Daily Analysis
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U.S Dollar falls on speculation that consumer spending slowed
Fri, Aug 29 2008, 12:19 GMT
by Benny Menashe
| EUR/USD | USD/JPY | GBP/USD | USD/CHF | |
| 1.491 | 110.3 | 1.849 | 1.1085 | |
| Resistance | 1.481 | 109.95 | 1.84 | 1.1025 |
| 1.476 | 109.35 | 1.8345 | 1.101 | |
| 1.4665 | 108.7 | 1.824 | 1.0885 | |
| Support | 1.4605 | 108.05 | 1.817 | 1.084 |
| 1.457 | 107.65 | 1.809 | 1.0745 |
The dollar fell against the euro, on speculation a U.S. government report will show growth in consumer spending slowed. The greenback also weakened against the yen as oil prices climbed on signs a storm will disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, increasing costs for the world's largest energy consumer. Americans, faced with rising unemployment, the largest increase in prices in 17 years and falling home values, are cutting back on big-ticket items like automobiles and furniture. The federal tax rebates, the bulk of which have already gone out, will no longer keep the biggest part of the economy going. ``The dollar has a weak bias,'' said Osao Iizuka, head of foreign exchange trading at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo, Japan's sixth-largest publicly traded lender. ``The unhealthy state of the U.S. economy is dictating the tempo for the dollar. A rise in oil prices is also a negative factor for growth.'' The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.4748 as of 7:43am, GMT.
The pound fell against the euro, headed for a monthly loss, after a private report showed consumer confidence held near a record low in August, strengthening the case for the Bank of England to lower interest rates. The Sterling traded near a record low against the euro after a central bank policy maker said lower interest rates are needed to avoid a recession. The pound headed for a 2.5 percent monthly decline versus the euro, the largest since March, after Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower said yesterday rates need to decline in an interview with Reuters. It was at 80.65 pence per euro from 80.37. It reached a record low of 80.99 pence on April 16. The GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.8293 as of 8:03am, GMT.
The Australian dollar headed for its biggest monthly loss in 22 years, on speculation the nation's interest-rate advantage over the U.S. will narrow. The currencies weakened after a government report showed yesterday the U.S. economy grew faster than economists expected in the second quarter. Australian dollar is the worst performer of the 16 most-traded currencies in August as traders bet the central bank will lower interest rates next week for the first time in seven years. The AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.8650 as of 8:06am, GMT.
Today's Economic Events
| Time | Event | Currency | Period | Previous | Forecast | Significance | Actual |
| 13:55 | Consumer Sentiment | USD | Jul | 61.7 | 2 | ||
| 13:45 | Chicago PMI | USD | Jul | 50.8 | 2 | ||
| 12:30 | GDP | CAD | Jul | -0.10% | 2 | ||
| 12:30 | PCE index m/m | USD | Jul | 0.30% | 2 | ||
| 12:30 | Personal Spending m/m | USD | Jul | 0.60% | 2 | ||
| 12:30 | Personal income | USD | Jul | 0.10% | 1 | ||
| 9:30 | Leading Index m/m | CHF | Jul | 0.9 | 2 | ||
| 9:00 | CPI m/m | EUR | Jul | 4.00% | 3.90% | 2 | 3.80% |
| 9:00 | Unemployment Rate | EUR | Jul | 7.30% | 7.30% | 1 | 7.30% |
| 8:00 | Italian Retail Sales m/m | EUR | Jul | 0.20% | 0.00% | 1 | -0.50% |
| 5:00 | Housing Starts | JPY | Jul | -16.70% | 14.00% | 1 | 19.00% |
| 1:30 | Credit Card Spending y/y | AUD | Jul | 0.40% | 0.50% | 2 | 0.50% |
| 0:50 | Industrial Production m/m | JPY | Jul | -2.20% | -0.50% | 2 | 0.90% |
| 0:50 | Retail Sales y/y | JPY | Jul | 0.30% | 1.30% | 2 | 1.90% |
| 0:35 | Unemployment Rate | JPY | Jul | 4.10% | 4.10% | 1 | 4.00% |
| 0:30 | Core CPI y/y | JPY | Jul | 1.60% | 1.70% | 2 | 1.50% |
| 0:30 | Overall Household Spending | JPY | Jul | -1.80% | 1.80% | 1 | -0.50% |
| 0:15 | Manufacturing PMI | JPY | Jul | 47 | 1 | 46.9 | |
| 0:00 | Consumer Confidence | GBP | Jul | -39 | -41 | 2 | -39 |
Published on Fri, Aug 29 2008, 12:30 GMT
Archive
- The Dollar gains as the markets tumble and investors seek a safe haven
Published On Fri, Jul 3 2009, 11:47 GMT - Dollar rises as the market are down and China still intends to use the greenback
Published On Thu, Jul 2 2009, 11:36 GMT - The YEN declines versus the Dollar and the Euro on Tankan Report
Published On Wed, Jul 1 2009, 11:45 GMT - Sterling rockets after good housing data and a weak Dollar
Published On Tue, Jun 30 2009, 11:30 GMT - The Dollar rises against most majors as China say the currency may still dominat
Published On Mon, Jun 29 2009, 10:33 GMT
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