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Daily Forex Outlook

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Markets rally on the first day of 2009

Mon, Jan 5 2009, 01:16 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

Easy Forex

Markets rally on the first day of 2009

• U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) started the year higher in a surprising move given the large rally in stocks and Oil. Economic data showed another contraction in US manufacturing with the December ISM slumping to 32.4 vs. 36.2 previously.  In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 55 points (3.50%) and the Dow Jones was up 258 points (2.94%). Crude Oil closed up $1.74 ending the New York session at $46.34 per barrel. Looking ahead, November Construction Spending is forecast at -1.3% vs. -1.2% previously.

• The Euro (EUR) lost ground as it fell off the 1.4000 handle and support from crosses dissipated. December PMI manufacturing was revised lower to 33.9 vs. 34.5. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3840 and a high of 1.4050 before closing the day at 1.3855. Looking ahead, January Sentix is expected at -44 vs. -42.3.

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) the yen was sold across the board as a major break to the topside on USD/JPY given the continued recovery in equity and debt markets. Potential to the topside is seen limited though as the Global economy further declines into recession in the coming months. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.72 and a high of 92.40 before closing the day around 92.21 in the New York session.

• The Sterling (GBP) rallied initially in early Asia before support faded and the pair slumped back to support at 1.45. Trading was volatile in thin markets with most looking to Monday as the first trading day of the year. November Mortgage approvals plummeted to 27K vs. 33K expected and December PMI was revised higher to 34.9 vs. 33.5 forecast.  Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4377 and a high of 1.4793 before closing the day at 1.4472 in the New York session.

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged higher tracking both the stocks and Oil, breaking above 0.7000 and testing month highs above 0.7100. Investors flocked back to the beaten down commodity currency although most analysts see upside potential as limited. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6918 and a high of 0.7105 before closing the US session at 0.7098.

• Gold (XAU) couldn’t sustain an early rally but losses were limited as Oil rallied and the conflict between Israel and Hamas continued. Overall trading with a low of USD$868 and high of USD$888 before ending the New York session at USD$874 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

• Euro – 1.3900
  Initial support at 1.3824 (Dec 19 low) followed by 1.3806 (38.2% retrace 1.2329 to 1.4719). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4069 (Jan 1 high) at followed by 1.4148 (Dec 31 high)

• Yen – 92.00
  Initial support is located at 90.61 (Jan 2 low) followed by 89.53 (Jan 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.88 (Dec 11 high) followed by 93 (Round Figure).

• Pound – 1.4540
  Initial support at 1.4354 (Dec 31 low) followed by 1.4044 (Jan 2002). Initial resistance is now at 1.4827 (Jan 2 high) followed by 1.5193 (Dec 26 low).

• Australian Dollar – 0.7120
  Initial support at 0.6849 (Dec 31 low) followed by the 0.6798 (Dec 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7139 (Dec 18 high) followed by 0.7240 (100 Day moving average).

• Gold – 874
  Initial support at 856 (Dec 31 low) followed by 843 (Dec 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 888 (Jan 1 high) followed by 890 (Dec 29 high).

Published on  Mon, Jan 5 2009, 01:20 GMT