Data and Analysis for Most Recent Release February 5, 2010

Legend: Net Long Net Short Position Change

Overview: Statistics for 02 02 2010  The total speculator position of long the dollar and short something else flipped during the past week with speculators now long the USD and short something else by 44,858 contracts. For many months the total USD short was in excess of 200,000 contracts, and approached 300,000 contracts on several occasions. The biggest speculator long is in the dollar index, long 46,217 contracts, followed by the pound 43,969 contracts and the Euro 40,538 contracts. The netl open interest during the period was up by 10,853 contracts, and would have been larger had not there been some serious liquidation in the AUD and the Cad. The Euro market versus the dollar in particular, has had a big sell off but we have not seen the big build up in large spec positions. This would imply there has been large selling by international bankers or central banks. The markets with the largest long positions are the Cad 40.9%, the Swiss Franc 28.6% and the Aud at 27.9%. The largest spec shorts are in the SF 36.3%, the pound 27.6% and the yen 23.4%. The currencies with the biggest large spec longs, the DI 77% and the NZD at 71.6%. The biggest large spec short position is in the pound, 47.8% followed by the SF at 30.7%.

Analysis: The open interest (OI) grew by almost 12% during the reporting period as the dollar index became the speculators favorite long. The large specs are now long 7.4 to 1 long. Large specs were the biggest weekly participants increasing both longs and shorts. The small spec, almost a 3 to 1 long, peeled out of both their longs and shorts.

Analysis: The OI continued to climb but most was in the spreading category (buying one contract and selling another) a category that has little impact of prices.The large spec is a little over a 2 to 1 short, and the small spec is very evenly balanced. The change in the OI has not been that large considering the change in price. This implies large stealth participation, perhaps central bankers, who have put pressure on the Euro.

Analysis: Both groups of speculators continue to be sellers of the pound. The large spec is now a 3+ to 1 short and made a big addition to the position during the period. The OI increased more in the pound than the Euro during the period. The trade on Wednesday and Thursday, following the cut off of the report, showed a large increase in the OI.

Analysis: The large specs and the commercials were trading places during the period. The large specs flipped from a short to a long and the commercial went from a long to a modest short. Usually the small spec and the large spec are on the same side of the market but this is not the case with the yen as the small specs are short and the big guy long.

Analysis: Like the yen the large specs and the commercials flipped their positions during the period. The large spec is now short the SF, and the commercial is long it. As a percentage of the total market the small spec has the biggest position in this small market. None of the groups has a big out of balance position long or short.

Analysis: The liquidation by the commodity currency longs continued with the large spec dumping more than 10,000 contracts during the period. He still remains about a 3 to 1 long. The small spec likewise reduced his exposure by liquidating longs and increasing the shorts, but he is still holding a 2 to 1 long.

Analysis: The specs continue to reduce longs and increase their shorts in this very small market. Large specs have reduced their long to a mere 2 to 1 ratio. Small specs have never had a big portion of this market, but they have been pitching longs and adding to shorts.

Analysis: The OI contracts as the commodity currencies lose their glitter. Large specs did reduce their long AUD position by over 14,000 contracts during the period, but still remain a 3.6 to 1 long. Small specs are still long but they did sell a lot more contracts than they bought during the period.