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Daily Forex Outlook

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ECB and BoE cut rates, US Automakers in Focus

Fri, Dec 5 2008, 01:52 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

Easy Forex

ECB and BoE cut rates, US Automakers in Focus

• U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weakened across the board as aggressive rate cuts around the world helped to improve global sentiment. US stocks weakened in the final hour going into the Nonfarm Payroll number today. US data did little to help USD sentiment with Factory Orders falling -5.1% in October. US Automakers once again pleaded their case to congress leaders today warning of bankruptcy if no loans were given. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 46.82 points (-3.14%) and the Dow Jones was down 215 points (-2.15%). Crude Oil closed down $3.12 ending the New York session at $43.67 per barrel. Looking ahead, November Non-Farm Payrolls are expected at -340K vs. -240K. November Unemployment is expected at 6.8% vs. 6.5% previously.

• The Euro (EUR) early European weakness pre ECB saw support at 1.26 and 1.2550 tested before the larger than expected rate cut of 0.75% to 2.5% saw the Euro surge. Weak US data also helped to prop up the single currency and steady EUR/GBP took that pair to new highs. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2551 and a high of 1.2847 before closing the day at 1.2780. Looking ahead, German October Industrial Orders are seen +0.2% after falling -8% previously.

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the USD and GBP as US stocks sank on concerns that Automakers will fail to survive in current form. Support at 92 held but the market is looking very bearish as constant demand for Yen becomes the norm. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 92.09 and a high of 93.40 before closing the day around 92.30 in the New York session.

• The Sterling (GBP) came under extreme pressure as the market tested the key downside target of 1.5500 before recovering on USD weakness back to 1.48 after the market welcomed the positive steps to UK economy. BoE cut rates by 100bps to 2% vs. 3%. Also released Halifax House Price Index falling -2.6% vs. -1.0% expected.  Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4469 and a high of 1.4814 before closing the day at 1.4700 in the New York session.

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) kept to a very tight range largely ignoring the large movements in the majors. Data was mixed with October Trade Balance 2.952B vs. 1.6B forecast and Building Permits falling -5.4% vs. +0.7% expected. The market is ranging between 64-65 as weak commodities drag and improved risk sentiment buoys. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6396 and a high of 0.6535 before closing the US session at 0.6490.

• Gold (XAU) weakened as commodities were broadly softer lead by oil which fell to $43 a barrel. Support at $765 has held for 3 days. Overall trading with a low of USD$763.5 and high of USD$788 before ending the New York session at USD$767 an ounce.
  

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

• Euro – 1.2775

Initial support at 1.2550 (Dec 4 low) followed by 1.2423 (Nov 21 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2848 (Dec 4 low) at followed by 1.2968 (Nov 27 high)

• Yen – 92.50

Initial support is located at 92.44 (Dec 4 low) followed by 91.9 (Oct 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 93.82 (Dec 2 high) followed by 95.95 (Nov 26 high).

• Pound – 1.4680

Initial support at 1.4471 (Dec 4 low) followed by 1.4214 (Range Projection). Initial resistance is now at 1.4815 (Dec 4 high) followed by 1.5070 (Dec 2 high).

• Australian Dollar – 0.6485

Initial support at 0.6333 (Nov 25 low) followed by the 0.6232 (Nov 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6544 (Dec 1 high) followed by 0.6618 (Nov 25 high).

• Gold – 765

Initial support at 743 (Nov 21 low) followed by 725.4 (Nov 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 786.50 (Nov 25 high) followed by 830 (Oct 15 high).

Published on  Fri, Dec 5 2008, 01:56 GMT