Calm Markets with US away, Black Friday today

  • U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with US away on Thanksgiving Holidays the market saw compressed range bound trading. No data was released and US Stock markets were closed.  Crude Oil closed down $0.40 ending the New York session at $54.00 per barrel. Looking ahead, Black Friday shopping in the US today.

  • The Euro (EUR) kept to inside yesterday’s range as the market consolidated the move higher and waited for more direction. As the volatility decreases, there is potential for a retracement as risk aversion should also come off. On the data front, German Unemployment change in November beat expectations dropping -10k vs. -4K previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2862 and a high of 1.2967 before closing the day at 1.2895. Looking ahead, November CPI is expected at 2.3% vs. 3.2%. Also released October Eurozone Unemployment expected at 7.6% vs. 7.5% previously.

  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) was unable to break out of the 95-96 with little direction given that US stocks were closed. Released early Asia on Friday was a host of Economic data that points to more downside risks for Japan. October Household Spending was at -3.8% vs. -3.4% forecast. Retails Sales dropped -0.6% y/y and Industrial Production dropped -3.1% m/m. CPI dropped to 1.9%y/y as petrol hit 3 year lows in Japan. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.02 and a high of 95.70 before closing the day around 95.50 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Housing Starts are expected at 29.3 vs. 54.2 previously.

  • The Sterling (GBP) was the most volatile pair last night as 1.55 was once again tested before easing back to support at 1.5400. The November Consumer Confidence fell further to -38 vs. -36 previously. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.5316 and a high of 1.5511 before closing the day at 1.5410 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November CBI Orders forecast at -35 vs. -27 previous.

  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very buoyant as technical charts suggested that an uptrend could be underway as soon as resistance at .6600 was cleared away. The AUD/USD has not retraced much of its large losses over the last 2 months and a settling in financial markets could provide the catalyst to test the topside. Next week’s RBA meeting is the major event risk for the AUD before Christmas. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6480 and a high of 0.6601 before closing the US session at 0.6554.

  • Gold (XAU) was extremely quiet holding above the $810 support searching for new direction. Overall trading with a low of USD$811 and high of USD$817 before ending the New York session at USD$815 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Chart

  • Euro – 1.2895

Initial support at 1.2804 (Nov 25 low) followed by 1.2568 (Nov 24 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3081 (Nov 25 low) at followed by 1.3116 (Nov 5 high)

  • Yen – 95.55

Initial support is located at 94.94 (Nov 24 low) followed by 93.62 (Nov 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.43 (Nov 25 high) followed by 97.55 (Nov 17 high).

  • Pound – 1.5380

Initial support at 1.5176 (Nov 26 low) followed by 1.4984 (Nov 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5534 (Nov 34 level) followed by 1.5703 (Nov 11 high).

  • Australian Dollar – 0.6560

Initial support at 0.6333 (Nov 25 low) followed by the 0.6232 (Nov 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6618 (Nov 25 high) followed by 0.6696 (Nov 14 high).

  • Gold – 813

Initial support at 786 (Nov 24 low) followed by 743 (Nov 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 856 (Oct 15 high) followed by 871 (Oct 13).