Main news
- The Yen Falls to Three Month Low Vs. The Dollar
- Crude Oil Falls as Refineries Increase Output
Market Trend
Forex Outlook:
The dollar traded near a six-week high against the Euro on speculation job reports this week backed by the recent data will ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates this year. "We have the dollar strengthening into the end of the year," said Stephen Halmarick, co-head of economic and market analysis at Citigroup Australia in Sydney. Data this week "will signal the Fed is on hold for quite a number of months." The dollar traded at $1.3455 per euro at 3:27 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.3442 late in New York May 25, when it reached $1.3412, the highest since April 11. It will rise to $1.32 by year-end, Halmarick said. The U.S. currency was at 121.64 yen from 121.79 last week, when it reached 121.88, the most since Feb
The Japanese currency lose against the majors was triggered by the rise in the Asian stock markets despite speculation for a rate hike. The Yen traded for 121.80 against the dollar and 163.65 vs. the Euro."Japan's rates have nothing to do but rise," said Yuji Kameoka, a senior economist and currency analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. "The U.S. is just keeping the status quo of rates. This will put upward pressure on the yen against the dollar." Futures traders increased bets the yen will fall against the dollar. The difference in the number of wagers by speculators on a decline in the yen compared with those on a gain rose to 151,746 net short positions May 22, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington.
Gold: The precious metal prices in Asia were little changed near a two-month low amid speculation the dollar will strengthen further against the euro, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. "When the dollar strengthens, gold goes lower," Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services in Sydney, said by phone. "You might see some weakness." Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 90 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $655.10 an ounce and traded at $655.90 at 3:58 p.m. Sydney time.
Crude Oil: The black gold fell in New York on speculation U.S. fuel prices may ease as refiners increase output to meet summer demand and after oil workers in Nigeria ended a two-day strike. "Crude oil inventories are just too high in the U.S.," said Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. "Run rates are improving, we'll have to see whether demand for gasoline is strong enough to match the increase in runs." Crude oil for July delivery fell as much as 47 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $64.73 a barrel, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $64.86 at 3 p.m. in Singapore.
Pool Position
Economic Calendar
EUR/USD Daily Technical Reports
Spot Price: 1.3455
Technical Analysis:
The market stalled once again just short of 1.3400, producing a low around 1.3412/17 for the third session. Oversold daily studies are pointing up and the low readings on the ADX favour a corrective move, while the hourlies are neutral, but the down-trend of the last few weeks remains in play, so we will play the 1.3400/1.3500 range.
USD/JPY Daily Technical Reports
Spot Price: 121.70
Technical Analysis:
Friday"s dip to 120.85 was short-lived, as the price bounced towards 122.00, forming a bullish outside trading day. 122.00/20 remains formidable resistance and we will use this as a topside pivot. Daily studies are overbought but heading up, while the trend is higher, so we will buy a 121.00 dip, with a tight stop. Hourlies are neutral
GBP/USD Daily Technical Reports
Spot Price: 1.9845
Technical Analysis:
Prices have stalled for the third day around 1.9830 and we set fresh longs for a move back towards the May 19th high and psychological 2.0000 level, backed by highly oversold hourly studies and mixed, but net positive daily studies. Initial resistance comes in at 1.9895 and our strategy is to flat on a failure, or tighten the stop on a break.
USD/CHF Daily Technical Reports
Spot Price: 1.2270
Technical Analysis:
After stalling at 1.2330 last Monday the price spent the week consolidating below, with a 1.2240/45 base. Daily studies are edging lower and are now at marginally overbought levels, but the trend remains up, with an initial target at the 1.2350 retracement. Hourlies are neutral, so our strategy is to trade the 1.2330/1.2240 range.
