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Daily Analysis
The Sterling continues to rise as economists forecast the worst is over
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 11:27 GMT
by Benny Menashe
Finotec Group Inc. | View company's profile
| EUR/USD | USD/JPY | GBP/USD | USD/CHF | |
| 1.4200(M) | 96.25(M) | 1.6745(S) | 1.1030(M) | |
| Resistance | 1.4165(M) | 96.15(M) | 1.6630(M) | 1.1020(M) |
| 1.4125(M) | 95.90(M) | 1.6585(M) | 1.0955(M) | |
| 1.4065(M) | 94.85(M) | 1.6530(M) | 1.0840(M) | |
| Support | 1.4005(M) | 94.70(M) | 1.6485(M) | 1.0800(M) |
| 1.3965(M) | 94.30(M) | 1.6400(M) | 1.0730(M) |
The British Pound rose against a broadly weaker greenback and edged higher against the euro on Friday, in line with gains in perceived riskier currencies while solid UK data continued to support the UK currency. The UK consumer confidence held steady in July at -25, showing Brits were more upbeat on the economy as a whole, though less upbeat on their own finances the latest GfK/NOP survey showed on Friday. The decision will be announced on Thursday and the market will be looking to see whether or not the central bank opts to raise its quantitative easing target or shelve its asset-buying scheme which aimed to boost lending and economic activity. The GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.6570 as of 10:30am, London Time.
The euro may weaken to 82.36 British pence should the 16-nation currency close below so called support at 85.09 pence, RBC Capital Markets said, citing trading patterns. The level of 85.09 pence represents support on an ascending trend line that connects the euro’s lows of Oct. 20 and June 22, according to RBC’s chart. Europe’s single currency yesterday closed below initial support at 85.71 pence, which signals a “bearish” short-term reversal, George Davis, chief technical analyst at RBC, wrote yesterday in a note to clients. Support refers to a level where buy orders may be clustered. The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8517 as of 10:46am, London Time.
The U.S. economy probably shrank at a slower pace in the second quarter, a sign the worst recession in half a century is winding down, economists said before a report today. Most of the Fed’s 12 regional banks reported a slower pace of economic decline in June and July, the central bank’s regional survey of activity showed this week. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress last week that there were “tentative signs of stabilization.” “With inventory levels in an ultra lean state, businesses should start adding inventories in the second half of the year as the economy begins to show signs of life,” said Ellen Zentner, senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.
Today's Economic Events
| Time | Event | Currency/Country | Period | Previous | Forecast | Significance | Actual |
| 14:00 | NAPM - Milwaukee | United States | 50 | 4 | |||
| 13:45 | Chicago PMI | United States | 39.9 | 2 | |||
| 12:30 | GDP (M-o-M) | Canada | Monthly | -0.1 | 3 | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Annualised | United States | -5.5 | 2 | |||
| 12:30 | Personal Consumption Expenditure (Q-o-Q) | United States | Quarterly | 1.4 | 4 | ||
| 12:30 | Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (Q-o-Q) | United States | Quarterly | 1.6 | 4 | ||
| 12:30 | Employment Cost Index | United States | 0.3 | 3 | |||
| 9:30 | KOF Swiss Leading Indicator | Switzerland | -1.65 | 2 | |||
| 9:00 | Unemployment Rate | Eurozone | 9.5 | 2 | |||
| 6:00 | Retail Sales (M-o-M) | Germany | Monthly | 2 | |||
| 5:00 | Housing Starts (Y-o-Y) | Japan | Yearly | -30.8 | -30.6 | 2 | -32.4 |
| 5:00 | Annualized Housing Starts | Japan | 0.758 | 2 | |||
| 5:00 | Construction Orders (Y-o-Y) | Japan | Yearly | -41.9 | 2 | ||
| 4:00 | Official Foreign Reserves | €/Eurozone | 392.21 | 3 | |||
| 3:15 | Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI | Japan | 48.2 | 3 | |||
| 1:30 | Private Sector Credit (M-o-M) | Australia | Monthly | -0.1 | 4 | ||
| 1:30 | Private Sector Credit (Y-o-Y) | Australia | Yearly | 3.9 | 4 | ||
| 0:30 | TD Securities Inflation (M-o-M) | Australia | Monthly | 0.4 | 3 | ||
| 0:30 | TD Securities Inflation (Y-o-Y) | Australia | Yearly | 1.4 | 4 |
Published on Fri, Jul 31 2009, 11:33 GMT
Archive
- The British pound rises after public sector net borrowing data comes out
Published On Fri, Mar 19 2010, 12:38 GMT - Sterling rises as unemployment drops and inflation maybe on its way up
Published On Thu, Mar 18 2010, 11:59 GMT - The Dollar drops as the Fed keeps interest rates on hold
Published On Wed, Mar 17 2010, 12:18 GMT - Sterling rises but sentiment remains downward below $1.50
Published On Fri, Mar 12 2010, 12:34 GMT - Sterling falls as manufacturing production comes out worse than expected
Published On Thu, Mar 11 2010, 12:36 GMT
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