Bn vs. -7.75Bn previously. 

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) cracked 0.700 in early trade and never got back above the key level falling sharply with commodities and stocks. AUD/JPY fell over 4% on the day as the markets risk aversion notched higher. Noted strong support at .6770 will prove crucial going forward.  Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6780 and a high of 0.7010 before closing the US session at 0.6810.

• Gold (XAU) moved lower falling sharply over 3% as oil dropped 5% and the USD strengthened. Overall trading with a low of USD$815 and high of USD$854 before ending the New York session at USD$820 an ounce.
  

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

• Euro – 1.3366
  Initial support at 1.3291 (Jan 6 low) followed by 1.3241 (0.618 of 1.2337-1.4719). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3489 (Jan 9 high) at followed by 1.3752 (Jan 8 high)

• Yen – 89.30
  Initial support is located at 89.89 (Jan 12) followed by 88.72 (Dec 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.67 (Jan 9 high) followed by 92.92 (Jan 8 high).

• Pound – 1.4815
  Initial support at 1.4813 (Jan 12 low) followed by 1.4505 (Jan 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5154 (Jan 12 high) followed by 1.5374 (Jan 8 high).

• Australian Dollar – 0.6810
  Initial support at 0.6759 (Dec 24 low) followed by the 0.6666 (Dec 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7042 (Jan 12 high) followed by 0.7142 (Jan 7 high).

• Gold – 820
  Initial support at 815 (Jan 12 low) followed by 802 (Dec 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 870 (Jan 6 high) followed by 884 (Jan 5 high).

Published on  Tue, Jan 13 2009, 04:10 GMT

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