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USD finds support from record drop in Oil

Wed, Jul 16 2008, 01:12 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

Easy Forex

USD finds support from record drop in Oil

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was under severe pressure most of yesterday as shares continued to slump driven by financial and energy stocks. Fed Chief Ben Bernanke commented on slowing growth and President Bush held a press conference to talk about his plans for offshore drilling with the combined effect of a severe pullback in Crude Oil falling over $9 per barrel at one point. The large drop in Oil allowed the dollar to pare some losses in the US session. US data included June PPI surging 1.8% m/m above expectations of 1.3% although Core PPI was a more moderate 0.2%. June Retail Sales were slightly weak at 0.1% m/m vs. forecasts of 0.4% although Core Retail sales came in 0.8%. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 2 points (0.13%) and the Dow Jones was down 92 points (-0.84%). Crude Oil closed down $6.44 ending the New York session at $138.74 per barrel. Looking ahead, June CPI is seen at 0.7% m/m with year on year at 4.5%. June Capacity Use is seen at 79.3 slightly down from 79.4 in May along with June Industrial Production expected flat at 0.0%. FED Chief Bernanke testifies again tonight. 

The Euro (EUR) made new record highs during the European session as US banking concerns intensified. The July German Zew survey stunned to the downside at -63.9% vs. expectations of -55%. The Euro shrugged off the poor data though trading above the 1.6000 level before a large slump in Crude Oil pushed the single currency lower. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5866 and a high of 1.6040 before closing the day at 1.5975 in the New York session. Looking ahead, the June HICP is seen at 0.4% after jumping 0.6% last month.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained across the board as risk aversion spiked high and carry trades were liquidated. The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.5% yesterday and reported a lower growth forecast this year in the BOJ monthly report. EUR/JPY fell significantly through supports at 168 and 167. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 104.16 and a high of 106.27 before closing the day around 105.06 in the New York session. 

The Sterling (GBP) broke through resistance at 2.0000 level surging to highs of 201.57 as USD weakness and UK inflation data supported. June CPI hit 3.8% vs. expectations of 3.6% will above the 3% mandate set out for the MPC. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9933 and a high of 2.0157 before closing the day at 2.0018 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June claimant count is seen at 10K up from 9K and May Unemployment Rate seen at unchanged at 5.3%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged to new post float highs as gold surged and the USD weakened. The July RBA meeting minutes were seen balanced with the central bank reiterating that current rates were appropriate and that demand should slow tempering inflation. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9709 and a high of 0.9849 before closing the day at 0.9779. Looking ahead, RBA Governor Stevens will be speaking on the challenges of monetary policy

Gold (XAU) continued to rally as safe haven flows increased on slumping stocks. Overall trading with a low of USD$968.70 and high of USD$988.15 ending the New York session at USD$977 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
 
 

Euro – 1.5905
Initial support at 1.5866 (July 15 low) followed by 1.5841 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now located 1.6038 (July 15 high) at followed by 1.6064 (1 month potential bull channel top).

Yen – 104.75
Initial support is located at 104.16 (July 15 low) followed by 103.69 (38.2% retracement of 0.9576-108.59). Initial resistance is now at 106.28 (July 15 high) followed by 106.82 (July 14 high).

Pound – 2.0055
Initial support at 1.9959 (July 11 low) followed by 1.9815 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0157 (July 15 high) followed by 2.0193 (Mar 27 high)

Australian Dollar – 0.9805
Initial support at 0.9708 (July 15 low) followed by 0.9664 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9849 (July 15 high) followed by 0.9895 (Bull channel top).

Gold – 975
Initial support at 968.4 (Jul 15 low) followed by 954.85 (Jul 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 988.4 (July 15 high) followed by 988.49 (76.4% retracement of the 1032.50-846.00 decline).

Published on  Wed, Jul 16 2008, 01:16 GMT