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Forex − USD Under Pressure as Stocks Rally

Tue, May 19 2009, 11:02 GMT
by Peter Rosentreich

ACM - Advanced Currency Markets  |  View company's profile

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Forex News and Events:

The risk rally continues. Risky assets recovered sharply yesterday after last week’s bout of selling. Sentiment received a further boost yesterday, as media reports suggested that US regulators decided to allow banks to just to repay the TARP funds, rather than requesting government approval. On the back of the report, banks that were recognized as not requiring additional capital are reported as scrambling to be in the first wave of repayers. US Treasury Secretary Geithner stated yesterday that the government would need to see recovery decisively established before starting to remove stimulus. In addition, he warned that the US recovery will be choppy and feel fragile for a time. However, the markets shrugged off the word of caution. The S&P500 closed up 3.0% finding support above its 21-day average and trend resistance; putting the focus back on the 1000 lvl (Asian and European markets are following Wall Streets lead). Credit spreads and market funding libor-ois spreads also improved, while volatility (fx and equity) declined.

Crude prices are trading in a textbook pattern and a close above $61bll would suggest further gains to $64.85bll. In line with the rally in commodities, correlated currencies have rallied back with USD/CAD again within striking distance of 1.1465 and AUDUSD saw a clear break above 0.7714 resistances. Despite the slightly lower than expected UK CPI data, the Sterling continues to make strong gains breaking 2009 highs. And let's not forget emerging markets. The orderly end to India’s democratic election has given EM a broad based boost. USDMXN broke below critical support at 12.9525 as capital flowed into EM equity markets and domestic economic data printed better than expected. The JPY was sold across the board as risk appetite surged back into the market and Vice-Finance Minister Sugimoto said yesterday that the MoF is monitoring FX markets closely. We believe structural issues in Japan will cap any prolonged Yen strength. Japan debt-to-GDP ratio will be the biggest in the G10 for decades to come and underpins Moody's upgrade of JGBs overnight.

Yesterday, Eurozone trade deficit was less than expected at -2.1bn versus expectations of -3.8bn as it rebounded for the second month in a row.. The improving trade deficit comes on the back of disappointing Q1 GDP figures for the Euro zone, Germany and France , A report in the Financial Times quotes official sources as saying that China and Brazil will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the USD. A strategy first reported at the recent G20 meeting in London. The report also states that while the introduction of the SDR as a global currency is impractical currently, bilateral deals between China and its trading partners would drive the controlled international use of the CNY. In turn, increasing China's economic and political clout globally. In Germany May’s increase in the ZEW index suggests that investors expect economic conditions to improve, however from an very low starting point. We remain cautious that a sudden and unsubstantiated adjustment highlights the market uncertainty and the optimistic overpricing. A pattern which could easily lead to sharp reverse. Ahead today, US housing starts are due at 1230 GMT. Fed's Stern speaks at 1715 GMT.

Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

08:00 NOK Mainland GDP, % q/q (y/y) Q1 -0.5 exp, -0.2 (0.4) prior
08:30 GBP CPI, % m/m (y/y) Apr 0.4 (2.4) exp, 0.2 (2.9) prior
08:30 GBP RPI, % m/m (y/y) Apr 0.0 (-1.4) exp, 0.0 (-0.4) prior
08:30 GBP RPIX, % m/m (y/y) Apr 0.5 (1.8) exp, 0.2 (2.2) prior
09:00 GBP GERMAN ZEW economic expectations index May 20.0 exp, 13.0 prior
09:00 EUR Construction output, % m/m (y/y wda) Mar -1.8 (-11.8) prior
09:00 EUR ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell participates in a panel discussion
12:30 USD Building permits, mn units saar Apr 0.530 exp, 0.516 prior
12:30 USD Housing starts, mn units saar Apr 0.530 exp, 0.510 prior
17:15 USD FRB of Minneapolis President Stern (FOMC non-voter) speaks

The Risk Today:

EurUsd German Zew comes out weaker than previous month and consensus however will this counter the dollar’s decline? We continue to see a strong resistance at 1.3646 with limits to be triggered 20pips higher at 1.3666. 1.3741 remains strong resistance and cap for the day.

GbpUsd Broad moves are dollar driven with a retracement on the back of the German Zew news. Pair is constructive under 1.5497, after which it heads for 1.5724 via 1.5565. On the downside stops to be triggered at 1.5447 and 1.5417 with a firm floor in at 1.5337.

UsdJpy Neckline in at 94.56 (strong support tested twice) as consolidation (Head and shoulders) seems to have ended, a break below would retest 3-month lows. Initial support at 96.19 and 95.63. On the upside 96.70 stands as initial resistance, with short term target at 97.85.

UsdChf last week’s intervention on the part of the SNB has subsided; we broke all stops and put in a new weekly bottom at 1.1092. On the upside we see a resistance at 1.1127 with a daily target at 1.1264, via 1.1165. Strong floor in at 1.1040.

Resistance and Support:

Published on  Tue, May 19 2009, 11:24 GMT

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