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Daily Analysis

Dollar is steady, waiting for Retail Sales data

Tue, May 13 2008, 12:19 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

The Dollar was steady in the early trading, as investors wait for the retail sales data to decide if the Fed will keep on hold the interest rates in the next months. The Dollar was trading at 1.5554 against the Euro at 6:00am GMT. US retail sales are expected to show a dip of 0.1 percent in April due to a big drop in auto sales; excluding autos, sales are forecast to rise 0.2 percent, slightly higher than in March. Also, speeches by Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, are expected, while investors try to predict whether the US central bank will cut benchmark rates again next month or keep them on hold. “Players are not sure about investor appetite for risk, but they also seem less worried about credit market woes”, said a trader at a Japanese bank. “Market moves are technical, with lots of short positions that players want to cover. So the Dollar is more prone to test the upside than the downside.”

The Dollar dipped slightly from late US trade to 103.70 Yen, after reached the 104.00 level, as some market players were forced to cover short positions, due to the US currency’s rebound on Monday taking them by surprise. Dollar traded at 103.74 against the Yen at 6:00am GMT. The Euro trade was little changed versus the Japanese Yen; the Europe’s currency traded at 161.35 against the Yen at 6:00am GMT. The Sterling slide yesterday, as more data revealed the British economy is being hit by falling property prices. The Pound traded at 1.9546 against the Dollar and at 0.7956 against the Euro at 6:00am GMT. Investors are now awaiting data on British Consumer Prices in April, which is expected to show acceleration, boosting the Sterling.

As mentioned above, investors will be focused on the data coming from the US later today, concerning the speech of the Fed Chairman and the retail sales; a rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Also, today will be revealed the Australia’s Consumer Sentiment, which will boost the Australian Dollar, if it shows a positive data.

Today's Economic Events

Published on  Tue, May 13 2008, 12:27 GMT

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