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Daily Forex Outlook

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Market Still confident of Bailout going into the Weekend

Mon, Sep 29 2008, 03:27 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

Easy Forex

Market Still confident of Bailout going into the Weekend

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) another volatile day, weakness in Stocks and USD was reversed during the US session as Republicans came back to the table on the US bailout plan. Weak GDP was somewhat overlooked with the final Q2 figure downgraded to 2.8% from 3.3%. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment hit forecasts of 70.3. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 3 points (-0.15%) and the Dow Jones was up 121 points (1.10%). Crude Oil closed down $1.13 ending the New York session at $106.89 per barrel. Looking ahead, August PCE Index M/M forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.3%. August Personal Spending is expected at 0.2% unchanged from July.

The Euro (EUR) waxed and waned with USD strength. German Import Prices fell -0.8% slightly less than -1.0%. Traded in a volatile fashion although in a tight range. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4555 and a high of 1.4678 before closing the day at 1.4610 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Consumer Sentiment is seen unchanged at -19.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained impressively for the first part of the day as news about stalling in the US bailout plan lead Stocks markets down and risk aversion up. The Yen reversed gains in the US session on a turnaround in equities. Japan August Core CPI was unchanged at 2.4%. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 105.03 and a high of 106.57 before closing the day around 106.05 in the New York session. UPDATE AUGUST JAPAN RETAIL SALES +0.7%.

The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro, gaining on weak US GDP before reversing as US Bailout sentiment improved. Strong Gains in the GBP/JPY into the weekend underpinned the Cable.  Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.8335 and a high of 1.8469 before closing the day at 1.8445 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September GFK Consumer Confidence is expected at -39 from -36 previously. Also released the August Mortgage Lending data expected at 2.8 Billion vs. 3.23 Billion previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) dropped as risk aversion spiked and heavy AUD/JPY selling emerged during the Asian and European sessions. Was able to recover into the US close as stocks reversed direction and commodities remained buoyant. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8240 and a high of 0.8380 before closing the US session at 0.8320.

Gold (XAU) spiked higher as stocks weakened and risk aversion peaked. Above $900 was once again hard to maintain and gold eased back to more stable levels into the US close. Overall trading with a low of USD$868.20 and high of USD$911.15 before ending the New York session at USD$878 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.4520 
Initial support at 1.4555 (Sept 26 low) followed by 1.4437 (Sept 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4679 (Sept 26 high) at followed by 1.4768 (Sept 22 high).

Yen – 106.40
Initial support is located at 105.03 (Sept 26 low) followed by 103.54 (Sept 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 107.02 (Sep 25 high) followed by 107.47 (Sept 22 high).

Pound – 1.8320
Initial support at 1.8265 (Sept 26 low) followed by 1.8202 (38.2% retrace 1.7447 to 1.8668). Initial resistance is now at 1.8468 (Sep 26 high) followed by 1.8669 (Sep 25 High).

Australian Dollar – 0.8310
Initial support at 0.8240 (Sept 26 low) followed by the 0.8011 (Sep 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8380 (Sept 26 high) followed by 0.8469 (Sept 23 high).

Gold – 872
Initial support at 865.4 (Sept 25 low) followed by 825.12 (Sept 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 912.5 (Sep 26 high) followed by 919 (Sept 18 high).

Published on  Mon, Sep 29 2008, 03:43 GMT