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Daily Analysis

Yen surges as Carry Trades unwind

Fri, Sep 5 2008, 11:02 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	GBP/USD	USD/CHF
	1.4665	108.55	1.789	1.1605
Resistance	1.462	107.85	1.7855	1.146
	1.4545	107.6	1.7685	1.12
	1.422	106.5	1.754	1.109
Support	1.4125	105.75	1.742	1.103
	1.4015	105.65	1.723	1.097

The Yen surged to its highest level in over a year against the Euro as investors unwound positions in higher yielding currencies. Pessimism over the global economy has caused increased selling of assets that give high returns. So called carry traders have pulled out of their positions as global stock markets have dipped, pushing the Yen higher. After the Euro fell 3.6% against the Yen on Thursday, the EUR/JPY hit a 13 month low Friday. Yesterday’s drop was the largest one day drop since the currency of the euro zone was introduced. The EUR/JPY was trading at 151.68 at 8.15am GMT from a 13 month low of 150.60 earlier on Friday.
Meanwhile eyes will be on the US later on Friday as key employment data is released. The expectation is that the US probably lost jobs in August for the 8th straight month with analysts predicting August payroll fall of 75,000. The US unemployment rate will be reported at 12.30 GMT with estimates ranging from 5.5 to 5.9 per cent. This data will be vital in determining whether the US can stage a recovery.
There were more woes for the pound as the Bank of England kept rates on hold yesterday. The Monetary Policy Committee had a difficult task fighting impending recession and surging inflation. Keeping the bench mark interest rate at 5% was in line with analysts’ expectations but will likely keep economic recovery on hold for the time being. ``Sterling is really seen as the currency-market dog, if you like, in being seen to be sold for any reason you can possibly think of,'' said senior strategist at Rabobank International. ``It is difficult to find too many ways to be positive about sterling.'' Sterling had been pushed lower an HBOS report indicated that house prices fell for the 5th straight month. At 8.42 am GMT sterling was trading at 1.7624 against the dollar. 1 Euro was worth 1.4234 dollars at the same time.

Today's Economic Events

Time	Event	Currency	Period	Previous	Forecast	Significance
14:00	Ivey PMI	CAD	Aug	65.5	62.5	3
12:30	Non-farm Employment q/q	USD	Aug	-51K	-73K	3
12:30	Unemployment Rate	USD	Aug	5.70%	5.70%	3
12:30	Average Hourly Earnings m/m	USD	Aug	0.30%	0.30%	2
11:00	Employment Change	CAD	Aug	-55.2K	8.0K	3
11:00	Unemployment Rate	CAD	Aug	6.10%	6.20%	3
6:50	ECB President Trichet Speaks	EUR				2

Published on  Fri, Sep 5 2008, 11:07 GMT