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Forex − Dollar ended last week higher after smaller−than−expected loss from Citigroup
Mon, Jul 21 2008, 12:25 GMT
by Peter Rosentreich
ACM - Advanced Currency Markets
Forex News and Events:
The Dollar rose on Friday, heading for its largest weekly gain versus the Euro in a month, after a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss from Citigroup eased worries about the US financial sector. Citi's results added to positive earnings news this week from Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase. That allowed the Dollar to regain some strength after slumping to a record low against the Euro on Tuesday. EurUsd rose only 0.18% to 1.5853, well off its record high of 1.6039 set on Tuesday.
UsdJpy was up 1.08% at 106.24. UsdChf rose 0.25% at 1.0225. GbpUsd rose 0.05% at 1.9983 after hitting 1.9907 low.
The Euro was capped by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's comments published on Friday that euro-zone growth is likely to be weak in the second and third quarters before staging a recovery. Risks to growth were on the downside, Trichet said in a joint interview with four European newspapers. For the week, EurUsd has lost 0.71%, while the GbpUsd rose 0.37% edging down from previous days on speculation the UK government would increase borrowing. Analysts said despite the Dollar's recovery on Friday, sentiment on the currency was still shaky.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
00:00 JPY Oceans Day holiday in Japan
07:15 CHF June Producer/Import Price 0.6% vs 1.2% (MoM)
07:15 CHF June Producer/Import Price 4.5% vs 3.9% (YoY)
14:00 USD June Lead indicators -0.1% vs 0.1%
The Risk Today:
EurUsd Market hit 1.6039 high last week. This marks initial resistance over 1.6000 Pivot point resistance. A break there would open the way to key resistance 1.6200. On the downtrend, return below 1.5800 will undermine the recent uptrend. Any weakness may bring back 1.5400 – 1.5800 consolidation range. Below, strong support holds 1.5304 13th June low.
GbpUsd Cable is again in 1.9400 – 2.0000 trading range. It hit 2.0158 high last week. Key level holds again 2.0100. On the downside, only a return below 1.9649 might bring again focus on 1.9337 January low and 1.9105 (50% retracement of 1.7049 – 2.1162 advance). Initial support holds 1.9649 July 7th low. Strong support holds 1.9363 20th February and 14th May low.
UsdJpy Last week profit taking pushed the market back into 100 – 104 consolidation trading range and put 100 level on sight. Friday strong Dollar rebound put focus over 105 and mid-June 108.59 resistance and 110.10 strong resistance (Trendline). Further advance would open the way toward 111.92 early January high.
UsdChf Market hit 1.0013 last week. Further weakness below 1.0000 may open the way toward 0.9637 17th March low. Renewed strength over 1.0200 would reopen the 1.0200 – 1.0600 consolidation range. Initial resistance holds 1.0353 9th July high.
Resistance and Support:
| EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY | USDCHF |
| 1.6200 T | 2.1162 S | 111.92 K | 1.1191 K |
| 1.6039 M | 2.0158 M | 110.10 T | 1.0625 T |
| 1.6000 K | 2.0100 K | 105.66 M | 1.0353 S |
| 14:04 | 1.9915 | 106.65 | 1.022 |
| 1.5800 S | 2.0000 S | 103.92 M | 1.0013 M |
| 1.5304 S | 1.9649 S | 102.73 S | 1.0000 P |
| 1.5000 K | 1.9337 T | 100.00 P | 0.9637 K |
Published on Mon, Jul 21 2008, 12:32 GMT
Archive
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